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AP: "The Obama administration said
Thursday that a proposed Russian sale of fighter jets to Iran would
violate a U.N. arms embargo on Tehran, setting up another standoff
related to last year's nuclear negotiations. State Department spokesman
Mark Toner said transferring the Sukhoi-30 jets, comparable to American
F-15E fighter bombers, requires the U.N. Security Council's approval. The
U.S will raise the matter with Russia, Toner said, adding that all six
countries that negotiated July's landmark nuclear agreement with Iran
'should be fully aware of these restrictions.' The deal kept the arms ban
on Iran in place for up to another five years. Iran's defense minister
said last week that the Islamic Republic would purchase an unspecified
number of the Russian planes. Gen. Hossein Dehghan provided no timeline
for delivery, but said Iran would be involved in producing the
aircraft... The U.S. and its negotiating partners - Britain, China,
France, Germany and Russia - reached an understanding with Iran to phase
out U.N. bans on Iranian weapons deals and ballistic missiles work after
periods of good behavior. Both embargoes are still in effect, though U.S.
officials say Iran has conducted at least two ballistic missile tests
since last summer... Like the ballistic missiles work, U.S. officials say
the Russian plane sale wouldn't constitute a nuclear deal breach. But it
would amount to another in a long string of Iranian transgressions of
U.N. Security Council resolutions. Toner said the Sukhoi qualifies as
'combat aircraft' under the U.N. register of conventional arms. Sales of
these to Iran require the Security Council's approval 'in advance on a
case-by-case basis,' he said." http://t.uani.com/212UEpC
Reuters: "Iran has proposed a project
with Hungary to design and develop a small nuclear reactor that could be
sold across Asia and Africa and also built in the Islamic republic,
Tehran's top nuclear official said on Thursday. Iran's Ali Akbar Salehi
said he envisaged a joint pilot project with Hungary to design a
25-megawatt reactor and then a reactor of up to 100 megawatts, a size he
said would be marketable across Asia and Africa... 'One particular
project that I suggested was to see if we can... together design a small
reactor of 25 megawatts,' Salehi said. 'It was received well and we hope
that we can start this project, just on paper... Referring to the lifting
of international sanctions on Iran's economy last year, Salehi added: 'We
intend to fully utilize all commercial and technical opportunities,
including the pursuit of peaceful nuclear activities, emanating from this
deal.' Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited Tehran late last
year. Iran will build two more Russian-designed large reactors in
addition to its current single reactor at the Bushehr Nuclear Power
Plant, a project that could take a decade, Salehi said. 'After these
three reactors, we have made our decision that we would look into small
reactors,' he said. 'That is our strategy for the future. That takes time
(but) we need to develop these modular smaller reactors.'" http://t.uani.com/1PWsXEt
AFP: "Iranian clerics used their
last Friday prayer sermons before key polls next week to urge the
faithful to elect candidates loyal to the Islamic revolution and hostile
to the United States. They accused Western media of attempting to sway
voters against the revolution's supporters in next Friday's twin
elections to parliament and the Assembly of Experts, the body which
elects and supervises Iran's supreme leader. 'Today, they name the
pillars of the revolution and ask people not to vote for them, and then
name others and call for their election,' complained Tehran prayer leader
Ayatollah Kazem Sedighi. 'Revolutionary Muslims should do the opposite.'
In Iran's second city Mashhad, prayer leader Mohammad Bagher Farzaneh
urged the faithful to elect members of parliament who have 'Death the
America' written 'on their foreheads', the ISNA news agency reported. In
the southwestern city of Ahvaz, the prayer leader urged people to vote
for 'champions of the fight against the United States,' the official IRNA
news agency said." http://t.uani.com/1QqfGTT
Nuclear
Program & Agreement
Free
Beacon: "The
United States has the authority to block new multi-billion dollar arms
deals between Iran and Russia though the administration is not expected
to exercise this authority, which was granted under United Nations
Security Council resolutions pertaining to the recently implemented
nuclear agreement. Senior Iranian and Russian officials held discussions
this week about inking a new arms pact expected to be worth about $8
billion. Iran has reportedly sent Moscow a 'shopping list' of various
arms and military hardware it is seeking to purchase. News of the latest
deal-which comes in addition to several other Iranian-Russian arms deals
inked over past months-drew ire from some on Capitol Hill, where
lawmakers remain concerned that Iran is exploiting economic sanctions
relief in order to carry out a massive military buildup. Obama
administration officials would not express an opinion on the latest arms
deal, but told the Washington Free Beacon that it would formerly register
any concerns should they arise in the future. However, critics of the
administration's outreach to Iran expressed skepticism. They maintain
that the White House is turning a blind eye to Iranian violations of the
nuclear accord in order to preserve diplomatic ties with the Islamic
Republic. 'The U.N. resolution to endorse the flawed Iran nuclear deal
actually gives the United States and other members of the Security
Council the power to review and legally block arms sales by Russia or
other actors to Iran,' Sen. Mark Kirk (R., Ill.), a critic of the nuclear
accord, told the Free Beacon. 'But as Russia and Iran further escalate their
use of indiscriminate military force in the Middle East, the
administration appears wholly unwilling to use this power.'" http://t.uani.com/1Lx1nff
Sanctions
Relief
Shana
(Iran): "Managing
Director of National Petrochemical Company (NPC) Marziyeh Shahdaei said
foreign firms are required to transfer modern technology when embarking
on joint ventures with Iran as a Swiss firm expressed readiness to
cooperate with Iran. 'NPC supports investment in the petrochemical
industry's upstream and downstream sectors and Swiss companies can
participate in its projects in line with this policy,' she told a
delegation from Sulzer company. Thorsen Winter Greze, a Sulzer senior
officer, said that the firm is interested in returning to Iran's
petrochemical projects. 'We are ready to cooperate in transfer of
technology to Iran's petrochemical complexes as well as in licensing of
Iranian companies,' he added. The Sulzer Executive Committee member also
said the firm has established ties with two Iranian petrochemical
companies following removal of sanctions." http://t.uani.com/1KuIVc2
Cihan
(China):
"Mercedes-Benz, a multinational division of the German manufacturer
Daimler AG, has denied reports suggesting that it plans to establish a
joint production line with Iran. 'It is not our main goal to inaugurate a
production line in Iran,' Mehr news agency quoted Steffen Baumann, an
official with Mercedes-Benz, as saying Feb. 17. He made the remarks on
the sidelines of a ceremony marking the start of a new era of cooperation
between Iran and the German company in Tehran. Speaking about how
Mercedes-Benz will cooperate with Iran in the post-sanctions era, Baumann
said the German manufacturer plans to sell completely built-up cars in
Iran and improve its after-sales services in the Islamic Republic. He
also said that Mercedes-Benz will gradually improve its footprint in the
country after studying the market. Meanwhile, he didn't rule out the
possibility of re-launching an assembly line in Iran." http://t.uani.com/1QoLQWh
Reuters: "Italian fashion house Roberto
Cavalli said on Friday it had opened its first shop in Iran following the
lifting of sanctions there earlier this year. Rich in natural resources
and with a young, well-educated population of about 80 million, some analysts
think Iran could be a potential goldmine for luxury goods companies.
Roberto Cavalli is among the first Italian brands to strike out in Tehran
with a store dedicated to its own label - the model favoured over
department store concessions by many luxury fashion companies as it
allows them to control their image and relationship with customers. The
store, with 350 square metres of floors made of brown quartzite mixed
with crystal dust, decked out with ponyskin carpets, sells women's, men's
and children's clothing and eyewear. 'We think Iran is set to become a
very interesting market for luxury products,' Cavalli CEO Renato Semerari
said... Leather goods maker Piquadro opened in a Tehran shopping centre
last year. Dolce & Gabbana, striking away from its usual form-fitting
creations, launched a hijab and abaya collection in January, but declined
to comment on whether it planned to do more business in Iran." http://t.uani.com/1QqeVdB
Nikkei
(Japan): "On
Feb. 5, Japan and Iran signed an investment pact. The arrangement is
designed to make it easier for Japanese companies to invest in Iran by
protecting them and their assets, and by improving regulatory
transparency. Fumio Kishida, Japan's foreign minister, said Iran has
great economic potential and expressed hope that the deal would
strengthen economic ties between the two countries. On top of the pact,
Japan and Iran are creating a framework to support investors. Nippon
Export and Investment Insurance and the Japan Bank for International
Cooperation will provide a total of $10 billion worth of loans, and the
funds will be guaranteed by the Iranian government. Japan hopes this will
help its companies better compete for contracts. Not to be outdone, South
Korea intends to hold a ministerial-level economic meeting with Iran by
the end of February. Seoul plans to send about 130 delegates, including
the trade minister and business leaders, to Iran. President Park Geun-hye
is considering visiting the country herself. South Korea's Posco is to
export its proprietary Finex iron-making technology to Iranian steelmaker
PKP, which aims to start building a blast furnace as early as 2017. The
facility, in the southeastern Iranian port city of Chabahar, is to have a
production capacity of 1.6 million tons a year. The total investment is
estimated at about $1.6 billion. Posco is considering taking a stake in
the steel mill operation, according to a source; the two companies plan
to sign a preliminary agreement in March." http://t.uani.com/1Tqnkmr
Trend: "Japanese Hitachi and German
Siemens are negotiating with Iran to resume their work on the project at
Fajr-e Jam petrochemical complex. A delegation from Hitachi would travel
to Iran in the coming days, while Siemens has announced its readiness to
resume construction of a power plant at Fajr-e Jam petrochemical
complex,' IRNA quoted Hossein Shamshiri, director of engineering and
development of the complex as saying on Feb.17. He said that the two
companies designed the power plant of Fajr-e Jam complex, but withdrew
from construction operations due to sanctions... Before sanctions,
Hitachi had an active presence in Iran, having provided Iran with gas
turbines and induction motors used in its oil and gas sector." http://t.uani.com/1TqoT3L
IRNA
(Iran): "An
official with Iranian Offshore Oil Company (IOOC) said the company has
shipped two consignments of gas condensate and liquefied petroleum gas to
Kenya. The cargoes were supplied from NGL refinery in Siri Island, said
Mohammad Reza Safari Rad quoted by Shana." http://t.uani.com/1RTjzX1
Syria
Conflict
AP: "The pursuit of peace in Syria
may require the United States and Iran to break new ground in their increasingly
comfortable diplomatic relationship, propelled by last year's nuclear
accord and their more recent prisoner swap. Another taboo could be
shattered soon: Military discussions. Iran may be just one of 17
countries invited to the first gathering Friday of a task force the U.S.
and Russia are leading to forge a temporary truce in Syria's civil war.
But for the Obama administration, Iran is like no other country at the
table. Washington considers Tehran the world's leading state sponsor of
terrorism. And American officials have long insisted they will not
cooperate militarily with an Iranian government that has deployed troops
to help keep Syrian President Bashar Assad in power and which continues
to fund and arm U.S.-designated terrorist groups such as Hamas and
Hezbollah. Administration officials insist Iran's presence at the talks
does not mean the two countries are 'cooperating or coordinating' on
military matters. Yet the ceasefire discussion in Geneva is intrinsically
military. And it could put the U.S. delegation in Geneva in the
uncomfortable position of poring over battlefield maps with members of
Iran's military or its Revolutionary Guard Corps." http://t.uani.com/1Qqgd8u
Iran-Saudi
Tensions
AP: "Saudi Arabia announced on
Friday it is halting deals worth $4 billion aimed at equipping and
supporting Lebanese security forces, a likely retaliation for the tiny
country's siding with Iran amid the Sunni kingdom's spat with the Shiite
powerhouse... One deal involves Saudi Arabia paying $3 billion to buy
French arms for the Lebanese military. The other involves a $1 billion
support deal for the Lebanese police. Saudi Arabia said it halted the
deals because of recent Lebanese positions 'which are not in line with
the brotherly relations between the two countries.' It did not elaborate.
However, it comes after Lebanese Foreign Minister Gibran Bassil declined
to support resolutions against Iran during two meetings of Arab and
Muslim foreign ministers. Bassil is the president of the right-wing
Christian Free Patriotic Movement, which is one of the strongest allies
of the Iran-backed militant Hezbollah group in Lebanon." http://t.uani.com/1KZgwef
Human
Rights
Independent: "Members of a metal band in
Iran have reportedly been jailed and face execution for blasphemy, it has
been reported. Trev McKendry, CEO of Metal Nation, claimed in a post on
Metal Nation News that the Iranian band Confess have been in prison since
November last year on the grounds of blasphemy and running an illegal
band and record label. Two of the members of Confess, Nikan Siyanor
Khosravi and Khosravi Arash Chemical Ilkhani, were reportedly held in
solitary confinement until 5 February when they were released on bail.
According to the Metal Nation News source, the men face between six
months and six years in prison, but if they are found guilty of blasphemy
they could be executed... The full charges levied against the band
reportedly include blasphemy; advertising against the system; forming and
running an illegal band and record label 'in the satanic metal & rock
music style'; writing anti-religious, atheist, political and anarchistic
lyrics; and conducting interviews with 'forbidden' foreign radio
stations." http://t.uani.com/1Qqjy7A
NYT: "Farah had been looking forward
to this week. The plan was to fly to the white, silky sands of Kish
Island, a small coral resort island in the Persian Gulf, about 10 miles
off the southern coast of Iran. There, Farah would attend an
international beach volleyball tournament that was being held in Iran for
the first time. It was not a simple excursion. Farah was to be among the
first women allowed inside a stadium in Iran to watch volleyball since
2012, when a law barring women from attending soccer games was expanded
to include volleyball, which was growing in popularity. In 2014, a
British-Iranian activist was jailed just for trying to attend a match.
That's why Farah, as an Iranian, is afraid to have her last name
published. But last spring, officials in Iran signaled their willingness
to end the ban, and the international volleyball federation assured
critics of its decision to hold an event in Iran that women would be
allowed to attend. The federation said Iranian volleyball officials had
given their word as well. So Farah and another woman from the advocacy
group Open Stadiums - an organization that for years has campaigned for
women to be allowed into stadiums in Iran - flew in hoping to watch the
matches early in the week, during qualifying. But when they arrived at the
free event, a plainclothes security officer stopped them at the gate.
'Honestly, I thought because here is a free-zone island, they would let
women go there, but they did not, despite all the promises,' Farah wrote
in an email. 'It's annoying that simple things like watching volleyball
is a crime here.' ... The federation must recognize that women should be
allowed to watch its sporting events, just as men are, and that it must
hold accountable national federations and event organizers that bar them.
Anything less than that violates the Olympic charter, which has a section
on antidiscrimination, and also the volleyball federation's own set of
antidiscrimination rules. If Iran cannot follow international standards
for equality, then it should not be awarded international sporting
events, like the one this week on Kish Island, or the Volleyball World
League matches scheduled to be played this summer in Tehran." http://t.uani.com/1WvRc02
ICHRI: "Security guards have prevented
women from watching the Beach Volleyball World Championship on Iran's
Kish Island for a third consecutive day with the international governing
body claiming 'misunderstandings.' The ban has continued despite initial
assurances by Iranian authorities that women would be allowed to attend
the events. The International Volleyball Federation (FIBV) only agreed
with Iran's request to host the event after receiving those assurances
that female fans would not be banned. But it has done nothing to ensure
that women, including the relatives and friends of competitors, could
watch the events from the stands, even though Iran reneged on its
assurances from the first day. According to eyewitnesses, women have been
banned every day of the championship. On Tuesday, some women watched the
games from the roof of a nearby cafe after being turned away from the
arena by security guards. Initially, officials said the ban was only a
'misunderstanding' by guards who were acting on their own 'personal
taste' against the Iranian Volleyball Federation's wish to comply with
international regulations. FIVB spokesman Richard Baker appeared to be
making excuses for Iran on Wednesday." http://t.uani.com/1PKPC8N
Guardian: "Traditionalist clerics often
invoke a masculine term to discourage women from running for political
office in Iran. While the question of gender isn't addressed in Iran's
electoral laws, candidates wishing to participate in the Iranian
political scene must be considered 'Rajol-e-siasi,' or statesmen. If the
political arena is legally defined as the purview of statesmen, women
have no business entering it, conservatives argue. This paradox helps
explain the status of female politicians in a system where only 49 women
have served in parliament since 1979, accounting for only 3% of all
parliamentary seats. To maintain any presence at all, female lawmakers
must reconcile conservative Islamic values with the social advancement of
their gender. Even if they possess an immaculate political and
theological pedigree, female politicians struggle to advance their
agendas without altering traditional women's roles as defined by male
Islamic jurists. When addressing basic issues such as workforce
participation, successful female lawmakers like conservative MP Soheila
Jelodarzadeh take care to only support part-time employment, prioritizing
women's roles as mothers and homemaker. Outspoken female parliamentarians
from across Iran's political spectrum have been ostracized, even jailed,
for their overly progressive views. Others have maintained a merely
ornamental presence in politics, voting along factional lines and against
their own interests as women." http://t.uani.com/1KZhdnV
Opinion
& Analysis
David
Albright & Serena Kelleher-Vergantini in ISIS: "Despite the passage of
Implementation Day, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was
unable to form a conclusion about the nuclear weapons related activities
that took place at a site in the Parchin Military Complex. Although the
IAEA found that Iran did have a nuclear weapons program at least until
2009, it made that conclusion without understanding large parts of Iran's
alleged work on nuclear weapons or establishing a precedent for its
inspectors to access military sites and personnel to verify past or
possibly on-going nuclear weapons-related activities. This uncertainty
undermines the credibility of its verification efforts. Is the IAEA going
to re-visit the Parchin site? If so, when? And will IAEA inspectors be
granted physical access to the site in order to take environmental
samples given that the ones taken by Iranians without the presence of
IAEA inspectors were inconclusive? Moreover, Iran has committed under the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) not to conduct high explosive
activities related to the development of a nuclear explosive device,
including the type of high explosive testing alleged to have occurred at
Parchin. The IAEA needs to demonstrate that it can verify these JCPOA
commitments, including accessing military sites like Parchin, where such
activities could routinely take place." http://t.uani.com/1SWk6Zw
Suzanne
Maloney in Brookings:
"'Never leave a buddy behind.' Secretary of State John Kerry
recently invoked that mantra, which was engrained during his military
service in Vietnam, in describing the effort to secure the release of
Americans held prisoner in Iran. He described this commitment as 'the
most sacred pledge you can make' at an event celebrating the release of
Washington Post correspondent Jason Rezaian after 18 months' detention in
Iran on trumped-up charges. There's only one problem: in the recently
concluded prisoner exchange between Washington and Tehran, Kerry did
leave someone behind-in fact, he left at least two Americans still
detained or unaccounted for in Iran. And in the relief and triumphalism
over the release of Rezaian and four other U.S. citizens, those Americans
still left in Iran have been all but forgotten. At least Kerry's speech
made passing reference to Robert Levinson, the retired FBI agent who went
missing in 2007 while on an ill-conceived CIA mission in Iran. And the
Obama administration has since stepped up its public campaign to press
for clues as to Levinson's whereabouts. Still, Levinson's family have
described themselves as 'devastated' that the prisoner exchange, which
they only learned of through the media, yielded no new details on what
happened to him after he was dispatched to the Iranian island of Kish as
part of a bizarre, unauthorized intelligence operation. The Levinson
family reportedly reached a $2.5 million settlement with the CIA several
years ago, and had the small satisfaction of seeing the CIA staffers who
concocted the rogue mission fired or disciplined. Still, they are owed a
far greater debt by a government that is trumpeting the fruits of its diplomacy
with Iran; the Levinsons and the American people deserve some certainty
from Tehran about the fate of a man missing for almost a decade as the
direct consequence of a government-contracted mission. But Levinson is
not the only American left behind. Amazingly, in their public remarks
about the prisoner exchange, neither Kerry nor President Obama bothered
to even mention the name of Siamak Namazi, a 44-year-old Iranian-American
who was jailed in Iran in October on unspecified charges and who remains behind
bars to this day. And the same media figures who championed Rezaian's
plight have devoted relatively sparse advocacy to Siamak's stint in
prison. Here I should acknowledge my bias: I have known Siamak
professionally for about 18 years and I consider him a friend. Many
others in Washington and around the world can say the same; thanks to
Siamak's varied professional activities and life-long fixation on the
country of his birth, he is known in every corner of the small, insular
world of Iran-obsessed pundits, academics, do-gooders, and business
people. Siamak's continuing unjust imprisonment underscores the very real
risks and tragic realities of dealing with authoritarian states such as
Iran. Even with a wide circle of colleagues and friends-including many
who have influence in Washington or Tehran-in a world rife with abuse and
human misery, the plight of one individual suffering at the hands of an
unjust government can fall through the cracks all too easily... So after
initially biting my tongue, this is my opening salvo on Siamak's behalf.
I suspect he might not want my advocacy; over the years, we've argued
plenty about Iranian politics and U.S. policy. And I can imagine he might
respond with a pointed reminder that an appeal on his behalf from an American
think tanker, particularly from someone who has on occasion expressed
criticism of the Iranian government, is hardly an exoneration in the eyes
of Iranian hardliners. But here's the thing: the forces that led to
Siamak's arrest are not susceptible to evidence. If they were, he would
never have been arrested in the first place, and he certainly would not
have spent four months behind bars in the notorious Evin Prison. Siamak's
detention exposes yet again the central enduring failing of Iran's
post-revolutionary system: the absence of rule of law. That is the reason
for Siamak's arrest-not his work for an Emirati oil company enmeshed in a
contract dispute with Tehran; not his consulting activities or his
advocacy of bilateral diplomacy; and certainly not the bogus smears
against his family (remarkably, published under a pseudonym by an
ostensibly reputable American publication even as Siamak was under
interrogation in Iran). As I wrote when Jason Rezaian was first seized,
there is no logic to Iran's abuses, and no justification. All these
explanations are attractive as defense mechanisms, a way to rationalize
each arrest as an isolated incident with identifiable, even if not
understandable, causes. It is, of course, a false comfort. As is the
canard that each arrest-each abuse of the basic rights of Iran's
citizens-can be attributed to Iranian hard-liners and the power struggle
that has defined the country's post-revolutionary politics. The
hard-liners are only a symptom. The problem is the nezam-the system-and
its engrained reliance on repression and a political culture of paranoia
with roots in Iran's pre-revolutionary history... Tehran owes all
Iranians something better than what they have today - a country where
their rights are protected. The only way that is going to happen is if
the names of those who are unjustly imprisoned are not forgotten." http://t.uani.com/1OjCRy1
Michael
Totten in World Affairs Journal: "Vox magazine just published a video on YouTube
narrated by Max Fisher that supposedly explains how the next Iranian
election could make history. He starts by saying that Iran is confusing
because it has 'an unelected Supreme Leader at the top' and a president
who is chosen in 'far from perfect' elections. 'So is Iran a
dictatorship, or is it a democracy?' he asks before answering, 'as it
turns out, it's both.' No, it's not. Max Fisher answered the question
correctly before he answered it. The head of state isn't elected. And his
description of the elections as 'far from perfect' is the kind of
condescending euphemism that's only ever used to describe somebody else's
problems. Let's leave aside the blatant vote-stealing in Iran's 2009
presidential election, when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was declared the winner
in districts that opposed him as overwhelmingly as San Francisco opposes
Dick Cheney. Nevermind that disgraceful episode. Elections in Iran are
rigged even when they aren't rigged. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
hand-picks everybody who runs for president. Moderates are rejected
routinely. Only the less-moderate of the moderates-the ones who won't
give Khamenei excessive heartburn if they win-are allowed to run at all.
Liberal and leftist candidates are rejected categorically. Imagine Dick
Cheney as the overlord of America allowing us to choose which one of his
friends will be in the co-pilot's seat. That's not democracy. That's not
even a fake democracy. The Iranian system is worse, though. The president
isn't even the co-pilot. He's not quite a figurehead. He can tinker with
a few things around the edges. But the country is run by the unelected
Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, and the Revolutionary Guard Corps,
which is officially designated as a terrorist organization. Fisher thinks
the upcoming election may be a game-changer, though, because the
so-called Assembly of Experts is an elected body, it will choose the next
Supreme Leader, and the current Supreme Leader acknowledges that he's
likely to die soon. Therefore, if 'moderates' win the election, the next
Supreme Leader will almost certainly be a moderate. That would be great.
Really, it would. I'd pop a champagne cork. Iran would still be a
dictatorship/democracy hybrid in Fisher's formulation, but at least it
would be a less extreme one. It could be like post-Maoist China, perhaps,
or post-Soviet Russia. Unfree, but no longer totalitarian. It would be
progress. No doubt about it. But 'moderates' in the Iranian regime aren't
moderate by any objective international definition. Everyone who gets to
run in the election for the Assembly of Expert will be hand-picked by the
Supreme Leader. And every single one of them will be an Islamic
theologian. That's what the Assembly of Experts is. A theocratic institution
of Islamic theologians... Vox uploaded the video to Facebook as well as
to YouTube, and the comments are overwhelmingly hostile. Huge numbers of
Iranian grownups are chiming in and schooling the Vox kids. It's
fascinating and educational-hopefully for Max Fisher as well as the rest
of us." http://t.uani.com/1mM5Gwz
Emily B.
Landau & Alon Levkowitz in TNI: "But one issue has been sorely missing from the
discussion: the prospect that Iran might continue important work on a
nuclear weapons capability beyond the bounds of the agreement, and even
beyond the borders of Iran itself. Indeed, there is a strong possibility
that Iran will continue to benefit from North Korea's nuclear advances,
and some of Iran's nuclear activities might take place in North Korea
itself, using the hermit state as a convenient backyard. For Iran to do
so would make perfect strategic sense. Iran has a clear interest in
latching onto North Korea's program-Pyongyang both has technology that
Tehran wants and seems to care only about being paid, as demonstrated by
the nuclear cooperation between North Korea and Syria. There is already
evidence of Iranian-North Korean cooperation in the ballistic missile
field, cooperation with implications that extend to the nuclear realm as
well. There's a history. The security relations between Iran and North
Korea began during the Iran-Iraq war, and since that time, their missile
and, later, nuclear cooperation has continued and expanded. In September
2012, for example, Iran and North Korea signed an agreement for
technological and scientific cooperation. A few years ago, they also
established the 'anti-hegemonic front.' The extensive cooperation between
the two states has, over the years, included mutual visits by top North
Korean and Iranian nuclear and missile scientists, including to Syria as
well. The official delegations, and exchanges of scientists, demonstrate
the wide range of relations between the two states. Missile technologies
developed by North Korea were assimilated in Iranian Shahab missiles, and
a failed missile test in Syria in 2007 caused the death of Syrian,
Iranian and North Korean experts. It is difficult to know the precise
extent of cooperation between Tehran and Pyongyang in the nuclear realm,
partly due to difficulties in the intelligence field-namely, collecting
hard evidence from the two countries-and partly due to the lack of incentive
on the part of the U.S. intelligence agencies to share findings that
might cause difficulties in the P5+1 framework. Still, it is known that
Iranians were present at some of North Korea's nuclear and missile tests,
and that North Korea built the reactor in Syria that was bombed in 2007,
which it is safe to assume that Iran at least had knowledge of, if not
more direct involvement. The Syrian-North Korean nuclear cooperation
demonstrates Pyongyang's willingness to sell its nuclear know-how and
hardware to the highest bidder. One could imagine that Pyongyang would be
willing to share with Iran its experience from four nuclear tests, for
the right price. After all, North Korea is in dire need of financial
assistance due to economic setbacks and strained relations with Beijing.
What does each state gain from the bilateral cooperation? Iran gets
nonconventional technologies and the expertise that it needs, while North
Korea benefits economically by selling its know-how. Moreover, for Iran
this opens a backdoor channel, conveniently beyond the bounds of
inspections and scrutiny, and the JCPOA itself. So Iran can make
necessary advances in North Korea, while ostensibly adhering to the
agreement with the P5+1. There is certainly enough in each country's
recent history for this to be an ongoing topic of investigation, so why
is so little attention paid to this danger? Why are the critics of the
JCPOA not talking about this concern? We don't have the answer, but North
Korea's fourth nuclear test, carried out in early January, and its more
recent satellite launch have given a boost to those that are asking
questions, and some in Congress have recently demanded that the Obama
administration reveal to Congress what it knows about the two countries'
nuclear cooperation. But when the P5+1 feel perfectly comfortable closing
the file on Iran's past weaponization work, despite the damning IAEA
report released in early December 2015, they do not inspire trust-not as
far as getting to the bottom of Iran's nuclear weapons work is concerned.
This issue cannot be ignored, as it could prove crucial in Iran's ongoing
drive to maintain a nuclear breakout capability. Beyond the evidence of
cooperation between the two countries that has already accumulated, these
bilateral ties should be watched very closely for the simple reason that
it makes perfect strategic and economic sense for the two to continue
what is obviously highly beneficial mutual collaboration." http://t.uani.com/1Vs9aR3
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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