Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Eye on Iran: With Alliances Strained, Obama Seeks to Reassure Gulf States on Iran

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Reuters: "President Barack Obama travels to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday with a familiar message: the United States will not abandon its Gulf allies in their struggle against Iran, a regional power they fear is seeking to undermine their security. Tired of what they see as a reduced commitment to old U.S. allies, riled by comments Obama made about them in a magazine interview last month and aware there will be a new president in January, Riyadh and its neighbours may not be ready to just take his word for it. 'We want to receive tangible reassurances from them,' said a senior Gulf official briefed on preparations for the meeting. Short of a formal defence treaty, an idea rejected before a previous summit, Riyadh and its allies hope to come away from their meeting with new missile defence systems. Obama wants to find a way for Gulf states and Iran to arrive at a 'cold peace' that douses sectarian tensions around the region and curbs the spread of Islamist militancy. Neither side is likely to get much more than partial satisfaction. Differences over how to assess and address what both the Gulf and United States describe as Iran's destabilising activities in the Middle East have been at the root of the bumpiest period in ties between Washington and the pro-West monarchies for decades. Sunni Muslim Gulf states fear the nuclear deal Washington and other world powers agreed with Shi'ite power Iran, and Obama's reluctance to get bogged down in the Middle East's complex array of disputes, has freed Tehran to act without inhibition... Obama has previously vowed to defend Gulf allies against any 'external attack', and the United States' military support role has allowed Saudi Arabia to maintain the campaign of an Arab coalition it has led against the Houthis in Yemen. But talks on the more tangible assurances demanded by Gulf officials are focused for now on improving ballistic missile defence systems, something long discussed but given more urgency by Iran's recent testing of new projectiles. 'They (the Americans) should provide something,' said the Gulf official briefed on preparations for the talks... 'It is important for the Americans to understand that we are not happy with the overtures that the United States has been prepared to make towards Iran at our expense,' said the Gulf official." http://t.uani.com/22KGDbU

AFP: "Iran has so far seen only around $3 billion in previously frozen assets returned since it struck a nuclear deal with world powers, US Secretary of State John Kerry said... 'Remember the debate over how much money Iran was going to get?' he said to delegates at a dinner hosted by the progressive pro-Israel group J Street. 'Sometimes you hear some of the presidential candidates putting out a mistaken figure of $155 billion. I never thought it would be that. 'Others thought it would be about $100 billion, because there was supposedly about $100 billion that was frozen and so forth,' he continued. 'We calculated it to be about $55 billion, when you really take a hard look at the economy and what is happening,' he said, giving the usual State Department estimate. 'Guess what folks. You know how much they have received to date? As I stand here tonight, about $3 billion.'" http://t.uani.com/1TgXLDB

Trend: "France's Airbus needs Washington's permission to reach a deal with Iran as 10 percent of the Airbus equipment is US-made, said Alain Vidalies, the French transport minister, on Apr. 18. 'We started talks with the US some time ago. The negotiations are at a very advanced stage now,' Vidalies said Apr. 18 at a press conference with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Akhoundi, Trend's correspondent reported from the event. Iran's President Hassan Rouhani visited Paris in January this year. During the visit, Iran and Airbus signed a $27 billion worth memorandum of understanding for aircraft purchase. Vidalies also says that banking problems still exist with Iran, although the Western sanctions on Iran were lifted in mid-January after implementation of the nuclear deal. Earlier today, Air France signed an agreement with Iran's state-owned airline known as Iran Air or Homa. The first Air France flight between Paris and Tehran in the past eight years landed in Tehran on Apr. 17, carrying Vidalies and a business delegation." http://t.uani.com/1YEXFXz

U.S.-Iran Relations

AP: "Secretary of State John Kerry will meet Iran's foreign minister this week amid Iranian complaints that it's not getting the sanctions relief it deserves under last year's landmark nuclear deal, the State Department said Monday. Kerry and Mohammad Javad Zarif will meet in New York on Tuesday before Kerry flies to Saudi Arabia to join President Barack Obama at a summit with Gulf Arab leaders, department spokesman John Kirby said. Meanwhile, Kirby said the department had sent letters to U.S. state and local officials advising them of changes to federal sanctions policy. The Kerry-Zarif meeting follows complaints from top Iranian leaders that the U.S. is not fulfilling its part of the nuclear agreement, in which Iran curbed its atomic program in exchange for sanctions relief. The U.S. insists it has met its obligations but is facing demands from foreign banks to make clear what transactions with Iran are legal and which are still punishable under remaining sanctions. 'We're obviously aware of these concerns that they have expressed about the status of sanctions relief,' Kirby said. 'And the secretary is very mindful that that topic will come up tomorrow, that that is very much on Foreign Minister Zarif's mind.'" http://t.uani.com/22KKqWE

Congressional Action

Reuters: "Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, urged President Barack Obama on Monday to 'definitively' rule out any sanctions workaround that might provide Iran direct or indirect access to the U.S. financial system or dollar. 'Instead of helping the regime get richer, the administration should hold it accountable for its continued ballistic missile tests, egregious human rights violations and support for terrorism,' the Republican congressional leader said in his strongest statement yet on the issue... Ryan said he was concerned there were 'at least four workarounds' that would allow Iran access to the U.S. currency, including dollar-denominated transactions, dollar-clearing, dollar-based conversions and dollar-related foreign currency transactions." http://t.uani.com/23I30V9

Sanctions Relief

Press TV (Iran): "Iran is yet to enter into serious talks with US aviation giant Boeing over the purchase of planes but new indications are appearing that show the country could soon get a dozen Boeing airplanes through Germany. Kianoush Ranjbar, the managing director of Ran Invest GmbH, told Press TV on Sunday that at least 12 Boeing planes will be leased to Iran. Ranjbar said the planes will be 737 and 767 models and will be leased to Iran's national flag-carrier Iran Air. He added that the planes will be used for direct flights from Iran to Germany as well as other long destinations. 'Discussions over the issue are currently underway in Tehran and will be finalized within the next few days,' Ranjbar told Press TV. The official further emphasized that planes are planned to be delivered to Iran during the next month visit to Tehran by the German Economy Minister and Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel - his second visit in less than six months. The implementation of the agreement will set the stage for wider cooperation between Iran and Germany in the area of tourism. Ranjbar was part of a trade delegation which is visiting Iran from Germany's northwestern state of Lower Saxony.  The delegation - which is led by Stephan Weil, the prime minister of Lower Saxony, arrived in the Iranian capital Tehran on Friday." http://t.uani.com/23WlFJA

IRNA (Iran): "Ministry of Roads and Urban Development said on Tuesday that Iran signed a contract with France to purchase three radars for Iranian airports. The contract was signed in presence of Minister of Roads and Urban Development Abbas Akhundi and French Minister of Transport Alain Vidalies in Tehran. The radars will be installed at control towers of airports of Tehran (Mehrabad), Shiraz and Bandar Abbas. Iran Airports and Air Navigation Company (IAANC) and French Thales Company signed the contract." http://t.uani.com/1SXaf0i

Saudi-Iran Tensions

Reuters: "Saudi Arabia's decision to scupper negotiations on a coordinated oil output freeze in Doha on Sunday seems to confirm a significant shift in the kingdom's oil policy. For decades, the kingdom has insisted it does not wield oil as a diplomatic weapon, but at the weekend it did just that as part of an intensifying conflict with Iran... Unlike other oil producers, which are seeking higher prices, Saudi Arabia appears willing to risk lower prices that will hurt its own economy in the belief they will hurt Iran more." http://t.uani.com/1VzGZmZ

Human Rights

Reuters: "An Iranian physicist imprisoned in Tehran since 2011 is suffering from life-threatening kidney cancer, the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran said on Monday. Omid Kokabee, 34, was arrested while on a visit to Iran from the United States, where he was studying physics at the University of Texas. He was charged with communicating with a hostile government and receiving illegitimate funds. His family has asked for his immediate release due to his severe health condition. 'The prison doctors were prescribing painkiller without even examining him,' an informed source was quoted as saying by the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, an independent organisation based in New York. 'It was only last week that Omid was diagnosed with cancer and now the cancerous tumour has spread all over his right kidney,' it said. Iranian judiciary officials have said Kokabee was convicted and sentenced to 10 years in jail and the Islamic Republic will not bow to international pressure calling for his release. Kokabee has said he had been tortured in prison, both physically and mentally, and forced to make confessions. In letters from Evin prison in 2011 and 2013, Kokabee wrote that his imprisonment was the result of his refusal to heed pressure by Iranian government to collaborate on a secret research project, most probably refering to Iran's nuclear programme." http://t.uani.com/1S822Ky

AFP: "Police in Iran's capital have a network of 7,000 undercover agents whose job is to inform on alleged moral transgressors in the Islamic republic, a top official said Monday. Bad veiling -- covering the head is mandatory for women in Iran -- and anti-social behaviour is among the crimes the force has been tasked with tackling. The men and women's 'undercover patrols will confront implicit transgressions in the city,' according to General Hossein Sajedinia, Tehran's police chief. 'Confronting bad hijab and removal of veils inside cars, driving recklessly, parading in the streets, harassing women and stopping noise pollution are the priorities' for the agents, he said Sajedinia's remarks were published by Mizan Online, the official news service for Iran's judiciary, along with pictures of himself and a large formation of plain-clothed agents in Tehran." http://t.uani.com/20TEVFM

Opinion & Analysis

Matthew Levitt in WSJ: "Iran seems to expect the Obama administration to provide benefits beyond those in the nuclear deal, including access to the U.S. financial system and the ability to change into dollars foreign currency transactions through U.S.-based banks. U.S. officials say that neither demand will be met. We live in a 'post-sanctions environment,' Mr. Seif said. This ignores the fact that sanctions remain in place over Iran's efforts to sponsor terrorism; its ballistic missile program; and its human rights abuses, which include executing minors and persecuting religious minorities. Mr. Seif appeared to dismiss concerns about those activities as old hat. 'If, according to our partners, it is our conduct which prevents international banks from engaging in business with us, they were fully aware of our conduct before signing. ... We have not changed.' That Iran has not changed is at the core of its problem, but that's not how Mr. Seif seemed to see it. Asked about the risks of unwittingly doing business with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is still targeted by Treasury sanctions, Mr. Seif said potential investors could engage Iranian companies that run checks to determine who they would be doing business with. The use of Iranian companies to hide the IRGC's involvement in business activities has been documented by the Treasury Department. And using in-country third parties to perform customer due diligence is seen as high-risk by international bodies that govern banking transactions. The bottom line is that Iran has yet to curb or stop the illicit conduct that makes it a pariah state and a financial risk. It enacted a law against terrorist financing last July, but that's done little to calm banks' fears because its government continues to support terrorism. Until those behaviors change, banks are likely to continue to see prohibitive reputational, regulatory, and other risks to doing business there. And the only country that can do anything about that is Iran." http://t.uani.com/1Sq95wT

Eric Lorber & Peter Feaver in FP: "Iran's ongoing provocative behavior brings the contradiction at the heart of the Iranian nuclear deal into sharp focus: How can we constrain Iran's provocative actions in other-than-nuclear-enrichment areas when we gave up so much of our leverage as a concession to get it to agree to enrichment restrictions? Congress will wrestle with this dilemma in important upcoming hearings, and while the contradiction was always recognized, the precise ways in which it might play out were obscured by the imprecision in the deal itself. That imprecision is now coming to the surface. In order to get a deal that had a chance of constraining Iran's nuclear ambitions, the United States had to make significant concessions on nuclear-related sanctions. At the time, the Obama administration sold the deal with the assurance that the United States would retain enough coercive leverage on Iran to keep the regime in check on these other issues, including the Islamic Republic's support for international terrorism, human rights abuses, and the development of its ballistic missile programs. And administration spokespeople emphasized again and again that they would be vigilant and vigorous in wielding this coercive leverage. In the past few weeks, however, the administration has signaled that it is on the cusp of making an additional and unexpected concession to Iran that significantly weakens remaining U.S. leverage: giving Iran backdoor access to financial transactions in dollars. The administration reportedly believes it needs to make this additional concession to honor the spirit of the agreement. Congress is crying foul, asserting that such dollar access was not included in the letter of the original deal and constitutes a gift to Iran that should not be given without additional Iranian concessions. As President Obama himself asked recently: Why should the United States offer additional concessions to honor the spirit of the deal if Iran is not also making additional concessions? This fight originates from the imprecision of the agreement. Since Implementation Day, the world's largest banks have continued to steer clear of banking with Iranian clients or companies looking to do business in Iran, in part because they fear running afoul of remaining U.S. sanctions on the Islamic Republic, but also because of the endemic corruption and money laundering problems plaguing its financial system. This reluctance has caused ripple effects: Major European companies have been unable to find the banking services necessary to do business in Iran, and as a result Iran has claimed that the United States is not fulfilling its obligations under the agreement. Iran's claim threatens the deal, and the administration has responded in the last two weeks by trying to find ways to incentivize banks to begin doing business in the Islamic Republic, notably by considering permitting those banks to conduct dollar-based transactions outside of the United States on behalf of companies doing business in Iran. But the administration cannot do that without violating what Congress believes it was promised in the deal - namely, an Iran without direct or indirect access to the U.S. financial system... But this imprecise language has caused more than a fight between the administration and Congress - indeed, it lies at the heart of Iran's entire claim that the United States is preventing banks from doing permissible business in Iran in contravention of U.S. obligations. Iran's assertion is predicated on ambiguous language in the agreement, specifically that the United States 'make best efforts in good faith to sustain this JCPOA and to prevent interference with the realization of the full benefit by Iran of the sanctions lifting specified.' The Iranians have interpreted this to mean that the United States must takes steps to facilitate banks' willingness to do business in Iran and help re-integrate Iran into the world financial system. And while dollarized transactions were almost surely not included in the original agreement, because this language is so broad, the Iranians now have a credible claim that such relief falls within the four corners of the agreement. This lack of precision was not a drafting mistake by the negotiators, however; it was intentional. Former administration negotiators have acknowledged in private that elements of the deal were left ambiguous with the express purpose of allowing the administration to sell the agreement to Congress and the American people, and the Iranian negotiators to sell the agreement to the hardliners back home." http://t.uani.com/1Nzbcdm

Eugene Kontorovich in WashPost: "The Obama administration has been writing letters to all 50 state governors, urging them to reconsider economic sanctions they have against Iran. Almost half of U.S. states have adopted such measures, which were explicitly authorized by statute in the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act of 2010 (CISADA). 'I would urge you to consider whether the implementation of the JCPOA, which verifiably ensures that Iran's nuclear program is and will remain exclusively peaceful, addresses the underlying concerns with Iran articulated in your state's law,' one of the letters stated. Indeed, one of the more controversial components of JCPOA was that the U.S. would 'actively encourage' state and local governments to drop sanctions related to Iran's nuclear weapons program. The question now is whether this mass letter represents the completion of what the administration thinks the JCPOA requires or authorizes it to do, or whether it will go further, such as suing state governments to lift sanctions or attempting to 'declare' state laws preempted despite the clear contrary language in CISADA... the JCPOA itself cannot upend state sanctions laws. The JCPOA is not a treaty, and thus cannot override statutes, like CISADA... Unless he is merely hoping overworked state attorneys general are likely to blink first, President Obama is unlikely to push this matter further with the states. If he does, he is likely to lose on the state sanctions issue and may well open the door to a broader legal inquiry into the legal status of the Iran deal." http://t.uani.com/1SsiOWI

John Schindler in The Observer: "For nearly 15 years, ever since jihadists took down the Twin Towers and killed nearly 3,000 Americans, many have wondered how a bunch of novice terrorists-several of whom could barely fly an airplane, much less a big jetliner-could pull off such complex and audacious attack. What al-Qa'ida termed their 'Planes Operation' was meticulously planned prior to execution-but by whom, exactly? That key question remains partly open, and the American public has never received the full explanation from our government that they deserve. I know what they have not been allowed to see: When 9/11 happened I was a counterintelligence officer with the National Security Agency and part of my purview was looking into state connections to international terrorism. I was one of the few officials in our Intelligence Community seriously looking into al-Qa'ida's links to foreign intelligence before the Twin Towers fell... That Iran had some sort of hand in the Planes Operation has long been suspected by many insiders. Contrary to what 'terrorism experts' may say, Tehran was always willing to aid Sunni extremists like al-Qa'ida, while Osama bin Laden and his ilk were equally willing to accept secret help from the Shia they despise. Iranian intelligence has enjoyed a clandestine relationship with al-Qa'ida going back to the early 1990s, and U.S. intelligence has known of meetings between their leadership and top Tehran spies since 1996. As I exposed in my 2007 book Unholy Terror, it was this toxic secret brew of Saudi cash and Iranian know-how that enabled al-Qa'ida in the 1990s to transform from a regional terrorist group into a global movement and threat. The real road to 9/11 was paved by Riyadh's moneymen and Tehran's spies, who despite their mutual antipathy were both eager to help bin Laden and his movement in their jihad against the West. Despite these facts, the 9/11 Commission demonstrated little interest in Iranian ties to the Planes Operation. While admitting that several of the hijackers had transited Iran, and that Khalid Sheikh Muhammad, the notorious KSM, the jihadist entrepreneur who came up with the Planes Operation, had stashed his family in Iran for years, it went no further. Why Tehran would want to help Sunni radicals was left essentially unexplored. In particular, the 9/11 Commission punted on the obvious lines of inquiry that such information opened up to anyone with eyes wanting to see, lamely noting that the issue of Iran's role 'requires further investigation by the U.S. Government.' That additional inquiry never came. In fairness to the 9/11 Commission, they were not allowed to see important information that might have changed their minds. In particular, they did not see NSA signals intelligence that shed significant light on Iran's clandestine role supporting al-Qa'ida generally and the Planes Operation particularly. SIGINT from NSA makes up the lion's share of intelligence in our government, and the fact that the 9/11 Commission was never shown the impressive full NSA archive of reports, many highly classified, on the very topic they were investigating seems incomprehensible. Since the U.S. Government did not do its job, the task of unraveling Iran's links to 9/11 has fallen to private citizens who have filed suit against Tehran, with some success. At a minimum, they have marshaled impressive evidence that Iran's secret role was important and something that needs serious examination. Recently a Federal judge agreed, ordering Tehran to pay more than $10.5 billion in damages to the families of 9/11 victims on the basis of Iran's role in that criminal conspiracy." http://t.uani.com/1SsjU4E

NYPost Editorial: "Just how far will President Obama go to protect the nuclear deal with Iran - which he sees as central to his legacy? We'll be finding out soon. Tehran is loudly threatening to pull out of the accord unless it gets access to the US financial system. It would have to settle for the measly $150 billion in cash it's already pocketed, plus the end of global sanctions. Valiollah Seif, head of Iran's central bank, charged last Friday that Washington isn't living up to its part of the deal because 'we are not able to use our frozen funds abroad.' Unless that's resolved, he said, 'the deal breaks up on its own accord.' Don't expect Team Obama to even think about calling Iran's bluff. In fact, the State Department has already written all 50 governors asking them to reconsider their states' sanctions on Iran. Yet most of those sanctions aren't about Iran's nuclear program but its support of terrorism, its missile program, its general oppression of its own citizens, etc. And the Financial Action Task Force, a global body that combats money-laundering and terror-financing, just declared it remains 'exceptionally concerned' about Iran's continued financial support for international terrorism. Indeed, FATF urged all members to 'apply effective counter-measures' to protect their financial sectors against 'risks emanating from Iran.' Yet the administration is reportedly moving to do the opposite - looking to let Iran access dollars via a Hong Kong clearinghouse. It's one reason this rancid deal was never submitted to Congress as a treaty: Obama keeps having to change the terms to please Tehran. As things stand, he'll likely keep on with it until Iran gets everything it wants." http://t.uani.com/1Qk8dW0

Pittsburgh Tribune-Review Editorial: "Long before the Obama administration hailed the nuclear deal with Iran, federal authorities were tracking teams of Iranian hackers who have attacked U.S. financial institutions since 2011. So as not to rock the boat before implementing the nuke accord and securing the release of four American prisoners in Iran, the Islamic republic's hacking was kept quiet until recently, according to The Daily Signal. The so-called 'powerful message' sent by the hackers' indictments, trumpeted on March 24 by Attorney General Loretta Lynch, is a tad diluted by its timing. Reportedly two teams of Iran-based hackers affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard launched cyberattacks against the United States from 2011-13. Three employees of Iran's ITSecTeam attacked 46 financial institutions while four employees of Iran's Mersad Co. attacked 24 companies. Just last month, National Intelligence chief James Clapper identified Iran, along with China, Russia and North Korea, as 'leading threat actors' against U.S. security. But the extent of Iran's hacking became known only after the dubious nuclear accord went into effect. Ditto with a $1.7 billion U.S. settlement paid to Iran to resolve decades-old legal claims. What emerges is a clearly delineated putrid pattern of U.S. appeasement toward Iran in the run-up to the nuclear deal, which, in itself, is a travesty." http://t.uani.com/23I3JWh
       

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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