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ISIS
is Collapsing
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[N.B.: This version differs slightly from
the MH one; and its title is "ISIS in Syria, Iraq, weaker, is on
the verge of collapse."]
I predict that the ISIS state in Syria and Iraq will collapse as fast as
it arose. Indeed, I will go out on a limb and say I expect it to be gone by
the end of 2016.That the Islamic State (also known as ISIS, ISIL, or Daesh) will be gone is predictable because all totalitarian states eventually disappear due to three main developments: cadres become disillusioned, subject populations suffer, and external enemies increase in number. All these problems afflicted, for example, the fascist states of World War II as well as the Soviet bloc. ISIS will collapse quickly because it suffers from an extreme form of these problems. Disillusioned cadres: The heaven-on-earth ISIS promises its adepts turns out to be closer to hell, prompting many recruits to flee and many more to want to. Growing numbers of ISIS fighters lack loyalty to the group, toiling only for the money or out of fear. The reasons can be as mundane as bad food and as elevated as bad theology, but grievous disappointment is the common theme coming from the ranks of ISIS members. Radical ideologues evolve into penitents; drug-addled fighters end up as near-vegetables.
Foreign enemies: ISIS seems to take pride in making as many enemies as possible, which may burnish its credentials for purity but leaves it exceedingly vulnerable. It gratuitously alienated Jordanians by burning alive an air force pilot; it enraged Turks by setting off bombs in major cities; its acts of violence in Paris, Brussels, and beyond have made it enemy #1 in much of the West (including even the Islamists living there); it alienates everyone with the destruction of antiquities, the use of poison gas, and the videotaped beheadings. Its only alliances are with like-minded groups such as Boko Haram in Nigeria. As a result, ISIS has become uniquely reviled. For example, in an unprecedented meeting, the U.N. Security Council in December 2015 voted unanimously to impose far-reaching economic sanctions on ISIS. On another level, a recent large-scale survey found half of 18 to 24-year-old Arabic-speakers saying that ISIS is the "biggest obstacle facing the Middle East," more so than unemployment, Israel, or Iran.
But if the ISIS state in Syria and Iraq is doomed, ISIS will live on in other ways. First is the successor state in Libya and perhaps also others in Nigeria, Somalia, Afghanistan, and beyond. Second is the very idea of the caliphate, a medieval concept of Muslim supremacism that has malign implications for modern life. So, let us hasten to bring about and then celebrate the forthcoming demise of the Islamic State centered in Raqqa, Syria, without deluding ourselves that ISIS is entirely finished. To achieve that requires, unfortunately, defeating and marginalizing the entire Islamist movement. That too may happen, but is many years off. Mr. Pipes (DanielPipes.org, @DanielPipes) is president of the Middle East Forum. © 2016 by Daniel Pipes. All rights reserved.
Related Topics: Iraq, Radical Islam, Syria
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