Thursday, December 22, 2016

Eye on Iran: Airbus Finalizes $18 Billion Jet Deal With Iran


   EYE ON IRAN
Facebook
Twitter
View our videos on YouTube
   




TOP STORIES


European plane maker Airbus Group SE on Thursday said it had finalized a controversial deal to sell more than $18 billion worth of jetliners to Iran less than two weeks after rival Boeing Co. signed a similar accord. The blockbuster contracts are among the highest profile deals western companies have signed with Iran after world powers lifted sanctions on the Islamic Republic in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. The plane deals have become a magnet for U.S. critics of closer ties with Iran... Airbus, the world's No. 2 jet maker behind Boeing, said it would sell 100 planes to Iran Air, the country's flag carrier. The deal includes 46 single-aisle A320 planes, as well as 38 A330 and 16 A350 long-haul planes... The first jets will be delivered to Iran early next year, the Toulouse, France-based company said. Fabrice Brégier, who heads Airbus's commercial plane making unit, said the deal also includes pilot training and assistance in other activities. He called it "a significant first step in the overall modernization of Iran's commercial aviation sector."

European governments are quietly warning the incoming Trump administration that the US will get the blame if any new economic sanctions on Iran lead to the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal. European officials have told the Trump team and Republicans in Congress that there would be little appetite within the EU for a new campaign of international pressure on Iran if the US took steps that precipitated the end of the agreement... "If there is some sort of major provocation from the Iranians, then we might be able to get behind new sanctions," said one senior European official. "But if new American sanctions cause the deal to collapse, then most people in Europe will say it is the Americans' fault." ... For the Europeans, new sanctions on specific individuals or entities might be acceptable but they are wary about targeting sectors of the Iranian economy. "In the current climate, new economic sanctions on Iran are a non-starter," said another European official.

Iran has scored a string of victories across the Middle East, and decades of isolation mean it is well-placed to weather the uncertainties of a Trump presidency... Having rarely commented on its role in the Syrian conflict, Tehran has been suddenly full of self-congratulation at the imminent defeat of rebel forces in Aleppo. "The liberation of Aleppo... reinforces the political strength of Islamic Republic of Iran. The new American president must accept the reality that Iran is the leading power in the region," Yahya Safavi, top foreign policy adviser to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told reporters last week. The dominoes do indeed appear to be falling in Iran's favour in recent weeks.

IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

The Barack Obama administration and European allies are trying to buy time for the Iran nuclear deal, working to resolve any technical ambiguities in the accord and trying to make the case to the emerging Donald Trump team that the deal is working and renegotiating it is not a viable option. The nuclear deal "is a decent deal ... it works," a European diplomat, speaking not for attribution, said Dec. 14, conveying the message European governments have conveyed to US interlocutors in recent weeks. "When issues come up" - technical ambiguities in the agreement, for instance - "we are able to resolve them. ... As of today, the deal is implemented in the correct manner." ... While the Obama administration increasingly thinks it is unlikely, if not inconceivable, that the Trump administration comes in and rips up the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), it worries about other scenarios that could strain the year-old nuclear accord and derail years of effort to put US-Iran relations on a less confrontational footing.

SANCTIONS RELIEF

Malaysia's state-owned energy company Petroliam Nasional Bhd signed an agreement to study two oil fields in Iran, joining international companies from Russia to France that plan to help boost the Persian Gulf nation's oil and gas production. Petronas signed a memorandum of understanding to assess the South Azadegan and Cheshmeh Khosh oil fields, Gholam-Reza Manouchehri, deputy director of the National Iranian Oil Co., said at a signing ceremony in Tehran on Wednesday. In the past month, Iran has signed up Royal Dutch Shell Plc to Russia's Gazprom Neft PJSC and Total SA to study its oil and gas potential after sanctions on its economy were eased in January. "We will be happy to work with the NIOC," Anuar Taib, executive vice president and chief executive officer of upstream for Petronas, said at the ceremony. "We have 40 years of experience in exploration and production so we think we are qualified to do the job."

In a cabinet meeting in late November, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized that the new submarines were absolutely necessary to ensure Israel's existence. The Dolphin-class submarines, made by Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS), are to conduct reconnaissance missions off the coast of Iran. They could also see action should there ever be a military conflict between the two countries... But one country will profit from the deal immediately: Iran. Israel's archenemy is one of ThyssenKrupp's investors, and it has been so since 1974... With its coffers overflowing after the oil crisis of the early 1970s, Iran went on an international shopping spree. At the time, Iran invested $400 million (383 million euros) in Germany's Krupp corporation, purchasing 25 percent of its shares... Under pressure from the US, the conglomerate ThyssenKrupp eventually bought back shares from Iran. The company saw to it that Iranian investments made up less than 5 percent of its equity share.

Renault Trucks is furthering its corporation with the Iranian importer Arya Diesel Motors. On 21 December 2016, the parties signed two agreements in Lyon: an import agreement covering vehicles from the T, C and K ranges and an industrial cooperation agreement for the assembly of T range vehicles.

SYRIA CONFLICT

Syria's Bashar al Assad says the recapturing of eastern Aleppo from rebel forces is as much a victory for Russia and Iran as his own country. The president's comments came as Russia claimed its air campaign against the besieged city had killed 25,000 "fighters" since September 2015. Iranian backed militias, led by Lebanese Hezbollah militia, provided thousands of fighters to battle rebels along the city's main front lines.

Outrage over the carnage in Aleppo has so far been directed at Moscow and Damascus, but activists on the ground say Tehran has a top general on the scene and has established secret camps where Iraqi mercenaries are trained to root out rebels in the Syrian city. According to information provided to FoxNews.com, the forces currently controlling the city of Aleppo are under the command of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The military outfit under its command includes foreign mercenaries such as Lebanese Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and also the Shiite fighters of the Liwa Fatemiyoun from Afghanistan and the Liwa Zainebiyoun from Pakistan.

The Obama administration is facing renewed criticism that it is avoiding confronting Iran over a widening list of the Islamic Republic's sanctions violations and military activities, after State Department officials would not commit to taking punitive action against a top Iranian military official who was photographed touring Aleppo in violation of an international travel ban. The visit from Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran's secretive Quds Force, occurred in the aftermath of a military campaign which left the Syrian city facing a deepening humanitarian crisis and generated accusations that Iran-backed militias fighting alongside the regime likely committed war crimes.

MILITARY MATTERS

Pentagon officials are downplaying declarations by Iran that it is spending some $1.7 billion provided by the United States on new advanced weapons systems, while also acknowledging that the Islamic Republic continues to build its military arsenal at an increasing rate, according to a Defense Department assessment obtained by the Washington Free Beacon. Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, informed Congress in an unclassified communication last week that the Pentagon does not believe Iran has spent some $1.7 billion awarded by the United States as part of what many described as a "ransom" payment to purchase new military equipment. However, Dunford said that Iran is boosting its war machine, causing "great concern" among regional allies and other groups, according to information provided to Congress that downplayed the impact of the $1.7 billion payment to Tehran. The assessment has been met with skepticism by congressional sources and foreign policy insiders who pointed to recent statements by Iranian officials who said that U.S. funds have been allocated to military sources.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Iran's President Hassan Rouhani says on a visit to Armenia that the two nations should work to expand transport routes in the region. Rouhani said Wednesday after talks with his Armenian counterpart Serzh Sargsyan that Iran and Armenia must develop a transport corridor that will lead from the Persian Gulf all the way to the Black Sea.

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Although President-elect Donald Trump's position on the Iran nuclear deal remains unclear, he and his allies in the Congress are expected to at least better enforce and strengthen the Iran deal. They should start by focusing on the deal's heavy water loophole, whereby Iran can store offshore in Oman heavy water it owns and controls in excess of the nuclear deal's limits, awaiting its eventual sale. To date, if the stocks in Iran and Oman are counted together (a reasonable view since Iran owns and controls both stocks), Iran has far exceeded the nuclear deal's stated limit of maintaining a stock of only 130 metric tons of heavy water. Yet, this loophole was sanctioned by the executive body of the Iran deal, the Joint Commission. Despite such generous treatment, Iran has even so twice violated the narrow limit of 130 metric tons of heavy water it can hold inside Iran since the deal started in January 2016. Iran should no longer be facilitated in its overproduction of nuclear-related heavy water. Oman would do the world a favor by halting its willingness to accept Iranian heavy water and send any back to Iran for downblending. The return of the heavy water and its blending down would dramatically signal to Iran that violations of the Iran deal are no longer going to be tolerated, or worse, facilitated. Moreover, any further overproduction should be seen by the United States as a violation of the deal. It should work to end the Oman loophole and mitigate damage caused by a U.S. purchase of Iranian heavy water.

President-elect Donald Trump's priorities in foreign policy have yet to be spelled out in any detail. Certainly trade matters to him, and so does going after ISIS; the events in Ankara and Berlin are sure to deepen that impulse. In that connection, he has said more than once that the Russians and the Syrians are fighting the Islamic State, and that we should take advantage of their doing so. This is a far dicier proposition than it may appear on its face - particularly inasmuch as it may strengthen the hand of Iran throughout the Middle East. With both Russia and Syria being responsible for a siege, starve and scorched-earth policy in Aleppo, and Bashar Assad's regime likely to regain control of the whole city, the war in Syria will soon enter a new phase. As campaign pledges begin to give way to on-the-ground policy, it is extraordinarily important for the new administration to understand what will help us defeat ISIS and who we need as partners in this fight... At a minimum, Vladimir Putin must stop abetting Iranian power. The Trump administration cannot say it is going to be tougher on Iran and at the same time join with the Russians in Syria. The two are mutually exclusive.

Elections in Iran often catch outsiders, and perhaps equally as often insiders, by surprise. From Mohammad Khatami's shock win in 1997, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's unexpected sweep in 2005, and Hassan Rouhani's 2013 marginal victory, elections have generally confounded and caught observers off guard. In addition to indicating the competitive and fierce nature of electoral competition within Iran, the shock of election results also point to endemic misunderstandings of the factional structures driving Iranian domestic politics and electoral voting patterns. These factors are not just limited to the presidential elections but are equally true for the country's parliamentary contests, as witnessed in the 2016 elections. Coming at a crucial juncture following the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and the P5+1, Iran's 10th parliamentary elections are significant for several reasons. The elections determine the makeup of the legislative branch for the next four years-four crucial years that will impact Rouhani's ability to implement his domestic policies and his likelihood to win re-election in 2017. Significantly, these elections are the first Iran experienced since the signing of the JCPOA agreement and as such reflect the early impact of the nuclear agreement on domestic political change inside Iran... As endemic uncertainty looms over the horizon, one thing is for sure: Iranian factional­ism will continue to dominate the country's political scene and could threaten the basic tenets of the nuclear deal and Rouhani's hope to reintegrate Iran into the global economy.






Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

No comments:

Post a Comment