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TOP STORIES
European plane maker Airbus Group SE on Thursday said
it had finalized a controversial deal to sell more than $18 billion
worth of jetliners to Iran less than two weeks after rival Boeing Co.
signed a similar accord. The blockbuster contracts are among the
highest profile deals western companies have signed with Iran after
world powers lifted sanctions on the Islamic Republic in exchange for
curbs on its nuclear program. The plane deals have become a magnet
for U.S. critics of closer ties with Iran... Airbus, the world's No.
2 jet maker behind Boeing, said it would sell 100 planes to Iran Air,
the country's flag carrier. The deal includes 46 single-aisle A320
planes, as well as 38 A330 and 16 A350 long-haul planes... The first
jets will be delivered to Iran early next year, the Toulouse,
France-based company said. Fabrice Brégier, who heads Airbus's
commercial plane making unit, said the deal also includes pilot
training and assistance in other activities. He called it "a
significant first step in the overall modernization of Iran's
commercial aviation sector."
European governments are quietly warning the incoming
Trump administration that the US will get the blame if any new
economic sanctions on Iran lead to the collapse of the 2015 nuclear
deal. European officials have told the Trump team and Republicans in
Congress that there would be little appetite within the EU for a new
campaign of international pressure on Iran if the US took steps that
precipitated the end of the agreement... "If there is some sort
of major provocation from the Iranians, then we might be able to get
behind new sanctions," said one senior European official.
"But if new American sanctions cause the deal to collapse, then
most people in Europe will say it is the Americans' fault." ...
For the Europeans, new sanctions on specific individuals or entities
might be acceptable but they are wary about targeting sectors of the
Iranian economy. "In the current climate, new economic sanctions
on Iran are a non-starter," said another European official.
Iran has scored a string of victories across the
Middle East, and decades of isolation mean it is well-placed to
weather the uncertainties of a Trump presidency... Having rarely
commented on its role in the Syrian conflict, Tehran has been
suddenly full of self-congratulation at the imminent defeat of rebel
forces in Aleppo. "The liberation of Aleppo... reinforces the
political strength of Islamic Republic of Iran. The new American
president must accept the reality that Iran is the leading power in
the region," Yahya Safavi, top foreign policy adviser to supreme
leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told reporters last week. The dominoes
do indeed appear to be falling in Iran's favour in recent weeks.
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
The Barack Obama administration and European allies
are trying to buy time for the Iran nuclear deal, working to resolve
any technical ambiguities in the accord and trying to make the case
to the emerging Donald Trump team that the deal is working and
renegotiating it is not a viable option. The nuclear deal "is a
decent deal ... it works," a European diplomat, speaking not for
attribution, said Dec. 14, conveying the message European governments
have conveyed to US interlocutors in recent weeks. "When issues
come up" - technical ambiguities in the agreement, for instance
- "we are able to resolve them. ... As of today, the deal is
implemented in the correct manner." ... While the Obama
administration increasingly thinks it is unlikely, if not
inconceivable, that the Trump administration comes in and rips up the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), it worries about other
scenarios that could strain the year-old nuclear accord and derail
years of effort to put US-Iran relations on a less confrontational
footing.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
Malaysia's state-owned energy company Petroliam
Nasional Bhd signed an agreement to study two oil fields in Iran,
joining international companies from Russia to France that plan to
help boost the Persian Gulf nation's oil and gas production. Petronas
signed a memorandum of understanding to assess the South Azadegan and
Cheshmeh Khosh oil fields, Gholam-Reza Manouchehri, deputy director
of the National Iranian Oil Co., said at a signing ceremony in Tehran
on Wednesday. In the past month, Iran has signed up Royal Dutch Shell
Plc to Russia's Gazprom Neft PJSC and Total SA to study its oil and
gas potential after sanctions on its economy were eased in January.
"We will be happy to work with the NIOC," Anuar Taib,
executive vice president and chief executive officer of upstream for
Petronas, said at the ceremony. "We have 40 years of experience
in exploration and production so we think we are qualified to do the
job."
In a cabinet meeting in late November, Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized that the new submarines were
absolutely necessary to ensure Israel's existence. The Dolphin-class
submarines, made by Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS), are
to conduct reconnaissance missions off the coast of Iran. They could
also see action should there ever be a military conflict between the
two countries... But one country will profit from the deal
immediately: Iran. Israel's archenemy is one of ThyssenKrupp's
investors, and it has been so since 1974... With its coffers
overflowing after the oil crisis of the early 1970s, Iran went on an
international shopping spree. At the time, Iran invested $400 million
(383 million euros) in Germany's Krupp corporation, purchasing 25
percent of its shares... Under pressure from the US, the conglomerate
ThyssenKrupp eventually bought back shares from Iran. The company saw
to it that Iranian investments made up less than 5 percent of its
equity share.
Renault Trucks is furthering its corporation with the
Iranian importer Arya Diesel Motors. On 21 December 2016, the parties
signed two agreements in Lyon: an import agreement covering vehicles
from the T, C and K ranges and an industrial cooperation agreement
for the assembly of T range vehicles.
SYRIA CONFLICT
Syria's Bashar al Assad says the recapturing of
eastern Aleppo from rebel forces is as much a victory for Russia and
Iran as his own country. The president's comments came as Russia
claimed its air campaign against the besieged city had killed 25,000
"fighters" since September 2015. Iranian backed militias,
led by Lebanese Hezbollah militia, provided thousands of fighters to
battle rebels along the city's main front lines.
Outrage over the carnage in Aleppo has so far been
directed at Moscow and Damascus, but activists on the ground say
Tehran has a top general on the scene and has established secret
camps where Iraqi mercenaries are trained to root out rebels in the
Syrian city. According to information provided to FoxNews.com, the
forces currently controlling the city of Aleppo are under the command
of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The military
outfit under its command includes foreign mercenaries such as
Lebanese Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and also the Shiite fighters of
the Liwa Fatemiyoun from Afghanistan and the Liwa Zainebiyoun from Pakistan.
The Obama administration is facing renewed criticism
that it is avoiding confronting Iran over a widening list of the
Islamic Republic's sanctions violations and military activities,
after State Department officials would not commit to taking punitive
action against a top Iranian military official who was photographed
touring Aleppo in violation of an international travel ban. The visit
from Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran's secretive Quds Force,
occurred in the aftermath of a military campaign which left the
Syrian city facing a deepening humanitarian crisis and generated
accusations that Iran-backed militias fighting alongside the regime
likely committed war crimes.
MILITARY MATTERS
Pentagon officials are downplaying declarations by
Iran that it is spending some $1.7 billion provided by the United
States on new advanced weapons systems, while also acknowledging that
the Islamic Republic continues to build its military arsenal at an
increasing rate, according to a Defense Department assessment
obtained by the Washington Free Beacon. Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman
of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, informed Congress in an unclassified
communication last week that the Pentagon does not believe Iran has
spent some $1.7 billion awarded by the United States as part of what
many described as a "ransom" payment to purchase new
military equipment. However, Dunford said that Iran is boosting its
war machine, causing "great concern" among regional allies
and other groups, according to information provided to Congress that
downplayed the impact of the $1.7 billion payment to Tehran. The
assessment has been met with skepticism by congressional sources and
foreign policy insiders who pointed to recent statements by Iranian
officials who said that U.S. funds have been allocated to military
sources.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Iran's President Hassan Rouhani says on a visit to
Armenia that the two nations should work to expand transport routes
in the region. Rouhani said Wednesday after talks with his Armenian
counterpart Serzh Sargsyan that Iran and Armenia must develop a transport
corridor that will lead from the Persian Gulf all the way to the
Black Sea.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
Although President-elect Donald Trump's position on
the Iran nuclear deal remains unclear, he and his allies in the
Congress are expected to at least better enforce and strengthen the
Iran deal. They should start by focusing on the deal's heavy water
loophole, whereby Iran can store offshore in Oman heavy water it owns
and controls in excess of the nuclear deal's limits, awaiting its
eventual sale. To date, if the stocks in Iran and Oman are counted
together (a reasonable view since Iran owns and controls both
stocks), Iran has far exceeded the nuclear deal's stated limit of
maintaining a stock of only 130 metric tons of heavy water. Yet, this
loophole was sanctioned by the executive body of the Iran deal, the
Joint Commission. Despite such generous treatment, Iran has even so
twice violated the narrow limit of 130 metric tons of heavy water it
can hold inside Iran since the deal started in January 2016. Iran
should no longer be facilitated in its overproduction of
nuclear-related heavy water. Oman would do the world a favor by
halting its willingness to accept Iranian heavy water and send any
back to Iran for downblending. The return of the heavy water and its
blending down would dramatically signal to Iran that violations of
the Iran deal are no longer going to be tolerated, or worse,
facilitated. Moreover, any further overproduction should be seen by the
United States as a violation of the deal. It should work to end the
Oman loophole and mitigate damage caused by a U.S. purchase of
Iranian heavy water.
President-elect Donald Trump's priorities in foreign
policy have yet to be spelled out in any detail. Certainly trade
matters to him, and so does going after ISIS; the events in Ankara
and Berlin are sure to deepen that impulse. In that connection, he
has said more than once that the Russians and the Syrians are
fighting the Islamic State, and that we should take advantage of
their doing so. This is a far dicier proposition than it may appear
on its face - particularly inasmuch as it may strengthen the hand of
Iran throughout the Middle East. With both Russia and Syria being responsible
for a siege, starve and scorched-earth policy in Aleppo, and Bashar
Assad's regime likely to regain control of the whole city, the war in
Syria will soon enter a new phase. As campaign pledges begin to give
way to on-the-ground policy, it is extraordinarily important for the
new administration to understand what will help us defeat ISIS and
who we need as partners in this fight... At a minimum, Vladimir Putin
must stop abetting Iranian power. The Trump administration cannot say
it is going to be tougher on Iran and at the same time join with the
Russians in Syria. The two are mutually exclusive.
Elections in Iran often catch outsiders, and perhaps
equally as often insiders, by surprise. From Mohammad Khatami's shock
win in 1997, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's unexpected sweep in 2005, and
Hassan Rouhani's 2013 marginal victory, elections have generally
confounded and caught observers off guard. In addition to indicating
the competitive and fierce nature of electoral competition within
Iran, the shock of election results also point to endemic
misunderstandings of the factional structures driving Iranian
domestic politics and electoral voting patterns. These factors are
not just limited to the presidential elections but are equally true
for the country's parliamentary contests, as witnessed in the 2016
elections. Coming at a crucial juncture following the implementation
of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and
the P5+1, Iran's 10th parliamentary elections are significant for
several reasons. The elections determine the makeup of the legislative
branch for the next four years-four crucial years that will impact
Rouhani's ability to implement his domestic policies and his
likelihood to win re-election in 2017. Significantly, these elections
are the first Iran experienced since the signing of the JCPOA
agreement and as such reflect the early impact of the nuclear
agreement on domestic political change inside Iran... As endemic
uncertainty looms over the horizon, one thing is for sure: Iranian
factionalism will continue to dominate the country's political scene
and could threaten the basic tenets of the nuclear deal and Rouhani's
hope to reintegrate Iran into the global economy.
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