Thursday, August 31, 2017

Eye on Iran: France Sees Talks on Post-Iran Nuclear Deal, Ballistic Missile Use


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France suggested on Wednesday that the nuclear deal Iran struck with world powers in 2015 could be supplemented through "future consultations" to include the post-2025 period and tackle Iran's development of ballistic missiles. 


In his first televised interview since being inaugurated for a second term, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani dismissed his American counterpart's effort to kill the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). In response to a question about his assessment of US President Donald Trump, Rouhani, whose government reached a deal on Iran's nuclear program with the six world powers in 2015, said Aug. 29, "This is a hard question. Americans themselves and their politicians cannot answer that. Even Mr. Trump's fellow Republicans cannot answer that." Noting "shaky" US government policy, Rouhani added, "This can be in our interest in that the US is experiencing the hardest time in building a consensus against Iran."


A senior Israeli official warned the Russian government that if Iran continues to extend its reach in Syria, Israel will bomb Syrian President Bashar Assad's palace in Damascus, according to reports in Arab media. Israel also warned that if serious changes do not happen in the region, Israel will make sure the ceasefire deal, reached by the United States and Russia in Astana, Kazakhstan, will be nullified.

UANI IN THE NEWS


Mark Kirk, a former Republican US senator and senior adviser to the United Against Nuclear Iran group, warned that besides North Korea informing Iran's strategic decisions, the two countries also have a history of collaborating on nuclear and ballistic missile projects. "The Shahab-3 missile, which is the main missile that the Iranians are aiming at Israel, is largely a Nodong missile, designed and built in North Korea," Kirk said, speaking over the phone from the United States... Kirk described the previous US policy toward North Korea and Iran as one of appeasement and decried it as ultimately ineffective.


A vocal opponent of the Iran nuclear deal, Kirk never minced words over President Barack Obama's harsh treatment of Israel and desire for detente with Iran. Kirk co-authored legislation to promote human rights and democracy in Iran as well as to strengthen and expand sanctions... Kirk revealed his future plans, announcing that at the request of former Sen. Joe Lieberman, he will be joining United Against Nuclear Iran, a non-partisan, non-profit, pro-Israel advocacy organization. In the immediate future, Kirk will be traveling with [former Israeli defense minister Moshe] Ya'alon to New York to lobby the U.N. General Assembly against Iran.. "A point that cannot be said often enough by our current administration.. is that the missile program of North Korea and the nuclear program of Iran are the same program," said Kirk. "When you send money to Iran, you're basically sending money to North Korea's biggest partner in the nuke and missile business. You cannot do that." 


"[United Against Nuclear Iran] is a bipartisan group where former Vice President Lieberman and I work together to make sure we have the strongest possible Republican and Democratic views to mitigate the danger from Iran, the number one state sponsor of terror according to President Obama."


Decades of U.S. diplomacy with Iran, including the Obama administration's landmark nuclear accord, may leave Israeli military action as the only option to prevent Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons, according to former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton. "I don't make any disguise of the idea that ultimately it may take an Israeli strike against Iran's nuclear program to stop it," [former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations John] Bolton told the Washington Free Beacon. "I wish we weren't at that point, but this is what 25 years of negotiations with Iran gets you."

MILITARY MATTERS


Iran this week showcased two new components of what it hopes will become a more effective air defence network - a development that might eventually have significant implications, and be key in its quest to weaken the conventional military superiority of the US and its regional allies. Analysts said the announcements that Iran's military has "fully integrated" its new Russian-supplied S-300 missile systems into its air defence network, and developed new air surveillance technology, are incremental steps that do not at the moment unravel the deterrent capabilities of the United States, GCC and Israel.

SYRIA CONFLICT


Russia warned Israel on Wednesday not to authorize an attack on Iranian military positions in Syria after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened to prevent a buildup on his borders. "If anyone in the Middle East or [an]other part of the world plans to violate international law by undermining any other country's sovereignty or territorial integrity, including any country in the Middle East or North Africa, this would be condemned," Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters.


The US and Israel are "of the same mind" when it comes to opposition to any Iranian military presence in Syria, US Ambassador David Friedman told The Jerusalem Post... [he[ said the US was "extraordinarily receptive" to Israel's concerns about Iranian penetration into Syria when a high-level security delegation led by Mossad head Yossi Cohen went to Washington to discuss the issue two weeks ago.

HUMAN RIGHTS


Iranian security forces arrested dozens of Arab activists and citizens in Ahwaz to prevent marches and celebrations during Eid al-Adha, the Ahwaz Human Rights Organization (AHRO) said in a statement which Al-Arabiya.net received a copy of. AHRO, which published the names of 35 detainees, said Iran must commit to the International Human Rights Council resolutions and respect freedoms and people's right to peacefully gather and march. The organization also condemned the arrests which it described as arbitrary and said these security measures during Eid are a flagrant violation of Arab citizens' rights in Ahwaz and a violation of international laws and treaties.


Iranian authorities should immediately release Sasan Aghaei and Yaghma Fashkhami, two journalists detained in Tehran, the Committee to Protect Journalists said today. Security agents on August 12 arrested Aghaei at the offices of Etemaad Daily, the reformist newspaper where he works as a political columnist, according to reports. Authorities have not stated publicly the reason for his arrest. Separately, security agents arrested Fashkhami, a reporter for Didban Iran, at the news website's Tehran office on August 21, according to reports. According to the reformist news website Kalame, authorities have not charged Fashkhami. The journalist previously worked for the Iranian newspaper Rozan, which authorities shut down in December 2014, according to BBC Persian.


The medical condition of more than a dozen political prisoners at Iran's Rajaee Shar Prison, who have been on prolonged hunger strike to protest the inhumane conditions of their incarceration, is deteriorating rapidly, yet judicial and prison officials are neither providing proper medical treatment nor addressing the strikers' demands for humane conditions at the prison. The Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI) calls on the judiciary, who has authority over the country's State Prison Organization, to immediately provide full and proper medical treatment to these prisoners and to address their lawful demands for humane treatment at the prison.

OPINION & ANALYSIS


It seems blatantly obvious but, in a day and age where denial reigns supreme, it bears repeating: The presence of Iranian sleeper cells has long been the barometer of Iranian intention and the forerunner to Iranian terror attacks. They serve no other purpose. European leaders might consider Iranian President Hassan Rouhani a pragmatic or reforming voice inside the Islamic Republic, and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif can woo more naïve diplomats and journalists enthralled with his personality and convinced of his sincerity. But it is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and intelligence ministries which call the shots, and the direction they are steering Iran is becoming all too clear.


The new Iranian defense minister, Brigadier General Amir Hatami, strongly supports the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), its commander Qasem Soleimani, and the "resistance front." Hatami also stressed that he would promote the Iranian regime's missile program - particularly ballistic and cruise missiles - and would fight the American attempts to thwart the program and harm Iranian interests in the region. Iran is exploiting its contribution to the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria to entrench its status across the Middle East, creating a "Shiite crescent" to include Lebanon on the Mediterranean. The active and ongoing involvement of the Quds Force in the main Middle Eastern arenas, particularly Syria and Iraq, enable it and its proxies to gain combat experience, to augment the continuing logistical assistance by air, land, and sea, and to test a wide variety of new battle tactics (on land and at sea). Such tactics will likely be used in future rounds of warfare with Israel, including from the "liberated" Syrian territory.


Recent news stories suggesting that Ankara, Tehran, and Moscow are agreeing to cooperate in Syria's northern Idlib province and to bury the hatchet in Syria's civil war have brought to the foreground a key question: can Turkey become good friends, or even allies, with Iran and Russia in Syria and beyond? History suggests that any "handshake" between Ankara and its two neighbors will be difficult to sustain -- unless a rupture occurs in Turkey-NATO ties.


No matter how frequently Netanyahu visits Russia, Israel is facing a grim outlook along its northern border. Iran and Hezbollah are expanding their influence in Syria, increasing Assad's dependence on them for survival. Netanyahu's tough talk can't diminish the reality that Israel stands, for the moment, in a weakened position as a postwar Syria begins to emerge.


Russia and Iran will remain interested in cooperation on Syria. Yet, it is still difficult to see this relationship transforming into a full-fledged alliance. Although the drivers that bring Moscow and Tehran together are strong, the destiny of Russian-Iranian "marriage of convenience" depends on a number of factors. All in all, Russia and Iran were forced to become partners in Syria under the influence of existing circumstances. Consequently, their interaction is limited. Given the differences in motives of Russian and Iranian involvement in the Syrian quagmire and concerns existing both in Tehran and Moscow that the forming of a full-fledged alliance can harm their relations with third countries, it is possible to conclude that Russian-Iranian dialogue has already reach the maximum of its potential.


Almost 21 months ago, Qatar expressed solidarity with Saudi Arabia by recalling its ambassador to Iran after hundreds of Iranians attacked Riyadh's diplomatic facilities in Tehran and Mashhad in response to Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr's execution. Yet on Aug. 23, Doha announced that its ambassador would "return to resume his diplomatic duties" in Tehran. Undoubtedly, this move was indicative of the Saudi/United Arab Emirates (UAE)-led bloc's failure to pressure Doha into aligning more closely with its fellow Sunni Arab states. To the contrary, the Qatar crisis has pushed the emirate closer to Iran. Unless the 12-week dispute in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) gets resolved, the GCC can feel quite confident about Qatar pursuing deeper ties with Iran for its geopolitical benefit throughout the highly divided region. If the quartet (Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE) maintains its blockade on Qatar, it would be difficult to imagine Doha not becoming further invested in closer ties with Tehran out of mere necessity.






Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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