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Eye
on Iran will next be published on Tuesday, January 2.
Happy
New Year from United Against Nuclear Iran.
TOP STORIES
The U.S. and Israel have reached a joint strategic work
plan to counter Iranian activity in the Middle East.
Iranians angry over rising food prices and inflation
protested in the country's second-largest city and other areas
Thursday, putting new pressure on President Hassan Rouhani as his
signature nuclear deal with world powers remains in peril. The
protests in Mashhad saw police make an unspecified number of arrests,
local authorities said, though the country's powerful Revolutionary
Guard and its affiliates did not intervene as they have in other unauthorized
demonstrations since Iran's disputed 2009 election.
Imports of Iranian crude oil by major buyers in Asia
tumbled 29 percent in November from the same month a year ago to the
lowest volumes since April 2016, government and ship-tracking data
showed.
UANI IN THE NEWS
The last year for Iran has seen a number of important
transitions. [President Hassan] Rouhani was reelected. For years,
there was much hope in the West that Rouhani's presence would soften
Iran's policies, and I believe that this may have constrained a fair
amount of Western pressure against Iran. But we've seen in the
four-plus years he's been in place that he has not been able to
curtail the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and hardliner
activity-to include detention of Americans-that we need done. I
believe regional events in the coming year, and a tougher U.S. policy
on Iran, are going to limit Rouhani's options. We're watching JCPOA
enthusiasm in Iran waning... Rouhani is not able to deliver on the
improvements to Iranian living standards that were expected. Iran is
also entering a period where they're starting to think about
succession for the next Supreme Leader. Finally, the defeat of ISIS
is now being accompanied by a growing international acceptance that
something needs to be done to defang Iran's growing proxies
throughout the region.
... [W]hile we have just reason to celebrate the
destruction of the ISIS caliphate, make no mistake: Iran has
increased its threat in the region. That's only made worse,
obviously, by its continuing nuclear program, which barely paused for
breath after the 2015 Obama nuclear deal.
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
A week after Josh Meyer's Politico expose,"The
Secret Backstory Of How Obama Let Hezbollah Off the Hook,"
former Obama officials are still berating Meyer for his 13,000-word
article detailing how the Obama administration killed a nearly
decade-long DEA effort to stem a global Hezbollah
cocaine-smuggling-and-organized-crime ring to help secure its nuclear
deal with Iran.
SANCTIONS ENFORCEMENT
Post-sanctions integration in the international
financial sector has been one of the main challenges in the Iranian
economy since the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action in January 2016. As such, one could anticipate that Iranian
officials would welcome the emergence of cryptocurrencies as a
platform for international payments. Notwithstanding, the Central
Bank of Iran (CBI) has not yet officially sanctioned the use of
virtual currencies.
HUMAN RIGHTS
On Christmas Day, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe ate roast
chicken in prison and made a Christmas pudding, explaining to her
fellow prisoners that it is normally covered in brandy and set
alight. Her three-year-old daughter, Gabriella, was invited to the
home of the British ambassador to Iran, where she was given a
colouring book. Richard Ratcliffe spent the day without his wife and
daughter, and marked the occasion in restrained fashion. He said he
would not buy a Christmas tree, because he had promised he would not
do so until they could all decorate it together.
Following recent online news reports, Los Angeles area
Iranian Jewish community leaders have confirmed reports that the
Hadash Synagogue located in the southwestern Iranian city of Shiraz
was vandalized by unknown assailants on December 24th... Leaders and
activists in Iranian Jewish communities in Southern California and
New York have remained mostly quiet about the incident for fear that
what they say may be used as an excuse by the Iranian regime to
retaliate against the estimated 5,000 to 8,000 Jews still living
there.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Together with the talks in Astana aimed at ending the
Syrian conflict, Iran, Russia and Turkey are cementing ties as they
plan the post-ISIS Middle East. If this trend continues, then it will
have major ramifications for U.S. policy, the West and U.S. allies
such as Saudi Arabia and Israel.
IRANIAN DOMESTIC ISSUES
Anti-government demonstrators have taken to the streets
of Iran for a second day, with protests being held in a number of
cities.
Anti-government protests have erupted in several cities
across Iran, including the conservative northeastern town of Mashhad.
Based on the photographs and reports spreading through social media
outlets on Dec. 28, the crowds attending the demonstrations appear to
number in the hundreds or low thousands. But the unrest has grown
severe enough that security forces reportedly used tear gas and water
cannons to disperse the protesters. Details about the size, scope and
organization of the demonstrations - all critical factors to a
protest wishing to achieve its political objectives - are scarce.
Nevertheless, today's events are notable for two reasons: the message
they are intended to convey and their location in Iran's heartland.
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