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TOP STORIES
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei blamed
Iran's "enemies" on Tuesday for stirring up unrest in the
country, as the death toll from days of anti-government protests
climbed to 21.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Monday said his
country would respond to "rioters and lawbreakers," a day
after attempting to strike a conciliatory tone with protesters
demonstrating against the regime across the country.
Protests across Iran saw their most violent night as
"armed protesters" tried to overrun military bases and
police stations before security forces repelled them, killing 10
people, Iranian state television said Monday. The demonstrations, the
largest to strike Iran since its disputed 2009 presidential election,
have seen five days of unrest across the country and a death toll of
at least 13 with the slaying of a police officer announced late
Monday.
UANI IN THE NEWS
The context is that Rouhani has not been able to improve
living conditions as the Iranian people demand. We are now many
months since the July 2015 JCPOA agreement. Sanctions were lifted and
Iran gained access to billions of dollars of foreign exchange. Nonetheless,
living standards continue to sag and many in Iran felt JCPOA would
turn around the economy... [A]s more and more Iranians travel abroad,
they are seeing the economic success and living standards of the Gulf
and probably wonder why they can't have the same. At this point, the
Iranian government can't blame sanctions or frozen funds for their
problems. The issue is their own mismanagement although I have no
doubt they will repeat their claim that the U.S. has conspired to
prevent Iran from enjoying all of JCPOA benefits... [T]hese
demonstrations tell everyone that Iran's political foundations are
weak. We need to ask if Rouhani is a spent force or whether some even
overestimated his ability to bring about real change. He has been
leaning right in recent months, perhaps in an effort to ingratiate
himself with the IRGC to enhance his candidacy to replace Khamenei,
but his decisions in coming days will tell us much about where he can
take Iran.
The United States and its allies should, through public
statements, private messages, U.N. resolutions and whatever other
vehicles are available, clearly express their support for Iranians'
right to protest. They should also warn authorities in Iran against
any violent suppression of the demonstrations, whether such violence
takes place on the streets or - as occurred after the 2009 protests -
later on in homes and prisons, out of the public eye. Both the regime
and demonstrators should be made constantly aware that the world's
attention is fixed on them. If the regime resorts to violence anyway,
the international response should focus on diplomatic isolation...
Present-day officials, journalists and tech execs should... [be]
seeking to provide platforms outside Iran for dissidents to speak out
and supply accurate information to those inside Iran about both the
protests and the costs of the regime's policies, along with the
technical tools Iranians need to evade censorship and surveillance.
Finally, the Trump administration should consider how its broader
Iran policy affects what happens inside Iran. This is not to say that
the United States should be in the business of currying favor with
the regime's "moderates" - Washington has engaged in such
efforts over the decades, largely fruitlessly. Instead, the United
States can sharpen the choices facing Iran as a whole - and strengthen
the arguments of pragmatists arguing for a change in policy - by
raising the costs of Iranian regional adventurism and nuclear
pursuits while keeping the door open to diplomacy should Iran wish to
pursue its interests peacefully.
As with the Soviet
Union in its last days, the Islamic Republic can no longer appeal to
its ideals; it relies only on its security services for survival.
That is deadly for a theocracy, by definition an ideological
construct... Iranians are looking toward America to support their
struggle. Democratic dissidents always do so... Barack Obama has been
rightly castigated for his silence during the Green Revolution.
President Trump is right not to follow his predecessor's discredited
path. The White House should continue issuing condemnations daily,
including through Persian-language media outlets, and follow up with
sanctions targeting corruption and human-rights abuses. Congress
should rediscover its once-bipartisan determination to hold the
regime accountable for its crimes and push America's European allies
to overcome their mercantile greed and support Iranians striving to
be free from theocracy.
IRAN PROTESTS
The biggest wave of protests to hit Iran in almost a
decade has backed the country's leaders into a corner, and the Trump
administration is increasing the pressure by threatening fresh
sanctions if the government forcefully cracks down on the
demonstrations.
In an ominous turn of events in Tehran, the head of
Iran's Revolutionary Court warned Tuesday that arrested protesters
could face the death penalty when their cases come to trial.
The Iranian government reportedly blocked social media
and internet services on Sunday (31 December). The BBC reported that
social media and messaging services such as Telegram and Instagram,
which are locally popular, remained blocked over the weekend to
prevent protesters from organising demonstrations and propagating
their messages.
President Hassan Rouhani said Iran's economy which is
gripped by major challenges requires a major overhaul, urging all
state bodies to cooperate with the government to smoothly implement
the much-needed reforms. "Our economy needs major surgery, and
we ought to stand together [to make the changes]," Rouhani said
in a Monday meeting with chairmen of specialized parliamentary
commissions in Tehran, according to his official website.
Is it a revolution? Not yet. Iran's government is its
own worst enemy and the Iranian people know it. Economic woes leading
to infighting can bring down this corrupt and brutal system.
After nearly four decades of plunderous and fanatical
Islamist rule, Iranians are desperate to become a normal nation-state
once more, and they refuse to be exploited for an ideological cause
that long ago lost its luster. It is a watershed moment in Iran's
history: The illusion of reform within the current theocratic system
has finally been shattered. Iranians, you might say, are determined
to make Iran great again... The current uprising, then, poses a far
more potent threat to mullah power than its previous iterations,
because nationalism is a far more potent force than
liberal-democratic aspiration. If enough Iranians come to view their
regime as an obstacle to national greatness, the Islamic Republic's
days will be over-an outcome that is squarely in the U.S.
national-security interest... The Trump administration thus should
seek to influence the outcome. For all his other faults, President
Trump can address nationalism and nationhood in a manner that can
resonate at a moment like this... An opening such as the one
presented by Iran's revolution of national dignity may not come for
another generation.
While some have expressed hope these protests might
compel the Iranian government to try and address popular grievances,
history shows us the opposite is more likely true. In the weeks and
months to come, expect the regime to grow ever more repressive...
What should American leaders do, then? While carefully crafted
expressions of solidarity with the people, but not incitement, are
good for posterity, given Washington's meager leverage over Tehran
such statements likely have only limited impact... What's more
important than public statements are U.S. policies that can inhibit
the regime's coercive capacity and their ability to black out
communications. One concrete suggestion is to make it clear that
companies and countries around the world complicit in Iran's
repressive apparatus-including those providing censorship
technology-will face censure from the United States. The United
States should also mobilize global partners that do have working
relations with Iran-including Europe, Japan, South Korea, and
India-to add their voices of concern and condemnation to Tehran's
repression. EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini has been
noticeably silent.
In case anyone was wondering, Donald Trump, Hillary
Clinton and the rest of America's political class are with the
protesters in Iran. Statements have been issued. Tweets have been
tweeted. Virtue has been signaled. Like the last time Iranians took
to the streets, in 2009, these easy acts of solidarity are
self-satisfying. But they do not substitute for policy or strategy.
It's time for the hard part.
Imagine a free, democratic, independent and wealthy Iran
giving full expression to the beauty of Persian culture and the
brains and spirit of its people. Imagine a political, clerical and
military elite that doesn't steal its country's patrimony while
brutally repressing its own people and terrorizing its neighbors. We
are long-time friends who have disagreed vehemently on the wisdom of
President Barack Obama's nuclear deal with Iran... But we agree with
equal passion that Americans, regardless of party or position on the
nuclear deal, should be supporting the aspirations of Iranians to be
free from their brutal and corrupt rulers. That's the dream of the
tens of thousands of Iranians who have taken to the streets this past
weekend in dozens of cities across the country.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel expressed concern
on Monday about the death of protesters in Iran and appealed to the
Iranian government to respect people's rights.
Foreign secretary Boris Johnson on Monday called for
Iran to engage in meaningful debate about issues raised by protesters
which he said were "legitimate and important", as the worst
wave of unrest in almost a decade in the Middle Eastern country
continued.
Oil prices posted their strongest opening to a year
since 2014 on Tuesday, with crude rising to mid-2015 highs amid large
anti-government rallies in Iran and ongoing supply cuts led by OPEC
and Russia.
PROXY WARS
Iran spends hundreds of millions of dollars annually to
help allies fighting elsewhere in the Middle East and this outlay
appears to be rising, Israel's armed forces chief said on Tuesday.
IRAQ CRISIS
Iran re-opened two crossings with the Iraqi Kurdistan
region on Tuesday that it had closed after a referendum in favor of
independence in the Kurdish area, Iran's semi-official ISNA news
agency reported.
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