Don't meddle, but help create a template for Iranians to
act
by Michael Rubin
Los
Angeles Times
June 18, 2009
http://www.meforum.org/2165/create-template-for-iranians-to-act
As the Obama administration crafts its strategy, it should
not repeat the mistakes of the past. The Bush approach lacked cohesion and
coordination. A month after President Bush declared Iran part of the "axis
of evil," the deputy secretary of State said it was a democracy. And
although the White House talked tough -- much to the ire of the
pro-engagement crowd -- the Bush administration engaged the Islamic
Republic more than any administration since Jimmy Carter's, thereby losing
the trust of those seeking more sticks than carrots. Regardless of his
ultimate policy, President Obama must realize that the gap between
rhetoric and reality is inversely proportional to credibility.
So what should Obama do? The question is not whether to
engage or not, but how to integrate diplomacy into a comprehensive
strategy. Every strategy should have diplomatic, informational, economic
and even military components. Too often, Washington sequences components
when a comprehensive approach bolsters diplomacy's effectiveness.
Washington can no longer play checkers as Tehran plays chess.
Credibility matters. Adversaries test red lines wherever
they are drawn. Obama should not, like his predecessors, draw his in
pencil.
Moral clarity is also important. The president can support
broad concepts such as liberty and freedom without endorsing any
particular group. Obama should differentiate between the reformists and
ordinary Iranians. As journalist Laura Secor wrote
in 2005: "Iran's reform movement, for all its courage, was the loyal
opposition in a fascist state. It sought not to dismantle or secularize
the Islamic Republic ... but to improve it." Those Iranians most adamantly
opposed to U.S. assistance to civil society were those most loyal to the
concept of the Islamic Republic. This does not mean that Washington should
meddle or support any opposition group. Twenty years ago, a lone Chinese
student stopped a line of tanks in Tiananmen Square. The goal of our
intelligence agencies should not be to identify that student ahead of
time, but rather to create a template upon which ordinary people can
act.
Most of the budget for Bush's maligned Iran democracy
promotion went to Voice of America and Persian-language Radio Farda
broadcasts. Now that the Islamic Republic has clamped down on internal
media, the value of this information platform is clear. Raise Radio
Farda's budget 10-fold.
Lastly, the chief problem in the Islamic Republic is that
the government believes itself accountable more to God than to its
constituents. While workers go without wages for months on end, the
Iranian leadership invests billions in nuclear and ballistic missile
programs or exporting the revolution. If the Islamic Republic had to
answer to its overwhelmingly moderate citizenry, Tehran's behavior would
temper considerably. Bush missed a Gdansk moment when Iranian bus drivers,
under the leadership of Mansour Osanlou, formed the Islamic Republic's
first independent trade union. Sugar cane workers in Khuzistan followed
suit. Both forced the government to make concessions and be accountable to
Iranians. The development of independent trade unions in Iran is a trend
Obama should encourage.
Obama may want to engage Iran's current leadership, but he
should throw them no lifeline. It is the Iranian people who matter
most.
Michael
Rubin, a senior editor of the Middle East Quarterly, is a
resident scholar at the American
Enterprise Institute and a senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate
School.
Related Topics: Iran, US policy Michael
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