Weekly Think Piece ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Islamist Victory by 2020? The holy war against the infidels being waged by al-Qaeda and other Islamic terror
formations - will end in 2020 with the defeat of the West, predicts Author Fuad
Hussein. His book 'Al-Zarqawi - al-Qaeda's Second Generation' was
published at the end of 2005.
Though a couple of years old, it might be an interesting exercise to see how his
predictions turned out. But first, who is Fuad Hussein? As reported by Spiegel Online
International, Hussein has not only spent time in prison with al-Zarqawi,
but has also managed to make contact with many of the network's leaders. Based
on correspondence with these sources, his book details the organization's
master plan. There must be something particularly trustworthy about the Jordanian journalist Fouad
Hussein. After all, he has managed to get some of the the most sought after terrorists
to open up to him. Maybe it helped that they spent time together in prison many
years ago -- when Hussein was a political prisoner he successfully negotiated
for Abu Musab al-Zarqawi to be released from solitary confinement. Or is it
because of the honest and direct way in which he puts his ideas onto paper?
Whatever the reason, the result is that a film which Hussein made about
al-Zarqawi has even been shown on al-Qaida affiliated Web sites. "That
showed me that they at least felt understood," the journalist says. Hussein explains the seven phases that al-Qaedahopes to establish to create an
Islamic caliphate which the West will then be too weak to fight. The First Phase Known as "the awakening" -- this has already been carried out and was supposed to have
lasted from 2000 to 2003, or more precisely from the terrorist attacks of
September 11, 2001 in New York and Washington to the fall of Baghdad in 2003.
The aim of the attacks of 9/11 was to provoke the US into declaring war on the
Islamic world and thereby "awakening" Muslims. "The first phase
was judged by the strategists and masterminds behind al-Qaida as very
successful," writes Hussein. "The battle field was opened up and the
Americans and their allies became a closer and easier target." The terrorist
network is also reported as being satisfied that its message can now be heard
"everywhere."
We can say that Phase One has been accomplished. The Islamist propaganda
machine has done well in convincing a large portion of the Muslim population
into believing the West is waging war on Islam. The misquotes and missteps by
the current Administration lead credence to this belief.
The Second Phase "Opening Eyes"
is, according to Hussein's definition, the period we are now in and should last
until 2006. Hussein says the terrorists hope to make the western conspiracy
aware of the "Islamic community." Hussein believes this is a phase in
which al-Qaida wants an organization to develop into a movement. The network is
banking on recruiting young men during this period. Iraq should become the
center for all global operations, with an "army" set up there and
bases established in other Arabic states.
One can say they've been pretty successful at that. Case in point is the
greater threat from home-grown terrorists rather than those infiltrating from
abroad.
The Third Phase This is described as
"Arising and Standing Up" and should last from 2007 to 2010.
"There will be a focus on Syria,"
prophesies Hussein, based on what his sources told him. The fighting cadres are
supposedly already prepared and some are in Iraq. Attacks on Turkey and -- even more explosive -- in Israel
are predicted. Al-Qaida's masterminds hope that attacks on Israel will help the terrorist
group become a recognized organization. The author also believes that countries
neighboring Iraq, such as Jordan,
are also in danger.
Some of this has come to fruition. Jordan
has experienced al-Qaedaterrorism and Syria
is noted for harboring terrorists and their plans for attacking Israel.
The Fourth Phase Between 2010 and 2013,
Hussein writes that al-Qaida will aim to bring about the collapse of the hated
Arabic governments. The estimate is that "the creeping loss of the
regimes' power will lead to a steady growth in strength within al-Qaida." At
the same time attacks will be carried out against oil suppliers and the US
economy will be targeted using cyber terrorism.
We've seen signs of this. Saudi
Arabia is now actively fighting insurgent
elements in its country seeking to damage or destroy oil producing facilities
and overthrow the Saudi government. Yemen is experiencing an up tick in
Terrorist activity. We can only believe that this will get worse and spread to
the other oil producing emirates in the peninsula. How successful will al-Qaeda
be? Yet to be seen.
The
Fifth Phase This will be the point at which an Islamic state, or
caliphate, can be declared. The plan is that by this time, between 2013 and
2016, Western influence in the Islamic world will be so reduced and Israel
weakened so much, that resistance will not be feared. Al-Qaida hopes that by
then the Islamic state will be able to bring about a new world order.
The Sixth Phase Hussein believes that from 2016 onwards there will a
period of "total confrontation." As soon as the caliphate has been
declared the "Islamic army" it will instigate the "fight between
the believers and the non-believers" which has so often been predicted by
Osama bin Laden.
The Seventh Phase This final stage is described as "definitive
victory." Hussein writes that in the terrorists' eyes, because the rest of
the world will be so beaten down by the "one-and-a-half billion
Muslims," the caliphate will undoubtedly succeed. This phase should be
completed by 2020, although the war shouldn't last longer than two years.
So, how realistic is the 7 phases? The Spiegel article has its doubts. Nevertheless, there is no way the scenario he depicts can
be seen as a plan which al-Qaida can follow step by step. The terrorist network
just doesn't work like that anymore. The significance of the central leadership
has diminished and its direct commands have lost a great deal of importance.
The supposed master plan for the years 2000 to 2020 reads in parts more like a
group of ideas cobbled together in retrospect, than something planned and
presented in advance. And not to mention the terrorist agenda is simply
unworkable: the idea that al-Qaida could set up a caliphate in the entire
Islamic world is absurd. The 20-year plan is based mainly on religious ideas.
It hardly has anything to do with reality -- especially phases four to seven.
This analysis is wrong. Saying that the plan is absurd because it's based on
religious ideas shows a deep lack of understanding. Ideologies that have a
strong belief component - religious or secular - is what drives them to success
until they confront an ideology that is as strong and there's. And over the
last year there have been mumblings and debates from the Islamic World of where
the next Caliphate will be centered.
As for the 'Islamic Army', I have said in posts before that the tactic of
terrorism will have to eventually lead to the creation of a regular
conventional army if the Islamists want to achieve ultimate victory over the
West.
What is interesting is that major attacks against the
West are not even mentioned by Fouad Hussein. Terrorism here cannot be ignored
-- but it seems these attacks simply supplement the larger aim of setting up an
Islamic caliphate. Attacks such as those in New York, Madrid and London would
in this case not be ends in themselves, but rather means to a achieve a larger
purpose -- steps in a process of increasing insecurity in the West.
In other words, insurgents who use terrorist tactics can not win the war
themselves. To do that, like in every war before this, you must occupy enemy
territory to win and impose your ideology on the population. That means putting
boots on the ground. Like all other wars, there will be a theater of battle.
That theater stretches from North Africa through the Middle East through
south-central Asia to Southeast Asia and Malaysia. Some Islamic nation or
nations will lead the alliance in this war of fronts.
So we are left with an interesting phased development. How well it's executed is
yet to be seen.
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