Monday, May 14, 2012

Eye on Iran: Drawing of Structure Said to Shed Light on Iran's Secret Nuclear Work






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AP: "A drawing based on information from inside an Iranian military site shows an explosives containment chamber of the type needed for nuclear arms-related tests that U.N. inspectors suspect Tehran has conducted there. Iran denies such testing and has neither confirmed nor denied the existence of such a chamber. The computer-generated drawing was provided to The Associated Press by an official of a country tracking Iran's nuclear program who said it proves the structure exists, despite Tehran's refusal to acknowledge it. That official said the image is based on information from a person who had seen the chamber at the Parchin military site, adding that going into detail would endanger the life of that informant. The official comes from an IAEA member country that is severely critical of Iran's assertions that its nuclear activities are peaceful and asserts they are a springboard for making atomic arms. A former senior IAEA official said he believes the drawing is accurate. Olli Heinonen, until last year the U.N. nuclear agency's deputy director general in charge of the Iran file, said it was 'very similar' to a photo he recently saw that he believes to be the pressure chamber the IAEA suspects is at Parchin." http://t.uani.com/Kj76s3

WashPost: "Increasingly hard-pressed to find buyers for its petroleum, Iran has been routinely switching off satellite tracking systems on its sea-bound oil tankers for more than a month, in what U.S. officials and industry analysts describe as a cat-and-mouse game with Western governments seeking to enforce sanctions on Iranian exports. The unusual tactic was begun in early April and affects a quarter of Iran's tanker fleet, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), which has been monitoring the practice. The move, a violation of maritime law, is only modestly effective in cloaking 1,000-foot-long tankers as they ply the oceans in search of open ports and willing buyers. But it underscores Iran's precarious position as it faces ever-tighter Western restrictions against its oil industry, which provides the bulk of export and government revenue... One key impact of recent sanctions has been to choke off shippers' access to maritime insurance, nearly all of which is underwritten in Europe, Sen said. That has made Iran ever more dependent on its own fleet of 39 tankers, including 25 super-tankers, according to IEA figures." http://t.uani.com/LH5APN

AFP: "The UN nuclear agency pressed Iran for greater cooperation Monday in their first meeting since a 'failed' visit in February, with world powers watching closely ahead of their Baghdad talks next week. 'We are here to continue our dialogue with Iran in a positive spirit,' International Atomic Energy Agency chief inspector Hermann Nackaerts said as he went into two days of talks with Iran's envoy, Ali Asghar Soltanieh. 'It is important now that we can engage on the substance of these issues and that Iran let us have access to people, documents, information and sites,' he told reporters outside Iran's embassy in Vienna. In particular Nackaerts wants Iran to address claims made in an extensive IAEA report in November that at least until 2003, and possibly since, there were activities which could only conceivably be aimed at developing the bomb. He also wants access to the Parchin military base near Tehran where the IAEA report -- which cited foreign intelligence, its own sources and Iranian information -- said Iran had conducted explosives tests in a metal container." http://t.uani.com/J4lxBb


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Nuclear Program  & Sanctions 

CNN: "Ahead of upcoming nuclear talks, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad downplayed the threat Israel poses to Iran, comparing it to an annoying bug. 'Israel is nothing more than a mosquito which cannot see the broad horizon of the Iranian nation,' he said Saturday in northeastern Iran's Khorassan province, according to the semi-official Fars news agency... 'With the force of God behind it, we shall soon experience a world without the United States and Zionism,' he said then, according to another IRNA report." http://t.uani.com/K8OdUo

Reuters: "A senior U.N. nuclear official said Iran must give his inspectors access to information, people and sites as he began a two-day meeting with Iranian officials on the Islamic state's disputed atomic activities on Monday. The meeting in Vienna will test Iran's readiness to address U.N. inspectors' suspicions of military dimensions to its nuclear programme, ahead of high-stakes talks on the programme in Baghdad next week between Iran and six world powers. Two meetings in Tehran this year with U.N. inspectors failed to make any notable progress, especially on the inspectors' request for access to Parchin, a military site where the watchdog believes nuclear weapons-relevant research may have taken place. 'The aim of our two days (of talks) is to reach agreement on an approach to resolve all outstanding issues with Iran,' Herman Nackaerts, deputy director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told reporters as he arrived at an Iranian diplomatic mission in a smart area of Vienna. 'In particular, clarification of the possible military dimensions remains our priority ... It is important now that we can engage on the substance of these issues and that Iran let us have access to people, documents, information and sites.'" http://t.uani.com/JOmN7F

Reuters: "An exiled Iranian opposition group said on Saturday that Iran has some 60 scientists and engineers involved in a concerted and expanding programme to develop nuclear weapons under defence ministry auspices. However, diplomats say the National Council of Resistance of Iran has had a spotty record with allegations about Iran's nuclear work since exposing a secret uranium enrichment plant at Natanz in 2002. A top U.S. nuclear expert said the NCRI report, like previous ones, should be treated with great scepticism... 'Information ... shows that the clerical regime has expanded the organisation responsible for nuclear weapons development,' the report said. 'This finding reveals a complete and elaborate, and highly ... secret research structure and a network for procurement of the required parts and equipment.'" http://t.uani.com/L0c49D

NYT: "The lead negotiator for the six-nation group bargaining with Iran over its contentious uranium enrichment program said Friday that she hoped to achieve 'the beginnings of the end' of the dispute at the next meeting, to be held in Baghdad on May 23. The negotiator, Catherine Ashton, the European Union's foreign policy chief, did not offer specifics about the substance of the next meeting, the second since Iran and the so-called P5-plus-1 nations - the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany - announced on April 1 that they were resuming discussions after a lapse of more than a year. Both sides described the first meeting in Istanbul on April 13 and 14 as constructive." http://t.uani.com/Jc7hkI

Reuters: "The European Union will impose tougher sanctions on Iran if it fails to take concrete steps to allay international concerns over its nuclear programme, British Foreign Secretary William Hague said on Monday. Six world powers, including Britain, are due to meet Iranian officials for another round of negotiations over the nuclear issue in Baghdad on May 23. Hague said the EU wanted to see evidence that Tehran was now taking specific steps to reassure the world that its nuclear programme does not have a military dimension as many countries suspect. 'Now we wait to see some concrete steps and proposals from Iran,' Hague told reporters before a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels." http://t.uani.com/K9KLZz

Bloomberg: "An Iranian organization that insures ships against risks such as spills and collisions has been approached by Asian tanker operators about covering their vessels, the group's managing director said. Chinese and Taiwanese companies that manage tankers have inquired about obtaining insurance for tankers hauling crude oil, refined fuels or chemicals from the Kish Protection & Indemnity Club, Mohammad Reza Mohammadi Banayi, managing director, said today. The club, which covers 43 Iranian ships, isn't authorized to insure foreign vessels, he said. 'We are in a position to step in but we are not authorized to do so,' Banayi said by phone from Tehran. 'We have been contacted by lots of people in different parts of the world.' Asian shippers are seeking new sources of insurance for Iranian cargoes because the European Union's embargo extends to 95 percent of the world's tankers that are covered by the 13 members of the London-based International Group of P&I Clubs." http://t.uani.com/Jbk9OB

Terrorism

AP: "An Indian police team will visit Tehran this month as part of an investigation into the role of three Iranians suspected of carrying out a bomb attack on an Israeli diplomat's car in New Delhi in February, a police official said Thursday. The three-man team will seek information on the suspects' movements, 'when they left the country, when they returned, where they went, their phone records and financial transactions,' said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to reporters. 'We have some information here. We will get what the Iranian officials will provide. It will help us connect the dots.'" http://t.uani.com/J3Ud6u

Human Rights

BBC: "Political cartoonists, like other journalists in Iran, have to tread a fine line - taboo subjects change with the ebb and flow of the political power play among the ruling factions, making it difficult for commentators to determine the lines they cannot cross. For example, the lampooning of the clerical classes is generally not acceptable, but cartoons of former reformist President Mohammad Khatami, himself a man of the cloth, go unpunished. Current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not immune either - cartoons ridicule his looks and prominent nose. His falling out with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may have something to do this. So it came as a surprise when a cartoonist was recently sentenced to 25 lashes for publishing a caricature of a right-wing MP from Iran's Central Province." http://t.uani.com/Jc8uZn

Daily Beast: "A German-based Iranian is in hiding after his single was deemed an insult to a Shia imam. In an interview, the artist says Tehran is instigating outrage-and he fears a fatwa. Just days after the release of a song that led to heated reactions in Iran and a bounty on his head, German-based Iranian rapper Shahin Najafi told The Daily Beast that he is not going to apologize for his provocative work, as he does not see it as an insult. He accused Tehran's 'ruling system' of stirring up religious outrage." http://t.uani.com/LHd0m8

Domestic Politics

AFP: "Iran's telecommunications ministry has barred local banks, insurance firms and telephone operators from using foreign-sourced emails to communicate with clients, a specialist weekly said on Saturday. 'The telecommunications minister has ordered the use of domain names ending with .ir' belonging to Iran, Asr Ertebatat reported. The order prohibits banks, insurance firms and telephone firms using foreign hosts for their sites or to inform their clients using foreign providers such as Yahoo, Gmail, Hotmail or MSN, it said. The weekly said that individuals seeking to communicate with such firms must now use email addresses ending with iran.ir, post.ir or chmail.ir." http://t.uani.com/JbfR7Q

Foreign Affairs

Independent: "Iran spurned a previously undisclosed American offer from President George W Bush of talks aimed at reaching a 'grand bargain' over long-standing differences between Washington and Tehran, a leading figure in the country's theocratic regime has revealed. The proposal was made in 2004 - before the controversy over Tehran's suspected nuclear plans reached a crisis point resulting in sanctions - and passed on to Hassan Rowhani, head of Iran's supreme national security council at the time, by the then director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Mohammed el-Baradei. It was rejected on the orders of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Islamic system's most powerful cleric who has the final say over all state matters. 'The decision was taken by the nezam [system] that that we shouldn't at that point negotiate with America,' Mr Rowhani, who led Iran's nuclear negotiating team under the reformist former President Mohammad Khatami, told an Iranian magazine, Mehrnameh." http://t.uani.com/JvbseW

NYT: "As the top spiritual leader in the Shiite Muslim world, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has instructed his followers on what to eat and how to wash, how to marry and to bury their dead. As a temporal guide, he has championed Iraqi democracy, insisting on direct elections from the earliest days of the occupation, and warned against Iranian-style clerical rule. Frail at 81, he still greets visitors each morning at his home on a narrow and sooty side street here, only steps from the glimmering gold dome of the Imam Ali Shrine. But the jockeying to succeed him has quietly begun, and Iran is positioning its own candidate for the post, a hard-line cleric who would give Tehran a direct line of influence over the Iraqi people, heightening fears that Iran's long-term goal is to transplant its Islamic Revolution to Iraq... Iran's candidate, Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, 63, is an Iraqi-born cleric who led the Iranian judiciary for a decade and remains a top official in the government there. With Iranian financing, his representatives have for months been building a patronage network across Iraq, underwriting scholarships for students at the many seminaries here and distributing information." http://t.uani.com/KVGUk5

Opinion & Analysis


David Ignatius in WashPost: "Let's assume the signals from the White House and Tehran are reliable, and that Iran is serious about an agreement to remove its stockpile of 20 percent enriched uranium from the country and stop producing more. What happens then? This question of 'next steps' in the Iran nuclear talks is important, because neither side is likely to commit to the first set of 'confidence-building measures' unless it knows where the process is heading. Iran believes that it has been tricked in the past by Western peace feelers that didn't lead anywhere; the United States has the same wary suspicion. Both sides need more clarity. A compelling framework for future talks has been prepared by analysts from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The authors are George Perkovich, a leading U.S. scholar on proliferation issues, and Ariel Levite, a former deputy director of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission. In preparing the plan, the Carnegie team has had quiet discussions with U.S. and Iranian experts. The basic idea of the Carnegie proposal is to create a 'firewall' between Iran's civilian nuclear program, which it could pursue, and a military bomb-making program, which it couldn't. Along with separating permissible from impermissible, the Carnegie authors propose special procedures for dual-use technologies that are near the dividing line... So how could Iran fulfill this pledge in a way that reassures Israel and other nations that fear a nuclear-armed Iran? The Carnegie experts propose a red-yellow-green system, like a nuclear traffic light. In the 'green' approved category would be nuclear power plants, medical research reactors and basic academic and scientific research. Forbidden 'red' activities would be those directly related to weaponization, such as warhead design and procurement of items used in making and testing bombs. The 'yellow' dual-use activities would be the trickiest problem, and the firewall would have to be carefully constructed. Some enrichment of uranium might be permitted, for example, if it were verifiably limited below 5 percent - so it could be used for only peaceful purposes. So-called 'neutron triggers' would be banned, since they could be used to initiate a bomb's explosion, except for those configured for oil exploration, which would be supplied to Iran." http://t.uani.com/JySkfA

Yuval Porat in WSJ: "In the high-stakes international discussions surrounding Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons, Iran's 80 million people are often forgotten. So I, along with a small team of Israelis, decided to explore the driving forces of Iranian society. There have been signs, on the streets and over the Internet, of a battle raging between the country's Islamic fundamentalists and the proponents of freedom. The question we set out to explore is where the majority of the people stand. Soon we were joined by leading experts in the fields of social psychology, cross-cultural research, the Shiite Muslim religion, statistics, and dozens of Farsi-speaking volunteers. Circumventing Iran's 'electronic curtain'-as President Obama described the Iranian government's efforts to control contact with the outside world-our research team conducted telephone interviews in late 2011 and earlier this year with nearly a thousand Iranians. The latter constituted an accurate representative sample of Iranian society, including all of Iran's 31 provinces as well as a representative distribution of all ethnic groups, ages and levels of education. The interviews were conducted anonymously and the country the calls came from was concealed in order to ensure the safety of the respondents. To overcome the challenge of measuring the potential for freedom and democracy in an autocratic country like Iran, we had to innovate. Typically, researchers use questionnaires that include questions such as 'are you for or against democracy?' Or 'have you ever signed a petition?' However, citizens in authoritarian countries are often afraid to respond to such explicit questions, and if they do respond their answers are likely to be distorted by fear. Therefore we used a psychological questionnaire that measures the basic values of society without posing a single question in political terms. The questions described the views of a figurative third person and then asked the Iranian interviewee to what extent that person was similar to them. The third person was described in sentences such as 'It is important to him to make his own decisions about his life,' 'thinking creatively is important to him,' and 'it is important to him to be the one who tells others what to do.' ... Conducting the interviews in Iran, we were amazed by how forthcoming the Iranian people were. An analysis of the Iranian sample showed that alongside conservative values, such as conformity and tradition, Iranian society is characterized by strong support for pro-liberal values such as a belief in the importance of self-direction and benevolence. For example, 94% of the respondents identified with the sentence 'freedom to choose what he does is important to him,' and 71% of the respondents identified with the sentence 'being tolerant toward all kinds of people and groups is important to him.' ... Our findings demonstrate that Iranian society as a whole is characterized by a pro-liberal value structure that is deeply at odds with the fundamentalist regime. This presents considerable potential for regime change in Iran and for the development of liberal democracy." http://t.uani.com/JyPC9Y

Laura Secor in The New Yorker: "In February 29th, two days before parliamentary elections in Iran, I joined a few dozen foreign correspondents-along with official handlers-in the parking lot of the Laleh, a formerly five-star Tehran hotel with tatty rooms, an ornate lobby, and a surfeit of eyes. We had come to Iran to cover the election, but we were told upon arrival that there would be a compulsory program. Its first order of business was a bus trip to the Alborz Space Center, where we would learn about Iran's new remote-controlled satellite... We were here to waste our time, and the Iranians didn't care who knew it. The last time that most of the world peered inside Iran was in June, 2009, when, for two searing weeks, the Islamic Republic cracked open. In what came to be known as the Green Movement, a series of mass protests contested the official results of the Presidential election, which granted a second term to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has held the office since 2005. The Basij, a state-sponsored militia, crushed the demonstrations; photographs and furtive cell-phone footage captured young people in green fleeing down broken sidewalks, motorcycles at their heels. By the time of the Arab Spring, in early 2011, Ahmadinejad's election-year rivals, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, had been placed under house arrest, their mid-level operatives imprisoned and forced to confess on television to international conspiracy, their movement dubbed fetneh-'the sedition.' As the regime silenced the country's internal press and shunned Western reporters, the world lost sight of Iran's domestic life and focused instead on its nuclear program. Iran reopened its doors to the foreign press for the March 2nd elections, but the moment was an especially sensitive one. International tensions over Iran's nuclear ambitions were at a peak, a European embargo of Iranian oil was set to take full hold in four months, and Israeli officials were threatening to strike Iran's nuclear facilities. 'You are in a small box this time,' an Iranian journalist cautioned me. My visa was for only five days. Yet Iran, vast and restive, had a way of revealing itself, even in bad times." http://t.uani.com/JURJns

Ilan Berman in WT: "Since taking office in 2009, the Obama administration has made cybersecurity a major area of policy focus. The past year in particular has seen a dramatic expansion of governmental awareness of cyberspace as a new domain of conflict. In practice, however, this attention is still uneven. To date, it has focused largely on network protection and resiliency (particularly in the military arena) and on the threat potential of countries such as China and Russia. Awareness of what is perhaps the most urgent cybermenace to the U.S. homeland has lagged behind the times. That threat comes from the Islamic Republic of Iran. Conventional wisdom suggests that the Iranian regime - increasingly isolated as a result of mounting international sanctions and facing growing socioeconomic malaise - isn't an immediate danger to America in the cyberrealm. But those same factors have dramatically increased the potential for conflict in that domain between Washington and Tehran. So has Iran's expanding exploitation of cyberspace, which is driven by two principal strategies. The first is domestic repression. In his March 2012 Nowruz message to the Iranian people, President Obama alluded to the growing efforts of the Iranian regime to isolate its population from the outside world when he noted that an 'electronic curtain has fallen around Iran.' That digital barrier has grown exponentially over the past three years and now includes the construction of a new national Internet, which will effectively sever Iran's connection to the World Wide Web; the installation of a sophisticated Chinese-origin surveillance system for monitoring phone, mobile and Internet communications; restrictive governmental guidelines forcing Internet cafes to record the personal information of customers and keep video logs of all customers accessing the Web; and movement toward the formation of a new government agency responsible for the 'constant and comprehensive monitoring over the domestic and international cyberspace.' The second is the quiet conflict already under way with the West over its nuclear ambitions. Since the fall of 2009, Iran has suffered a series of sustained cyberattacks on its nuclear program. The best known of these is Stuxnet, the computer worm that attacked the industrial control systems at several Iranian nuclear installations between 2009 and 2010. But at least two other cyberattacks aimed at derailing Iran's nuclear development have targeted the Islamic republic as well. And while the origins of those intrusions are still hotly debated in the West, Iranian authorities already are convinced that conflict is under way - and are mobilizing in response. Thus, in recent months, Iran has launched an ambitious $1 billion governmental program to boost its national cybercapabilities." http://t.uani.com/IT41Lw

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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