Top Stories
WSJ:
"The European Union will carry out its planned review of its oil
embargo on Iran in June, EU diplomats said Thursday, and will also review
the timing of a ban on European companies insuring the transport of
Iranian crude oil exports. The review of the full oil embargo, which is
due to come into effect July 1, was promised in January as a condition
for gaining Greek support for the measure. The embargo was adopted in
response to concerns about Iran's nuclear program. The shipping insurance
ban was finalized in April but the U.K. won temporary exemptions to allow
European companies to provide liability and environmental insurance on
shipments of Iranian crude until July 1. It would require a unanimous
decision by all 27 member states to allow any change to the details of
the embargo and the shipping insurance ban. Diplomats have signaled
changes are unlikely. However with a second round of talks between Iran
and six major powers set to take place in Baghdad May 23 on Iran's
nuclear program, the review could give the EU some room for maneuver on
the measures." http://t.uani.com/KIbZxq
WSJ:
"Satellite photographs published by a Washington think tank appear
to back United Nations inspectors' concerns that Iran has been seeking to
cleanse a military site south of Tehran suspected of being used for
nuclear-weapons work. The online posting of the images by the Institute
for Science and International Security could have a significant impact on
a crucial month of diplomacy aimed at containing Tehran's nuclear program...
The IAEA has sought over the past year to visit the military site south
of Tehran, called Parchin, in the belief it contains an explosive chamber
that may have been used in nuclear-weapons development. IAEA inspectors
specifically asked to visit Parchin in February, but were denied access.
In recent weeks, the IAEA's director-general, Yukiya Amano, has publicly
raised concerns that Tehran might be seeking to cover up its past work at
Parchin. The Japanese diplomat cited continuing 'activities' at Parchin,
which Vienna-based diplomats said was a reference to cleansing activities
at the facility." http://t.uani.com/J34wSC
Bloomberg:
"Essar Oil Ltd., the operator of India's second-largest non-state
refinery, provisionally hired a crude tanker to load from the Iranian
port of Kharg Island, shipping data show. The Mumbai-based company
chartered the United Star to carry 130,000 metric tons on May 22 for
delivery to Vadinar, according to reports from three shipbrokers
including Galbraith's Ltd. in London. The Liberia-flagged vessel, classed
as a Suezmax tanker, is under way in the Persian Gulf. Provisional
fixtures are subject to changes or cancellation. Rabin Ghosh, a
Mumbai-based spokesman for Essar, declined to comment. The company, which
has a contract to import about 100,000 barrels a day of Iranian crude,
will buy 85 percent to 90 percent of agreed volumes, two people with
knowledge of the plan said on May 2." http://t.uani.com/LXguU0
Nuclear
Program & Sanctions
Reuters: "World powers must
not yield in their demand Iran abandon sensitive nuclear projects, Deputy
Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon said on Wednesday, arguing Tehran had been
allowed to 'dictate' terms despite being vulnerable to sanctions.
Speaking a day after the formation of a unity government that is fueling
speculation a preemptive war on Iran could be in the works, Ayalon voiced
cautious hope for a peaceful resolution from international talks with
Tehran due to resume on May 23. 'We would very much like the negotiations
to succeed, because a political solution is better than any other
option,' he said. 'At the same time, a bad deal would be worse than no
deal.'" http://t.uani.com/KNP91K
CSM:
"When Iran agreed to serious engagement with world powers over its
controversial nuclear program last month, it put special store in the
agreed upon process: a "step-by-step approach and reciprocity."
For the Iranians, that meant draconian sanctions imposed by the US,
European Union, and the UN would be eased with each concession from
Tehran. But as the next round of talks looms on May 23 in Baghdad,
questions are being raised about whether the US can - or even intends to
- ease sanctions no matter what steps Iran agrees to take. One senior
Iranian figure last week stated that Iran's 'minimum expectation' in
Baghdad talks is lifting sanctions... Administration officials say that
'sanctions relief is not on the table unless and until we see substantial
concessions' from Iran, says Suzanne Maloney, an Iran specialist at the
Brookings Institution in Washington. 'I don't think there is really any
give on the sanctions issue ... in part because in a political year, an
election year, with a Congress that is very solidly behind these
sanctions, it would be very difficult for the president to appear to be
waffling on them at all,' says Ms. Maloney." http://t.uani.com/KNQENh
Foreign Affairs
Daily Telegraph:
"Fazel Hadi Muslimyar, speaker of the Afghan senate, said the
Iranian ambassador had made the threat last week as he demanded senators
reject the deal between Barack Obama and Hamid Karzai. His intervention
triggered a diplomatic row as senators denounced his meddling in Afghan
affairs and called for his removal. 'He told me that if we signed the
agreement with the Americans then they would kick out the refugees,' Mr
Muslimyar said. 'We want the ambassador removed. They should send a
diplomat, not a dictator.' Iran has long lobbied against the partnership,
fearing it would result in American bases along its eastern border and
permanent encirclement by US forces." http://t.uani.com/JefoRf
Asharq Al-Awsat:
"Egyptian security sources have informed Asharq Al-Awsat that the
security apparatus in Cairo believe that Iran may be funding the
smuggling of arms - belonging to the former Libyan arm - into the Sinai
Peninsula in Egypt. The source added that the lack of security along the
Egypt - Israeli border has increased the concerns that a new attack on
Israel could be launched from Egypt's Sinai... As for the suspicions that
Iran is involved in the smuggling of arms from Libya into the Gaza Strip,
the Egyptian security source informed Asharq Al-Awsat that Iran might
continue its attempts to incite Egyptian - Israeli tensions by utilizing
hard-line groups operating from the Sinai Peninsula. The source also
revealed that Egyptian authorities had observed Iranian businessmen and
nationals, carrying western passports, entering the country following the
collapse of the Mubarak regime." http://t.uani.com/IMSemQ
National Post:
"A Toronto Islamic school's teaching materials, which have prompted
a police hate crimes investigation because of their portrayal of Jews,
were originally published by Iranian organizations, records show. The
passages of the East End Madrassah's texts that drew the most widespread
condemnation are excerpts from two books, including one published by the
Al Balagh Foundation in Iran. The other book, which contrasts Islam with
'the Jews and the Nazis,' was published by the Mostazafan Foundation of
New York, which the U.S. alleges was a front organization for the Iranian
government." http://t.uani.com/Ji4gAl
Opinion &
Analysis
David Albright and
Olli Heinonen in ISIS: "The recent nuclear talks
with Iran in Istanbul represent a significant gain for the United States.
These talks have established a step-by-step, or action-for-action,
process to prevent Iran increasing its nuclear weapons capabilities and
create confidence that Iran is not on a quest for nuclear weapons.
However, success is by no means assured. An Iranian decision to address at
least part of the evidence about its past military nuclear programs is
necessary to build confidence at this critical, initial stage that this
difficult negotiating process has a chance of achieving its ultimate
goal. It would be imprudent to assume Iran is acting in good faith about
the rest of its nuclear programs without addressing those past activities
which are at the heart of the dispute between Iran and the international
community over whether or not it intends to build nuclear weapons.
Only by understanding Iran's past military nuclear activities can
confidence develop that Iran is not seeking nuclear weapons today. Recent
evidence about Iran's past military nuclear activities at the Physics
Research Center (PHRC) provides an opportunity to start dealing with this
difficult issue. Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
have scheduled additional talks in Vienna on May 14-15 aimed at resolving
the IAEA's concerns about Iran's past and possibly on-going efforts to
make nuclear weapons. One way to increase the chances that these
talks succeed, unlike the two previous rounds, is for Iran to demonstrate
a new openness about discussing the PHRC's activities in the 1990s.
Iran should take the opportunity of the May meeting to commit to providing
both a revised declaration about the PHRC and access to its former
members. The success of the Istanbul talks has raised expectations that
in the next meeting at the end of May in Baghdad the United States can at
least lay the basis for an agreement where Iran would halt its most
threatening uranium enrichment activities. The priority is stopping
the further production of 20 percent enriched uranium, removing stocks of
enriched uranium, and freezing activities at the deeply buried Fordow
enrichment plant, including the installation of any more centrifuges at
this site and Natanz. Achieving these steps would make it more time
consuming at least during the next year for Iran to make weapon-grade
uranium for nuclear weapons, the most important and difficult part of
Iran making a nuclear weapon. But many believe that Iran does not intend
to make any real concessions and is using the negotiations as a ploy to
buy time for the further development of its ability to rapidly make
weapon-grade uranium and nuclear weapons. Underlying this suspicion is
the central uncertainty of whether Iran wants to acquire nuclear weapons.
It is imperative Iran concretely signal its commitment not to build
nuclear weapons. The most straightforward way for Iran to show such a commitment
is to cooperate with the IAEA. It wants Iran to address a range of
evidence about the past and possibly on-going military dimensions of
Iran's nuclear program. The evidence points to both a parallel military
nuclear program and programs to develop the nuclear weapon itself, often
called nuclear weaponization. Given that Iran has resisted cooperation
with the IAEA for several years and the evidence has meanwhile increased
substantially, this process is likely to be lengthy." http://t.uani.com/J36dPY
Patrick Clawson in
Foreign Affairs: "To judge the effectiveness of
Western sanctions against Iran, it is important to first establish their
purpose. U.S. officials and their European counterparts have set out a
number of different goals for the sanctions regime, including deterring
the proliferation of nuclear technology across the Middle East, as other
countries imitate Iran, and persuading Iran to comply with the UN
Security Council's orders to suspend all nuclear enrichment. The
sanctions have met some of those aims and failed to meet others. But for
the Obama administration, they have succeeded in one crucial way --
bringing Iran back to the negotiating table. The question, then, is not
whether sanctions have worked but whether the strategy they serve is
correct. To begin with, Tehran's decision to reenter discussions about
the future of its nuclear program represents a dramatic about-face.
During the January 2011 round of negotiations between Iran and the
so-called P5 plus 1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security
Council and Germany), for example, Tehran rejected any talk of its
nuclear program. For the next 15 months, it refused to meet until the P5
plus 1 accepted the precondition of Iran's right to enrich uranium. In
new talks in Istanbul this past March, however, Iran agreed to discuss
its nuclear efforts and dropped its precondition. The Islamic Republic
did not do this out of goodwill but because of tougher sanctions. By
demonstrating a willingness to negotiate and working closely with Europe,
the Obama administration has rallied many countries behind its efforts.
This broad coalition has established increasingly severe sanctions --
results that the United States could not have achieved alone. In March,
for example, the European Union banned the largest Iranian banks from the
Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, the main
institution used for transferring money between banks across the globe,
thereby crippling the ability of Iranian financial institutions to
conduct business. And earlier this year, the European Union began
imposing an oil embargo on Iran that has already reduced the country's
oil exports. In the last six months, these measures, along with Iran's
erratic economic policies, have robbed the currency of half its value
and, according to Iranian estimates, caused inflation to soar above 20
percent (and likely much higher). Iranian Central Bank Governor Mahmoud
Bahmani described the sanctions 'as worse than physical war,' proclaiming
Iran 'under siege.' And Iranian business leaders worry that more sanctions
are on the way, since the United States and Europe have made clear that
the longer the impasse over its nuclear ambitions continues, the more
economic and political trouble Iran will face... Whether or not diplomacy
results in an agreement, the sanctions have already fulfilled the core
objective of the Obama administration -- namely, kick-starting
negotiations. But that is not the right goal. Given Iran's poor track
record of honoring agreements, negotiations remain a gamble because they
may never lead to an agreement, let alone one that can be sustained.
Rather than focus on talks that may not produce a deal, then, the United
States should place far more emphasis on supporting democracy and human
rights in Iran. A democratic Iran would likely drop state support for
terrorism and end its interference in the internal affairs of Arab
countries such as Iraq and Lebanon, improving stability in the Middle
East. And although Iran's strongly nationalist democrats are proud of the
country's nuclear progress, their priority is to rejoin the community of
nations, so they will likely agree to peaceful nuclearization in exchange
for an end to their country's isolation." http://t.uani.com/K59UXo
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