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Top Stories
AFP:
"Talks between the UN atomic agency and Iran saw a 'good exchange of
views' and will resume on Monday, two days before world powers meet
Tehran representatives in Baghdad, the watchdog's chief inspector said.
'During these two days we discussed a number of options to take the
agency verification process forward in a structured way,' Hermann
Nackaerts said Tuesday in a joint statement to journalists with Iran's
ambassador Ali Asghar Soltanieh. 'We had a good exchange of views and we
will meet again on Monday,' he said. Soltanieh said: 'We had fruitful
discussions in a very conducive environment. We have made progress on
this issue regarding preparing and negotiating the modality framework for
resolving our outstanding issues.' Neither gave further details, including
on whether International Atomic Energy Agency access to the Parchin
military site was discussed at the talks at Iran's embassy here. A day
earlier Nackaerts had said he wanted to press Iran for 'access to people,
documents, information and sites' in its contested nuclear programme. In
particular Nackaerts wants Iran to address claims made in an extensive
IAEA report in November that at least until 2003, and possibly since,
there were 'activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive
device.' He also wants access to the Parchin military base near Tehran
where the IAEA report said Iran had conducted explosives tests in a metal
container. In two visits to Tehran in January and February, branded a
'failure' by Washington, the IAEA said Iran denied Nackaerts access to
Parchin and dismissed out of hand the claims made in the report as based
on forgeries." http://t.uani.com/JqGPIs
Daily Telegraph:
"The predicament of the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) shows
the impact of a series of measures, including a European Union oil
embargo due to come into effect from 1 July, on the central pillar of
Iran's economy. Instead of transporting oil to customers around the
world, 19 of the NITC's 34 ships are thought to be stationary, used only
for 'floating storage' the Daily Telegraph has been told. In all, the
giant tankers now lying dead in the water have a capacity of 33 million
barrels of crude, worth about £2.3 billion at today's prices. The fact
that Iran appears unable to sell this oil shows how much economic
pressure the country faces on the eve of negotiations on its nuclear
ambitions... Of the NITC's 25 supertankers, each able to carry 2 million
barrels, 14 are believed to be stationary, according to Whale Rock Legal,
a law firm specialising in sanctions compliance. Iran also has nine
smaller Suezmax tankers, each with a capacity of 1 million barrels. Of
these, Whale Rock believes that five are lying idle. The fact that Iran
is using valuable tankers for storage suggests that onshore holding facilities
at Kharg Island, believed to have a capacity of 23 million barrels, must
also be full." http://t.uani.com/Km0d70
Bloomberg:
"Iran's oil exports have the potential to fall another 300,000 to
500,000 barrels a day or more when the European Union's embargo takes
effect in July, according to Barclays Plc. The decline will extend
existing losses of 500,000 barrels a day, Barclays analysts led by Helima
Croft in London said in an e-mailed report yesterday. Iranian exports may
fall even further because of the unavailability of shipping insurance,
she said. 'The risk from the lack of shipping reinsurance is that in a
market in which fundamentals are set to tighten in coming months, any
loss of Iranian output sustainably beyond 1.5 million barrels a day can
provide a significant upside to prices,' the analysts said. The EU banned
the purchase, transportation, financing and insurance of Iranian oil.
That affects 95 percent of the world's tankers because they're covered by
the 13 members of the London- based International Group of P&I
Clubs." http://t.uani.com/JJ0HVA
Nuclear
Program & Sanctions
Reuters: "Communications from
the 1990s suggest Iran's current foreign minister, Ali Akbar Salehi, had
knowledge of a program to procure goods for an alleged clandestine
nuclear program when he was head of a university, a U.S. nuclear expert
said on Tuesday. David Albright, founder of the Institute for Science and
International Security (ISIS), said among 1,600 telexes and other
material he has obtained and is studying was a letter signed by Salehi as
head of Sharif University in 1991. The letter served as an end-user
guarantee to a European supplier of materials that could have a dual purpose
for use in a nuclear program. Tehran-based Sharif University, however,
was acting essentially as a front for Iran's military procurement
network, Albright said. 'Salehi knew about or was involved in efforts to
create an alleged parallel military nuclear program that is of great
interest to the IAEA now,' Albright told Reuters, referring to the
International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations' nuclear watchdog.
'And the intention of that program was probably to make nuclear weapons,
including producing highly enriched uranium,' Albright said." http://t.uani.com/JqlEqe
Reuters:
"Britain and France are studying a proposed European Union ban on
insuring tankers carrying Iranian oil to see how severe an impact it
would have on trade with non-EU countries, British Foreign Secretary
William Hague said on Tuesday. Asked in parliament about a May 8 Reuters
report that Britain was seeking to persuade fellow EU members to postpone
a ban on insurance for cargoes of Iranian oil, Hague confirmed EU
countries were discussing whether the insurance ban should apply from
July 1, or later. 'The reason we are discussing that separately is
because of concerns raised by other countries outside the European Union
about the impact on their trade and so we are currently assessing that,
working with France in particular to try to understand how serious that
impact would be,' he said. 'We are clearly applying sharply increased
pressure to Iran but we also have to bear in mind wider consequences for
oil prices and the world economy and balance those concerns.'" http://t.uani.com/K8blnw
Bloomberg:
"Taiwan resumed oil imports from Iran in March after ceasing
purchases a month earlier, according to data from Ministry of Economic
Affairs. The island nation bought 95,581 barrels a day from Iran in
March, data from the Bureau of Energy under the ministry showed. Taiwan's
March purchases amounted to three times the 31,935 barrels a day it
bought in January and the 30,247-barrel average in 2011. Iranian crude
imports declined 2 percent to 43,440 barrels a day in the first quarter,
according to the data. CPC Corp., Taiwan's state-run refiner, plans to
stop importing oil from the Persian Gulf nation in July because of
U.S.-led sanctions, company President Lin Maw-wen said March 26." http://t.uani.com/JGltWN
WSJ:
"Iraq replaced Iran as India's second-largest crude oil supplier in
the recently ended financial year, preliminary government data showed
Wednesday, as New Delhi cut shipments from Tehran ahead of impending
sanctions from the U.S. and the European Union. Saudi Arabia remained the
largest oil supplier, while Iran slid to fourth spot in the year ended
March 31, according to the data compiled by India's oil ministry. India,
which meets four-fifths of its crude oil needs through imports, has
expedited its diplomatic efforts to increase purchases from countries
such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq to compensate for lower
imports from Iran." http://t.uani.com/JqExJn
Terrorism
AP:
"An Israeli advocacy group won a $323 million judgment in a U.S.
court against Iran and Syria for supporting Palestinian militants that
killed an American teenager and ten others in a 2006 bombing, the group's
director said Tuesday. Nitsana Darshan-Leitner of the Shurat HaDin Israel
Law Center that represents victims of Palestinian violence said Tuesday
that the group had won courtroom victories against Iran but never before
against Syria. The center was representing the family of 16-year-old
Daniel Wultz of Florida, who was among 11 killed when an Islamic Jihad
suicide bomber set off his explosives at a Tel Aviv restaurant six years
ago. Daniel's father was severely injured in the attack. Darshan-Leitner
said that Iran supports the Islamic Jihad movement financially while
Syria had granted the group a haven to train in its territory." http://t.uani.com/L61oGk
Human Rights
WSJ:
"Iranian rapper Shahin Najafi expected his song calling on a Shiite
saint to save Iran from its current rulers to stir up controversy, but he
never imagined it might cost him his life. He is now being dubbed the
Salman Rushdie of music after two influential clerics in Iran issued
fatwas-religious edicts-justifying his murder on grounds of blasphemy. 'I
am still in disbelief. I'm only 31, with my whole life ahead of me,' said
Mr. Najafi in an interview from Germany, where he lives and, since last
week, has been in hiding under the protection of German police." http://t.uani.com/L69krh
Foreign Affairs
AFP:
"Iran warned on Tuesday that Riyadh's plans to form a union with
Manama would deepen the crisis in Bahrain, a day after Saudi Arabia told
Tehran to keep out of its relations with the tiny Gulf kingdom... Saudi
Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said on Monday that 'Iran has
nothing to do with what happens between the two countries, even if it
develops into a unity.'" http://t.uani.com/JqvBUC
Opinion &
Analysis
Ali Akbar Dareini
& Brian Murphy in AP: "The negotiating stance
from Iranian officials never varies: The Islamic Republic will not give
up its capabilities to make nuclear fuel. But embedded in the messages
are meanings that reach beyond Tehran's talks with world powers. It
points to the struggles within Iran's ruling system as it readies for the
next round of talks scheduled to begin next week in Baghdad. Iran's
Islamic leadership - which crushed an opposition groundswell nearly three
years ago and later swatted back a power grab by President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad - has now staked its political credibility on its ability to
resist Western sanctions and hold firm to its rights under U.N. treaties
to enrich uranium. Any concessions - either too great or too fast - could
risk internal rifts within Iran's power structure. And that could draw
powerful forces into the mix, including the Revolutionary Guard that acts
as defender of the theocracy and overseer of the nuclear program. As
talks deepen, so do the political considerations for an Islamic establishment
that cannot afford to appear to come away empty handed. 'Insisting on a
halt to enrichment is a deal breaker,' said Tehran-based political
analyst Behrooz Shojaei. 'It is Iran's red line.' 'Insisting on a halt to
enrichment is a deal breaker,' said Tehran-based political analyst
Behrooz Shojaei. 'It is Iran's red line.' This means smaller targets are
likely necessary to keep dialogue alive after the Baghdad session next
Wednesday between Iran and the six-nation group comprising the permanent
U.N. Security Council members plus Germany. A possible steppingstone goal
for the U.S. and allies is to seek to halt Iran's production of uranium
enriched to 20 percent levels, the highest-grade material acknowledged by
Tehran. The enrichment level is far above what's needed for Iran's lone
energy-producing reactor, but it is appropriate for use in medical
research. It also could be boosted to weapons-grade strength in a matter
of months. Iran insists it has no interest in developing atomic weapons,
but it sees its uranium labs as a mainstay of its technological advances
that include long-range missiles and an aerospace program that has
promised another satellite launch this month. There still could be some
room, however, for bargaining. Iran has signaled it could consider ending
the 20 percent enrichment. In return, though, it wants Washington and
Europe to ease some of the most painful new sanctions, including those
hitting Iran's oil exports and its access to international banking
networks. Such demands would directly test the West's flexibility.
Previously, Washington and European allies have insisted that Iran must
take the first step and suspend all uranium enrichment as required by
several U.N. Security Council resolutions. They also are under pressure
from Israel to avoid protracted give-and-take negotiations." http://t.uani.com/Jqrub3
William Maclean
& Fredrik Dahl in Reuters: "Facing an imminent
toughening of sanctions, Iran is hinting at a readiness to give some
ground in its long nuclear stand-off with world powers, but any
flexibility could split their ranks and lead to protracted uncertainty
about how to respond. The stakes are high, for the longer the impasse
goes on, the closer Iran will get to the technological threshold of
capability to develop atomic bombs, raising the odds of last-ditch
Israeli military strikes on its arch-foe and the risk of a new Middle
East war a troubled global economy cannot afford. A succession of
optimistic statements by Iranian officials and academics has raised
speculation that Tehran may offer concessions to its six main negotiating
partners in talks scheduled for May 23 in Baghdad, a move that could ease
regional tensions and soothe fears of a fresh spike in oil prices. Such
an offer would also be closely studied by Israel, which has threatened to
use force to destroy nuclear installations the Islamic Republic says are
purely civilian in nature but the West suspects are geared to gaining a
weapons capability. Any talk of a diplomatic breakthrough, though, is
almost certainly premature. Whatever concrete gestures are tabled by Iran
would test anew the cohesiveness of joint Western, Russian and Chinese
efforts to prevent an Iranian atom bomb capability, and might simply lead
to months of inconclusive consultations among its interlocutors about how
to answer Tehran's move, analysts say. Differences in how best to match
an Iranian offer - for example by suspending some sanctions in return for
Iran shelving enrichment of uranium to 20 percent purity, a level that
worries U.N. nuclear experts - could snag efforts to turn any such
initiative into meaningful movement towards negotiations. 'Don't expect a
Kumbaya (celebratory) moment. It's going to be a poker play' between Iran
and the major powers, French analyst Bruno Tertrais said. 'I would be
surprised if what happens in Baghdad was more than an agreement on
interim steps.'" http://t.uani.com/JgA0vp
Ray Takeyh in FT:
"Diplomacy is reclaiming a role in Iran's nuclear drama, but little
attention is being paid to a conflict of interests that is likely to
complicate Tehran's path to a settlement. The objectives of the western
powers are clear: a series of confidence-building measures yielding a
durable arms control agreement. Iran's Supreme Leader, however, has to
reconcile opposing aims. Ali Khamenei needs America as an enemy and a
robust nuclear infrastructure to legitimise his rule. For a long time, he
believed he could advance the nuclear programme at a tolerable cost to
Iran's economy. Yet now, persisting with convenient enmities will further
erode the economy - and could threaten his hold on power. Washington's
latest diplomatic gambit depends on whether Ayatollah Khamenei can
resolve this dilemma. As a recalcitrant revolutionary, Ayatollah Khamenei
has long pursued a confrontational foreign policy as a means of
reinforcing his regime's ideological identity. It is rational for the
leaders of the Islamic Republic to adopt self-defeating policies abroad
in order to buttress a certain ideological character at home. The
theocratic state needs an American enemy and some degree of estrangement
from the international community to sanction its grip on power. Enemies
lurking abroad, hatching imaginary plots, make it easier for Ayatollah
Khamenei to justify his revolutionary verities. Given this need for
useful enemies, he must carefully calculate the impact of any agreement
with nefarious westerners. Iran's quest for nuclear capability is also
rational, since nuclear empowerment has become a core element of the
Islamic Republic's strategic conception. An enhanced nuclear capacity
allows Iran to assume a more domineering role in a region beset by
unpredictable transitions. Moreover, the history of proliferation
suggests that nuclear-armed states receive more favourable treatment from
the international community in terms of resumed diplomatic and commercial
relations. The argument that a nuclear-armed nation is too dangerous to
remain isolated and must be reintegrated into the global system has
proved compelling over time. It is therefore no surprise that Ayatollah
Khamenei is averse to concessions that would arrest Iran's nuclear
trajectory. Despite its frequent professions of autonomy and
self-sufficiency, Iran depends on global economic structures. It subsists
on revenues derived from an export commodity whose price and means of
transport are determined by actors beyond its control. For Iran to sell
its oil, it requires access to global financial institutions, tankers
insured by European companies and customers that have alternative
suppliers. Can a state really reject global norms and yet benefit from
the prevailing mechanisms of international trade? And here lies Ayatollah
Khamenei's dilemma: his revolutionary foreign policy and his quest for
nuclear capability are increasingly at odds with the vulnerabilities of
his state. The Supreme Leader today faces a choice he would rather not
make. He would far rather persist with his anti-western rhetoric, while
incrementally expanding his nuclear apparatus and somehow managing Iran's
anaemic economy... Despite the limitations of the diplomatic process,
there is still much the west can do. After decades of sanctions and
pressure, the international community is finally placing Ayatollah
Khamenei in a position where he can no longer have both his enmities and
his economy. The western powers would be wise to stress that sanctions
will not be lifted until Iran takes a fundamentally different approach to
proliferation. The European boycott of Iranian oil scheduled for July
should therefore be implemented irrespective of the offers Iran is sure
to dangle between now and then. It is entirely possible that the Supreme
Leader will opt to preside over a country with a nuclear programme and a
permanently degraded economy. Still, the aim of allied diplomacy should
be to force him to make a choice." http://t.uani.com/JJ3iii
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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