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Top Stories
Reuters:
"A U.S. security institute says commercial satellite imagery shows
new activity at an Iranian military site which raises concern that the
Islamic state may be 'washing' a building the United Nations' nuclear
agency wants to inspect. The United Nations' International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) suspects nuclear weapons-related research may have taken
place at the Parchin military complex southeast of Tehran. Iran has
dismissed the allegations but has yet to allow the agency to visit the
facility, despite repeated requests. IAEA chief Yukiya Amano said last
week that the agency had recently noticed some 'activities' there. He
gave no details but Western diplomats suspect Iran may be cleaning the
site before any inspection. Tehran denies this. The Institute for Science
and International Security (ISIS), a Washington-based think-tank
specializing on nuclear proliferation, said it had acquired commercial
satellite imagery from April 9 which back up the IAEA's concern. 'The new
activity seen in the satellite image occurred outside a building
suspected to contain an explosive chamber used to carry out nuclear
weapons related experiments,' it said on its website in a May 8 report
including the satellite image." http://t.uani.com/K29QYq
Reuters:
"Britain is seeking to persuade fellow European Union members to
postpone by up to six months a ban on providing insurance for tankers
carrying Iranian oil, arguing that it could lead to a damaging spike in
oil prices, European diplomats said. A European Union ban on importing
Iranian oil, which takes effect on July 1, will also prevent EU insurers
and reinsurers from covering tankers carrying its crude anywhere in the
world. The impact of the measure is likely to be felt strongly in
London's financial district, the centre for marine insurance. Iran
exports most of its 2.2 million barrels of oil per day to Asia. The four
main buyers - China, India, Japan and South Korea - have yet to find a
way to replace the predominantly Western insurance shipping cover
provided by London insurers." http://t.uani.com/KEWR3I
Reuters:
"Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said on Wednesday oil markets would
remain well supplied even after fresh international sanctions against
Iran take effect, as global crude oversupply is already as much as 1.5
million barrels per day (bpd). U.S. and European Union sanctions on
Iran's oil exports take effect in June and July, and are aimed at
stemming the flow of petrodollars to Tehran to force it to halt a nuclear
program the West suspects is intended to produce weapons. Iran exports
about 2.2 million bpd, mostly to Asia, in a global market of around 89
million bpd. When asked if he saw oil supplies tightening in coming
months as global sanctions against Iran come into effect, Naimi said:
'Absolutely not'. 'There is today about 1.3 to 1.5 million barrels per
day (bpd) of extra supply over demand,' he told reporters in Tokyo after
holding talks with Japanese officials about energy supplies. Japan is a
major buyer of Iranian crude." http://t.uani.com/Jdspxl
Nuclear
Program & Sanctions
LAT: "Vice President Joe Biden,
seeking to reaffirm the White House's support for Israel and, in turn,
its tough stance on Iran's alleged efforts to gain nuclear weapons,
promised economic sanctions would have an effect on the Iranian regime
and predicted the current leadership's fall within two years. 'The U.S.
policy under Barack Obama is not one of containment. It is
straightforward. We will prevent Iran from acquiring a nuke by whatever
means necessary, period,' Biden said during his appearance at the 1,600
rabbi-strong international Rabbinical Assembly Convention in
Atlanta." http://t.uani.com/LbEmQS
AP:
"Israel on Wednesday accused Iran of stalling in negotiations over
its nuclear program with the international community, and said an
upcoming round of talks can succeed only if the Iranians agree to halt
all uranium enrichment... Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told
the visiting EU foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, on Wednesday that
Iran is 'playing for time' with these talks, an Israeli official said. Netanyahu
said the talks will be successful only if Iran agrees to halt all uranium
enrichment, ship its current stockpile of enriched uranium out of the
country and dismantle an underground enrichment facility near the city of
Qom. He demanded a 'clear timeline' for implementation, the official
said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the meeting was
closed." http://t.uani.com/JfsLhH
NYT:
"Admittedly, the timing was awkward. Secretary of State Hillary
Rodham Clinton arrived in New Delhi this week after declaring that India
should reduce imports of Iranian oil and comply with Western sanctions.
Yet across town, India and Iran were trying to figure out ways to do
business together. In the main ballroom of a five-star hotel, an Iranian
trade delegation met with Indian exporters, exchanging cards, sipping tea
and nibbling on cookies. The Iranians met one Indian trade group on
Monday, another on Tuesday and had more meetings planned in the country's
financial capital, Mumbai - a business courtship seemingly in open
defiance of Mrs. Clinton's hard line. 'I am sure the future of India-Iran
trade is very good,' said Yahya Al Eshagh, president of the Tehran
Chamber of Commerce, Industries and Mines and the leader of the Iranian
delegation... 'India is clearly making an effort to reduce its dependence
on Iran, and this is recognized by the U.S.,' said Harsh V. Pant, an
India specialist at King's College in London, in an e-mail. 'But
domestically, the Indian government cannot be seen to be buckling under
any sort of U.S. pressure. So there is a lot of talk of expanding trade
ties with Iran.'" http://t.uani.com/JwvHHu
WSJ:
"An Iranian trade delegation to India has sealed deals to buy
shipments of rice, sugar and soybean from the South Asian country as part
of a plan for Tehran to increase trade with India to get around U.S.
financial sanctions on its oil shipments. India has been unable to pay in
full for Iranian oil imports because of tightening U.S. sanctions that
have made it difficult to get access to U.S. dollars for transactions
with Iran. Instead, Iran has agreed to accept payment in Indian
rupees and sent a trade delegation to India this week to look for goods
to buy with the money it earns." http://t.uani.com/JfqoLI
Reuters:
"India's crude oil imports from Iran declined by about 34 percent in
April compared with March, deeper than expected and the first evidence of
New Delhi implementing cuts in supplies from the sanctions-hit nation
under annual deals that began last month. State-run buyers are at the forefront
of reductions, leaving privately-owned Essar the biggest Indian client of
Iran, tanker discharge data showed, just as the U.S. praised steps taken
by India's refiners to back Washington's pressure on Tehran." http://t.uani.com/IQ3bTE
Foreign Affairs
WSJ:
"Iran is raising pressure on Afghanistan to scuttle a newly signed
security accord with the U.S., threatening to deport Afghan refugees and
migrant workers if Afghanistan's parliament ratifies the deal. Fazal Hadi
Muslimyar, the speaker of Afghanistan's upper house of parliament, told
The Wall Street Journal that Tehran's newly appointed ambassador to Kabul
told Afghan lawmakers last week that they should not ratify the
U.S.-Afghan Strategic Partnership Agreement. Signed by Presidents Barack
Obama and Hamid Karzai in Kabul last week, the deal outlines what
military and political role the U.S. will play in Afghanistan after most
foreign forces withdraw in 2014. Tehran has made no secret of its
displeasure with the accord. Ramin Mehmanparast, the spokesman for Iran's
foreign ministry, said Sunday that the presence of U.S. forces was
destabilizing the region, and that peace could be achieved in Afghanistan
only by the complete withdrawal of foreign troops." http://t.uani.com/JeenrL
The Hill:
"Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) on Tuesday warned that Iran's 'global
ambitions' are a threat to democracies in Central and Latin America. The
Speaker told members of the Council of the Americas he wants to see 'the
entire Western Hemisphere [become] a free enterprise zone - free markets,
free trade and free people,' but cautioned that Iran could stand in the
way. Boehner, who led a congressional delegation to Latin America earlier
this year, said Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit to Cuba and
Venezuela shows Tehran is looking to establish a foothold in the
Americas. '[Ahmadinejad's] trip underscored the designs Iran has for
expanding its influence in Latin America, and its eagerness to forge
bonds with governments in the Western Hemisphere that have demonstrated a
lesser interest in freedom and democracy,' Boehner told the audience of
diplomats and international business people." http://t.uani.com/Jfpgrt
Opinion &
Analysis
Thomas Joscelyn in
The Long War Journal: "Do Osama bin Laden's files
disprove the idea that al Qaeda and Iran collude against their common
enemies? The answer to that question would be affirmative, according to a
report published by the Combating Terrorism Center (CTC) at West Point on
May 3. CTC's analysts concluded: 'References to Iran [in bin Laden's
files] show that the relationship is not one of alliance, but of indirect
and unpleasant negotiations over the release of detained jihadis and
their families, including members of Bin Ladin's family.' The CTC went on
to characterize the relationship between al Qaeda and Iran as
'antagonistic.' The CTC's report was based on a slim release of just 17
declassified documents, and only some of those deal with Iran. Thousands
of other files seized during the Abbottabad raid have been translated but
were not included in the CTC's release. The CTC's broad conclusion about
Iran and al Qaeda is based on a narrow set of documents that focus on the
abduction of an Iranian diplomat named Hesmatollah Atharzadeh and other
unspecified covert activities. Al Qaeda had pressured Iran to speed up
the release of al Qaeda operatives and family members in exchange for
Atharzadeh's freedom. According to senior US intelligence officials
contacted by The Long War Journal, however, the documents dealing with
this tense detainee exchange present just one window on a broader
relationship. Other documents from bin Laden's files that were not
included in the document release point to instances of collusion between
al Qaeda and Iran. Some of the documents not included in the CTC's
release deal with a top al Qaeda operative known as Yasin al Suri,
according to one senior US intelligence official. This same official said
that the documents pertaining to al Suri in bin Laden's files were used
to support the US Treasury Department's July 28, 2011 terrorist
designation of al Suri and five other al Qaeda operatives who are part of
an Iran-based network that exists under an 'agreement' between the
Iranian government and al Qaeda. 'Iran is the leading state sponsor of
terrorism in the world today,' Under Secretary for Terrorism and
Financial Intelligence David S. Cohen said when announcing the
designation. 'By exposing Iran's secret deal with al Qaeda allowing it to
funnel funds and operatives through its territory, we are illuminating
yet another aspect of Iran's unmatched support for terrorism. Today's
action also seeks to disrupt this key network and deny al Qaeda's senior
leadership much-needed support.' The Treasury Department described al Suri
as 'an Iran based senior al Qaeda facilitator currently living and
operating in Iran under an agreement between al Qaeda and the Iranian
government.' Treasury also described al Suri's network as a 'core
pipeline through which al Qaeda moves money, facilitators and operatives
from across the Middle East to South Asia, including to Atiyah Abd al
Rahman, a key al Qaeda leader based in Pakistan, also designated today.'
Rahman was subsequently killed in a US drone strike in August 2011. On
Dec. 22, 2011, the US Treasury Department and State Department announced
that a reward of $10 million was being offered for information leading to
al Suri's capture. The reward is one of the highest offered by the US
government for any terrorist." http://t.uani.com/IXRaxu
See Part 2 of the Iran-Al Qaeda Analysis Here: http://t.uani.com/J0evIB
John Vinocur in
IHT: "In the run-up to the French presidential
election, the Iranian newspaper Tehran Emrooz wrote that 'emphasis must
be given to the advantages of a victory by François Hollande.' Widely
reported in the French press and blog world, the comment came from a
publication described as run by the mayor of Tehran, who is reportedly
close to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Some French bloggers
treated it as Loony Tunes stuff from Mullahland. But the editorial had a
matter-of-fact, non-hysterical tone. 'A victory will lead to a softening
of Paris' policies toward Iran,' it said. 'France under Sarkozy was the
strong voice in the European Union against Iran. Hollande's victory will
bring nuances to this approach.' That's bang-on correct about Sarkozy. He
was the hand holding the prod that pushed Europe toward enacting
sanctions on Iranian oil scheduled to take effect July 1. And he took
pride in policies repeatedly jabbing at what France maintained were the
Obama administration's illusions and foot-dragging concerning Iran's
drive for nuclear weapons. While Sarkozy was president, a bipartisan
French National Assembly report took a shot at President Obama for frittering
away a whole year in the nuclear countdown with his failed 'outstretched
hand' initiative. The French proposed an Iran oil embargo at the United
Nations only to have it shelved for a softer, embargo-less American
proposal. No country had a tougher stance. France believed that the best
way to head off an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear sites was by
intensifying sanctions, wary diplomacy, and an unyielding interpretation
of the constraints placed by the U.N. Security Council on the mullahs'
atomic ambitions. But what about Hollande? Will there be nuances in his
approach - exactly what the Iranian commentary expected to see - that
dilute the hard French line on nonproliferation and sanctions?" http://t.uani.com/JrS03n
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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