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Top Stories
Bloomberg:
"AdaptiveMobile Security Ltd. ended its contracts with an Iranian
phone company following the disclosure that the closely held firm
supplied and serviced technology for monitoring and storing text
messages. AdaptiveMobile, based in Dublin, stopped doing business with
MTN Irancell, Iran's second-largest mobile provider, as of May 24,
according to United Against Nuclear Iran, a New York- based advocacy
organization that pressures companies to cut business ties to Iran. The
group cited an e-mail from AdaptiveMobile. Iranian authorities use
surveillance technologies to round up and interrogate political
activists, according to accounts provided by victims and human rights
groups. AdaptiveMobile sold technology for monitoring and storing text
messages to Irancell in 2008, Bloomberg News reported last October. The
company was still servicing the commercial gear. Police have access to
the system, two former MTN Irancell managers said. 'We applaud
AdaptiveMobile for ending its business in Iran,' said Kristen Silverberg,
president of United Against Nuclear Iran, in a statement. 'AdaptiveMobile
has made the responsible decision, and we encourage other
telecommunications companies to follow suit.'" http://t.uani.com/KmdaOG
Reuters:
"France's Bureau Veritas, which verifies the safety and
environmental standards of ships, has stopped its marine work in Iran,
the classification society said in a new setback for Tehran as it faces
growing pressure from Western sanctions. Without the necessary
verification from such bodies, ships are unable to call at international
ports. The move follows a similar decision in April by British
classification society Lloyd's Register to halt operations in Iran...
U.S.-based United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), which has been among pressure
groups opposed to the Islamic Republic's nuclear ambitions, said it had
urged Bureau Veritas to stop providing cover for Iranian vessels... In a
letter addressed to UANI this week, Bureau Veritas said that following
discussions with French government authorities it had decided to
'disengage completely' from all marine activities related to Iran...
Pressure group UANI, which had previously said Bureau Veritas's
certification activities were in violation of EU sanctions, welcomed the
move. 'We accept Bureau Veritas's pledge to end all of its marine
activities related to Iran,' said UANI chief executive Mark Wallace, a
former U.S. ambassador. 'The international community must focus
specifically on the shipping industry, to deny the Iranian regime access to
global trade and seaborne crude oil exports.'" http://t.uani.com/Mho5J1
NYT:
"Senior inspectors from the United Nations nuclear watchdog renewed
talks with Iran on Friday aimed at securing access to restricted sites
where the agency believes scientists may have tested explosives that
could be used as triggers for nuclear warheads, officials at the agency
said. The discussions at the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna
are separate from the broader talks between Iran and world powers on its
contested nuclear program, which are to resume in Moscow later this month
after an inconclusive round in Baghdad in May. But the more technical
discussions in Vienna are seen as offering a clue to Iran's readiness to
adopt a more cooperative attitude as a deadline looms on July 1 for
tighter sanctions on its oil and banking industries." http://t.uani.com/KgGue7
Nuclear
Program
Reuters: "World powers will
insist on Iran curbing its production of high-grade uranium at the next
round of nuclear talks in Moscow, a senior European Union negotiator told
her counterpart in Tehran on Thursday. In a letter to Tehran, the
European Union's Helga Schmid said an offer by the six powers trying to
resolve a standoff with Iran over its nuclear work, proposed at talks in
Baghdad in May, was still on the table. The six countries - the United
States, China, Russia, Germany, France and Britain - have asked Tehran to
stop enriching uranium to 20 percent to address their concerns that the
Iranian nuclear work aims to produce weapons. But Schmid said more talks
on the details of the proposal were needed. 'We would feel very
encouraged if Iran were ready ... to enter into these discussions,' she
wrote in a letter, seen by Reuters, to Iran's deputy negotiator Ali
Bagheri. EU diplomats negotiate with Iran on behalf of the six
powers." http://t.uani.com/LIwI00
RFE/RL:
"Parchin, a large military complex located southeast of Tehran, is
one of the key pieces of the puzzle that is Iran's nuclear program -- a
puzzle the United Nations' nuclear watchdog has been long trying to
solve. On June 8 in Vienna, UN nuclear negotiators will sit down with
Iranian officials to discuss their suspicions about military aspects of
Iran's nuclear program. With Parchin on the agenda, here's some of what
makes it a likely topic of discussion." http://t.uani.com/LzIyeL
Sanctions
Reuters:
"The United States will announce a new list of countries that will
receive exceptions to financial sanctions on oil trade with Iran as soon
as early next week, a government official said on Thursday. Not all of
Iran's oil buyers are likely to get the waivers, said the source, who
declined to elaborate. Around two thirds of Iran's crude exports flow to
Asia, where the biggest buyers are China, Japan, India and South Korea.
The United States granted Japan an exception in March and has signaled it
has had good talks with South Korea about reducing oil purchases.
Refiners in South Korea will switch to other sources on July 1, industry
sources have said. But the U.S. may withhold waivers for China and
Singapore, according to an advocate of tougher sanctions on Iran,
stepping up pressure on Iran's biggest crude oil buyer and a major
destination for its fuel oil exports." http://t.uani.com/MsgsPg
Reuters:
"Through a combination of somewhat fortuitous factors, the imminent
imposition of Western sanctions on Iran is shaping up as a bit of a
non-event for Asian crude buyers. The U.S. and European measures that
start late this month and next aim to halt Iranian shipments of oil to
Europe and impact those to the rest of the world by limiting the ability
to pay or insure cargoes. But far from being a major worry for Asia,
replacing much of the about 1.5 million barrels day that the region used
to buy from Tehran has been fairly easy. Fortuitous factor number one is
Greece, or more specifically the economic woes in Europe caused by the
ongoing sovereign debt crisis that is at its worst in the Mediterranean
nation. There is some irony insofar as a weakening economic outlook has
actually helped Europe achieve its aim of keeping oil prices under
control even as it plans to shut off imports from Iran, which totaled
740,000 barrels a day last year... Fortuitous factor number two is the
faster-than-forecast slowing in China's economic growth rate, which is
manifesting itself in weaker commodity imports." http://t.uani.com/MhEY97
Reuters:
"The global oil market is well supplied and can cope with the loss
of Iranian crude to Western sanctions, oil officials and executives,
including the heads of Total and Royal Dutch Shell, said this week. An
increase in global crude supplies and falling crude prices have helped
cushion the impact of sanctions targeting Iran's controversial nuclear
programme. 'The market is well supplied. There is no shortage,' the head
of French oil firm Total said at a conference in Malaysia when asked if
he was concerned about the loss of Iranian supply on the oil market.
Total's Chief Executive Christophe de Margerie added that Brent crude
prices had seen 'a very important decrease.' Brent crude was trading just
under $99 per barrel on Friday after dropping to a 16-month low below $96
a barrel earlier this week." http://t.uani.com/KOjP8g
Reuters:
""India's Essar Oil, one of Iran's key Indian clients, has
significantly reduced purchases from the santions-hit nation in May and
switched to Latin American grades, which accounted for about a third of
its overall imports during the month, tanker discharge data made
available to Reuters show. Essar, which earlier this week completed an
expansion of its Vadinar refinery in western Gujarat state to double
capacity to 400,000 barrels per day (bpd), stepped up imports from Iran
in January-March to meet last fiscal year's commitment and build stocks
by July when tighter sanctions come into effect, making payments,
insurance and supplies more uncertain." http://t.uani.com/KDeP7a
WSJ:
"India's plan to use a rupee payment mechanism for oil imports from
Iran in exchange for agricultural commodities such as wheat and rice has
been hit by delays amid lack of clarity on the differential tax treatment
promised in this year's federal budget. With the Finance Ministry yet to
notify the new tax regime for such transactions, state-run Indian oil
companies have held back from transferring rupee funds into local bank
accounts against crude oil imports from Iran, which is facing U.S
sanctions. With dollar payments for Iranian oil becoming difficult after
the sanctions, Iran had, in March, agreed to accept payment in Indian
rupees which it could use for import of agricultural commodities and
other items from the later. Since then, businessmen on both sides have
signed deals for the shipment of commodities such as rice, wheat, soymeal
and pharmaceutical products." http://t.uani.com/Nmsijn
FrontPageAfrica:
"Under scrutiny in Liberia over a controversial arrangements, the
mobile giant, MTN the corporate partner of Lonestar Cell is being
investigated by South Africa's elite Hawks police into allegations of
corruption at MTN relating to its purchase of a cellular license in
Iran... Adding more fuel to the fire, the United Against Nuclear Iran
(UANI) CEO, Ambassador Mark D. Wallace, issued a statement Tuesday
following reports that MTN evaded U.S. sanctions in order to send
sophisticated American computer equipment to Iran, and is being
investigated by its own government for bribery and corruption in Iran --
where MTN allegedly promised the Iranian regime that South Africa would
vote against sanctioning Iran's nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/KDanVP
Reuters:
"The United States is disappointed that Switzerland has not yet
adopted the European Union's embargo on Iranian oil, the U.S. Ambassador
to Switzerland said, adding that he did not expect the country to permit
a legal loophole in the long run. Switzerland, a major physical oil
trading hub and base for Iranian state-owned oil trading firm Naftiran
Intertrade Company, extended an Iran blacklist in April but postponed a
decision on the EU ban until a 'later date'. It also exempted Iran's
central bank from its asset freeze. 'We expressed our disappointment. We
would like them to do it [follow the EU on Iran sanctions],' Donald S.
Beyer told a news conference in Geneva on Wednesday." http://t.uani.com/NmuuaA
Foreign Affairs
Bloomberg:
"The suggested involvement of Iran in ending Syria's political
strife has pitted Russia against the U.S. as a United Nations peace plan
unraveled with shots fired at observers of a UN-backed truce. With his
cease-fire agreement in tatters, UN envoy Kofi Annan warned the General
Assembly that more needs to be done to prevent Syria from sliding into
civil war after two massacres less than two weeks apart. He joined Russia
in wanting Iran, as a country with influence in Syria, to assist efforts
to seek a possible successor to President Bashar al-Assad... Still, the
initiative was immediately rejected by U.S Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton, and at the UN, the U.S. position has not changed. 'I think Iran
is part of the problem,' U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice told reporters
yesterday after a day of briefings on Syria. 'There is no question that
it is actively engaged in supporting the government in perpetuating
violence on the ground.'" http://t.uani.com/MRc5ns
Opinion &
Analysis
Colin Kahl,
Matthew Irvine & Melissa Dalton in FP: "As
Iran's nuclear progress continues, the risk of an Israeli preventive
strike grows. Given ongoing talks between Iran and the permanent members
of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany (the so-called P5+1), an
Israeli attack may not be imminent. But after inconclusive negotiations
in Istanbul in April and Baghdad in May, we can expect the drums of war
to beat even louder in Jerusalem if the third round of talks, scheduled
to begin in Moscow on June 18, fails to produce results. As we argue in a
new report published by the Center for a New American Security, some of
the potential dangers to Israel from a nuclear-armed Iran have been
exaggerated. For example, despite the abhorrent threats by some Iranian
leaders to 'wipe Israel off the map,' the actual behavior of the Islamic
Republic over the past three decades indicates that the regime is not
suicidal and is sufficiently rational for the basic logic of nuclear
deterrence to hold. Iran is therefore unlikely to deliberately use
nuclear weapons against Israel or enable a terrorist group to do so. At
the same time, a nuclear-armed Iran would be a much more dangerous
adversary. Believing that its nuclear deterrent immunized it against
retaliation, the Iranian regime would probably increase lethal support to
proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas and commit more brazen acts of
terrorism abroad. The already-tense Israeli-Iranian rivalry would become
more crisis-prone, and these crises would entail some inherent risk of
inadvertent nuclear war. Preventing Iran from achieving nuclear weapons
should therefore remain an urgent priority. Rushing into preventive war,
however, would risk making the threat worse. Until Iran appears poised to
weaponize its nuclear capability, the emphasis should remain on using
economic pressure and diplomacy to convince the Iranians to change
course. All options, including preventive military action, should remain
on the table. But force should be seen as a last resort; it should be
contemplated only by the United States, and it should be employed only
under stringent conditions... Given the threat posed by Iran's nuclear
ambitions, the option of using force should remain on the table. But the
high risks and uncertain rewards mean it should be employed only if: (1)
all nonmilitary options have been exhausted; (2) Iran has made a clear
move toward weaponization; (3) there is a reasonable expectation that a
strike would significantly set back Iran's program; and (4) a
sufficiently large international coalition is available first to help
manage the destabilizing consequences of the strike and then to contain
Iran and hinder it from rebuilding its nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/Ld3V2R
Guy Bechor in
YnetNews: "Never withdraw into a fortress,
Machiavelli warned. Those who do so are trapped within their own walls
and have nowhere to run. They are surrounded, thereby becoming an easy
target for their enemies. Yet Iran is doing the exact opposite of this
advice. It withdraws into itself, thereby turning into an isolated pariah
state that experiences the kind of economic blows no country has
experienced since World War II. It is true that Ahmadinejad and his
colleagues are fooling the West in the nuclear talks, yet the Iranians
know well how dangerous their situation is, on the eve of a decision of
historical significance. They are aware of the dangers, yet nonetheless
continue to withdraw. On July 1st, the European Union's full oil embargo
on Iran will go into effect, and from that moment on Tehran shall lose
one quarter of its sales revenues. At this time already, the Iranians
have no customers for their oil, and tankers carrying some 30,000 barrels
without a buyer are docked in the Persian Gulf. Iran can store up to
80,000 oil barrels in its 39 tankers before it needs to shut down oil
wells. Such move would be destructive, as paralyzed oil wells sustain
grave damage that prevents them from returning to full capacity later on.
At this time the West presses states like China, India, South Korea and
South Africa, and they too are minimizing oil acquisitions from Iran. Yet
this is not the only blow to be sustained by Iran that day. In early
July, the large insurance companies will stop insuring Iranian tankers
and any vessel carrying Iranian oil. In light of this, South Korea, Japan
and other states have announced that they will be forced to halt their
Iranian oil purchases. Iran has no ability to insure the tankers itself.
China may insure some of them, but the costs in such case would be huge.
Iran's economic future never looked grimmer. It currently suffers from a
huge deficit, wide-ranging unemployment, a worthless currency, reckless
inflation, and young people who only want to flee the isolated state.
Many of them have succeeded in doing so. On top of this, grave sanctions
have already been imposed against Iran, such as disconnecting it from the
global clearinghouse system and the boycott on companies that maintain
ties with Iran's central bank or its oil industry." http://t.uani.com/LIzHpj
Meir Javedanfar in
The Diplomat: "Iran's leadership may be hoping that
Beijing and Moscow will step in and help it with the West. But it's not
in their interests to do so. Vladimir Putin has returned to the Russian
presidential office. And, if his previous record as president is anything
to go by, he's likely to take an even tougher line against the U.S. over
Iran. This comes at a time when U.S. relations with China have been
tense. Indeed, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta used a recent visit to
Vietnam to underscore how the United States intends to back its allies in
the Asia-Pacific region and help them enforce their rights in the South
China Sea, an area that Beijing claims much of. Such sentiments are
unlikely to have been well received by China's leaders. Against this
backdrop, China and Russia are both veto wielding members of the U.N.
Security Council, as well as members of the P5+1 group, which is
negotiating with Iran over its nuclear program. The Iranian government
could therefore be forgiven for seeing a diplomatic opportunity on the
horizon, and Tehran can be expected to attempt to seize the moment by
trying to create a rift between the rest of the P5+1 and Russia and
China. Indeed, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will likely have
used his meetings with Putin and senior Chinese officials on the
sidelines of this week's Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit for
this very purpose. The question that should be asked, though, is this:
how much mileage can Tehran get from such discord? The answer is likely
not much. Of course, Putin can be expected to crank up the rhetoric in
challenging U.S. policies, especially those tied to new sanctions against
Iran. In concrete terms, though, he'll be treading much more carefully.
Putin may want to sound tough with the United States, but he's also aware
that it's unwise to vigorously challenge current U.S. and EU oil
sanctions against Iran's oil industry because they also serve his
government's interests. Iran is a Russian competitor in the global energy
market, and the less oil Iran is allowed to sell, the more scope there
will be for Russia to step in. In the long run, Russia may even be able
to poach some of Iran's long standing oil customers. In addition, the
current tensions over Iran, and its absence from the oil markets, could
help keep oil prices higher, a reality that will be welcome for a Russian
administration that's determined to eliminate Russia's budget deficit by
2015. Doing so depends on oil prices averaging around $100 per barrel, by
some estimates. The Chinese government's enthusiasm for the Iranian
government, meanwhile, is also likely to be limited. The most important
reason is China's slowing economy." http://t.uani.com/LzI6xb
Greg Jones in
NPEC: "In various papers since 2008, this author has
outlined how Iran's growing centrifuge enrichment program could provide
it with the ability to produce Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) for nuclear
weapons. On May 25, 2012 the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
published its latest safeguards update. This update shows that not
only has Iran's centrifuge enrichment effort continued to be unimpeded by
Western counteraction but that it has undergone a significant
expansion. In particular in the last six months Iran has increased
its production of 3.5% enriched uranium at the FEP at Natanz by about 60%
and has installed over 1,000 new centrifuges at the well-protected Fordow
facility. Together these increases mean that Iran has increased its
total enrichment capacity by nearly 80% since just last fall and tripled
it since 2009. This reality is in contrast to the continuing myth
that cyberattacks against Iran's centrifuge enrichment facilities led to
significant reductions in Iran's enriched uranium production. Though
media coverage of this latest IAEA safeguards update has focused on the
discovery of 27% enriched uranium particles at one of Iran's enrichment
facilities, the rapid increase in Iran's overall enrichment capacity is
the real story. The rapid expansion of Iran's enrichment capacity
continues to shorten the time that Iran would require to produce the HEU
needed to manufacture a nuclear weapon. I currently estimate that
Iran could produce enough HEU for a nuclear weapon in one to three months
and might be able to produce enough HEU for three nuclear weapons in just
six months if it were to decide to quickly do so. In order to produce a
nuclear weapon Iran would also have to manufacture the non-nuclear
components for such a weapon. Iran has already made substantial
progress in this area, in part aided by a Russian nuclear weapon expert.
I have estimated that Iran could produce these required non-nuclear
components in just two to six months should it decide to quickly do
so." http://t.uani.com/MhDZWE
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear
Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the
Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive
media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with
discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please
email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com
United Against Nuclear
Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a
commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a
regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons. UANI is an
issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own
interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of
nuclear weapons.
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