Thursday, June 14, 2012

Eye on Iran: Tehran Hardens Nuclear Stance






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WSJ: "Iran's chief nuclear negotiator said Iran wouldn't compromise on its right to enrich uranium, casting doubts on whether the country could reach a deal during talks with international powers in Moscow this month. Saeed Jalili, the negotiator, updated lawmakers in Iran's parliament on Wednesday over the status of the country's nuclear talks, in a speech that was aired live on radio and published by official media. Mr. Jalili's narrative of several rounds of nuclear talks dating to last year suggested a hardening of Iran's position. The diplomat, who represents the views of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, dismissed a suspension of uranium enrichment, a central demand of the international powers. The diplomat said Iran had recently threatened to pull out of the talks if they only focus on the nuclear issue and don't address Iran's other concerns such as human rights in Bahrain and piracy in the Persian Gulf. He said Tehran only changed its mind after Catherine Ashton, the European Union's Foreign Secretary, called him Monday to reassure him Iran's concerns were on the table." http://t.uani.com/M5yJn6

JPost: "A US-based pressure group accused a British company this week of facilitating Iran's human rights abuses by providing broadcasting services to the Islamic Republic's state media. United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) said it has ramped up its campaign to get UK communications infrastructure company Arqiva to stop broadcasting and transmitting networks operated by the state-controlled Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB)... 'By facilitating IRIB's broadcast of libelous programs and hate speech against religious minorities, forced confessions of peaceful dissidents and civil society activists, and show trials of political prisoners, Arqiva is serving to further the Iranian regime's campaign of persecution and repression against its own citizens,' [UANI President Kristen] Silverberg wrote." http://t.uani.com/KDe9dD

Reuters: "South Korea has imposed curbs on exports to Iran - mainly steel, cars and electronics - to reduce its risk of payment defaults as western sanctions disrupt Iranian oil exports, highlighting the growing risk of doing business with the Islamic Republic. The move to limit the trade exposure of Asia's fourth-largest economy, which sold $1.7 billion of goods in Iran in the first quarter of this year, was announced by South Korea's leading trade and business body and came into effect this week. Fresh export deals to Iran will be approved only if their payment period is within 180 days to reduce uncertainty in payment settlement, the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) said in a statement on its web site. 'This is temporary to prepare for the situation that Iranian crude imports do not go smoothly, and it will be lifted if the trading condition with Iran improves sharply,' KITA said... Export quotas could be imposed on products including Samsung Electronics' mobile phones and Hyundai Motor's vehicles, a source has told Reuters." http://t.uani.com/LMGOR3
MTN Action AlertNuclear Program 
  
AP: "Proposals from both Iran and the group of six world powers will be on the table for nuclear talks in Moscow next week, not just the West's demand to halt Iran's highest level uranium enrichment, Iran's top negotiator said Wednesday. Saeed Jalili said the European Union's foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, has agreed the negotiations will include Iranian proposals. The two days of talks are scheduled to begin Monday, two weeks before the European Union is set to impose a full embargo on Iranian oil imports." http://t.uani.com/K4QT6F

AFP: "The United States called Wednesday for a united front with China against Iran's nuclear program as it debates whether to slap sanctions on the Asian power over oil purchases from the Islamic republic. The United States has exempted 18 nations but not China from tough sanctions that come into effect on June 28 on countries that buy oil from Iran, which Israel and some Western officials accuse of building a nuclear weapon. Kurt Campbell, the top State Department official on East Asia, said that the United States and China were 'right in the middle' of talks about Iran and did not answer a question on whether Beijing would receive an exemption." http://t.uani.com/LWvTAC

Daily Telegraph: "North Korea may have used a launch-pad in Iran to test a new missile capable of hitting American bases in the Pacific island of Guam, according to reports from Japan and South Korea. The missile, named after the Musudan testing range in North Korea, was recently shown off to the public at a vast military parade in the capital, Pyongyang, according to the reports. South Korean and American intelligence reports suggest that the weapon may then have been tested in Iran, with which North Korea is known to have military links. The Musudan missile had not been previously recorded. North Korea has a known capacity to build short and medium-range missiles, including the Taepodong-1 which it fired over Japan in 1998 to the alarm of Tokyo and its allies in Washington." http://t.uani.com/LnN2m0

Sanctions

WSJ: "Japan, looking to secure a steady energy supply, is pressing the European Union to loosen pending sanctions that would prohibit European firms from insuring its imports of Iranian oil, according to people familiar with the effort. After significant reductions of purchases, Japan still gets about 3% of its crude from Iran, and 90% of such tanker voyages are reinsured by companies based in the EU. Those insurance contracts come to a halt on July 1, when EU sanctions go into effect prohibiting EU-based companies from insuring or reinsuring ships carrying Iranian oil. The sanctions also include a ban on imports of Iranian oil to Europe. Though the Japanese government has introduced legislation that would allow it to cover tankers carrying Iranian crude in the case of an accident, Japanese officials said such a law probably wouldn't be passed in time to come into effect by July 1... Germany-based Munich Re, the world's largest reinsurer, will stop reinsurance for ships carrying Iranian oil exports on July 1, a spokeswoman said. 'Munich Re will of course continue to monitor future international developments regarding sanctions against Iran and comply with all applicable sanction regulations,' she said." http://t.uani.com/OEEY3a

Reuters: "It is no exaggeration to say the impact of the pending U.S. and European sanctions against Iran are one of the most taboo subjects at an OPEC meeting in years. A visitor from Mars could well walk away from the day to day events in Vienna under the impression that the impending U.S. and European sanctions regimes has nothing to do with Iranian oil exports. Ministers and delegates are extremely reticent to discuss the subject of the sanctions, set to take effect July 1, which may well force Tehran, OPEC's No. 2 producer, to slash output. Already Iranian crude shipments are down by an estimated 1 million barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency, as Tehran's customers in Europe and Asia cut back purchases ahead of the sanctions... How can it be that oil prices have fallen $30 a barrel at the same time as 1 million bpd of Iranian oil exports have been knocked out of the market?, delegates ask." http://t.uani.com/M794um

Human Rights


Guardian: "Amnesty International has warned against the imminent execution of five members of Iran's Ahwazi Arab minority convicted of 'enmity against God'. Abd al-Rahman Heidari, Taha Heidari, Jamshid Heidari along with Mansour Heidari and Amir Muawi were sentenced to death in April 2011 on charge of killing a law enforcement official. Three of the men are brothers. Amnesty says the men, who come from Iran's southern province of Khuzestan, were all tried 'unfairly' and moved to an unknown location at the weekend, prompting fears that they may face imminent execution." http://t.uani.com/KvhgZN

Foreign Affairs

NYT: "Russia and Iran, Syria's staunchest allies, castigated the United States on Wednesday for its support of opposition forces battling President Bashar al-Assad and his military, and the Iranians accused the Americans and their allies of sending weapons and troops into Syria. Iran's foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi, and his Russian counterpart, Sergey V. Lavrov, spoke about Syria at a news conference in Tehran, where Mr. Lavrov was consulting with senior Iranian officials. Both denied Western accusations that Russia and Iran were seeking to destabilize Syria. The Russian foreign minister reiterated Russia's longstanding denial of American accusations that his country is sending helicopter gunships to Syria, which will help government troops to fight the opposition. Mr. Lavrov said that Russia was 'honoring military contracts' with the Syrian government, but only sending 'antiaircraft weapons.'" http://t.uani.com/KDbT6b

Reuters: "Iran's clerical leadership never misses a chance to parade on the international stage and it has been buoyed by suggestions the oil-producing nation of 75 million might join a group of global powers intended to revive peace efforts in Syria. The reality however is a little different. The Islamic Republic appears to be running out of options if it is to maintain its influence in Syria and by extension its ability to manipulate events across the Middle East. Wedded to President Bashar al-Assad's bloody crackdown against Syrian rebels, distrusted by opposition groups and sanctioned by Western nations over its controversial nuclear program, Iran's top authority, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has little room to maneuver, say diplomats and analysts. The only real tool left in Iran's locker would seem to be raising the fear - and arguably an implied threat - of protracted and bloody civil conflict in Syria." http://t.uani.com/LER6li

AP: "Iran once saw the Arab Spring uprisings as a prime opportunity, hoping it would open the door for it to spread its influence in countries whose autocratic leaders long shunned Tehran's ruling clerics. But it is finding the new order no more welcoming. Egypt is a prime example. Egypt has sporadically looked more friendly toward Iran since the ouster of Hosni Mubarak 16 months ago, and the rise of the Islamists here fueled the expectations of Tehran's clerical regime that it could make inroads. Instead, it has been met with the deep mistrust felt by many in mainly Sunni Muslim Egypt toward non-Arab, Shiite-dominated Iran - as well as Cairo's reluctance to sacrifice good relations with Iran's rivals, the United States and the oil-rich Arab nations of the Gulf." http://t.uani.com/LnJznw

Reuters: "British foreign minister William Hague met his Iranian counterpart on Thursday, ISNA news agency reported, the highest level diplomatic contact between the two nations since the storming of the British embassy in Tehran late last year. Iranian protesters broke into two British diplomatic compounds in Tehran in November, ransacking offices and burning British flags in protest against new sanctions imposed by Britain on Iran. The incident sparked a major row between the two countries, with Britain shutting its embassy in Tehran before Hague expelled all Iranian diplomats from London saying there had been 'some degree of regime consent' in the attack." http://t.uani.com/M79fDT

Opinion & Analysis

Nicholas Kristof in NYT: "My 1,700-mile road trip across Iran began with a giddy paean to America, reinforcing my view that at the grass-roots level, this may be the most pro-American nation in the Middle East. 'We love America!' gushed a former military commando, now a clothing seller, my first evening in the spiritual center of Mashhad. He was so carried away that I thought he might hug me, and although he acknowledged that his business was suffering greatly from Western sanctions, he said he blamed his own leaders. 'I can't blame America,' he said. 'I love America too much.' That was far from a universal view. I encountered many Iranians - especially in the countryside - who strongly support the Iranian authorities and resent what they see as American government bullying. But while Iranians are far from monolithic, one feature was ubiquitous: the warmth of Iranians when they discovered I was American. We passed occasional 'Death to America' signs, but our trip was slowed by hospitality, for Iranians kept giving us presents or inviting us into their homes. And in the security line to board a flight from Tehran to Mashhad, a Revolutionary Guard said genially, 'We're not supposed to let batteries through, but we'll make an exception for you since you're a foreigner.' The Iranian government gave me a very rare journalist visa, along with permission to drive unescorted across the country on a government-approved route from Mashhad in the east to Tabriz in the west, and back to Tehran. I interviewed people at random along the way, and as far as I could tell I was not tailed. Compared with my last visit, in 2004, people seem more discontented - mainly because of economic difficulties caused in part by Western sanctions. Those sanctions are causing bitter pain, yet a surprising number of Iranians seem to largely blame their own leaders for the woes. Another difference from my last visit: People are more scared now. Iranians feel fairly free to gripe about their leaders, even within earshot of others, yet since the 2009 crackdown there has been a red line: anything approaching activism, including public criticism. One blogger is serving a 15-year prison sentence, and Iranians have been jailed just for giving interviews to foreign journalists. As a result, Iranians are more wary now of being quoted or shown in videos... To me, Iran feels like other authoritarian countries I covered before they toppled. My guess is that the demise of the system is a matter of time - unless there's a war between Iran and the West, perhaps ignited by Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. That, I sense, would provoke a nationalist backlash and rescue the ayatollahs." http://t.uani.com/OEzFAZ

Thomas Joscelyn in The Weekly Standard: "Putting that debate to the side, there are interesting nuggets in Rodriguez's recent book, Hard Measures, concerning top al Qaeda operative Abu Zubaydah's ties to Iran... Rodriguez's revelations about Zubaydah's ties to Iran, including his putative plan to move there, are not surprising. Zubaydah helped other top al Qaeda operatives and associates relocate to Iran after the 9/11 attacks. A one-page biography of Zubaydah prepared by the U.S. government reads: 'In November 2001, Abu Zubaydah helped smuggle now-deceased al Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Musab al Zarqawi and some 70 Arab fighters out of Kandahar, Afghanistan, into Iran.' Zarqawi will always be remembered for his vehement hatred of Shiites. The Iranians did not imprison him, however, but instead allowed him to make his way onto Iraq, bringing mayhem and chaos with him. There is evidence that Zarqawi coordinated his network's activities from Iranian soil for a time. Ali Saleh Husain, an al Qaeda operative who worked with Zubaydah, also helped relocate al Qaeda operatives and their family members to Iran in late 2001... Iran clearly provided a hospitable operating environment for Zubaydah and his colleagues. It is no wonder that Zubaydah himself, per Rodriguez's testimony, may have planned to move there. Some of have seized on the tensions between Iran and al Qaeda that arose later, after the Iranians did not release some al Qaeda members from house arrest in a timely manner. Those tensions, reflected in a narrow set of Osama bin Laden's documents released to the public, were very real, but they do not define the entire relationship. Iran and al Qaeda cooperated both before and since. Nearly all of the materials in the U.S. government's possession pertaining to Iran's ties to al Qaeda, including Zubaydah's videos, should be declassified and released to the public." http://t.uani.com/LWAjYk

Jeffrey Goldberg in The Atlantic: "Gen. Benny Gantz, the chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, spoke out last week against ex-military and intelligence officials who are expressing doubts about the efficacy of a preemptive Israeli military strike on Iran's nuclear project. Gantz, testifying in the Knesset, said, 'There is a lot of chatter and conversation regarding Iran. Very few people know what is real and what is not, or what can be and what cannot be.' Gantz named no names, but his targets were quite obviously three men: his predecessor as chief of staff, Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi; the former head of the Shabak, Israel's internal security service, Yuval Diskin; and Meir Dagan, the recently retired chief of the Mossad, Israel's foreign intelligence service. It is Dagan who has taken the lead in criticizing his former boss, the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the defense minister, Ehud Barak, for contemplating a preemptive aerial strike. Dagan came out of the gate early and strong, stating, in early 2011, shortly after his retirement (a retirement that was forced by Netanyahu), that attacking Iran is a 'stupid idea.' He has not let up since. For those of us who have asked, on occasion, whether Netanyahu and Barak are actually preparing to strike Iran or are simply trying to bluff the international community, Dagan's harsh, and repeated, statements about the plans of the current government need to be taken seriously: Dagan believes firmly that Bibi and Barak are not bluffing. Which is why he is so agitated. Earlier this month, I accompanied David Bradley, the chairman and owner of the Atlantic Media Company, on a visit to Dagan's Tel Aviv apartment in order to discuss the Iran issue... In our hour-long conversation, Dagan outlined his many objections to the idea of an Israeli strike, but he began by disavowing the notion that he is anything like a dove. He does not believe that Israel could easily survive in a Middle East dominated by a nuclear Iran, and he believes that the Iranian regime might not be entirely rational, that elements of the Islamic Republic's leadership might be motivated by extreme eschatalogical beliefs to contemplate committing unthinkable acts. In other words, Dagan is someone who takes seriously the genocidal threats of Iranian leaders, and their nuclear intentions - 'Iran has come to the conclusion that it needs a bomb' -- and it is for this reason that he made himself the principal architect of Israel's program of anti-Iranian sabotage, subterfuge and cyberwarfare (the last one being run jointly with the United States, as David Sanger has recently shown.) ... All this is to say that Meir Dagan is not a pacifist. He told David and me explicitly that the threat of military action should be held out as an absolute last resort, but he is angry that Israeli leaders have turned what should be understood as a problem for the entire world into a specifically Israeli issue. 'We made a huge mistake by making this our problem,' he said... Dagan believes that sanctions may still yet work, especially the sort of sanctions, combined with sabotage programs, that threaten the stability of the regime. If the Iranian economy is squeezed in a way that causes average citizens to rise up against their government's policies, Dagan believes that the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, might be forced to shelve his nuclear ambitions. And Dagan believes the tempo of sabotage should, if anything, be increased. 'Covert operations have a better impact on proliferation than an attack.,' he said." http://t.uani.com/LWBzus

Ilan Berman in The Diplomat: "So much for Chinese cooperation on Iran, it would seem. Just a few months ago, the Chinese government seemed to be on track for a very public divorce from its third largest energy supplier. But now, China appears to be reverting to type. In April, China's imports of Iranian crude nearly doubled, surging some 48 percent to reach 1.6 metric tons. That spike effectively reverses the trend seen since this winter, in which China - leery of mounting Western economic pressure against Iran and attendant penalties on its energy clients - had begun to trim its energy commerce with the Islamic Republic. Nor does it seem to be an anomaly; experts predict that Iran's oil exports to China will return to regular levels in coming months, striking a significant blow to U.S. and European efforts to isolate Iran in the process. Crude purchases aren't the only way Beijing is helping Tehran to weather Western sanctions. In recent weeks, as U.S. and European sanctions on Iran have begun to bite in earnest, China's government has stepped into the void left by fleeing foreign partners. China's shippers, for example, have capitalized on the lack of market competition to do a thriving business carrying Iranian oil. Chinese insurers, meanwhile, increasingly have supplanted skittish Western underwriters and guaranteed Iran's foreign crude export shipments. What accounts for Beijing's backsliding? Economic considerations certainly play a role. Iran has long served as a key supplier of energy to China, and its output remains crucial to China's economy. Despite some success in diversifying its energy sources over the past two years, Iran is still estimated to provide China with nearly 12 percent of its total annual foreign crude. That makes Iran roughly as significant for China, in energy terms, as Saudi Arabia is for the United States. It's also why Chinese officials have been quick to declare that, notwithstanding a looming European ban on Iranian oil (now slated to take effect July 1) and U.S. threats of economic penalties, 'the volume of our shipments will not drop.' But politics are also bound to figure prominently in China's calculus. China is a member of the 'P5+1' group, and as such has watched firsthand the frenzied diplomatic efforts of the United States and its European allies for a negotiated settlement with Tehran over its nuclear ambitions. As of this writing, recent talks (first in Istanbul and most recently in Baghdad) have set up a protracted negotiating track that has, however temporarily, slowed Western efforts to apply economic pressure to Iran. In the process, it has provided the Iranian regime with much-needed breathing room to continue its nuclear effort." http://t.uani.com/MIUM28

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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