Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Eye on Iran: Flush with Cash, Lebanese Banks Raise Eyebrows






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NOW Lebanon: "The past 16 months have been a real nail-biter for Lebanon's banking sector. Since the US Treasury accused the Lebanese Canadian Bank (LCB) of laundering drug money for Hezbollah last February, local banks' images have taken a beating in the international press, and Beirut's ties to sanctioned regimes in Damascus and Tehran have been increasingly questioned. Most recently, a US-based group called United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) publically launched a campaign (which has been going on behind the scenes for months) to get Lebanon's economy blacklisted. It is lobbying non-Lebanese institutions to sell and permanently stop buying Beirut's debt, credit ratings agencies to stop putting a stamp of approval on Lebanese state bonds, and the US government to designate the entire country a money laundering concern, cutting it off from the US financial system and essentially destroying the banking sector and the economy at large. The group alleges that Lebanese banks, in cahoots with the Central Bank, are helping prop up a 'false economy' which is no more than a 'money laundering enterprise' designed to aid Iran - and to a lesser extent, Syria - in avoiding sanctions. UANI's argument against local banking concerns centers on Lebanon's debt. According to the Ministry of Finance, at the end of 2011, Lebanon's gross public debt was $46.36 billion - or 137 percent of GDP." http://t.uani.com/MilBw2

Daily Star: "Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh defended Lebanon's banking sector Monday, dismissing reports of money smuggling from Syria to Lebanese banks. The Central Bank chief added that Syrian deposits in Lebanese banks have recently decreased. 'What is being said about smuggling of money from Syria to Lebanese banks is false,' Salameh told the Beirut based Al-Mayadeen satellite television channel. He added that ratings of Lebanon's banking sector were among the best in the Arab region... Last week, an anti-Iranian U.S. activist group accused the Central Bank in Beirut and the Lebanese banking system of allowing illicit financial acts in the country's strongest services sector. 'As a result of the actions and omissions of [Lebanon's Central Bank] and the [Lebanese banking system], Lebanon has become a sovereign money laundering jurisdiction that receives massive inflows of illicit deposits ... from Hezbollah's terror and criminal activities, and the illicit symbiotic relationships among Iran, Syria and Hezbollah,' said a press release issued by the New York-based group United against Nuclear Iran." http://t.uani.com/NlyL9h

Reuters: "Tough Western sanctions are forcing Iran to take drastic action and shut off wells at its vast oilfields, reducing production to levels last seen more than two decades ago and costing Tehran billions in lost revenues. Iran struggled to sell its oil in the run-up to the European Union ban on July 1, yet it managed to sustain oilfield flows at lofty rates above 3 million barrels per day (bpd) by stashing unwanted barrels in tanks on land and on ships in the Gulf. But oil sales have now slumped to half the rate of last year and storage is running out. As a last resort, Tehran is carrying out 'enforced' maintenance at its ageing reservoirs, say Iranian and Western oil sources, dropping output below 3 million bpd. It's a step that could make Tehran look as if it is caving in to the West and, in any case, leaves it trailing former rival Iraq in the ranks of the world's top oil producers. And if a big volume of oil is closed down, it will be difficult to bring it back online when it's needed, say Western oil experts." http://t.uani.com/M0jb6V
MTN Action Alert   
Nuclear Program
  
Reuters: "Senior diplomats from the European Union and Iran will meet on July 24 for technical talks on Tehran's disputed nuclear programme to try to salvage diplomatic efforts to resolve the decade-long standoff, EU officials said on Monday. The meeting in Istanbul will be the second in a series of discussions to clarify technical aspects of Tehran's activity. It follows an agreement by Iran and six world powers in June to use such talks to decide whether diplomacy tackling broader political issues should continue in the face of vast differences in views over the nature of Iran's nuclear ambitions." http://t.uani.com/PGWJBX

Bloomberg: "Iran is producing new laser-guided anti-tank missiles modeled on Russia's Kornet, the rocket used by Hezbollah in the 2006 war with Israel, according to defense analysts in London and Moscow. The Iranians may have copied the design after obtaining it from non-state sources such as Hezbollah, said Igor Korotchenko, director of the Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade in Moscow, who's also the head of an advisory council for the Russian Defense Ministry. Syria and the Hamas Islamic movement are also among possible sources for providing the technology, according to Neil Gibson, a defense analyst from IHS Jane's. Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi on July 7 inaugurated production of the Dehlaviyeh anti-armor missile system designed to hit mobile and ground targets, the state-run Fars news agency reported. The Kornet has a range of as far as 5.5 kilometers (3.3 miles), according to its manufacturer, the KBP Instrument Design Bureau." http://t.uani.com/L64T0A

Bloomberg: "Several Iranian lawmakers plan to propose a bill to impose tariffs on ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, Shargh reported, citing Alireza Khosravi, a member of the nation's parliament. Ships of certain countries transit the waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf 'under pretexts such as security,' Khosravi said. Nations whose oil tankers and other vessels exit or enter the Gulf must compensate for the environmental damage they cause there, he said, according to the Tehran-based newspaper. Khosravi didn't identify specific countries or provide details of the draft bill, Shargh reported today. Another parliamentarian, Mehdi Mousavinejad, said lawmakers may ask the legislative body to consider a proposal to restrict ship traffic in Hormuz, according to the state-run Fars news agency." http://t.uani.com/OtU0XM

Times of Israel: "A position paper obtained by The Times of Israel, understood to have been used by Iran's negotiators at last week's technical-level talks with the P5+1 powers in Istanbul, makes plain the Tehran regime's unyielding rejection of international efforts to negotiate safeguards and restrictions that would prevent Iran attaining a nuclear weapons capability. Far from indicating Iranian readiness for a suspension or scaling back of its nuclear program, indeed, the document, made available by an informed source on condition of anonymity, includes references to Iran's expansion plans. 'Facing constant threats, we need a back up facility to safeguard our enrichment activities,' it states at one point, when discussing the Fordow enrichment facility, the underground complex built beneath a mountain near Qom where Iran carries out its 20% uranium enrichment. A later point, related to the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR), refers to the need 'for at least 4 other research reactors because of the territorial extent of Iran and the short lifetime of medical isotopes.' The next clause in the document declares an Iranian ambition 'to sell fuel complexes to other countries.' The position paper, dated July 3, first sets out Iran's objectives in the diplomatic process - which include obtaining international recognition of what it claims are its rights to enrichment activities, and securing 'total termination' of all sanctions against it." http://t.uani.com/MVGgJH

Sanctions

WashPost: "As Iran struggles with a plummeting exchange rate and soaring prices, the currency bazaar in Tehran's old city center has become the focus of a debate about how to solve the country's financial woes. Iranian authorities never took much notice of the traders at the bazaar - which feels like something between a stock exchange floor and an off-track betting center - until the difference between the central bank's official rate for dollars and the street rate began to widen, lowering confidence in the rial and greatly increasing the amount of currency being traded on the unofficial market... Foreign currency speculation has become wildly popular here, as dollars are one of the few investments besides gold and real estate that Iranians deem stable. On Saturday, the price for one U.S. dollar at the Tehran currency bazaar was 19,600 rials. And because such large amounts of currency are traded at the bazaar, it has become the unofficial, but widely accepted, source of foreign currency rates in Iran. The falling value of the rial has an immediate impact on prices across the country, as retailers set their prices based on the replacement costs of goods, which they know will be much higher as those goods are bought with foreign currency." http://t.uani.com/LLTVyG

AFP: "Iran has come up with several methods to foil the European insurance embargo on ships loaded with its crude, a sanction which may harm its vital exports as much as the EU oil embargo itself... Japan passed a law allowing the state to act as a substitute for European insurance firms in reinsuring tankers which are loaded with Iranian crude, up to $7.6 billion. But other major customers have not followed suit, forcing Tehran to devise its own alternatives. China and India, two major buyers, have accepted an Iranian offer to transport the crude with its own fleet under all-Iranian insurance. South Korea, which suspended imports on July 1, has not ruled out joining the offer. But this solution faces several obstacles, apart from transportation price disputes which have broken out with China, according to diplomatic sources. National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC), with 40 tankers of 100,000 to 300,000 tons, does not have the long-distance capacity for more than 2 million barrels (300,000 tons) a day in exports by pre-sanctions Iran, a European expert said." http://t.uani.com/L677wQ

Reuters: "A prominent U.S. lawmaker has asked the small South Pacific island nation Tuvalu to stop reflagging Iranian oil tankers and warned its government of the risks of running afoul of U.S. sanctions... Reflagging ships masks their ownership, which could make it easier for Iran to obtain insurance and financing for the cargoes, as well as find buyers for the shipments without attracting attention from the United States and European Union. The National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) changed the names and flags of many of its oil tankers ahead of the EU ban, part of sweeping economic measures aimed at pressuring Tehran to end its nuclear program. As many as 22 ships owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company have been registered in Tuvalu, said Howard Berman, the top Democrat on the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee." http://t.uani.com/NGnvWY

WSJ: "United India Insurance Co. has agreed to provide protection and indemnity cover to Indian tankers carrying oil from Iran with General Insurance Corp. offering reinsurance, two people with knowledge of the matter said Tuesday. The offer bring some relief to Indian shipping companies that aren't getting covers from European insurers since July 1 for carrying shipments from Iran, which is facing sanctions from the U.S. and European Union for its decision to continue with an alleged nuclear weapons program. 'We (shipowners) had asked for and have been offered a P&I cover of $50 million,' a senior executive at state-run Shipping Corp. of India Ltd. said. While United India Insurance executives weren't available to comment, an executive from General Insurance Corp. said there will be a $50 million P&I cover and a separate amount for hull and machinery. 'The cover is for all Indian shipowners,' the executive said." http://t.uani.com/Ngjo5J

FT: "That is the question beyondbrics found itself asking after it had a look at Turkey's latest trade figures. According to data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), Turkey's trade with Iran in May rose a whopping 513.2 per cent to hit $1.7bn. Of this, gold exports to its eastern neighbour accounted for the bulk of the increase. Nearly $1.4bn worth of gold was exported to Iran, accounting for 84 per cent of Turkey's trade with the country. So what's going on? In a nutshell - sanctions and oil. In recent months, western powers, notably the US and the European Union, have tightened financial sanctions on the Islamic regime in an attempt to force Iran to scale back or halt its efforts to enrich uranium. In March, Iran was cut off from from Swift, the global payments network, effectively blocking the country from performing any international financial transactions." http://t.uani.com/NmPr3y

FT: "What does an oil refinery do when it loses its supply of Iranian crude? A contract for Saudi Arabian oil is probably the best replacement, over the medium term. But in a rush, little beats a few barrels of Urals, the Russian main export oil stream. The scramble for Urals - a low quality, high sulphur crude produced in central Russia - shows the impact in the physical oil market of European and US sanctions on Iran. It helps to explain, too, the recent recovery in oil prices back to about $100 a barrel despite weakening global economic growth. Since the sanctions against Iran came into force on July 1, refiners that waited until the last minute to cut all their links with Iran, including Eni of Italy and Tupras of Turkey, have rushed into the Urals market, triggering a price jump." http://t.uani.com/MinR6o

Fox News: "A House committee announced Monday that it will probe the shipment of computers and other sophisticated equipment to North Korea and Iran via an obscure United Nations agency, after FoxNews.com first reported that the State Department was investigating.  Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., announced that the House Foreign Affairs Committee, which she chairs, will move forward with its own investigation. 'The revelation that a U.N. agency has been supplying the brutal regimes in Iran and North Korea with sensitive technology is deeply disturbing, and must be thoroughly investigated,' she said in a statement. 'Providing these thugs with sensitive technology has the potential to enable their dangerous agendas. This serious offense cannot go overlooked or unpunished.'"  http://t.uani.com/LERIKe

MTN: "The department of international relations is investigating allegations that the former ambassador to Iran, Yusuf Salojee, accepted payments from MTN, the department confirmed in a statement. The statement, by Minister Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, in reply to a parliamentary question released on Tuesday, adds a new twist to the controversy over MTN's operations in Iran. The South African company stands accused of paying bribes to secure a mobile phone operating licence in Iran but has denied any wrongdoing.  MTN was alleged to have made a payment of $200000 (R1,6m) towards the purchase of a house for Mr Salojee in South Africa." http://t.uani.com/M0oZgM

JPost: "Israel must lead the way in the economic battle against Iran, Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee chairman Ronnie Bar-On (Kadima) said on Tuesday. The committee authorized for its second and third (final) Knesset votes a bill sanctioning any corporation that does business with or in Iran. In addition, any business indirectly helping Tehran by dealing with foreign companies that work with or in Iran will face limitations. Any business found to be helping Iran will not have economic rights in Israel, including putting in bids, receiving permits and licenses, as well as receiving economic aid from the government. According to the bill, a staff dedicated to sanctions in the Finance Ministry will determine who is aiding Iran." http://t.uani.com/Mf4NVd

Terrorism

Fox News: "The prospect of Iran using its embassy in Canada to mobilize Islamic Republic loyalists to attack the U.S. is raising alarm among terrorism experts after an official there issued a call to arms for expatriates to infiltrate the Canadian government and be ready to advance the interests of their homeland. Details of the Iranian recruitment program came to light in a chilling interview Hamid Mohammadi, the Iranian cultural affairs counselor at the embassy in Ottawa, gave in Farsi to an Iran-based website directed exclusively at Iranians living in Canada. In addition to raising alarms in Canada, Mohammadi's message got the attention of U.S. terror watchdogs, who noted that radicalized Iranians would be just an easy border crossing from the American heartland, since Canadian citizens do not need a visa and typically face just a few questions from U.S. border officials." http://t.uani.com/MVDjJi

Foreign Affairs

NYT: "Kofi Annan, the envoy of the United Nations and the Arab League on Syria, met with senior Iranian officials on Tuesday to seek their cooperation in trying to rescue his foundering peace plan. The trip highlighted a growing difference in international approaches to the Syrian crisis, with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton on Monday saying that President Bashar al-Assad's 'days are numbered,' as Mr. Annan reached out to Mr. Assad and his regional partner Iran to try to find a compromise." http://t.uani.com/NmQh0h

Opinion & Analysis

Michael Rubin in Fox News: "On July 1, following the lead set days earlier by the United States, the European Union slapped sanctions on purchasers of Iranian oil. While Iran's leaders acknowledged the new sanctions have bite, they scoff at the idea they will be effective. 'The enemy assumption that they can weaken Iran is, of course, wrong and a result of their merely materialistic calculations,' Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared on July 3. The Obama administration, however, argues that their strategy of gradually increasing sanctions is working. 'We believe that the economic sanctions are bringing Iran to the table,' Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared, the day after the United States tightened its unilateral sanctions. Both are wrong. Despite Ahmadinejad's bluster, sanctions can work against Iran. Nevertheless, Obama's team has yet to contemplate the level of sanctions necessary to force Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions. Twice since the establishment of the Islamic Republic, revolutionary authorities have staked out extreme positions only to reverse course. On November 4, 1979, Iranian students believing that a November 1 handshake between their prime minister and President Carter's national security advisor presaged a betrayal of their revolution, stormed the U.S. embassy in Tehran. Their initial aim was to hold the embassy staff for just 48 hours. However, after Gary Sick, a Carter national security aide, leaked that Carter had taken military action off-the-table in favor of a diplomatic resolution, the students augmented their demands and transformed a fleeting protest into a prolonged crisis which would last 444 days. Iranian authorities released the hostages on the first day of Ronald Reagan's presidency. In the weeks and months that followed, Carter administration officials gave interviews and penned articles and books claiming that the key to the hostages' release was the persistence of diplomacy. Carter's team never gave up: They tried everyone from radical former Attorney-General Ramsey Clark and Palestine Liberation Organization terrorists to German bankers and UN diplomats as mediators. In the end, it was the Algerian government whose mediation succeeded. The late Peter Rodman, a former Henry Kissinger aide, saw things differently. In an important 1981 article, he argued that the persistence of diplomacy had little to do with the hostages' release. Instead, Rodman suggested that what changed Ayatollah Khomeini's calculus was Iraq's invasion of Iran. The war challenged the Islamic Republic's very existence. The cost of continuing Iran's isolation by holding American hostages had grown too great to bear. The second time Iranian authorities reversed course and dropped long-standing demands involved Khomeini's war aims. The Iraqi invasion had caught Khomeini-and just about everyone else-by surprise. It took about two years for the Iranian army to push back the Iraqi invaders out of Iranian territory... It is time to face down the Iranian leadership to convey that they cannot imagine the pain the United States and its allies are capable of inflicting. The Iranian leadership may respond with bluster but, if policymakers are serious both about avoiding a prolonged military conflict with Iran and denying the Islamic Republic a nuclear weapons capability, then the United States will have no choice but to call Iran's bluff. When Khomeini challenged American resolve in 1988, Reagan ordered Iran's navy destroyed. It is time to signal to Tehran the true costs of its actions. If history is any guide, the ayatollahs will blink first." http://t.uani.com/Mf37ep

Meghan O'Sullivan in Boston Herald: "The latest Iran sanctions came into full effect last week, adding to a byzantine array of unilateral and multilateral measures that prohibit Iranian oil imports, other trade and financial transactions, and freeze Iranian assets by countries concerned that Tehran's nuclear program is intended for military purposes, not civilian ones. The international community is now on watch for cracks in Iran's defiant stance: Will increased sanctions compel Tehran to make real concessions and allow for a diplomatic solution to the standoff? This characterization is too simplistic, however, and the record suggests there may be some reasons to be optimistic that current sanctions on Iran will deliver. Sanctions generally get a bad rap, with many declaring that they don't work. First, sanctions against Iran are today just one tool in a larger strategy. In other cases - in South Africa, Serbia and Libya, for example - where sanctions have worked, they were not stand-alone instruments. In past decades, sanctions against Iran have constituted the entirety of the U.S.-led strategy against Tehran's nuclear ambitions. Today, in contrast, the U.S. approach involves not only sanctions but also diplomatic talks, and at least some threat of military force. Perhaps more important, sanctions against Iran have already had a real economic impact. Some reports assess that Iranian oil imports have dropped by as much as 1 million barrels a day since the end of 2011. This puts pressure on Iran's budget, nearly 70 percent of which is funded by oil revenue. Moreover, the value of the Iranian rial has dropped dramatically since September on account of Iran's growing isolation from the international banking system and the need to resort to barter arrangements. As a result, inflation is on the rise. But the real test of sanctions is not whether they are part of a nicely crafted strategy, or whether they create economic hardship, but whether they induce a change in the behavior of Tehran's leaders." http://t.uani.com/M0qJa2

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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