Monday, July 9, 2012

Eye on Iran: Iran Says It Has Plan to Close Strait of Hormuz






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AP: "Iran will block the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, the passageway through which a fifth of the world's oil flows, if its interests are seriously threatened, a senior Iranian military commander said Saturday. 'We do have a plan to close the Strait of Hormuz,'state media quoted Gen. Hasan Firouzabadi as saying Saturday. 'A Shiite nation (Iran) acts reasonably and would not approve interruption of a waterway ... unless our interests are seriously threatened,' Press TV quoted him as saying. The comments by Firouzabadi, the chairman of Iran's Joint Chiefs of Staff, come days after the European Union enforced a total oil embargo against Iran for its refusal to halt its uranium enrichment program." http://t.uani.com/N8LgJM

WSJ: "The U.S. State Department said Friday it welcomed a decision by Italian company Edison International SpA to withdraw from Iran's energy sector. Edison withdrew from its contract to explore Iran's Dayyer natural gas field, the State Department said, and it pledged not to engage in activity with Iran in the future that is subject to U.S. sanctions. The State Department said, as a result of the company's decision, it granted a 'special rule' under the Iran Sanctions Act to Edison that says the company will not be subject to an investigation into past Iran-based activities, so long as it lives up to the assurances it gave to the U.S. government." http://t.uani.com/M9kUCG

JPost: "Germany's multi-billion euro bilateral trade relationship with Iran continues unabated, even as evidence mounts that the Islamic Republic is determined to build a nuclear weapons capability. The Jerusalem Post has obtained an uncensored list from late 2011, showing hundreds of German and Iranian enterprises in a flourishing trade relationship... One company named is Baden-Württemberg-based engineering giant Herrenknecht AG, which appears to be delivering heavy tunneling equipment to Iran - some of which is promoted as having the capability of 'drilling down to depths of 6,000 meters.' In response to Post inquiries, an unidentified representative of the company wrote via email on Friday that it has 'comprehensively ensured that Herrenknecht excavation engineering and services solely reach projects which clearly pursue civil applications [metro tunnel construction, sewage pipes and water supply lines].' After such projects are completed, it cannot be determined if Iran intends to or already has used the equipment for its nuclear facilities... Late last month, Germany's Federal Statistical Office said that bilateral trade with Iran in 2011 totaled nearly 4 billion euros (with about 3b. euros in German exports and 778m. euros in Iranian imports)." http://t.uani.com/RK95b6
MTN Action Alert   
Nuclear Program
  
AP: "A new book claims Israel's spy agency dispatched assassins into Iran, as part of a campaign to sabotage the country's disputed nuclear program. Israeli operatives have killed at least four Iranian nuclear scientists, including targeting them with operatives on motorcycles, an assassination technique used by the Israeli spy service, the Mossad, according to authors Dan Raviv and Yossi Melman in their book to be published July 9, 'Spies Against Armageddon: Inside Israel's Secret Wars'. The Mossad agents 'excel at accurate shooting at any speed and staying steady to shoot and to place exquisitely shaped sticky bombs' and consider it their hallmark, Raviv said Friday during an interview with both authors." http://t.uani.com/ONsx6Y

Bloomberg: "An Iranian parliament lawmaker said his country is willing to consider the temporary suspension of 20-percent uranium enrichment as part of a negotiated accord, state-run Press TV news channel reported. In return the so-called P5+1 -- U.S., U.K., France, China, Russia and Germany -- must agree to meet the country's needs for 20-percent enriched uranium, said Mohammad-Hassan Asferi, a member of the Parliament's national security and foreign policy committee, according to Press TV. Iran would be willing to suspend its 20-percent enrichment activity for a specific period if western powers meet its enrichment needs during this time, Asferi said, adding that permanent suspension is 'by no means acceptable.'" http://t.uani.com/MfCrLX

Sanctions

Reuters: "Iran has reached agreements with European refiners to sell some of its oil through a private consortium, an official said on Saturday, a move designed to circumvent sanctions intended to put pressure on Tehran to halt its disputed nuclear program. The head of the oil products exporters' union said the agreement between the exporters' union, Iran's central bank, and the oil ministry would get round a European Union ban on shipping insurance for tankers carrying Iranian oil, though he gave few details and did not name the refiners involved." http://t.uani.com/NSEHXf

Bloomberg: "The head of Iran's executive, legislative, and judicial branches held a special meeting yesterday to discuss ways to counter Western-led sanctions against Iran, the state-run Mehr news agency reported. During the meeting, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Parliamentary Speaker Ali Larijani, and Judiciary Chief Sadegh Larijani emphasized the need for cooperation in fighting sanctions, Mehr said. Ahmadinejad and his cabinet also briefed the country's Expediency Council, which has the final say in disputes on legislation, on Iran's economic situation and measures to neutralize sanctions' effects, according to the report published late yesterday." http://t.uani.com/NhlwXe

Bloomberg: "Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has designed a one-year plan to avert the effects of increasing sanctions against the nation, Donya-e-Eqtesad reported, citing a top official. Ahmadinejad made the comments in a July 7 meeting when he gave a briefing on Iran's economic situation to the Expediency Council, which has the final say in disputes on legislation, Mohsen Rezai, the council's secretary said, according to the Tehran-based newspaper. The president participated along with the Central Bank governor, the oil, economy and finance, and industries, mines and commerce ministers, Donya said. Western-led sanctions against Iran have created problems in the past 2 years and pressure has intensified in the last six months leading to 'a drop in the foreign currency revenues,' 'complications for banking transfers,' and 'restrictions on ships that bring goods to Iran,' the government said, according to Rezai." http://t.uani.com/NeFBAy

Bloomberg: "An Iranian Parliament member rejected an inflation figure of 22.5 percent as given by official agencies, saying the current rate is 33.5 percent, Donya-e- Eqtesad reported. The figure hasn't been officially released, Gholamreza Kateb, the spokesman for the Parliament's planning committee, said without giving further detail, the newspaper said. Iran's inflation rate accelerated to 22.2 percent in the 12 months through the Iranian month of Ordibehesht, which ended May 20, from 21.8 percent the previous month, the Central Bank said last month." http://t.uani.com/Nam4je

Commerce

Bloomberg: "A Chinese company has invested some $500 million for the construction of a coal-fired power plant in central Iran, Tehran Times reported, citing Iranian Deputy Energy Minister Mohammad Behzad. Behzad, who didn't name the company, said the power plant will be located in the city of Tabas in Yazd Province and will be able to generate 650 megawatts of electricity. The project requires a total of 7 trillion rials ($570 million) and is planned to start operating within six years, Behzad said, according to the newspaper." http://t.uani.com/NiChod

Terrorism

AFP: "A US federal judge has ordered Iran to pay more than $813 million in damages and interest to the families of 241 US soldiers killed in the 1983 bombing of a Marine barracks in Lebanon. 'After this opinion, this court will have issued over $8.8 billion in judgments against Iran as a result of the 1983 Beirut bombing,' Judge Royce Lamberth wrote in a ruling this week, a copy of which was seen Friday by AFP. 'Iran is racking up quite a bill from its sponsorship of terrorism,' the Washington judge added, noting that 'a number of other Beirut bombing cases remain pending, and their completion will surely increase this amount.' On October 23, 1983, 241 American soldiers, including 220 Marines, were killed in Beirut when a truck packed with explosives rammed through barricades and detonated in front of the US barracks near Beirut's international airport." http://t.uani.com/N8K49c

Human Rights

Fox News: "A new court date has been set for Youcef Nadarkhani, the Iranian pastor on death row who has been imprisoned for nearly 1,000 days, but his supporters remain in the dark about what it could mean for his ultimate fate, FoxNews.com has learned. Nadarkhani, 35, is scheduled to appear in court on Sept. 8, according to Jordan Sekulow, executive Director of the American Center for Law and Justice, which has been closely monitoring the case. 'We do not know the purpose of the appearance or the likelihood of new charges,' Sekulow told FoxNews.com. 'We want to dispel any rumors that his current apostasy charge, for which he was sentenced to death, has been removed. Until the regime unconditionally exonerates and releases Pastor Youcef, his apostasy charge stands.'" http://t.uani.com/LXGa2v

Foreign Affairs

AFP: "Iran's deputy foreign minister said on Sunday that forcing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down and go into exile would be a 'joke,' warning an attack on his country would be 'stupid' and 'catastrophic.' 'Iran supports Assad's reform plans and the talk about forcing him to go into exile is a joke,' Hossein Amir Abdollahian told reporters in Amman, where he invited King Abdullah II to attend an August summit of Non-Aligned Movement. 'Military action Syria is unlikely and if this happens it would be stupid. Syria can defend itself without Iran's help. Any non-political solution would bring catastrophe to the entire region,' he said." http://t.uani.com/LBUQqc

AP: "State prosecutors in Frankfurt say they are investigating a 10-year-old's allegations she was inappropriately touched by an Iranian diplomat. Spokeswoman Doris Moeller-Scheu said Monday the girl told authorities employee of the Iranian consulate in Frankfurt approached her as she was playing and felt her hair, then followed her into her apartment building and tried to kiss her. She says the girl's mother immediately filed a complaint with police but didn't know who the suspect was until the girl recognized him on the street a week later. He was taken into custody but released after claiming diplomatic immunity. Iran says the diplomat is the target of a smear campaign of a smear campaign orchestrated by an Iranian opposition group." http://t.uani.com/MdllNs

JPost: "Iran's official news agency IRNA announced on Saturday that Iran had been elected as a representative of the Asian working group and deputy head of the UN Arms Trade Treaty Conference earlier in the week. The conference, which started last week, is a month-long effort to put together the first-ever binding multilateral treaty regulating the world's massive arms trade. The Geneva-based human rights group UN Watch responded on Sunday calling for UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to reject and condemn Iran's selection for a key role as part of the conference." http://t.uani.com/NUrA85

Opinion & Analysis

Michael Makovsky and Blaise Misztal in WSJ: "As efforts continue to prevent Iran from making nuclear weapons, a central Iranian negotiating demand is acknowledgment of its 'right' to enrich uranium under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Although spurious, this assertion has gone without a forceful public challenge. By categorically refuting the claim, the United States and its international partners could fortify and clarify their stance against Iran's nuclear program. The crux of world concern is Iran's uranium-enrichment program. Enrichment can produce fuel for electricity-generating nuclear reactors and fissile material for a nuclear weapon. Iran currently produces 3.5% and 20% enriched uranium, claiming that it requires the former for electricity generation and the latter for medical isotopes. While 20% is not yet weapons-grade (which is above 90%), the larger and more highly enriched Iran's uranium stockpile grows, the faster it can be turned into a nuclear weapon. Each month Iran produces enough 20%-enriched uranium to meet its medical needs for a year (nearly 20 pounds), yet it continues to expand its infrastructure for enriching uranium to this level. Iran says it is not breaking any rules and has a right to enrich uranium. Earlier this year, its chief negotiator demanded that 'any right which is indicated in the Nonproliferation Treaty should be respected.' During the Moscow talks in June with representatives of six world powers, AP quoted an Iranian delegate as saying that, 'Our minimum demand . . . is for them to recognize our right to uranium enrichment. If this is not accepted by the other side, then the talks will definitely collapse.' The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) grants no such right. Its Article IV merely states: '[N]othing in this Treaty shall be interpreted as affecting the inalienable right of all the Parties to the Treaty to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination and in conformity with articles I and II of this Treaty.' This raises two problems for Iran's assertion. First, enrichment isn't specifically enumerated. As the late nuclear strategist Albert Wohlstetter warned, 'the NPT is, after all, a treaty against proliferation, not for nuclear development.' Nothing in the NPT implies a right to possess all, especially potentially military, elements of nuclear technology.  Second, the right to peaceful use of nuclear energy is based on compliance with Article II of the treaty, which requires that any country without nuclear weapons 'undertakes . . . not to manufacture or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons.' Further, the country must, under Article III, accept International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) 'verification of the fulfillment of its obligations.' Iran has consistently violated these obligations." http://t.uani.com/RK5WYU

Michael Singh in WashPost: "Predictably, last week's 'expert level' talks between Iran and world powers were no more fruitful than previous rounds, leaving little optimism for a negotiated resolution to the nuclear crisis anytime soon. Western policymakers, buoyed by their success in reducing Iran's oil exports , appear content to give sanctions more time to work, in the hope that once Tehran feels their full effect negotiators will return to the table, more ready to compromise. The evidence, however, suggests that sanctions' effect on oil exports will not increase over time. First, Western policymakers tend to focus more on what Iran has lost than what it has retained or gained. That's fine for a political debate but bad for making sensible policy. It is true that Iran's oil exports have declined from 2.5 million barrels per day to 1.5 million. But that reduced level is hardly meager: Iran is still one of the world's top oil exporters, from which it earns billions in hard currency. And nothing suggests that the drop in earnings has stunted Iran's nuclear program, which is the target of Western ire. Iran is enriching uranium faster and to higher levels than ever before. If any party appears to feel a need to compromise, it is the 'P5 + 1' (the United States, Britain, China, France, Russia and Germany). They have dropped demands that Iran fully halt enrichment in favor of requesting that it merely cap enrichment at a low level. Furthermore, the historical evidence does not suggest that sanctions' effect on regimes grows over time. Numerous examples - including Moammar Gaddafi's Libya, Saddam Hussein's Iraq and present-day North Korea - demonstrate that such regimes are resilient and can hold out for a long time in the face of sanctions - and can even adapt to or circumvent them. There is also good reason to believe that states that reluctantly complied with oil sanctions will not make further reductions and may even increase oil imports from Iran as economic activity - and thus oil demand - recovers. Recent data suggest that Chinese oil purchases from Iran have increased despite a dropoff in the first quarter of this year. So while policymakers may hope that oil sanctions will continue to pay dividends, it is likely that the full effect has already taken hold... The most recent sanctions have been so significant because they seized on Iranian dependence on oil-export revenue - one of the regime's key vulnerabilities. To meaningfully increase the pressure, policymakers should identify and exploit the regime's other vulnerabilities." http://t.uani.com/PxNPqn

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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