Top Stories
Reuters:
"A South Korean ship classification society on Thursday sidestepped
calls from a U.S. lobby group to halt its verification work in Iran,
saying it was concerned that vessel safety and marine environment
protection could be compromised by political issues. Without verification
from such bodies, ships are unable to call at international ports. U.S.
group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) last week urged the Korean
Register of Shipping (KR) to stop providing classification and
certification services to the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines
(IRISL), its front companies and the National Iranian Tanker Company
(NITC). It had described KR's approach as 'irresponsible.' ... The
spokesman with UANI, which seeks to stop Iran's nuclear ambitions, said
EU and U.S. sanctions 'will work best when non-Western classification
societies join the cause instead of providing the regime with loopholes.'
'It is rather disingenuous to portray business with Iran as an exercise
in public safety, given how many companies and individuals stand to
profit from it,' the UANI spokesman said. 'It is impossible for a
shipping company to safely do business with Iran, given the regime's well
known history of deception, falsified cargoes, and shipments to and from
terrorists.'" http://t.uani.com/MNl3kz
AP:
"Both sides benefited from a meeting of technical experts from Iran
and six world powers focused on proposals to end the standoff over
Tehran's controversial nuclear program, but the talks will not
necessarily contribute to resolving the stalemate, diplomats said
Thursday. Speaking a day after the end of the Istanbul meeting, two
diplomats familiar with the talks were at pains to emphasize they were
not negotiations meant to overcome divisions that have stymied recent
high-level talks. Instead, they said, experts went into the technical
nitty-gritty of what each side was bringing to the table at the more
senior meetings. They said it was now up to officials at those higher
levels to decide whether that more detailed knowledge could serve as the
springboard for a new attempt to resolve differences." http://t.uani.com/ObJXpZ
Reuters:
"Iran's announcement that it plans to build its first
nuclear-powered submarine is stoking speculation it could serve as a
pretext for the Islamic state to produce highly enriched uranium and move
closer to potential atom bomb material. Western experts doubt that Iran -
which is under a U.N. arms embargo - has the capability any time soon to
make the kind of sophisticated underwater vessel that only the world's
most powerful states currently have. But they say Iran could use the plan
to justify more sensitive atomic activity, because nuclear submarines can
be fuelled by uranium refined to a level that would also be suitable for
the explosive core of a nuclear warhead. 'Such submarines often use HEU
(highly enriched uranium),' former chief U.N. nuclear inspector Olli
Heinonen said, adding Iran was unlikely to be able source the fuel abroad
because of the international dispute over its nuclear programme. It could
then 'cite the lack of foreign fuel suppliers as further justification
for continuing on its uranium enrichment path', Heinonen, now at Harvard
University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs,
said." http://t.uani.com/M8h39Z
Nuclear
Program
Reuters: "Iran and the United
States might be talking up their readiness for war in the Gulf but
beneath the rhetoric, all sides are appear keen to avoid conflict and
prevent accidental escalation - at least for now. This week, a string of
hawkish Iranian statements - including a renewed threat to close the
Strait of Hormuz and destroy U.S. bases 'within minutes' of an attack -
helped push benchmark Brent crude oil prices above $100 for the first
time since June. Western military officials and analysts say Tehran does
have the capability to wreak regional havoc. But the current
saber-rattling, they believe, is more about moving markets and trying to
give the West second thoughts over the ever-tightening oil sanctions
aimed at cutting back Tehran's nuclear programme." http://t.uani.com/N27YAh
JPost:
"Bombing Iran is not the stupidest idea Meir Dagan has heard after
all, the former Mossad head made clear in an interview in the recent
issue of Lochem magazine, distancing himself from his statement earlier
this year - which was widely circulated to discredit a possible Israeli
military action against Tehran. 'This was a miserable quote that was said
absentmindedly, not in public, and which someone quotes all the time,'
Dagan said in the magazine for disabled IDF veterans. 'Let's set the
record straight. I think the Iranian nuclear capacity is a threat with
strategic implications for Israel. I know the air force well enough to
know that it will perform successfully any task entrusted to it.' While
stepping away from that particular quote, Dagan did not however move away
from the substance of his opposition to military action. 'I do see a
nuclear Iran as a problem,' he said. 'If I believed that a military
attack would solve the problem, believe me, I would be in favor.'" http://t.uani.com/NbM2Vw
Sanctions
Reuters:
"India's oil imports from Iran fell 18.2 percent in June from a year
earlier in a third straight monthly decline, although the pace slowed as
refiners built stocks ahead of Western sanctions against Tehran's nuclear
programme that took effect by July... State-run Mangalore Refinery and
Petrochemicals Ltd was the biggest Indian client of Iran in June,
shipping in 160,000 bpd, a jump of more than 270 percent from May and
about 40 percent from a year ago. June volumes are higher as MRPL took
delayed delivery of its cargoes scheduled for May, when its refinery was
shut. MRPL's annual imports from Iran between January and June declined
about 38 percent to 93,800 bpd. In the January-June period, Essar Oil was
the top Indian client of Tehran, buying 126,900 bpd of oil, nearly 25
percent more than a year ago. Essar, which raised Iranian imports in the
January-March period to stock up and meet last fiscal year's commitments,
bought about 116,300 bpd in June, a significant rise from about 33,000
bpd in May." http://t.uani.com/M9WgEG
Bloomberg:
"India is using euros to clear most of its purchases of Iranian oil
through a Turkish bank because of hurdles in making rupee payments,
according to three people with knowledge of the transactions. While some
payments have been made in rupees, they are more difficult after India
barred Tehran-based Parsian Bank from opening a branch in Mumbai and
because the rupee can't be directly converted overseas to other
currencies, the people said, asking not to be identified because the
information is confidential. The euro payments are continuing even as the
U.S. and the European Union seek to limit oil revenue in Iran, which they
say is developing nuclear weapons. The payments also mean Iran won't be
handicapped by difficulties in converting rupees, the worst performer
among Asian currencies over the past 12 months." http://t.uani.com/LBjzGk
Ottawa Citizen:
"A major Canadian bank has begun to close the accounts of some of
its customers to comply with new federal regulations that govern economic
sanctions against Iran. TD Bank Group has confirmed it has been sending
letters to clients telling them under recent changes to the Special
Economic Measures (Iran) Regulation, Canadian financial institutions are
forbidden from providing financial services to anyone in Iran or for the
benefit of Iran. That appears to include any use of an account to send or
receive money via wire transfer to or from friends and family in Iran. So
far, it seems no other Canadian bank has taken similar action, but TD
Bank Group spokesperson Mohammed Nakhooda said the bank is simply
following regulations set out by the Canadian government." http://t.uani.com/PhEKSv
Foreign Affairs
Haaretz:
"The time has come for the disappearance of Israel and the West from
the face of the universe, a senior Iranian official was quoted as saying
on Thursday, saying that they were the 'prime sources of tyranny and
gloom.' ... Speaking at a Tehran conference, Larijani was cited by Iran's
Press TV as saying that 'the time has come for the disappearance of the
West and the Zionist regime - which are two dark spots in the present era
- from the face of the universe.' 'The U.S. and the Zionist regime are
the prime sources of tyranny and gloom in the current age. The Muslim
world is fed up with the injustice and abuse by these governments,'
Larijani added." http://t.uani.com/M9okYx
AP:
"Iran says it has invited Egypt's new Islamist president to Tehran
for a summit meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement in August. Iranian
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said he talked to Egypt's president,
Mohammed Morsi, and offered the invitation, according to Ahmadinejad's
website. Morsi is the first Islamist president of Egypt and the first to
be democratically elected. Egyptian officials were not available for
comment Thursday. Egypt is the current chair of the Non-Aligned Movement
and is due to turn over the position to Iran at the summit." http://t.uani.com/N36fMK
AP:
"Iran's spy chief is accusing French and German intelligence
services of cooperating with the CIA to kill Iranian nuclear scientists.
Heidar Moslehi said Friday that intelligence services in the region have
also taken part in the campaign. He did not name other countries. In the
past, Iran has blamed the U.S., Britain and Israel over the killing of
five nuclear scientists. The last assassination was in January. The U.S.
and Britain have denied involvement. Israel has not commented." http://t.uani.com/NHdvuA
Opinion &
Analysis
Chicago Tribune
Editorial Board: "The tighter trade sanctions
recently imposed on Iran ought to be the ultimate test of whether
economic pressure can be painful enough to force an undemocratic
government to give up the quest for nuclear weapons. We say 'ought to be'
because this effort falls way short of an ultimate test. Too many
countries just aren't ready to make it a critical priority. The Obama
administration has made much of its program to sap Tehran's economic
vitality, and it is an ambitious plan. The European Union has established
an embargo on Iranian oil imports, and under a new U.S. law, foreign
banks have to stop doing business with Iran's central bank in order to
maintain access to American financial institutions. Iran has seen its oil
exports drop to 1.5 million barrels a day, down from 2.5 million last
year. 'We're going directly at their revenue and making it increasingly
difficult for them to access that revenue,' Treasury Department official
David S. Cohen told The New York Times. But considerably less difficult than
it could be. Not everyone is strongly resolved to punish the Iranian
regime for its dangerous ambitions, and Washington has cut some countries
a lot of slack. It has granted exemptions to no fewer than 20 nations
that buy Iranian oil - including China, Japan and India, which are Iran's
three biggest customers. Ten members of the EU also qualified. How did
they manage to get a pass? The U.S. law permits such accommodation for
countries that have 'significantly reduced' their purchase of Iranian
oil. And 'significant,' as defined by the State Department, may be a
synonym for 'not much.'" http://t.uani.com/N9NWT1
Meghan O'Sullivan
in LAT: "The latest Iran sanctions came into full
effect this week, adding to a byzantine array of unilateral and
multilateral measures that prohibit Iranian oil imports, other trade and
financial transactions, and freeze Iranian assets by countries concerned
that Tehran's nuclear program is intended for military purposes, not
civilian ones. The international community is now on watch for cracks in
Iran's defiant stance: Will increased sanctions compel Tehran to make
real concessions and allow for a diplomatic solution to the standoff?
This characterization is too simplistic, however, and the record suggests
there may be some reasons to be optimistic that current sanctions on Iran
will deliver. Sanctions generally get a bad rap, with many declaring that
they don't work. First, sanctions against Iran are today just one tool in
a larger strategy. In other cases - in South Africa, Serbia and Libya,
for example - where sanctions have worked, they were not stand-alone
instruments. In past decades, sanctions against Iran have constituted the
entirety of the U.S.-led strategy against Tehran's nuclear ambitions.
Today, in contrast, the U.S. approach involves not only sanctions but
also diplomatic talks, and at least some threat of military force.
Perhaps more important, sanctions against Iran have already had a real
economic impact. Some reports assess that Iranian oil imports have
dropped by as much as 1 million barrels a day since the end of 2011. This
puts pressure on Iran's budget, nearly 70% of which is funded by oil
revenue. Moreover, the value of the Iranian rial has dropped dramatically
since September 2011 on account of Iran's growing isolation from the
international banking system and the need to resort to barter
arrangements. As a result, inflation is on the rise. But the real test of
sanctions is not whether they are part of a nicely crafted strategy, or
whether they create economic hardship, but whether they induce a change
in the behavior of Tehran's leaders. Anticipating whether the pain from
sanctions is sufficient to force this shift is always difficult, and even
more so in a country like Iran where decision-making is opaque. After
all, leaders from every country will insist they are impervious to the
pressure - right up until the moment they make the sought-after
concession." http://t.uani.com/L4P7HN
Omid Memarian in
The Daily Beast: "Is it myth or reality that
Iranians support the government's policy of pursuing the enrichment of
uranium that has brought the country severe sanctions and international
isolation? In a country where the state controls all means of
communications, and where anybody who challenges the state's official
narrative faces persecution, that's not easy to find out. But citizens'
responses to a survey that appeared on the website of Iran's state TV on
Tuesday might be revealing. Sixty-three percent of users said they favor
suspending Iran's uranium enrichment in exchange for a gradual lifting of
international sanctions against Iran. Those results were registered by
8:30 p.m. Tehran time Tuesday. There was no estimate for the number of
respondents. Participants were offered three possible responses when asked,
'What method do you prefer vis-à-vis the unilateral sanctions imposed
against Iran by the West.' Aside from the 62 percent who favored
suspension of enrichment, 19 percent chose 'Retaliatory action by Iran to
close the Hormuz Strait,' while 18 percent chose 'Resistance against the
unilateral sanctions in order to maintain the nuclear rights.' This
survey was published one day after Ebrahim Agha Mohammadi, a member of
the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission,
presented a bill to Parliament urging that members 'block the Hormuz
Strait in response to the sanctions by West.' Such a measure would be a
radical, highly confrontational response to sanctions. No action has yet
been taken by lawmakers... 'Americans are told they have an inalienable
right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness,' Karim Sadjadpour,
Iran analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told The
Daily Beast. 'Iranians are deprived freedom, but told that they have an
inalienable right to enrich uranium. You can only insult your
population's intelligence for so long.' ... 'The economic well-being of
the Iranian people has never been a top-tier priority of the Iranian
regime,' said Sadjadpour. 'The colossal domestic and foreign-policy
mismanagement during the Ahmadinejad era has been a far greater
contributor to Iran's economic malaise than sanctions.' ... 'For 10 years
now the Iranian government has been touting its nuclear program as a
technological and economic crown jewel. Given that life has gotten harder
for most Iranians during this period, it's only natural that people are
questioning whether it's worth the enormous costs they're enduring,' said
Sadjadpour." http://t.uani.com/NbM2Vw
Julian Borger in
The Guardian: "The official talks between Iran and
six major powers continue to creep forward with no sign of progress.
Technical experts met in Istanbul on Tuesday to thrash out the science
involved in the negotiations, but the rift between the two sides is wide
and essentially political. The next step is supposed to be a meeting
between mid-level diplomats - the deputy EU foreign policy
representative, Helga Schmid, and her Iranian counterpart, Ali Bagheri,
more to keep the conversation going than in any genuine sense of forward
movement. Meanwhile, the fullest exposition of the Iranian position to
date has surfaced in the form of a document presented at the Iranian
mission to the UN on Tuesday to a group of US nuclear experts, at the
same time as the Istanbul meeting. The document, which was first reported
by Al-Monitor, appears to be a paper version of the PowerPoint
presentation given by the Iranian delegation to the Moscow talks last
month, and it is a tough read. It comprehensively rejects the EU-brokered
proposal for Iran to stop production of 20%-enriched uranium, to shut
down production at the underground Fordow centrifuge plant, and ship out
Iran's stockpile of 20% uranium ('stop, shut and ship'), in return for
fuel plates for a medical research reactor, nuclear safety assistance, and
parts for commercial airliners. The document states that Iran needs its
20% uranium not just for the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR) but 'for at
least 4 other research reactors because of the territorial extent of Iran
and the short lifetime of medical isotopes'. It also suggested that
Tehran might want to sell its nuclear fuel abroad, another rationale for
producing more than it currently needs. The New York document also says
that shutting down Fordow 'has no relation to 20%' because other
activities are carried out at the site. It rejects transferring the 20%
stockpile out of the country as it says that stockpile is already 'under
the supervision of the IAEA, sealed by the IAEA and inspectors of the
agency do ... unannounced inspections.' The Iranian presentation makes
light of the incentives on offer. It treats the offer of foreign-made
fuel plates for the TRR, not as a sweetener for Tehran, but as a favour
Iran would be doing the rest of the world, cooperating with the six-power
group 'to provide fuel' for the reactor. In return the six powers 'will
terminate the sanctions and will remove Iran's nuclear file from the [UN
Security Council] agenda.' The document also demands the lifting of
sanctions in return for cooperation with the IAEA in its investigation of
the 'possible military dimensions' of the Iranian programme, an enquiry
Iran insists is grounded on 'baseless accusations and ambiguities'. The
central demand is that the six powers openly recognise Iran's right to
enrich uranium, in return for which the Islamic Republic would 'emphasise
once again ..its commitments under the NPT and its opposition to nuclear
weapons based on the Supreme Leader's fatwa against such weapons'. In
other words, iran wants the international community to allow it's programme
go forward without restrictions in return for the Supreme Leader's
promise not to make bombs." http://t.uani.com/LCfWA3
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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