Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Eye on Iran: S.Korean POSCO Cuts Back on Iran Steel Business









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Reuters: "South Korean steelmaker POSCO, minority-owned by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, has cut ties with government entities and sensitive industries in Iran such as energy and continues to trade with private firms, a letter showed... In a letter sent to U.S. pressure group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) dated Feb. 28 and seen by Reuters, POSCO, a top global steelmaker, said it had scaled down business with Iran. 'Certain of POSCO's subsidiaries continue to engage in transactions in Iran,' POSCO's chief legal officer Song Se-Bin wrote in the letter... Song said POSCO entities had 'completed, terminated or assigned all of their activities related to the sensitive sectors of the Iranian economy - the energy, defence and nuclear sectors'... A targeted campaign by UANI, which includes former U.S. ambassadors as well as former CIA and British intelligence chiefs on its board, has led to several foreign companies in sectors including shipping to exit Iran. UANI, which is funded by private donations and backs tougher sanctions on Tehran, had called on POSCO to cease its Iran trade. UANI chief executive Mark Wallace said it appreciated the company had taken multiple steps to reduce its Iran business. 'We continue to call, however, for POSCO to fully end its business in Iran,' said Wallace, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations." http://t.uani.com/15KtHHo

Reuters: "Global oil market conditions are ripe for the West to further pressure Iran over its nuclear program, but the window will likely close next year as fuel demand is expected to rise in Asia, a report to be released on Wednesday said. For most of the past decade, a tight oil market limited the ability of Western countries to use sanctions to dampen the nuclear ambitions of Iran, one of the world's top crude producers, said the report by the nonpartisan Securing America's Future Energy and Roubini Global Economics. In the last year, new U.S. and European sanctions targeting Iran's crude sales came when the global oil market could handle a loss of the Islamic Republic's crude exports. Global oil demand has been slow to recover from the recession and crude output has risen steadily from the United States and other nations outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. 'This opportunity will not last indefinitely,' said the report called 'Decision Point: A Well-Supplied Global Oil Market Will Make 2013 the Year to Deal with Iran,' to be released at the Harvard Club in New York on Wednesday." http://t.uani.com/15MnH0K

AFP: "Iran could not produce enough highly-enriched uranium for an atomic bomb without being detected, US National Intelligence Director James Clapper said Tuesday. While Iran has made strides in its nuclear program, 'we assess Iran could not divert safeguarded material and produce a weapon-worth of WGU (weapons-grade uranium) before this activity is discovered,' Clapper said in an annual report to Congress on global threats... The US intelligence assessment, however, found that Iran has moved forward with its uranium enrichment efforts. 'Of particular note, Iran has made progress during the past year that better positions it to produce weapons-grade uranium (WGU) using its declared facilities and uranium stockpiles, should it choose to do so,' the report said... But because Iranian leaders put a high priority on preserving their power and would carefully weigh the risks of obtaining nuclear weapons, the United States and its allies had an opportunity to exert influence over Tehran's ultimate decision, he said." http://t.uani.com/Yn0jnj
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Nuclear Program

AP: "A news agency says Iran plans to submit a written promise to the United Nations that it will not seek nuclear weapons. The Tuesday report by the semi-official Mehr news agency quotes Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi as saying, 'Iran plans to declare in the U.N. that it will never go after nuclear bombs.' Rahimi did not say when the promise would be delivered. He charged that the Western sanctions aim to thwart Iran's 'scientific progress.'" http://t.uani.com/14Wls8H

Today's Zaman: "An investigation conducted by the federal prosecutor's office of Germany has revealed that Iranian front companies based in İstanbul transported 941 items with nuclear applications through Turkey, the Bugün daily reported on Tuesday. According to the report, in 2012 German police detected that materials with nuclear applications obtained in Germany and India were transported to the Mitech company in Iran through Turkey by an Iranian national, Hossein Tanideh. Mitech is under US and European Union-imposed sanctions. Germany's Federal Criminal Police Office, which is also the German branch of Interpol, informed its counterpart in Turkey about Tanideh's dealings, and Tanideh was arrested after being referred to the Küçükçekmece Court in İstanbul on Jan. 19, 2013." http://t.uani.com/Wn6aJN 

Sanctions 

Bloomberg: "OPEC's biggest oil producers are in talks to supply extra crude to India as the nation prepares to halt purchases from Iran because of global sanctions, four people with knowledge of the matter said. Indian refiners, which are waiting for an order from the oil ministry on whether to stop buying Iranian cargoes, are discussing annual term contracts with Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait for the year starting April 1, the people said this week, asking not to be identified because the information is confidential. While the volume hasn't been set, the Indian companies have been told there is enough supply to cover the loss of Iranian crude, the people said. The assurances reduce the risk of disruptions to oil supplies for Asia's third-largest economy as it seeks to cut fuel subsidies and narrow its budget deficit. They are also evidence of how global penalties against Iran because of its nuclear program are squeezing the nation's revenues. At current prices, Iran stands to lose about $11.5 billion in sales annually if India stops buying its oil." http://t.uani.com/X6yaOY

Bloomberg: "Iranian oil shipments advanced 13 percent last month even as the U.S. implemented sanctions complicating sales from the Persian Gulf country, according to the International Energy Agency. Countries purchased 1.28 million barrels a day from Iran in February, compared with an upwardly revised 1.13 million barrels daily in January, the Paris-based adviser to 28 oil-consuming nations said in a report today. New U.S. rules requiring importers to pay in local currencies kept in escrow accounts did not appear to affect February shipments, the agency said... Iranian exports are still down from a daily average of 1.5 million a day last year and 2.5 million in 2011, before sanctions intensified, IEA estimates show. The country's output, once the second-highest in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, also expanded last month, rising 2.6 percent to 2.72 million barrels a day, compared with 3 million barrels a day in 2012, according to the IEA." http://t.uani.com/13VI2CJ

Reuters: "Iran's state grain buyer has been in talks with export houses aimed at buying around 121,254 tons of U.S.-origin milling wheat, traders said, even as the United States and Europe impose toughened sanctions to stem Tehran's nuclear program. Iranian wheat imports are traditionally handled by the private sector and government, but the state has taken a bigger role with purchases in the past year after disruption to trade finance caused by toughened Western sanctions targeting the country's disputed nuclear program. Sanctions do not stop food shipments but they make it difficult for Iranian importers to obtain letters of credit to finance purchases or conduct international transfers of funds through banks." http://t.uani.com/YaAQv2

Terrorism

WashPost: "Iran's expulsion of a senior al-Qaeda official appears to signal a crackdown on the terrorist group that has long been granted safe haven within its borders, U.S. officials say. Iran's ouster of Sulaiman Abu Ghaith, a former al-Qaeda spokesman and the son-in-law of Osama bin Laden, marked at least the third time in the past year that a prominent al-Qaeda figure has left the country after living for years in a limbo between houseguest and home detainee. U.S. officials and terrorism experts say the tougher stance appears to reflect growing tensions between Iran's Shiite clerics and the Sunni Muslim terrorist group, particularly over the civil war in Syria, where they are backing opposing sides. At the same time, Western intelligence agencies see steps by Iran to preserve ties with al-Qaeda by allowing the group to use Iranian territory as a transit route to and from Afghanistan, U.S. officials and analysts say. 'We believe that Iran continues to allow al-Qaeda to operate a network that moves al-Qaeda money and fighters through Iran to support al-Qaeda activities in South Asia,' David S. Cohen, the Treasury Department's undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, said in an interview." http://t.uani.com/Z1scBx

Human Rights

Reuters: "The family of a former U.S. Marine detained in Iran for 19 months is calling for his release, saying he has suffered in solitary confinement and his cancer-stricken father needs him. Iranian-American Amir Hekmati, 29, was arrested in August 2011, his family says, and convicted of spying for the CIA, a charge his relatives and the United States deny. His family says he was detained while visiting his grandmother in Tehran. He was sentenced to death but a higher court 'nullified' the penalty in March 2012 and sent the case to another court. He remains in jail with little access to a lawyer or family visits, his sister Sarah Hekmati told Reuters by telephone this week. 'Now, a year later ... there is silence on their end and we really need help understanding where his case is going,' she said." http://t.uani.com/X6x71w

AFP: "The United Nations' monitor for human rights in Iran sounded the alarm Tuesday over a rise in arrests of journalists, saying this was part of a pattern of increasing violations as presidential elections loom. Seventeen journalists were arrested in the space of one week in January, Ahmed Shaheed told reporters. In addition, some 50 journalists were already behind bars, he said. 'I'm increasingly alarmed about the plight of journalists, bloggers and others who are defenders and practitioners of freedom of expression in Iran,' he said. 'They have been charged with communicating with international news organisations or communicating with human rights organisations, both of which should be protected under law rather than being penalised.'" http://t.uani.com/Zzv0DM

NYT: "With presidential elections approaching in June, Iran has cracked down on journalists, rights activists and lawyers apparently in a bid to stifle dissent, a United Nations investigator said on Tuesday. He also said that the judicial authorities in Iran had tortured some Iranians for contacting him... Mr. Shaheed said he had been unable to visit Iran because it refused to cooperate with his investigations but noted that his report was based on 169 interviews, two-thirds of them inside Iran and corroborated what he called independent sources. 'I think I established beyond reasonable doubt that my information is valid,' he said in an interview. He also said he believed that Iran cared about what is said about it in the council, the media or other public outlets, which had sometimes led to what he called positive measures by the Iranian authorities. 'At least a dozen lives were saved because of the intervention of international opinion,' Mr. Shaheed said." http://t.uani.com/WHowHH
 
Opinion & Analysis


Michael Eisenstadt in WINEP: "That said, the U.S. still needs to maintain a sizable naval presence in the gulf, it still needs to be ready to send a second aircraft carrier back to the region in event of a crisis, and it needs to significantly strengthen U.S. aerospace forces in the region. This would assure its wary Gulf Cooperation Council allies that the canceled deployment of the carrier does not signify reduced U.S. commitment to their security. It would counter possible Iranian efforts to take credit for the carrier's departure. And it would signal to Iran that the canceled deployment of the second carrier does not translate to a loss of capability. In particular, the failure to offset the departure of the carrier with the strengthening of aerospace forces in the gulf could turn an act of military prudence, prompted by a desire to cut costs, into a major setback for America's standing in the region, by reinforcing the impression that the U.S. is abandoning its allies there. The canceled deployment should also force a rethink of how to more effectively employ the military to support nuclear diplomacy with Iran. Having repeatedly eschewed, for several decades now, the use of force in response to Iranian-sponsored terrorism, the U.S. suffers from a credibility deficit vis-a-vis Iran. Accordingly, repeated assertions by American officials that 'all options are on the table' do not resonate powerfully in the Iranian capital. What is needed is a long-term effort to alter Tehran's risk calculus and its perception of U.S. credibility and resolve. With Iran, subtlety and indirection work better than bluster and direct threats. Successful diplomacy also requires a credible offer to Tehran of a peaceful nuclear program that cannot serve as a path to 'the bomb.' A good start would be an end to statements by senior U.S. officials that cast doubt on the efficacy of military action Iran's nuclear program; more assertive responses to Tehran's use of proxies and involvement in terrorism -- for instance, working with allies to 'out' and expel Iranian intelligence agents operating abroad; and actions that demonstrate the U.S. is preparing for the possibility of a confrontation with Tehran, such as withdrawing dependents from select embassies and military facilities in the region. Leaks to the media that highlight how the U.S. is preparing for the possibility of a conflict in the gulf also could be useful. Such moves will do more than the presence of a carrier in the gulf did to convince Tehran that while Washington seeks to peacefully resolve the nuclear crisis with Iran, it is preparing in earnest for other outcomes -- and that the Islamic Republic should seize the possibility of a diplomatic solution while it can." http://t.uani.com/YrDM5L

Meir Javedanfar in The Diplomat: "Despite decades of tough sanctions, North Korea has managed to defy the West and build a nuclear bomb. It has even gone as far as conducting nuclear tests on numerous occasions while threatening war. Besides being troubling in its own right, the West's inability to stop North Korea through sanctions and diplomacy could send the message to Iran that it too can defy the West. In fact, a number of Western commentators and political leaders have warned in recent weeks that North Korea's experience could embolden Iran. The North Korean regime has undoubtedly managed to defy the international community, however, this does not mean that Tehran could do the same. In fact, if we look closer at the major differences between the economies and power structures of both countries, we could reach the opposite conclusion: that North Korea's recent experience could in fact deter Iran from making and testing a nuclear weapon. One of the most important factors which could bring Iran's leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to such a conclusion is the fact that developing and testing nuclear weapons has not removed or reduced sanctions against the North Korean regime. In fact, these actions have brought additional sanctions. The same would almost undoubtedly happen if Iran finally decides to build a nuclear weapon. Although the North Korean regime may be able to withstand open-ended sanctions and isolation, the same cannot be said about Iran, which is much more sensitive to sanctions. Should sanctions continue and potentially be strengthened, they could even turn into an existential threat for the regime. As Iran's post-1979 revolution history has shown, the Iranian regime is ultimately able to live without a bomb; it can't live without a functioning economy. And there is nothing more important to Iran's supreme leader than the survival of his regime.  One of the main factors that makes the Iranian regime more sensitive to sanctions than the North Korean regime is the difference between their power structures." http://t.uani.com/Wn6Q1B

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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