Top Stories
Reuters:
"Britain has granted billions of pounds worth of military export
licenses for countries such as Syria, Iran and Libya despite proclaiming
deep concerns about their human rights records, the British parliament
said on Wednesday. In a critical report, parliament's Committees on Arms
Export Controls said Britain had approved licenses for weapons exports to
27 countries worth 12.3 billion pounds ($18.6 billion) highlighting the
'inherent conflict' between its arms exports policy and its human rights
policy. 'The government should apply significantly more cautious
judgments when considering arms export license applications for goods to
authoritarian regimes in contravention of the government's stated policy,'
said John Stanley, the chairman of the committees. It was not clear
whether goods had actually been shipped to the countries for which arms
export licenses had been given. Parts for bullet-proof vehicles and
underwater listening devices were approved for export to Syria while Iran
licenses covered civil aircraft and a range of military electronic
equipment including 80 million pounds' worth of encryption devices and
software." http://t.uani.com/111OvJR
WSJ:
"Iran's President-elect Hasan Rouhani, after winning office with an
unexpected level of popular support, will put his political pull to the
test in the coming weeks with the appointment of a cabinet lineup that
could anger his foes. Mr. Rouhani, who takes office in early August, has
promised to deliver a balanced government that draws from technocrats and
former officials from reformist political factions and the conservatives
who were trounced in elections a month ago. Iran's conservative parties
have regrouped to debate how to overcome their low popularity and
perceived policy failures. They have also criticized an initial list of
potential cabinet nominations leaked to the media that would put
reformists, who support moderate policies and a more open society, back
into decision-making roles. In a system in which each nominated cabinet
member must get parliamentary approval, some conservative legislators
openly warned this week that they could block nominations." http://t.uani.com/1brEF9V
Reuters:
"India has extended a temporary approval to Iranian underwriters
Kish P&I Club and Moallem Insurance Co for covering container and
tanker vessels calling at Indian ports, in a move that should clear a
backlog of non-oil shipments. The three-month extension is unlikely to
revive imports of Iranian oil as most Indian buyers have halted shipments
because of an insurance issue related to their refineries. The previous
approval given to Kish and Moallem to cover Iranian vessels lapsed on
June 28. Since then Iran-bound containers of engineering goods, rice,
soymeal and other items have been stranded at Indian ports, while
shipment of fertilizers and other India-bound goods have piled up at
Bandar Abbas port in the sanctions-hit nation. The approval of the
three-month extension to Kish and Moallem takes effect from the date of
the lapse, according to a shipping ministry letter dated July 17 to the
Directorate General of Shipping and seen by Reuters... India, however, is
worried about the financial strength of Kish and Moallem and has sought
government guarantees to back up the companies, while granting them
three-month approvals to insure ships calling at Indian ports." http://t.uani.com/11ZQIs2
Sanctions
WashPost:
"This capital's vast bazaar is home to, by most estimates, the
highest concentration of handmade rugs in the world, with millions of the
floor coverings piled high in more than a thousand shops in a labyrinth
of ancient passageways. Iran's rug exports, however, are declining -
revenue was down 17 percent last year - as are the number of people
employed in the industry. Many people associated with the trade believe
its survival is threatened. The centuries-old industry has been hit hard
by repeated economic crises in recent years, as well as by economic
sanctions imposed by the United States, formerly the biggest market for
Persian carpets. Even in Iran, cheaper, machine-made rugs are starting to
outsell handmade ones. The industry's decline is just one more problem
facing the Islamic republic's president-elect, Hassan Rouhani, when he
takes office in early August... After energy products, handmade rugs are
Iran's most important export, accounting for $560 million last year,
which amounts to about 20 percent of the global handmade rug
market." http://t.uani.com/111OOV7
Terrorism
AFP:
"A year after an anti-Israeli bus bombing killed six people,
Bulgaria is struggling to identify the attacker or confirm his suspected
links to Hezbollah or Iran. The July 18, 2012 bombing at Bulgaria's Black
Sea Burgas airport was the deadliest attack on Israelis abroad since 2004
and the first in an EU member state. Five Israeli tourists and their
Bulgarian (Muslim) bus driver were killed and some 30 other people were
injured... Two identical driver's licences -- made in Lebanon and used by
two of the perpetrator's suspected accomplices -- allowed investigators
to track down the real identities of Canadian and Australian passport
holders residing in Lebanon since 2006 and 2010. 'What we can make as a
justified conclusion is that the two persons whose identity we have
established belonged to the military wing of Hezbollah,' the then
Interior Minister Tsvetan Tsvetanov said in February." http://t.uani.com/17nuWN2
Domestic
Politics
WSJ:
"What does it take for Iran to try to erase the lifework of one of
its most celebrated film directors? A visit to Israel. Mohsen Makhmalbaf,
a 56-year-old internationally acclaimed director, went to Jerusalem last
week to be honored as a special guest of the Jerusalem Film Festival...
He is the first prominent Iranian to officially visit Israel. The Islamic
Republic's flag, with its Allah emblem, fluttered next to flags of other
countries represented at the festival, including Israel's. It didn't take
long for Iranian officials to react. Iran's cinema organization banned
the sale of all of Mr. Makhmalbaf's movies and ordered the museum of
cinema to clear out the section devoted to Mr. Makhmalbaf career, awards
and memorabilia from his movies. Javad Shamghadari, the head of the
country's cinema organization, called Mr. Makhmalbaf a person with 'no
roots' and a 'lost soul' who was seeking lowly honors." http://t.uani.com/194T2jz
Bloomberg:
"Summer in Tehran can be tough on women, as temperatures rise and the
Islamic Guidance Patrols are on the lookout for citizens who might be
persuaded by the heat to ignore -- more than usual -- Iran's dress code.
This summer's different. In the pause between the June 14 election of a
new president, Hassan Rohani, and the Aug. 3 exit of the old, Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad, the green and white vans of the fashion police are rare
sights. Women, who are expected to conceal their hair and body shapes,
are taking advantage." http://t.uani.com/1bLbldc
Opinion &
Analysis
Amitai Etzioni in
The National Interest: "Iran, a state that is known
to support terrorists and insurgent groups, has its tentacles in several
states throughout the Middle East. Trying to pry one loose, even if
successful, will leave the others tightening their unwelcome grip. And
the point of no return for stopping Iran's nuclear program is rapidly
approaching, even according to the hyper-cautious President Obama.
Indeed, in March Obama told an Israeli television station that it would
take Iran 'over a year or so' to develop a nuclear weapon. The best way
to deal with Iran's various attempts to dominate the Middle East is not
to face it indirectly in one arena after another, but to go after the
mainland. If Iran were defanged, Hezbollah's military arm would soon run
out of funds and top-of-the-line weapons, forcing the organization to
rely more on its political arm and thus become more of a Lebanese
political party than a terrorist organization. And it would lose its
capacity to checkmate other Lebanese parties and forces, especially the
ethnically neutral and stabilizing Lebanese army. If Iran were defanged,
Hezbollah would be forced to withdraw its forces from Syria, leaving
Assad without a major source of arms, advisers and funds. The Iraqi Shia
would be less emboldened, and might be more ready to come to terms with
their Sunni compatriots. While Iran's influence in Iraq is limited, it
does egg on the more extremist Shia wing. Bahrain, Qatar, the Emirates
and Saudi Arabia would find it much easier to deal with Shia-driven
violent dissent in their respective parts. In contrast, engaging
indirectly in a proxy fight with Iran in Syria is a very tricky maneuver.
As many have pointed out, it is not clear whom to support, what we can
safely give them and whether whatever we do give them will suffice. As I
warned in these spaces prior to Obama's announcement that he will provide
some modicum of military aid to Syria, a weak response is worse than none
at all. Given the poor training and infighting among the Syrian rebels
and the strength of the combined forces supporting the Syrian regime,
including Sunni militias (in addition to the national army) and
Hezbollah, Assad may very well prevail. A weak performance by U.S.-backed
groups will serve only to further embolden Iran and its various proxy
fighters in Syria. And a larger involvement by the United States will not
only antagonize Russia, but lead to it shipping more powerful weapons to
Assad. The United States will have to engage Iran in any case if
President Obama is to live up to his oft-repeated commitment to prevent
Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Granted, the election of a smiling
'moderate,' Hassan Rowhani, makes confronting Iran more difficult. The
United States should hence give him a chance to withdraw Iranian support
for terrorists, insurgents and tyrannical regimes and live up to Iran's
commitments under the Nonproliferation Treaty. But if Iran's next
president does not change its present course, we must face the
possibility that the Middle East will be dominated by Iran and that more
blood will be shed in Syria and elsewhere. This threat may only be
stopped by going after the head of the creature, rather than each of the
various tentacles that it is planting throughout the region." http://t.uani.com/1brHIPr
David Albright
& Christina Walrond in ISIS: "Iran is expected
to achieve a critical capability in mid-2014, which is defined as the
technical capability to produce sufficient weapon-grade uranium from its
safeguarded stocks of low enriched uranium for a nuclear explosive,
without being detected. Iran would achieve this capability
principally by implementing its existing, firm plans to install thousands
more IR-1 centrifuges, and perhaps a few thousand IR-2m centrifuges, at
its declared Natanz and Fordow centrifuge sites. Iran's criticality
date could be achieved a few months earlier, if Iran successfully deploys
and operates several thousand advanced centrifuges and continues
installing thousands of IR-1 centrifuges. A priority is preventing
Iran from achieving a critical capability through sanctions, increased
frequency of international inspections, and negotiations." http://t.uani.com/1dGYyqa
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