Monday, September 23, 2013

Eye on Iran: All Eyes Will be on Iran's Rouhani at U.N. General Assembly







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LAT:
"For the last six years, the Iranian president's speech at the annual gathering of the United Nations has been met by a ritual walkout of Western diplomats. This year, they're likely to hang around till the end - and some may even applaud. Instead of the angry Holocaust-denying diatribes of former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, his soft-spoken successor, Hassan Rouhani, is likely to give a conciliatory address to world leaders this week. It will be closely watched for signs that he is willing to thaw relations with the West... [UANI President] Gary Samore, a top Obama advisor on Iran until February, said the Rouhani charm offensive should be viewed as an opening diplomatic gambit. Tehran will try to persuade the West to ease punitive economic sanctions, he said, simply because 'we're nice guys with a nice smile, and we're not Ahmadinejad.' The question is whether Rouhani and his aides realize they'll have to accept stiff limits on their nuclear program before Washington and its allies unravel the web of sanctions that have cut Iranian oil exports in half, battered the currency and created rampant inflation. Mark Wallace, chief executive of the group United Against Nuclear Iran, has been trying to organize a campaign to pressure the ONE UN New York hotel to cancel plans to put up Rouhani and his delegation. 'I hope the administration gets it right here, and waits to see a verifiable change in Iran's behavior before easing sanctions and diplomatic isolation,' he said." http://t.uani.com/16BjvQ8

AFP: "President Hassan Rowhani demanded Sunday that Western governments recognise Iran's right to enrich uranium in any nuclear deal, ahead of his departure for key talks at the United Nations... 'If they accept these rights, the Iranian people are a rational people, peaceful and friendly. We stand ready to cooperate and together we can settle all the region's problems and even global ones,' Rowhani said. His comments, at an annual military parade, came on the eve of his departure for the UN General Assembly in New York where he is scheduled to deliver a keynote address and meet French President Francois Hollande on the sidelines." http://t.uani.com/1aYLRbe

AFP: "Iran paraded 30 missiles with a nominal range of 2,000 kilometres (1,250 miles) Sunday, the first time it had displayed so many with the theoretical capacity to hit Israeli targets. Iran displayed 12 Sejil and 18 Ghadr missiles at the annual parade marking the anniversary of the outbreak of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war. The stated range of both missiles would put not only Israel but also US bases in the Gulf within reach. But in his speech at the parade, President Hassan Rowhani insisted the weaponry on show was for defensive purposes only... The Sejil was first tested in November 2008 and the Ghadr in September of the following year. Both are two-stage missiles that use solid fuel that allows them to be moved around and launched rapidly. The naval chief of the elite Revolutionary Guards was meanwhile quoted as saying that Iran has the capability to strike US warships in the Gulf. 'We have the necessary equipment to destroy American aircraft carries and warplanes in the Gulf,' the ISNA news agency quoted Admiral Ali Fadavi as saying." http://t.uani.com/17WLnRz
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Nuclear Program

AFP: "Iran on Monday finally takes control of its civilian nuclear reactor at Bushehr on the Gulf coast, a project begun 35 years ago by Germany, wracked by setbacks, and finished by Russia. The Islamic republic's atomic agency chief Ali Akbar Salehi confirmed on Sunday that Russia would hand over the 1,000-megawatt plant Monday. He also said he expected work to start soon on a second plant upon completion of talks with Moscow, saying: 'Negotiations are continuing and are well-advanced.' 'Work will start soon,' he added, without saying when... Moscow also agreed to provide its fuel for 10 years, with the supply deal committing Tehran to returning the spent fuel, amid Western concerns over its controversial uranium enrichment programme... Foreign experts say Tehran attaches great importance to Monday's handover, as it illustrates its self-sufficiency in harnessing civilian nuclear power, no longer dependent on outside help." http://t.uani.com/1ftEP0Q

AFP: "The United States warned on Friday that diplomatic overtures from Iranian President Hassan Rowhani, while welcome, are not enough for it to consider loosening sanctions aimed at Tehran's nuclear program. White House national security spokesman Ben Rhodes said President Barack Obama has no plans to meet Rowhani at the UN General Assembly next week, and would maintain pressure on Iran when he addresses the body... 'We've always made clear that we'll make judgments based on the actions of the Iranian government not just on their words,' he said. 'I note that there have been some positive developments in terms of prisoners and some of the comments made by President Rowhani, but those are clearly not sufficient in the eyes of the international community. We don't have a meeting scheduled with President Rowhani at the UN General Assembly.' Rhodes said the United States had made it clear 'that we do have a preference for resolving this issue diplomatically' but warned: 'We want to make clear that there's not an open-ended window for diplomacy.'" http://t.uani.com/1ahVrow

AFP: "The United States welcomed what it said was constructive rhetoric from Iran Friday, following a report that its leaders want a swift deal on their nuclear program to end crippling sanctions. But the White House stressed that despite signs of a rare opening between the two enemies, it needed to see concrete action to prove Iran was prepared to engage. 'We've seen a number of comments over the last several weeks from the Iranian regime,' White House spokesman Josh Earnest said on Air Force One, when asked about the reports. 'We welcome those comments as they do indicate a willingness to act constructively, to work constructively with the international community.' 'But the fact of the matter is, actions are what are going to be determinative here.' ... Earnest also claimed credit for the Obama administration's policy of imposing tough sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, which he said was responsible for the change of tone from Tehran. 'These sanctions have tightened around the Iranian regime, further isolated them from the international community, taken a significant toll on their economy and put pressure on them to come back to the bargaining table,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1aYMGkg

AP: "Iran and the United States are making plenty of friendly gestures, but real progress is going to be harder. A notable first meeting between the two nations' presidents suddenly seems possible, but without nuclear concessions the U.S. is unlikely to give Tehran what it wants: an easing of punishing sanctions that have resulted in soaring inflation and unemployment... 'I'm a bit skeptical that we'll see those kinds of concessions this early in the game,' said [UANI President] Gary Samore, who until earlier this year was Obama's top arms control adviser... Among Iran's primary concerns in negotiations is securing the removal of crippling international economic sanctions, while accepting as few constraints as possible on its nuclear program. The Obama administration, however, sees the sanctions as a key lever of power and is reluctant to ease the penalties. 'We believe that the most stringent sanctions regime we've ever put in place against the Iranian government is part of why we are here today with this opportunity for diplomacy,' State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf said Friday." http://t.uani.com/1bBfYIG

Reuters: "The diplomatic thaw between the West and Iran could quickly chill again if the two sides are unable to master the many moving parts of Tehran's disputed nuclear program under the weight of more than three decades of distrust. The dispute is not only about the West stopping Iran building a bomb, but also about preventing it expanding its capabilities to the point where it could make a dash for nuclear weapons - known as 'breakout' - if it chose to. Many different conditions need to be met even for an interim agreement to slow Iran's nuclear program and stop it reaching a point - expected by some nuclear experts by the middle of next year - when the United States and Israel could be drawn into military action to prevent it advancing further. 'The debate is more about breakout,' said Shashank Joshi at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London... 'In as much as they have the ability to indigenously develop a nuclear bomb, they already have a nuclear-weapons capability,' said Joshi. 'Now the issue that is looming is enrichment capacity. By the middle of next year, capacity will be so high that some fear that it would be at that dangerous level of undetectable breakout.'" http://t.uani.com/1fb9y5c

Reuters: "Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard has warned of the dangers of dealing with U.S. officials, ahead of expected diplomatic contacts, underlining the internal challenges President Hassan Rouhani could face to improve ties with the West... 'Historical experiences make it necessary for the diplomatic apparatus of our country to carefully and skeptically monitor the behavior of White House officials so that the righteous demands of our nation are recognized and respected by those who favor interaction,' an IRGC statement said. It added the IRGC would support initiatives that were in line with national interests and strategies set forth by Iran's theocratic leader and highest authority, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei." http://t.uani.com/18l530D 

Sanctions

AP: "Iran's president used his final moments before leaving for New York on Monday to urge Western leaders to heed his appeals for greater dialogue and take steps to ease painful economic sanctions as a path to 'reach joint interests.' Hasan Rouhani hopes to use the annual U.N. General Assembly gathering to win promises to restart stalled talks over Tehran's nuclear program. Rouhani also is appealing to the U.S. and allies to roll back sanctions to move ahead the negotiations. The official IRNA news agency quoted Rouhani as saying Monday the West should choose the 'path of interaction, talks and leniency, so we can reach joint interests.' He also called sanctions 'unacceptable and illegal' and a roadblock to progress on settling the nuclear impasse." http://t.uani.com/18l4F2b

Reuters: "Britain could be close to agreeing a deal to ease sanctions that have stopped gas production from the North Sea's Rhum field, jointly owned by BP and the National Iranian Oil Co., the Mail on Sunday newspaper said. Production from the field, which once supplied 5 percent of Britain's gas output, has been suspended since 2010 as a result of international sanctions against Iran. But with signs of a thaw in relations between Iran and the West, the government now hopes to win agreement from the European Union and the United States for a sanctions waiver in the near future, the newspaper said, citing people close to the talks. One stumbling block to a deal, however, could be concerns from companies involved in financing and servicing the field that any exemption for the producers would not fully protect them from legal action, it added." http://t.uani.com/1eBNuiW 

UN General Assembly

Reuters: "President Hassan Rouhani said on Monday he would use his visit to the United Nations this week to present the 'true face of Iran' and to pursue talks and cooperation with the West to end Iran's nuclear dispute. A moderate conservative elected in June, Rouhani was speaking shortly before a five-day trip Western powers hope will shed light on a nuclear program they fear could yield nuclear arms. Iran has said it is pursuing peaceful ends, but recent, sometimes rancorous talks have served only to deepen suspicion. 'Unfortunately in recent years the face of Iran, a great and civilized nation, has been presented in another way,' Rouhani said, according to comments published on his official website. 'I and my colleagues will take the opportunity to present the true face of Iran as a cultured and peace-loving country,' Rouhani did not make clear who he blames for any distortion of Iran's image. But the comments suggest he is intent on distancing himself from the controversial, outspoken approach to the West adopted by predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad." http://t.uani.com/18P2BTV

NYT: "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, stepping up his effort to blunt a diplomatic offensive by Iran, plans to warn the United Nations next week that a nuclear deal with the Iranian government could be a trap similar to one set by North Korea eight years ago, according to an Israeli official involved in drafting the speech. Mr. Netanyahu is scheduled to address the General Assembly next Tuesday, a week after President Obama and Iran's new president, Hassan Rouhani, are to speak at the United Nations. But the Israeli government, clearly rattled by the sudden talk of a diplomatic opening, offered a preview Sunday of Mr. Netanyahu's hard-edged message, in which he will set the terms for what would be acceptable to Israel in any agreement concerning Iran's nuclear ambitions. 'A bad agreement is worse than no agreement at all,' the Israeli official said, reading a statement from the prime minister's office that he said reflected Mr. Netanyahu's remarks." http://t.uani.com/15P21TT

Human Rights

IHR: "Eight prisoners were hanged in the prison of Yazd (central Iran) on Thursday September 19, and four other prisoners were hanged in the prison of Qazvin (west of Tehran) on Saturday September 21, reported the Iranian state media. In addition, at least five prisoners were hanged in the prison of Zahedan (southeastern Iran) yesterday September 21, according to the website of 'Human Rights and Democracy Activists in Iran' (HRDAI)." http://t.uani.com/15P2HZp

IHR: "According to the local media in Iran, a juvenile offender was executed in Kazeroun (southern Iran) last week. According to the local newspaper 'Kazeroun-e-ma' an 18 year old boy who was convicted of committing a murder when he was 14, was executed in Kazeroun last week. The report didn't identify the boy by name. According to reports from Iran another juvenile offender with the name 'Mohammad (Maher) Ayashi' is scheduled to be executed in the Karoun Prison of Ahwaz (southwestern Iran) tomorrow morning. The boy who is in his twenties now, is convicted of a murder under a street fight when he was 17 year old." http://t.uani.com/16U29Bs

Syria Conflict

AFP: "Iranian President Hassan Rowhani warned the West on Sunday that it will 'regret' any military intervention in Syria, and called for dialogue to stop the war in its ally. 'Do not seek a new war in the region because you will regret it,' Rowhani said in a remarks at a military parade in Tehran addressed to Western governments who have called for military strikes on Syria. 'War cannot be extinguished by war. It must be extinguished by politics and dialogue,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1bBahue

Reuters: "French President Francois Hollande hopes to convince Iran to pursue a political solution to the civil war in Syria when he meets his Iranian counterpart next week, aides said on Friday. Hollande and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who took office last month, are due to meet on Tuesday on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York. Iran is one of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's main allies in the conflict, which has killed well over 100,000 and destabilised the region." http://t.uani.com/1aYMQYQ

Domestic Affairs

WSJ: "Weddings and funerals in the Middle East are often an opportunity to gauge someone's social status and influence. In Iran last week, funeral politics and Iran's regional alliances were on full display at the memorial service for the mother of a top commander in the elite Revolutionary Guards Corps. Gen. Qasim Solaimani is the commander-in-chief of the Quds Forces, the external branch of the Guards responsible for operations outside Iran's borders. The Quds Forces are important players in places like Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. When Mr. Solaimani's mother died last week, he held a funeral service at a religious center in the commanding headquarters of the Guards in Tehran. Iranian media carried detailed reports and pictures of the service boasting of Mr. Solaimani's popularity and reach. Iranian officials from every political faction-from conservatives to reformists-flocked to pay their condolences. The mayor of Tehran, Mohamad Baqir Qalibaf, a former military man and a presidential candidate, stood next to Mr. Solaimani greeting guests." http://t.uani.com/16U2hAM

Foreign Affairs

NYT: "As the Obama administration embarks on a highly visible diplomatic overture to Iran, White House officials are engaged in a quieter, behind-the-scenes effort to reassure Israel that they will not fall for the charms of Iran's new president by prematurely easing pressure on his government to curb its nuclear program. In private conversations with Israeli officials and a few public statements, administration officials have emphasized that they remain skeptical of Iran's intentions on the nuclear program, and that they will judge Iran by its actions, not by the conciliatory words of its newly elected president, Hassan Rouhani." http://t.uani.com/15P1UYh

Opinion & Analysis

WSJ Editorial: "The ruling clerics in Tehran haven't survived in power for 34 years without cunning. Fresh from their ally Bashar Assad's diplomatic victory in Damascus, they now see an opening to liberate themselves from Western pressure too. They're hoping an eager President Obama will ease sanctions in return for another promise of WMD disarmament. That's the prudent way to read Iran's recent interest in Mr. Obama's entreaties after five years of rude dismissals. No doubt the mullahs are feeling international economic pressure, especially from financial sanctions through the world banking system. But they have shown for years that they don't mind imposing pain on their own people. New President Hassan Rouhani sounds less strident notes than his predecessor, but the regime has rolled out other presidents who turned out either to have no power or to be false fronts to beguile the West. The real power, as ever, resides with the clerics and especially Ayatollah Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard Corps. Mr. Rouhani was their nuclear envoy in the mid-2000s when Iran accelerated its nuclear-weapons program. It's doubtful they've had a come-to-Allah moment on nukes. The likely reason they've finally decided to answer Mr. Obama's overtures is because they see an America in retreat and eager for a nuclear deal. In Syria, they saw Mr. Obama leap at Russia's diplomatic offer rather than follow through on his threat of a U.S. military strike if Assad used chemical weapons. Assad is now safe from Western intervention and he can dissemble and delay on disarming his chemical stockpiles. The mullahs can also see how eager Mr. Obama is for a second-term deal with Iran that validates his campaign claim that 'the tide of war is receding.' The President has never taken no for an answer from Tehran. Despite being rebuffed for five years, he sent another entreaty after Mr. Rouhani's election in June... Iran's diplomatic goals are obvious: Break its international isolation and lift the sanctions in exchange for a promise not to build a nuclear weapon even as it retains its ability to build one at a moment's notice. The Rouhani aide said last week that Tehran was particularly eager to lift the ban on Iranian money transfers through the Swift interbank system, and it will press for that as an initial concession before it dismantles a single nuclear centrifuge. The danger for world order is that Iran is already close to a nuclear breakout capacity when it will be able to finish a device in a matter of weeks, without technically testing or possessing a bomb. The mullahs could also easily pull the North Korean trick of dismantling one facility while secretly running another one. They have systematically lied about their nuclear program for years. All of which bodes ill for any genuine nuclear breakthrough. If true global security is Mr. Obama's goal, then at a bare minimum any deal would have to halt Iran's enrichment of uranium, remove the already enriched uranium from the country, close all nuclear sites and provide for robust monitoring anytime and anywhere." http://t.uani.com/1fbvpJN

NYPost Editorial: "When it comes to what a nuclear-armed Iran would mean, we take a back seat to no one in our conviction that Tehran must not be allowed to acquire this capability. But the focus on Iran's future nukes - and new signs that it might be willing to give them up - shouldn't blind us to the outrageous way the regime has been kidnapping and jailing US citizens with near impunity. Take the case of Amir Hekmati, a decorated former Marine who's been held by Iran for more than two years on what looks to be bogus charges. At great risk to himself, Hekmati succeeded in getting a letter he wrote to Secretary of State John Kerry smuggled out of prison. In the letter, Hekmati says a confession he gave in 2011 was made under duress and that he's been subjected to threats and 'miserable' conditions, including 'prolonged periods of solitary confinement.' He says Iran is holding him in the hopes of a prisoner exchange. 'For over two years I have been held on false charges based solely on confessions obtained by force, threats, miserable prison conditions, and prolonged periods of solitary confinement,' Hekmati writes. 'This is part of a propaganda and hostage-taking effort by Iranian intelligence to secure the release of Iranians abroad being held on security-related charges.' A true hero, Hekmati urges Washington not to buckle to Iran's 'ridiculous' demand for a prisoner swap, lest it set a precedent. He says despite his suffering and his family's, he'll accept nothing less than his 'unconditional release.' Hekmati is not the first American to be held by the thuggish regime. In the past few years alone, it's detained numerous Americans on trumped-up charges... The point is, how can we take seriously Iran's new hints that it's ready to make a good-faith deal on nukes even as it continues to hold some of these Americans? Likewise, how can we expect it to take seriously our threats about the consequences of acquiring nukes when it's paid no price for kidnapping, jailing and killing of our fellow citizens?" http://t.uani.com/1ftUMEo

Dexter Filkins in The New Yorker: "Kneeling in the second row on the mosque's carpeted floor was Major General Qassem Suleimani, the Quds Force's leader: a small man of fifty-six, with silver hair, a close-cropped beard, and a look of intense self-containment. It was Suleimani who had sent Shateri, an old and trusted friend, to his death. As Revolutionary Guard commanders, he and Shateri belonged to a small fraternity formed during the Sacred Defense, the name given to the Iran-Iraq War, which lasted from 1980 to 1988 and left as many as a million people dead. It was a catastrophic fight, but for Iran it was the beginning of a three-decade project to build a Shiite sphere of influence, stretching across Iraq and Syria to the Mediterranean. Along with its allies in Syria and Lebanon, Iran forms an Axis of Resistance, arrayed against the region's dominant Sunni powers and the West. In Syria, the project hung in the balance, and Suleimani was mounting a desperate fight, even if the price of victory was a sectarian conflict that engulfed the region for years. Suleimani took command of the Quds Force fifteen years ago, and in that time he has sought to reshape the Middle East in Iran's favor, working as a power broker and as a military force: assassinating rivals, arming allies, and, for most of a decade, directing a network of militant groups that killed hundreds of Americans in Iraq. The U.S. Department of the Treasury has sanctioned Suleimani for his role in supporting the Assad regime, and for abetting terrorism. And yet he has remained mostly invisible to the outside world, even as he runs agents and directs operations. 'Suleimani is the single most powerful operative in the Middle East today,' John Maguire, a former C.I.A. officer in Iraq, told me, 'and no one's ever heard of him.' When Suleimani appears in public-often to speak at veterans' events or to meet with Khamenei-he carries himself inconspicuously and rarely raises his voice, exhibiting a trait that Arabs call khilib, or understated charisma. "He is so short, but he has this presence,' a former senior Iraqi official told me. 'There will be ten people in a room, and when Suleimani walks in he doesn't come and sit with you. He sits over there on the other side of room, by himself, in a very quiet way. Doesn't speak, doesn't comment, just sits and listens. And so of course everyone is thinking only about him.'" http://t.uani.com/16lLN7f

Con Coughlin in The Daily Telegraph: "As charm offensives go, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's carefully orchestrated effort to convince sceptical Western leaders that his country has no intention of posing a threat to world peace is proving to be a roaring success. Having become a regular pen pal of President Obama, Mr Rouhani's declaration on American television this week that Iran would 'never' develop nuclear weapons has raised expectations that three decades of hostility between Washington and Tehran could be drawing to a close. As if to reinforce the message that a new spirit of reconciliation has taken root in Iran, Mr Rouhani ordered the release of several prominent political prisoners who had been detained without charge for upsetting the ayatollahs. Consequently, the delegation accompanying Iran's newly elected president to next week's meeting of the UN general assembly in New York can expect a far warmer welcome than was generally meted out to his cantankerous predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. While Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif enjoys a series of bilateral talks with his European counterparts - including a session scheduled with William Hague - there is much speculation that Mr Rouhani might even get some face time with the American president himself during his stay, the first such meeting between US and Iranian leaders since the 1979 Islamic revolution. But before we succumb to the new mood of 'Rouhanimania' sweeping America, it would be sensible to reflect on why Iran has decided to make these particular overtures at this particular time. For a start, it can surely be no coincidence that they come in the immediate aftermath of Mr Obama's less-than-convincing performance during the recent Syrian gas-attack crisis." http://t.uani.com/1dDCHlw

Jeffrey Goldberg in Bloomberg: "There is one main reason why Iran is making conciliatory noises about its relationship with the U.S. and about the future of its nuclear program, and there is one main reason why Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian dictator, is signaling his intention to give up his stockpiles of chemical weapons. The reason: President Barack Obama's toughness. Yes, I know. Toughness isn't a quality lately ascribed to the president. But hear me out. Obama has crippled the Iranian economy by organizing some of the harshest sanctions imaginable, and he has stated repeatedly that he won't allow the Iranian leadership to acquire a nuclear weapon. The constant displays of American military might in the waters off of Iran these past four years, coupled with clear statements that the U.S. would use force to thwart the regime's plans, have also impressed Iranian leaders. Many Americans doubt Obama's willingness to use force against Iran, and many of Iran's Middle Eastern foes do, too. But the Iranian leadership, which wants to have a nuclear capability despite its fantastical protestations to the contrary, is beginning to understand the price it is paying for its atomic desires." http://t.uani.com/14zzkt5

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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