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Top Stories
Bloomberg:
"Iran and world powers may strike an accord allowing the Islamic
republic to continue enriching uranium up to 5 percent purity, according
to Russia's chief negotiator at the talks. 'In the absence of trust
between the two sides, we have to concentrate on what causes the most
concern,' Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said today in a phone
interview in Moscow. 'Among the six powers, enrichment above 5 percent
has always been a focus because the Iranian nuclear program is continuing
to expand.' Iran is seeking an end to European Union and U.S. sanctions,
Ryabkov said. 'If progress continues at the talks, there's no reason why
we can't agree on the lifting of all unilateral sanctions. The exact
timetable is a matter for discussion,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1a4AAIN
AP:
"Iran nuclear talks ended last week with enthusiastic pronouncements
of progress from negotiators. Tehran's willingness to engage is a big
step, but diplomats familiar with the meeting also say significant gaps
remain between what the Iranians offered and what the six negotiating
powers seek in order to reduce fears Iran wants to build nuclear weapons.
Details of the Iranian offer remain confidential, but two diplomats
agreed to give The Associated Press some insight. They demanded anonymity
because they are under orders not to discuss the issue. The diplomats
said the chief advance achieved at Geneva was not detailed Iranian
concessions, but Tehran's apparent willingness to engage the six powers
on their concerns - a departure from previous Iranian refusal to even
discuss most of the other side's demands. Differences remain over the
size and output of Iran's enrichment program, which can create both
reactor fuel and weapons-grade material suitable for a nuclear bomb...
Araghchi predicted Monday the nuclear talks could take as long as a year
in step-by-step measures with the first milestone coming in three to six
months and negotiations concluding within the year. Such as a timetable,
however, could bring pressure on Washington from Israel and others that
fear Iran could be seeking to buy time while making nuclear
advances." http://t.uani.com/1ib9jmS
AFP:
"The head of Russia's air force, General Viktor Bondarev, met his
Iranian counterparts in Tehran to discuss boosting military cooperation
between the countries, local media reported Monday. Talks centred on
'electronic listening systems, radar and missiles,' Brigadier General
Farzad Esmaili, head of Khatam-ol-Anbia Air Defence Base, said in
comments quoted by daily Sharq. Esmaili also said that Bondarev had
discussed the delivery of Russian-built S-300 ballistic missiles with
Iranian air force chiefs. Russia signed a contract in 2007 to deliver
five of the advanced ground-to-air missiles -- which can take out aircraft
or guided missiles -- to Iran at a cost of $800 million (590 million
euros). In 2010, then-president Dmitry Medvedev cancelled the contract
because of UN sanctions and strong US and Israeli pressure over concerns
for Tehran's disputed nuclear ambition. Iran lodged a $4 billion lawsuit
at an international court in Geneva against Russia. But Esmaili said 'we
can get S-300 missiles or other similar systems when the disputes are
resolved,' Sharq reported. Bondarev also met Brigadier General Amir Ali
Hajizadeh, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards' air division.
Hajizadeh offered him a 'Yasseer' drone, a copy of US ScanEagle unmanned
aircraft, as a gift... It resembles the US ScanEagle, a surveillance
drone that Iran claimed to have captured in late 2012." http://t.uani.com/1aDRVTP
 Nuclear
Program
CSM: "Hardliners in Iran are lashing
out at Iran's nuclear negotiating team, arguing that if the US is happy
about the outcome of talks in Geneva last week, then Iran must have given
away too many concessions. Secrecy on the content of talks, agreed to by
both sides, is also being used as an argument to raise suspicions and
fuel that criticism... Hard-line editors and politicians in Iran focused
on the hints of progress, firing off complaints that Mr. Zarif and his
team must be secretly peddling a bad deal for Iran... Many hardliners -
whose voices have been muted but growing since the election - see the new
president's outreach as too-compromising in its eagerness to strike a
nuclear deal and ease sanctions. Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor of the
hard-line Kayhan newspaper - an official representative of Iran's Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - titled his analysis, 'Why is the enemy
satisfied?'" http://t.uani.com/GZUM1V
Sanctions
Reuters:
"Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday will seek to dim the optimism
after nuclear talks with Iran, cautioning that Tehran is strengthening
its strategic regional position by calling the shots in Syria as
President Bashar al-Assad's puppet master. In talks with U.S. Secretary
of State John Kerry in Rome on Wednesday, Netanyahu is expected to argue
against easing Western sanctions on Iran, which hinted at recent Geneva
talks it was willing to scale back its nuclear program... The right-wing
prime minister will gauge just how far the United States is ready to
consider any let up on sanctions imposed on Iran at the meeting with
Kerry. Reinforcing his warning of the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran,
Netanyahu has added another twist to his argument, noting that Iran is
behind Assad and supplies Shi'ite Muslim fighters for the civil war
against Sunni rebels. Saudi Arabia, another key U.S. ally in the Middle
East, is also deeply worried about any sign of a deal between Washington
and the kingdom's arch-rival, Iran. The double-pronged message is part of
Netanyahu's campaign to prevent any easing of sanctions until it actually
dismantles atomic work that Israel is convinced aims to produce nuclear
arms. Iran says it is enriching uranium for peaceful purposes." http://t.uani.com/17dTFrM
Human Rights
AFP:
"A convicted Iranian drug trafficker who survived a botched hanging
has fallen into a coma, the IRNA news agency reported on Monday. 'His
level of consciousness is around six percent and the possibility of brain
death will increase if the situation does not improve,' IRNA quoted what
it called an informed source as saying. 'The doctors cannot perform any
surgery or other treatment while he is in a coma,' said the source. The
prisoner, identified only as Alireza M., 37, was pronounced dead earlier
this month by the attending doctor after hanging for 12 minutes from a
noose suspended from a crane at a jail in northeastern Iran. But the next
day, staff at the mortuary in the city of Bojnourd where his shrouded
body was taken discovered he was still breathing. The incident led to a
heated debate between jurists, with some saying he should be hanged again
and others arguing he had faced his punishment and should be
spared." http://t.uani.com/16pKZxO
Domestic
Politics
FT:
"Iran's cash-strapped government is looking to slash monthly handouts
given to almost all Iranians in a move that could provoke popular anger
as the country struggles with high inflation and unemployment. When the
government of Hassan Rouhani, the president, took office in August he
promised to ease economic hardship. But a priority, officials say, is to
reduce the deficit - unofficially estimated to be as high as $28bn -
caused by the policies of the previous government and international
sanctions over the nuclear programme. To do this, officials are
rethinking the payment mechanism by which 76m Iranians have been
receiving cash each month over the past three years to help with the cost
of energy and basic commodities. Valiollah Seif, Iran's central bank
governor, said at the weekend that the parliament and the government
agreed to reform the payment scheme by the end of the current Iranian
year (March 20, 2014)... Officials have raised the possibility of
excluding better off Iranians - possibly about one-third of the
population - from the scheme, but this runs the risk of stoking social
unrest." http://t.uani.com/1h519ik
WashPost:
"Recent moves by the United States to engage the new Iranian
government headed by a moderate president has triggered a public debate
in the Islamic republic over its national interests, forcing hard-line
conservatives to defend Tehran's 34-year-old enmity with Washington...
Rouhani's advisers, however, are taking no definitive stance on relations
with the United States. 'There are those in this country who consider any
negotiation as disloyalty, and there are some who believe that only
direct relations with the U.S. will serve the country. The government has
no connection to either group,' Hesamoddin Ashna, Rouhani's cultural
adviser, said Thursday on a popular political talk show. But clerics, lawmakers,
journalists and academics are being more blunt, exposing a schism that
may prove difficult to bridge... With the Nov. 4 anniversary of the
takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran approaching, a text message is
circulating that reads, 'Aban 13 is coming; don't forget to shout Death
to America,' referring to the date on the Iranian calendar when students
stormed the embassy and took 52 Americans hostage in 1979." http://t.uani.com/17Gpl3l
Al-Monitor:
"Traditional conservative politician Ali Motahhari, who is known for
being particularly outspoken in Iran, talked about the possible
performance of Reformists in future parliamentary elections, the
controversy over keeping the nuclear talks confidential and the positive
role hard-liners can play in the negotiations. 'If the elections are
completely free and the Reformist candidates are not disapproved [by the
Guardian Council] and participation is high, normally the Reformists
win,' said Motahhari to the Islamic Consultive Assembly News Agency,
believing that the Guardian Council will not now allow the conservatives
to lose in future political elections. He continued, 'Conservatives are
victorious normally under conditions in which effective Reformist
candidates are disapproved, and consequently, the participation of the
people is low. Under these conditions, conservatives win such political
competitions.'" http://t.uani.com/1bSGCJZ
AFP:
"Iran's Culture Minister Ali Janati said Monday his department will
review a ban imposed on certain books which censors have barred from
publication, the official IRNA news agency reported. 'Those books
subjected to censorship or denied permission to be published in the past
will be reviewed again and new decisions will be made,' IRNA quoted
Janati as saying. All publications in Iran must be approved by the
ministry of culture and Islamic guidance to ensure they comply with the
Islamic republic's strict code of morality... Publishers complained of
tighter censorship during the 2005-2013 mandate of hardline former
president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad." http://t.uani.com/Hftcxl
Opinion
& Analysis
Uri Sadot in FP: "As American and
Iranian diplomats attempt to reach a rapprochement that would end the
historical enmity between their two governments, Israel is weary of being
sidelined by its most important ally. While the U.S. incentive for
diplomacy is great, it could place Washington in a short-term conflict of
interests with Israel, which views Iran as an existential threat. With
the renewed negotiations in place, will Israel dare strike a Middle
Eastern nation in defiance of its closest allies? It seems unlikely, but
32 years ago, the answer was yes. On June 7, 1981, Israel launched
Operation Opera. A squadron of fighter planes flew almost 1,000 miles
over Saudi and Iraqi territory to bomb a French-built plutonium reactor
on the outskirts of Baghdad, which Israeli leaders feared would be used
by Saddam Hussein to build atomic bombs. The operation was successful,
but the international reaction was severe. On the morning following the attack,
the United States condemned Israel, suggesting it had violated U.S. law
by using American-made military equipment in its assault. State
Department spokesman Dean Fischer reiterated the American position that
the reactor did not pose a potential security threat, and White House
press secretary Larry Speakes added that President Ronald Reagan had
personally approved the condemnation. Israel didn't hesitate back then to
bomb what it viewed as a threatening nuclear program, even at the risk of
provoking a conflict with the United States -- and it will likely not
hesitate today. As the strike against Iraq shows, Israeli policymakers
see the acquisition of nuclear weapons by a hostile regime as an
existential threat, and they will risk a breach with Israel's closest
allies to prevent it... It was a close call for Israel, which in those
years was even more reliant on America than it is today. The Jewish state
was also grappling with a host of other issues: It was in the fragile
final stages of establishing its peace treaty with Egypt, was dealing
with tensions on its border with Syria that would erupt into war in
Lebanon the following year, and was suffering from triple-digit
inflation. But despite the myriad risks, the Israeli cabinet decided to
attack. Why? Above all, because its leaders truly believed that the
nuclear program was an imminent existential threat... Nor was the attack
on the Iraqi nuclear facility an isolated event. In 2007, Israel again
decided to strike a nuclear reactor in defiance of its strongest ally. In
the preceding year, U.S. and Israeli intelligence assets had discovered a
covert Syrian plutonium reactor being built with North Korean assistance.
For long months after its detection, Israel and the United States had
intimately cooperated on how to handle its removal. It was only when
President George W. Bush told Prime Minister Ehud Olmert that the United
States had decided to take the matter to the United Nations, rather than
strike itself -- or agree to let Israel strike -- that Jerusalem decided
to act, even against an explicit American objection. In both the Syrian
and Iraqi cases, the Israeli government exhausted all other options
before resorting to a military strike. Begin launched a sabotage campaign
against Iraq's nuclear program in 1979 after his cabinet decided that
diplomacy had run its course. Iraqi scientists were assassinated, French
technicians were threatened, and containers holding key parts of the
reactor were blown up on their way to Iraq. But in January 1981, an internal
intelligence committee ruled that sabotage was no longer 'sufficient in
delaying the program,' which lead to the ultimate decision to strike. In
2007, Olmert negotiated with the Americans in the hope that they would do
the dirty work for him, and he only directed his military to strike after
Bush turned him down. Nothing indicates that Netanyahu's thinking is any
more dovish than that of Begin or Olmert... The stakes for Israel today
are just as high as they were in 1981, and the worldview of its top policymakers
remains largely the same as it was then. It is unlikely that the
negotiations with Iran will stop Netanyahu from ordering a strike if he
concludes diplomacy has failed in providing security. To the contrary, if
there is one likely scenario that would push Israel to act, it would be
the prospect of an imminent deal with Iran that would isolate Israel
while not addressing the threat it sees emanating from Tehran." http://t.uani.com/1cbxkwJ
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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