Top Stories
Reuters:
"Iran has not halted its most sensitive uranium enrichment work, a
senior Iranian parliamentarian said, contradicting a statement by another
lawmaker last week. Diplomats accredited to the U.N. nuclear watchdog
said on Friday they had no information to substantiate the report that
Tehran had halted enrichment of uranium to 20 percent. Israel also
dismissed the original report as 'irrelevant'. Any halt of enrichment
would be a big surprise, as Western experts believe Iran would want to
use such activity as a bargaining chip to win relief from international
sanctions. An end to Iran's higher-grade enrichment of uranium is a main
demand of world powers negotiating with Tehran over its disputed nuclear
work. Enriching uranium to 20 percent is sensitive as it is a relatively
short technical step to increase that to the 90 percent needed for making
a nuclear weapon. 'Enrichment to 20 percent is continuing,' state news
agency IRNA quoted Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of parliament's national
security and foreign policy committee, as saying on Saturday." http://t.uani.com/16E5WVN
WSJ:
"The White House is pressing Congress to hold back on new sanctions
against Iran, pitting the administration's hopes for a re-energized
diplomatic engagement against the growing concern of some lawmakers and
foreign allies. The Obama administration is arguing that diplomatic
efforts need more time to contain Tehran's nuclear program. But a number
of Republican and Democratic lawmakers want to bring a new sanctions bill
targeting Iran's oil exports and finances to a Senate vote by the end of
next week. A similar bill cleared the House of Representatives in July
and is waiting to be reconciled with the Senate's... The National
Security Council's point man on Iran, Philip Gordon, hosted Senate
staffers at the White House on Thursday, and argued that clamping new
sanctions on Iran at this stage could prove counterproductive, according
to these staffers. A new round of negotiations between global powers and
the Iranian government of President Hasan Rouhani is scheduled for Nov.
7-8 in Geneva." http://t.uani.com/1aNXEGQ
AFP:
"Iranian negotiators hold this week a series of meetings in Vienna
meant to lay the groundwork for substantial progress in talks with world
powers in Geneva on November 7-8. On Monday UN atomic watchdog head
Yukiya Amano will meet Abbass Araqchi, deputy foreign minister and
Tehran's chief nuclear negotiator in Iran's fresh diplomatic push under
new President Hassan Rouhani. The same day, the International Atomic Energy
Agency will hold separate talks with Iranian officials on allegations
that prior to 2003, and possibly since, Tehran carried out nuclear
weapons research. Then on Wednesday and Thursday, a seven-member expert
Iranian team will meet with counterparts from the six powers -- the
United States, Britain, France, China, Russia and Germany -- to prepare
the groundwork for the Geneva gathering. All the meetings are behind
closed doors. Only the IAEA talks are scheduled to be followed by a news
conference, with new chief inspector Tero Varjoranta due to brief
reporters around 1700 GMT... 'There is no way that Iran will be able to
get to that endpoint without addressing' the IAEA's claims, Mark Hibbs,
analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told AFP. But
he said Iran would likely wait for a wider deal with the P5+1 before
actually granting to the IAEA access to the relevant sites, documents and
personnel." http://t.uani.com/1aka9yR
 Nuclear
Program
Global
Security Newswire: "Atomic-energy plans
unveiled this week by a top Iranian nuclear official could cast doubt on
Tehran's readiness to negotiate limits on fuel-production technologies
that also could generate bomb material, Western issue experts told Global
Security Newswire... On Tuesday, Iran's atomic energy organization
indicated the country might soon begin producing its own power-plant
fuel. This move has prompted some analysts to question whether the
country is willing to reduce its quantity of enrichment centrifuges, a
move that could prove crucial to defusing the international standoff...
Iran plans in three months to start manufacturing 'uranium dioxide' to
'feed' its single nuclear power plant, a state media report quoted agency
head Ali Akbar Salehi as saying. The Iranian news article appears to
refer to the production of uranium fuel rods, a process in which uranium
dioxide is an 'intermediate product,' Henderson said in a brief telephone
interview. 'The Russians would probably be very happy to continue
supplying the fuel, but the Iranians are essentially signaling that [if]
they want to fuel this reactor themselves, they need to retain a very
large enrichment capacity,' the analyst said... Iran would need between
60,000 and 100,000 of its most-basic centrifuge model -- more than three
times the number it now possesses -- to fully take over fuel production
for its nuclear plant at Bushehr, said David Albright, head of the
Institute for Science and International Security in Washington. That
quantity might be enough to run the Bushehr reactor, but Salehi on
Thursday reaffirmed plans to build more atomic energy sites that would
require additional fuel. Speaking to GSN by telephone, Albright said Iran
would have to cap its enrichment program at no more than 10,000 'IR-1' machines
to provide a six-month buffer period adequate for an international
response if the nation tried to produce nuclear-weapon fuel." http://t.uani.com/1cmtyRl
AFP:
"A prominent Iranian lawmaker said on Sunday Iran would never agree
to shut down its Fordo underground nuclear enrichment facility as
demanded by world powers, Mehr news agency reported. 'It is possible that
they set some conditions such as shutting down Fordo, which definitely
will not happen,' Mehr quoted Alaeddin Boroujerdi, head of the parliament's
foreign policy committee, as saying. Fordo, with nearly 3,000 centrifuges
and dug deep into a mountain near the holy city of Qom, some 150
kilometres (90 miles) south of Tehran, is at the heart of international
concerns over Iran's nuclear drive. The site, whose existence was
revealed in 2009, began in late 2011 to enrich uranium to purities of 20
percent, a few technical steps away from the 90-percent level needed for
a nuclear weapon." http://t.uani.com/18tdfds
Free Beacon:
"Iran plans to build many new nuclear plants with atomic reactors
along its coastlines with the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea, Iran's top
nuclear official announced on Thursday... Iranian leaders, however, have
remained defiant in the face of talks, announcing on Thursday that Tehran
will build 'enough atomic reactors to generate a total of 20,000
megawatts of electricity by 2020,' according to the country's state-run
Fars News Agency... At least 34 sites have already been designated for
future nuclear power plants, according to Fars. Additionally, Salehi
announced just two days after nuclear negotiations ended that Russia
would help Iran build new nuclear power plants across the country,
according to Persian language press reports... Around 13,000 people are
involved in Iran's nuclear sector, according to Salehi, who also revealed
that Russia could soon begin construction on a second nuclear power plant
in Iran." http://t.uani.com/16FxFjL
CNN:
"Iran may need only a month to produce enough weapons-grade uranium
for a nuclear bomb, a U.S.-based anti-proliferation group says in a new
assessment of Tehran's enrichment program. But that is only if the
country were able to take the most extreme and direct enrichment path,
says the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington.
Under other scenarios, it would take significantly longer for Tehran to
produce the material -- more than 11 months in one estimate. And that
would still not give Iran a nuclear bomb. Turning enriched uranium into a
usable weapon would take a great deal more time, the report suggests...
According to ISIS, the quickest route to a usable amount of weapons-grade
uranium in the current circumstances could take Iran 'as little as
approximately 1.0--1.6 months.' It said it updated its estimates based on
the view that Iran has increased the number of centrifuges at its Fordow
and Natanz plants and has begun installing a more advanced centrifuge
model at Natanz. 'The shortening breakout times have implications for any
negotiation with Iran,' the report says. 'An essential finding is that
they are currently too short and shortening further, based on the current
trend of centrifuge deployments.'" http://t.uani.com/Hlbppa
LAT:
"As the U.S. presses for a deal to limit Iran's nuclear program, it
is getting help from an unlikely ally: Russia... Despite Moscow's good
relations with Tehran and its fervent dislike of international sanctions
as a policy tool, it has provided crucial support to the effort to curb
Iran's nuclear ambitions. Russia worries that failure to strike a deal
would lead to military action against Iran, which would destabilize a
vast stretch of territory along the southern Russia frontier and roil the
markets for its oil and natural gas, on which Russia's economy depends.
'There are tactical differences,' said Gary Samore, a former member of
Obama's inner circle of Iran advisors, who is now research director at
the Belfer Center at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. 'But at the
end of the day, the United States and Russia have common interests.' ...
On the nuclear talks, former Obama advisor Samore said he expected the
Russians to again push both sides hard to make a deal, and that they will
be flexible on the outcome. The Russians 'don't care about the details of
an agreement,' he said. 'They just want an agreement.'" http://t.uani.com/19LTGkk
Reuters:
"Experts from Iran and six world powers will meet in Vienna on
October 30-31 to prepare the next round of high-level talks on the
contested Iranian nuclear program with hopes of a breakthrough rising
thanks to a diplomatic opening from Tehran. Western diplomats say the
meeting, scheduled to take place a week before the next round of
negotiations in Geneva in November, could be instrumental in defining the
contours of any preliminary agreement on Iran's uranium enrichment
campaign... 'I can confirm the technical meeting on October 30 and 31 in
Vienna to prepare the talks ... in Geneva,' said Maja Kocijancic, a
spokeswoman for European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who
oversees diplomacy with Iran on behalf of the six states. 'Experts from
the EU and the six will participate.'" http://t.uani.com/1g61QZD
LAT:
"America's chief negotiator with Iran promised in a broadcast
intended for Iranians that she will be a 'fair, balanced' participant in
talks over Tehran's nuclear program, despite her comment this month that
'deception is part of the DNA' among Iranians. Facing criticism from
hard-line news media and some lawmakers in Iran, Undersecretary of State
Wendy Sherman said Friday in an interview with Voice of America's Persian
Service that her comments reflected American distrust of the Iranian
government that has built up since the breach in relations after the
Islamic Revolution of 1979. But she insisted that she and others in the administration
respect Iranians and believe the talks offer a path for both sides to
improve mutual understanding. Asked what she meant by the statement,
Sherman said, 'I think it referred specifically to what our history of
mistrust has been.... I think these nuclear negotiations will help us get
over that mistrust.' Sherman's words came Oct. 3 during an appearance in
the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in which she faced demands from
lawmakers that the administration take a tough line in the new round of negotiations
that began Oct. 15 in Geneva." http://t.uani.com/18urgHL
Reuters:
"Secretary of State John Kerry and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew will
hold a briefing on Thursday on the status of nuclear talks with Iran for
members of a U.S. Senate committee considering tough new sanctions on
Tehran, Senate aides said on Friday. President Barack Obama's
administration has been pushing the Senate Banking Committee to hold off
on the new sanctions in order to give negotiations with Tehran over its
nuclear program a chance... The secret briefing for members of the
banking panel with Kerry and Lew on the status of the talks with Iran
will take place on Thursday at 4 p.m. (2000 GMT), according to a document
obtained by Reuters." http://t.uani.com/1azg2X8
AP:
"A dual citizen of Iran and the United States is being held for
trial in Manhattan on charges that he conspired to acquire Russian-built
long-range surface-to-air missiles for the Iranian government,
authorities announced Friday. Reza Olangian of Los Gatos, Calif., was
arrested in Tallinn, Estonia, in October 2012 and extradited to the U.S.
in March, prosecutors said as they released a criminal complaint and an
indictment charging him with multiple crimes including conspiracy to
attempt to acquire and transfer surface-to-air missiles as well as
violations of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. In a
release, Derek Maltz, special agent-in-charge of the DEA Special
Operations Division, said: 'Mr. Olangian's conspiracy could have put
American lives at risk, as well as those of our friends across the
globe.'" http://t.uani.com/17mTAlz
Sanctions
FT:
"Maintaining a decent lifestyle is increasingly challenging for
middle-class Iranians like Nahaal and her husband Ali, a computer
engineer whose earnings have lagged behind Iran's annual inflation of 40
per cent (unofficial estimates say the real figure is double this) and
have been affected by the plunge of the rial by around 50 per cent over
the past year. The country's economy has deteriorated rapidly thanks to
oil and banking sanctions imposed by US and European Union over Tehran's
nuclear programme, and because of the populist policies of former
president Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, who doled out monthly cash payments and
gave cheap housing loans to the poor. Consumer prices have risen
consistently as domestic industry has stagnated, GDP has shrunk by 5.4
per cent over the past year and youth unemployment is officially
estimated at 28.30 per cent. During Mr Ahmadi-Nejad's eight-year tenure,
the percentage of Iranian families living under the poverty line
increased from 22 per cent to more than 40 per cent, according to Hossein
Raghfar, a prominent economist who warned that middle class families like
Nahaal and Ali's are feeling increasingly insecure as they see their
living standards deteriorate." http://t.uani.com/17SL3RN
WSJ:
"The European Union is moving to a new approach in reinforcing its
Iran sanctions regime in a bid to prevent legal challenges by companies
from undermining the West's efforts to counter Tehran's nuclear program.
In recent weeks, the EU has informed more than a dozen companies with
ties to Iran that have won rulings against previous restrictions that it
plans to target them with new sanctions, an EU official said. The notices
to the companies mark the first attempt in a broader effort to shore up
economic sanctions against Iran after a raft of defeats in European
courts last month. Although the EU can still challenge many of the
rulings before the EU's top court, European officials have voiced concern
that the prospect of additional legal defeats could further weaken the
sanctions strategy... EU officials say the measures are intended to
safeguard its existing sanctions regime to maintain leverage with Tehran
and aren't aiming at expanding it." http://t.uani.com/190wpf3
WashPost:
"Iran's oil exports are being ravaged by sanctions, but there are
signs under the new president, Hassan Rouhani, that efforts to attract
old clients may be boosting the country's most essential economic
lifeline. China, India and Japan, which together account for half of
Iran's oil exports, have increased their purchases over the past several
months, offering some hope to Iran and complicating U.S.-led efforts to
put pressure on the country over its disputed nuclear program by
attempting to cut off its main source of income... Overall, the
International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that Iran increased its oil
exports by 180,000 barrels per day in September over the previous year, a
26 percent increase. But the monthly total of 1,170,000 barrels per day
still represents a far cry from what industry insiders and analysts say
is possible... 'The great problems we face today in production, exports
and purchase of commodities in the petroleum industry have never been
like they are today,' Iran's oil minister, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, told a
gathering of industry officials Tuesday." http://t.uani.com/190ti6P
Reuters:
"Iran is reaching out to its old oil buyers and is ready to cut
prices if Western sanctions against it are eased, promising a battle for
market share in a world less hungry for oil than when sanctions were
imposed... 'The Iranians are calling around already saying let's talk ...
You have to be careful, of course, but there is no law against talking,'
said a high-level oil trader, whose company is among many that stopped
buying Iran's oil because of sanctions. The West's energy watchdog, the
International Energy Agency (IEA), said this month that despite the first
high-level talks between Iran and the United States since the 1979
Iranian revolution, few expected sanctions to be eased soon. 'Rather,
most expect that turning the clock back on sanctions will be a drawn-out
process based on tangible diplomatic progress with regard to the issues
at hand, which many still view as a remote prospect,' the IEA said.
However, last week Iran issued its first tender in two years to import
fertilizers, in what traders said could be a test ball for the easing of
sanctions on funding import-export operations with the country." http://t.uani.com/190wUpc
WSJ:
"After a three-month break, China has resumed importing Iranian fuel
oil, a practice that has helped it avoid U.S. sanctions designed to
punish countries that import crude oil from Iran. China is unique in that
it has a significant amount of small refineries, called teapot
refineries, that are configured to process fuel oil - a cheap byproduct
of refining - rather than crude oil. This gives China the ability to make
more valuable fuels such as gasoline and diesel without the need to raise
imports of crude oil... Customs data this weeks showed China imported
2.75 million barrels of Iranian fuel oil in September, bringing total
imports to 8.14 million barrels worth $736 million in the first nine
months of this year. By contrast, it imported less than $1 million worth
of fuel oil in all of 2012." http://t.uani.com/16Fy8lM
Human Rights
AP:
"Iran hanged 16 'rebels' of an unspecified armed group on Saturday
in retaliation for the death of 14 border guards in clashes near the
frontier with Pakistan, a semiofficial news agency reported. The
executions took place hours after the rebels ambushed the border guards
near the town of Saravan in southeast Iran, Fars agency quoted local
judicial official Mohammad Marzieh as saying...The report provided few
other details of the hangings. It did not mention a trial, suggesting the
prisoners may already have been convicted and sentenced to death, and
their executions moved up after the ambush. The state news agency IRNA
had earlier described the attackers as 'bandits,' and said authorities
were investigating whether the attackers were drug smugglers or an armed
opposition group." http://t.uani.com/16DnPUS
AFP:
"Iran's press watchdog has imposed a ban on reformist newspaper
Bahar for publishing an article seen by critics as questioning the
beliefs of Shia Islam, media reported Monday. 'Based on the verdict
issued by the press supervisory board, Bahar newspaper has been banned
and its case has been referred to the judiciary,' Mehr news agency quoted
press watchdog head Alaedin Zohourian as saying. Bahar has issued an
apology note, saying publishing an article last week was an
'unintentional mistake', and it temporarily suspended activities on
Saturday to 'ease the tensions.' ... Iran's Culture Minister Ali Janati
also condemned Bahar daily for publishing the article which 'foments
religious conflicts', adding the daily had received earlier warnings.
'Besides deviating the history of Islam, it played a role in creating
religious conflict in the country,' official news agency IRNA quoted
Janati as saying. A leading reformist, Mohammad Reza Aref, also
criticised the article. 'Reformist media should act wisely and should not
give an excuse to rivals who seek to undermine the reformist camp,' he
said." http://t.uani.com/1ccdNIG
Domestic
Politics
Reuters:
"Iran's state oil refining and gas firms cannot afford the
multi-billion dollar cash payments to householders demanded of them by
the current budget, which leaves them nothing to invest in vital
projects, Iran's oil minister said on Sunday. In late 2010, Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad's government began slashing subsidies on a range of fuels in
order to reduce demand and costly fuel imports. It softened the blow by
setting up a system of cash payments to return some of the money to
Iranian householders. The subsidy cuts were successful in rationalising
fuel use and reducing waste. But the cash payments evolved into a broad
system to help Iranians cope with soaring inflation, according to an
International Institute for Sustainable Development study. Iran's new oil
minister, Bijan Zanganeh, said the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC)
and National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC) are
required under the current annual budget to pay 270 trillion rials (about
$9 billion) in cash to Iranian citizens as compensation for higher fuel
bills... 'But we cannot afford it," he said on the sidelines of a
conference in Tehran, adding that NIGC and NIORDC would spend all their
revenues on the handouts and have nothing left to invest in projects.'
... Senior government officials warned in August that Iran faces a
shortfall of one third in this year's budget of around $68 billion
earmarked for March 2013-March 2014." http://t.uani.com/1g5ZyK2
Reuters:
"Tehran authorities have taken down some anti-American posters, amid
signs Iran is seeking better relations with the United States as the two
sides prepare to hold talks over its nuclear program. A Tehran municipal
official said some anti-American billboards had been put up illegally and
had been taken down, state news agency IRNA said on Saturday. 'In an
arbitrary move, without the knowledge or confirmation of the
municipality, one of the cultural institutes installed advertising
billboards,' said spokesman Hadi Ayyazi. Ayyazi did not say which posters
had been taken down. According to IRNA, new anti-American posters were
put up in busy Tehran thoroughfares since last week, ahead of the
November 4 anniversary of the 1979 seizure of hostages in the U.S.
Embassy. One depicted an Iranian negotiator sitting at a table with a
U.S. official who is wearing a suit jacket but also army trousers and
boots, with a caption that read: 'American Honesty'...Lurid anti-American
graffiti and posters have adorned Tehran and other major Iranian cities for
decades. The site of the former U.S. embassy in Tehran depicts the Statue
of Liberty with a skull for a face." http://t.uani.com/1atUhGs
AP:
"Iran's parliament has rejected a close ally of President Hassan
Rouhani for a ministerial post. In a vote Sunday, 141 out of 261
lawmakers present voted against Reza Salehi Amiri, who Rouhani nominated
as sports and youth minister. Opponents said Salehi Amiri lacked
experience for the post, mismanaged other positions he served in and had
a role in unrest after the country's 2009 presidential election. Salehi
Amiri, a member of Rouhani's presidential campaign, denied all the
allegations. Rouhani will have to propose a new nominee for the post in
two weeks. Lawmakers approved two other of Rouhani's ministerial choices
Sunday. They confirmed Reza Faraji Dana as science, research and
technology minister and Ali Asghar Fani as education minister." http://t.uani.com/17SPQT6
Opinion
& Analysis
UANI
Advisory Board Member Walter Russell Mead in The American Interest: "But
as the White House contemplated the ruins of its first-term strategy, a
shining new hope appeared: a new President emerged in Iran, speaking
words of peace. A new opportunity for a great triumph appeared in the
Middle East even as the old hopes faded away; an end to the long standoff
with Iran would redeem the earlier failures and potentially usher in a
new and much more stable era in world affairs. It is a tantalizing and
agonizing moment. On the one hand, so close that the President can
sometimes feel it within his grasp, is the prospect of a 'grand bargain'
with Iran-an arrangement that would stop the nuclear drive, integrate
Iran into some kind of regional system and end the chronic instability
and crisis that has dogged America's regional policy since the old
alliance with Iran collapsed in 1979. On the other hand is the
possibility for catastrophic failure: the outreach to Iran may fail, and
in pursuit of this new ally the President may have irretrievably damaged
his relations with the three powers (Egypt, Israel and Saudi Arabia) that
have grounded our policy for a generation. If President Obama pulls off a
grand bargain with Iran, his foreign policy legacy will be secure. But if
a second strategic initiative in the Middle East ends in definitive failure,
historians will likely see the foreign policy of the Obama years as an
inglorious mess. The prospect of an Iranian bargain is irresistibly
attractive in theory; it is hard to reach in practice. It is very hard to
read Iranian intentions; Iranian diplomacy characteristically moves
behind a screen of feints and deceptions. There are some reasons to think
that the Iranians may be ready to deal; economic sanctions have taken a
serious toll. On the other hand, the regional picture is looking bright
from Tehran's point of view. The United States will soon be leaving
Afghanistan, and it has given up any hope of influencing Iraq. Assad is
still holding out in Syria. The Fertile Crescent is a Shi'a Crescent from
Basra through Baghdad to Beirut. One could argue that it is in Iran's
interest to strike a nuclear deal while its regional position is so
strong. Equally one could argue that if Iran is doing so well in
advancing its regional agenda in the teeth of Washington's opposition and
sanctions, the mullahs have no need to deal. If they stand pat and
continue to play a strong hand against an indecisive America, they have
little to fear and much to gain. In a best-case scenario, the exhausted
mullahs are hungry for a peace with honor that would end the sanctions.
In a worst-case scenario, they are playing on the American
administration's desperate hunger for a deal, holding out false hopes of
an accommodation even as they consolidate their position in Syria, drive
a deeper wedge into America's Middle East alliances, and enrich more
uranium. It is likely that most Iranian diplomats and officials don't
really know what course the Supreme Leader will ultimately take. He
himself may not know what is going to happen. He may not have made up his
mind. There are good arguments for conciliation and for confrontation,
and the Supreme Leader could be keeping his options open as he waits to
see what comes next. One dour reality that American Iran-optimists need
to keep in mind, though: whatever outcome the Supreme Leader seeks, he is
not looking for a 'win-win' deal with the United States. While stubborn
facts may force him to concede on some points, he does not believe that
our core interests are aligned. He wants his power to grow and ours to
diminish, and that is the lens through which he will examine his choices.
During the hostage crisis, Iranians fairly consistently worked to keep
the US and the West engaged in negotiations even as the political
authorities milked the confrontation and used American helplessness and
fecklessness to raise their own prestige and cement their authority at
home and in the region. That may be happening yet again; it is likely
that the White House and the State Department don't know which way the
Iranians will jump. Caught between hope and fear, Washington doesn't yet
know how to manage Iran-but any movement toward Iran risks destabilizing
its carefully built alliances. Iran's carefully arranged diplomatic
outreach has revealed a deep gap between American interests and those of
the Israelis and the Saudis... So here's Obama's problem. Not negotiating
with Iran drives him toward the fateful decision he has tried to avoid
since the first day of his presidency: he doesn't want to be in the
position of choosing between accepting an Iranian nuclear arsenal or
launching a war. But negotiating with Iran throws the Middle East into
upheaval and may stress his ties to his closest allies to the breaking
point-with no guarantee that it will pay off in an agreement. For Iran,
it's an interesting and perhaps enjoyable position. Obama is in a box:
negotiating with Iran and not negotiating with Iran both undermine his
regional position." http://t.uani.com/1aNX1gq
Emanuele
Ottolenghi & Saeed Ghasseminejad in RCW: "Iran
wants the West to believe that a sanctions-induced medicine shortage is
causing the death of thousands of Iranian citizens, and they're using
Western reporters to help spread the word. Never mind the fact that this
purported medicine shortage in Iran is actually a crisis by design,
intentionally foisted upon the Iranian people by a regime intent upon
diverting funds to it illicit nuclear program. Western journalists are
only too eager to report the Iranian spin. In November 2012, the British
newspaper The Guardian published a story penned by Saeed Kamali Dehghan
with the headline: 'Haemophiliac Iranian boy dies after sanctions disrupt
medicine supplies.' The article rehashed a letter sent by the Iran
Hemophilia Society to the World Health Organization (WHO), which had made
the front page of many Iranian media outlets the previous summer. Soon
after, major news networks such as the BBC picked up the story and
amplified it. By January 2013, Dehghan felt confident enough to escalate
the story of one unlucky patient into a purported humanitarian crisis affecting
an entire nation. What Dehghan neglected to mention was that the
hemophiliac in question did not die for lack of medicine, but rather for
lack of speedy access to a hospital. Yet his account was accepted as
truth, even as senior Iranian officials began to affirm that funds
earmarked for medicine were being misspent. For example, former Iranian
minister of health, Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi noted that government
mismanagement of medicinal imports was a reason for the problem. She
alleged that U.S. $2.4B in funds earmarked for the import of medicine had
never been made available to her ministry; it went instead toward the
subsidized import of luxury cars. Western journalists ignored these
allegations, even as she was summarily sacked for her candor, choosing to
write copy that tended to lend credence to Tehran's demands for sanctions
relief. Dastjerdi was not the only official calling foul. Other senior
Iranian officials conceded that the health crisis was self-imposed. In an
interview with the Revolutionary Guard-controlled news agency Fars News,
Iran's new minister of health, Seyed Hassan Ghazizadeh Hashemi recently
stated, 'the medicine problem is caused by ourselves, it is not related
to sanctions at all.' He also alluded to the misapplication by the Ahmadinejad
regime of $20 billion in budgeted healthcare funds toward an ambitious
housing project. Nonetheless, the reports of a sanctions-struck Iran
continue to tug at the heartstrings of the Western public. This has been
amplified by the rise of new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who is
widely touted as a moderate intent on striking a deal with the West that
would solve the nuclear standoff and earn sanctions relief for his
efforts. But Rouhani is not Iran's head of state; that title belongs to
the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He is, in many ways, as much
to blame for the medicine shortages as anyone. In many ways, he is Iran's
Supreme Pharmacist. Through his network of tax-free investment holdings,
Mr. Khamenei directly controls 23 percent of the publicly traded
pharmaceuticals on the Tehran Stock Exchange; the equivalent, at current
market prices, of $290 million. Altogether, the supreme leader controls
two thirds of the Iranian pharmaceutical industry... Contrary to some
reports from the West, the medicine shortage is not proof of the cruelty
of sanctions. It is conclusive evidence of the callous and rapacious
nature of Iran's rulers. Iran's leaders made the choice to prioritize
nuclear progress over the wellbeing of its people. They should not be
rewarded for their malice." http://t.uani.com/HqiBQd
Nicholas Burns in
the Boston Globe: "President Obama and Secretary of
State John Kerry rightly view Iran's nuclear challenge as America's top
international priority for the year ahead. If they can reach an agreement
leaving Iran well short of a nuclear weapon, it will be a major
achievement. To succeed, they will need to keep two opposing strategies
in balance. First, there will be no agreement unless both sides
compromise. The United States and Iran are too proud and powerful to
surrender to each other's dictates. This must be a real negotiation with
Iran agreeing to severe limits and intrusive inspections on its nuclear
activities. The United States, in turn, may need to permit a limited,
albeit highly supervised, Iranian enrichment program in the future. But,
second, the only way that kind of deal can be realized is if the United
States maintains significant pressure on Iran. Nice words from Iranian
President Hassan Rouhani will not sway Washington. Charm alone, however
welcome, rarely swings the balance in high-stakes diplomacy. But power
and leverage do. The United States and the European Union should not lift
major sanctions until Tehran has agreed to a future without nuclear
weapons. In fact, as the administration has been saying, no deal is
preferable to a bad deal that is too lenient on Iran. The only reason
Iran is at the negotiating table, after all, is the devastating impact
that sanctions have had on its economy and currency. As a result, Iran is
weakened, isolated, and on the defensive - further evidence that US
leverage has worked." http://t.uani.com/1eYBCoX
Ian Bremmer in
Reuters: "To date, the range of possible outcomes
have looked like a bell curve. We had a small, 'fat tail' risk of the
situation deteriorating and military strikes against Iran occurring (led
by some combination of the United States and Israel). On the other end of
the spectrum, we had an incredibly slim chance of a breakthrough deal
that could peacefully keep Iran from going nuclear. The status quo -
tightening sanctions and Iran's slow movement toward nuclear breakout
capacity - was the overwhelmingly likely occurrence. But this year, the
curve has shifted. The chance that the status quo simply continues is
much reduced; the likelihood of the best or worst outcome - a military
strike or a breakthrough deal - has risen significantly (although neither
one is probable by any means). So what changed? Two critical things.
First of all, Iran's domestic politics have shifted, at least in part
thanks to the sanctions regime. In August, Hassan Rouhani took office
after being elected on a promise for moderation and (relatively) more
open dealings with the West, as well as a pledge to fix Iran's hobbled
economy. Without Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president, the West is more
amenable to negotiations. The second major factor is that Iran is getting
significantly closer to nuclear weapons capability. Per the August
International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) report, the regime is on pace
to become nuclear-weapons capable in 2014 or 2015 - and that window could
narrow further. Iran is approaching nuclear breakout capacity, the point
at which it could conceivably race to produce sufficient material for a
nuclear weapon and hide it in a secure location before the U.S. or Israel
could amass a military response to stop them. A realistic worst-case
scenario could see breakout time drop to around 10 days - a span too
short to assemble an effective response - by the middle of next year.
These two factors explain why the talks are so important: they are more
likely to succeed, and there are now much higher stakes if they do not.
At the talks last week, American and Iranian officials met for an hour,
Iran ran through a PowerPoint presentation about its proposed solution to
the stand-off, and Iran and the West issued a joint statement praising
the 'positive atmosphere' of the get-together. Happy days! But this is no
guarantee of future success. This is just the beginning of the
negotiations, and despite Rouhani's open stance towards the West, the
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei still calls the shots. (Though word
from Iran is that Khamenei is behind the talks.) The sequencing is
perhaps the most complicated part: the Iranians want the sanctions reduced
before they scale back the nuclear program. The United States will demand
the other order. On top of that, Iran wants to hold on to the right to
enrich uranium; the Americans say that's not acceptable... The worst-case
scenario is that the West and Iran come close to a deal, but it falls
apart, in a manner that the international community blames predominantly
on the United States and Israel. This would embolden major markets like
China and Russia to flout the sanctions, thus unraveling the West's best
bargaining chip with nothing to show for it in return. The West gets
blamed, U.S. credibility is reduced even further, and Iran continues full
speed ahead toward nuclear capability. That's what the American-led
sanctions have been able to avoid thus far, but we may be reaching the
inflection point. The chance that the status quo continues is
diminishing. Success is closer now than ever - but that only makes the
situation more precarious than ever before." http://t.uani.com/1bv1NRt
Stewart Bell
Interview of Matthew Levitt in the National Post:
"On Oct 23, 1983, Hezbollah introduced itself to the world with twin
bombings that killed 241 American and 58 French peacekeepers in Beirut.
Thirty years later, Hezbollah has thousands of fighters in Syria propping
up the Assad regime, tens of thousands of rockets aimed at Israel and a
global network of terrorist operatives. In his new book, Hezbollah: The
Global Footprint of Lebanon's Party of God, former U.S. counterterrorism
official Matthew Levitt examines how Hezbollah's operatives around the
world raise money, buy equipment and commit terror. Before lecturing in
Toronto on Thursday night, he spoke to National Post reporter Stewart
Bell. His comments have been edited for length and clarity...
Q: What are Hezbollah's goals overseas?
A: The first is to
avenge [assassinated Hezbollah military commander Imad] Mugniyah's death,
targeting current or former senior Israeli officials. And the second,
starting in early 2010 at the tasking of Iran, to assassinate Israeli
tourists around the world as part of Iran's shadow war with the West. And
now, on top of that of course, everything they're doing in Syria...
Q: What is Hezbollah's relationship with Iran?
A: Iran helped create
Hezbollah out of a motley crew of Shi'ite militant groups and brought
them under this umbrella of Hezbollah, the Party of God. ... And while
that relationship has varied and shifted over time, it has always been
intimate. It's based on a shared ideology and theology ... and now the
U.S. intelligence community assesses that the Hezbollah relationship is a
strategic partnership with Iran as the primary partner.
Q: Hezbollah is being blamed for the July 2012 bombing in
Bulgaria that targeted Israeli tourists, as well as a number of other
failed plots. Why are they doing this?
A: Without meaning to
be simplistic, because it's not simplistic, but at its core fundamentals
the reason Hezbollah is willing to target Israeli tourists around the
world, the reason they're doing these things is because Iran asked them
to.
Q: You write about Hezbollah's vast organized crime network.
If Hezbollah is financed by Iran, why does it need to smuggle drugs?
A: Twice Iran has had to suddenly, with no prior notice, cut
back Hezbollah's financing, in at least one of those instances by as much
as 30-40%. This hurts. It did signal to Hezbollah that they needed to
diversity their financial portfolio beyond the estimated - and it
fluctuates - $200-million that they get from Iran." http://t.uani.com/1bv09zd
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