Monday, October 28, 2013

Eye on Iran: Senior Iran lawmaker Says 20 Percent Uranium Enrichment Continuing







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Reuters:
"Iran has not halted its most sensitive uranium enrichment work, a senior Iranian parliamentarian said, contradicting a statement by another lawmaker last week. Diplomats accredited to the U.N. nuclear watchdog said on Friday they had no information to substantiate the report that Tehran had halted enrichment of uranium to 20 percent. Israel also dismissed the original report as 'irrelevant'. Any halt of enrichment would be a big surprise, as Western experts believe Iran would want to use such activity as a bargaining chip to win relief from international sanctions. An end to Iran's higher-grade enrichment of uranium is a main demand of world powers negotiating with Tehran over its disputed nuclear work. Enriching uranium to 20 percent is sensitive as it is a relatively short technical step to increase that to the 90 percent needed for making a nuclear weapon. 'Enrichment to 20 percent is continuing,' state news agency IRNA quoted Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of parliament's national security and foreign policy committee, as saying on Saturday." http://t.uani.com/16E5WVN

WSJ: "The White House is pressing Congress to hold back on new sanctions against Iran, pitting the administration's hopes for a re-energized diplomatic engagement against the growing concern of some lawmakers and foreign allies. The Obama administration is arguing that diplomatic efforts need more time to contain Tehran's nuclear program. But a number of Republican and Democratic lawmakers want to bring a new sanctions bill targeting Iran's oil exports and finances to a Senate vote by the end of next week. A similar bill cleared the House of Representatives in July and is waiting to be reconciled with the Senate's... The National Security Council's point man on Iran, Philip Gordon, hosted Senate staffers at the White House on Thursday, and argued that clamping new sanctions on Iran at this stage could prove counterproductive, according to these staffers. A new round of negotiations between global powers and the Iranian government of President Hasan Rouhani is scheduled for Nov. 7-8 in Geneva." http://t.uani.com/1aNXEGQ

AFP: "Iranian negotiators hold this week a series of meetings in Vienna meant to lay the groundwork for substantial progress in talks with world powers in Geneva on November 7-8. On Monday UN atomic watchdog head Yukiya Amano will meet Abbass Araqchi, deputy foreign minister and Tehran's chief nuclear negotiator in Iran's fresh diplomatic push under new President Hassan Rouhani. The same day, the International Atomic Energy Agency will hold separate talks with Iranian officials on allegations that prior to 2003, and possibly since, Tehran carried out nuclear weapons research. Then on Wednesday and Thursday, a seven-member expert Iranian team will meet with counterparts from the six powers -- the United States, Britain, France, China, Russia and Germany -- to prepare the groundwork for the Geneva gathering. All the meetings are behind closed doors. Only the IAEA talks are scheduled to be followed by a news conference, with new chief inspector Tero Varjoranta due to brief reporters around 1700 GMT... 'There is no way that Iran will be able to get to that endpoint without addressing' the IAEA's claims, Mark Hibbs, analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told AFP. But he said Iran would likely wait for a wider deal with the P5+1 before actually granting to the IAEA access to the relevant sites, documents and personnel." http://t.uani.com/1aka9yR
Election Repression ToolkitNuclear Program

Global Security Newswire: "Atomic-energy plans unveiled this week by a top Iranian nuclear official could cast doubt on Tehran's readiness to negotiate limits on fuel-production technologies that also could generate bomb material, Western issue experts told Global Security Newswire... On Tuesday, Iran's atomic energy organization indicated the country might soon begin producing its own power-plant fuel. This move has prompted some analysts to question whether the country is willing to reduce its quantity of enrichment centrifuges, a move that could prove crucial to defusing the international standoff... Iran plans in three months to start manufacturing 'uranium dioxide' to 'feed' its single nuclear power plant, a state media report quoted agency head Ali Akbar Salehi as saying. The Iranian news article appears to refer to the production of uranium fuel rods, a process in which uranium dioxide is an 'intermediate product,' Henderson said in a brief telephone interview. 'The Russians would probably be very happy to continue supplying the fuel, but the Iranians are essentially signaling that [if] they want to fuel this reactor themselves, they need to retain a very large enrichment capacity,' the analyst said... Iran would need between 60,000 and 100,000 of its most-basic centrifuge model -- more than three times the number it now possesses -- to fully take over fuel production for its nuclear plant at Bushehr, said David Albright, head of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington. That quantity might be enough to run the Bushehr reactor, but Salehi on Thursday reaffirmed plans to build more atomic energy sites that would require additional fuel. Speaking to GSN by telephone, Albright said Iran would have to cap its enrichment program at no more than 10,000 'IR-1' machines to provide a six-month buffer period adequate for an international response if the nation tried to produce nuclear-weapon fuel." http://t.uani.com/1cmtyRl

AFP: "A prominent Iranian lawmaker said on Sunday Iran would never agree to shut down its Fordo underground nuclear enrichment facility as demanded by world powers, Mehr news agency reported. 'It is possible that they set some conditions such as shutting down Fordo, which definitely will not happen,' Mehr quoted Alaeddin Boroujerdi, head of the parliament's foreign policy committee, as saying. Fordo, with nearly 3,000 centrifuges and dug deep into a mountain near the holy city of Qom, some 150 kilometres (90 miles) south of Tehran, is at the heart of international concerns over Iran's nuclear drive. The site, whose existence was revealed in 2009, began in late 2011 to enrich uranium to purities of 20 percent, a few technical steps away from the 90-percent level needed for a nuclear weapon." http://t.uani.com/18tdfds

Free Beacon: "Iran plans to build many new nuclear plants with atomic reactors along its coastlines with the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea, Iran's top nuclear official announced on Thursday... Iranian leaders, however, have remained defiant in the face of talks, announcing on Thursday that Tehran will build 'enough atomic reactors to generate a total of 20,000 megawatts of electricity by 2020,' according to the country's state-run Fars News Agency... At least 34 sites have already been designated for future nuclear power plants, according to Fars. Additionally, Salehi announced just two days after nuclear negotiations ended that Russia would help Iran build new nuclear power plants across the country, according to Persian language press reports... Around 13,000 people are involved in Iran's nuclear sector, according to Salehi, who also revealed that Russia could soon begin construction on a second nuclear power plant in Iran." http://t.uani.com/16FxFjL

CNN: "Iran may need only a month to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb, a U.S.-based anti-proliferation group says in a new assessment of Tehran's enrichment program. But that is only if the country were able to take the most extreme and direct enrichment path, says the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington. Under other scenarios, it would take significantly longer for Tehran to produce the material -- more than 11 months in one estimate. And that would still not give Iran a nuclear bomb. Turning enriched uranium into a usable weapon would take a great deal more time, the report suggests... According to ISIS, the quickest route to a usable amount of weapons-grade uranium in the current circumstances could take Iran 'as little as approximately 1.0--1.6 months.' It said it updated its estimates based on the view that Iran has increased the number of centrifuges at its Fordow and Natanz plants and has begun installing a more advanced centrifuge model at Natanz. 'The shortening breakout times have implications for any negotiation with Iran,' the report says. 'An essential finding is that they are currently too short and shortening further, based on the current trend of centrifuge deployments.'" http://t.uani.com/Hlbppa

LAT: "As the U.S. presses for a deal to limit Iran's nuclear program, it is getting help from an unlikely ally: Russia... Despite Moscow's good relations with Tehran and its fervent dislike of international sanctions as a policy tool, it has provided crucial support to the effort to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions. Russia worries that failure to strike a deal would lead to military action against Iran, which would destabilize a vast stretch of territory along the southern Russia frontier and roil the markets for its oil and natural gas, on which Russia's economy depends. 'There are tactical differences,' said Gary Samore, a former member of Obama's inner circle of Iran advisors, who is now research director at the Belfer Center at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. 'But at the end of the day, the United States and Russia have common interests.' ... On the nuclear talks, former Obama advisor Samore said he expected the Russians to again push both sides hard to make a deal, and that they will be flexible on the outcome. The Russians 'don't care about the details of an agreement,' he said. 'They just want an agreement.'" http://t.uani.com/19LTGkk

Reuters: "Experts from Iran and six world powers will meet in Vienna on October 30-31 to prepare the next round of high-level talks on the contested Iranian nuclear program with hopes of a breakthrough rising thanks to a diplomatic opening from Tehran. Western diplomats say the meeting, scheduled to take place a week before the next round of negotiations in Geneva in November, could be instrumental in defining the contours of any preliminary agreement on Iran's uranium enrichment campaign... 'I can confirm the technical meeting on October 30 and 31 in Vienna to prepare the talks ... in Geneva,' said Maja Kocijancic, a spokeswoman for European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who oversees diplomacy with Iran on behalf of the six states. 'Experts from the EU and the six will participate.'" http://t.uani.com/1g61QZD

LAT: "America's chief negotiator with Iran promised in a broadcast intended for Iranians that she will be a 'fair, balanced' participant in talks over Tehran's nuclear program, despite her comment this month that 'deception is part of the DNA' among Iranians. Facing criticism from hard-line news media and some lawmakers in Iran, Undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman said Friday in an interview with Voice of America's Persian Service that her comments reflected American distrust of the Iranian government that has built up since the breach in relations after the Islamic Revolution of 1979. But she insisted that she and others in the administration respect Iranians and believe the talks offer a path for both sides to improve mutual understanding. Asked what she meant by the statement, Sherman said, 'I think it referred specifically to what our history of mistrust has been.... I think these nuclear negotiations will help us get over that mistrust.' Sherman's words came Oct. 3 during an appearance in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in which she faced demands from lawmakers that the administration take a tough line in the new round of negotiations that began Oct. 15 in Geneva." http://t.uani.com/18urgHL

Reuters: "Secretary of State John Kerry and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew will hold a briefing on Thursday on the status of nuclear talks with Iran for members of a U.S. Senate committee considering tough new sanctions on Tehran, Senate aides said on Friday. President Barack Obama's administration has been pushing the Senate Banking Committee to hold off on the new sanctions in order to give negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear program a chance... The secret briefing for members of the banking panel with Kerry and Lew on the status of the talks with Iran will take place on Thursday at 4 p.m. (2000 GMT), according to a document obtained by Reuters." http://t.uani.com/1azg2X8

AP: "A dual citizen of Iran and the United States is being held for trial in Manhattan on charges that he conspired to acquire Russian-built long-range surface-to-air missiles for the Iranian government, authorities announced Friday. Reza Olangian of Los Gatos, Calif., was arrested in Tallinn, Estonia, in October 2012 and extradited to the U.S. in March, prosecutors said as they released a criminal complaint and an indictment charging him with multiple crimes including conspiracy to attempt to acquire and transfer surface-to-air missiles as well as violations of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. In a release, Derek Maltz, special agent-in-charge of the DEA Special Operations Division, said: 'Mr. Olangian's conspiracy could have put American lives at risk, as well as those of our friends across the globe.'" http://t.uani.com/17mTAlz

Sanctions

FT: "Maintaining a decent lifestyle is increasingly challenging for middle-class Iranians like Nahaal and her husband Ali, a computer engineer whose earnings have lagged behind Iran's annual inflation of 40 per cent (unofficial estimates say the real figure is double this) and have been affected by the plunge of the rial by around 50 per cent over the past year. The country's economy has deteriorated rapidly thanks to oil and banking sanctions imposed by US and European Union over Tehran's nuclear programme, and because of the populist policies of former president Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, who doled out monthly cash payments and gave cheap housing loans to the poor. Consumer prices have risen consistently as domestic industry has stagnated, GDP has shrunk by 5.4 per cent over the past year and youth unemployment is officially estimated at 28.30 per cent. During Mr Ahmadi-Nejad's eight-year tenure, the percentage of Iranian families living under the poverty line increased from 22 per cent to more than 40 per cent, according to Hossein Raghfar, a prominent economist who warned that middle class families like Nahaal and Ali's are feeling increasingly insecure as they see their living standards deteriorate." http://t.uani.com/17SL3RN

WSJ: "The European Union is moving to a new approach in reinforcing its Iran sanctions regime in a bid to prevent legal challenges by companies from undermining the West's efforts to counter Tehran's nuclear program. In recent weeks, the EU has informed more than a dozen companies with ties to Iran that have won rulings against previous restrictions that it plans to target them with new sanctions, an EU official said. The notices to the companies mark the first attempt in a broader effort to shore up economic sanctions against Iran after a raft of defeats in European courts last month. Although the EU can still challenge many of the rulings before the EU's top court, European officials have voiced concern that the prospect of additional legal defeats could further weaken the sanctions strategy... EU officials say the measures are intended to safeguard its existing sanctions regime to maintain leverage with Tehran and aren't aiming at expanding it." http://t.uani.com/190wpf3

WashPost: "Iran's oil exports are being ravaged by sanctions, but there are signs under the new president, Hassan Rouhani, that efforts to attract old clients may be boosting the country's most essential economic lifeline. China, India and Japan, which together account for half of Iran's oil exports, have increased their purchases over the past several months, offering some hope to Iran and complicating U.S.-led efforts to put pressure on the country over its disputed nuclear program by attempting to cut off its main source of income... Overall, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that Iran increased its oil exports by 180,000 barrels per day in September over the previous year, a 26 percent increase. But the monthly total of 1,170,000 barrels per day still represents a far cry from what industry insiders and analysts say is possible... 'The great problems we face today in production, exports and purchase of commodities in the petroleum industry have never been like they are today,' Iran's oil minister, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, told a gathering of industry officials Tuesday." http://t.uani.com/190ti6P

Reuters: "Iran is reaching out to its old oil buyers and is ready to cut prices if Western sanctions against it are eased, promising a battle for market share in a world less hungry for oil than when sanctions were imposed... 'The Iranians are calling around already saying let's talk ... You have to be careful, of course, but there is no law against talking,' said a high-level oil trader, whose company is among many that stopped buying Iran's oil because of sanctions. The West's energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency (IEA), said this month that despite the first high-level talks between Iran and the United States since the 1979 Iranian revolution, few expected sanctions to be eased soon. 'Rather, most expect that turning the clock back on sanctions will be a drawn-out process based on tangible diplomatic progress with regard to the issues at hand, which many still view as a remote prospect,' the IEA said. However, last week Iran issued its first tender in two years to import fertilizers, in what traders said could be a test ball for the easing of sanctions on funding import-export operations with the country." http://t.uani.com/190wUpc

WSJ: "After a three-month break, China has resumed importing Iranian fuel oil, a practice that has helped it avoid U.S. sanctions designed to punish countries that import crude oil from Iran. China is unique in that it has a significant amount of small refineries, called teapot refineries, that are configured to process fuel oil - a cheap byproduct of refining - rather than crude oil. This gives China the ability to make more valuable fuels such as gasoline and diesel without the need to raise imports of crude oil... Customs data this weeks showed China imported 2.75 million barrels of Iranian fuel oil in September, bringing total imports to 8.14 million barrels worth $736 million in the first nine months of this year. By contrast, it imported less than $1 million worth of fuel oil in all of 2012." http://t.uani.com/16Fy8lM

Human Rights

AP: "Iran hanged 16 'rebels' of an unspecified armed group on Saturday in retaliation for the death of 14 border guards in clashes near the frontier with Pakistan, a semiofficial news agency reported. The executions took place hours after the rebels ambushed the border guards near the town of Saravan in southeast Iran, Fars agency quoted local judicial official Mohammad Marzieh as saying...The report provided few other details of the hangings. It did not mention a trial, suggesting the prisoners may already have been convicted and sentenced to death, and their executions moved up after the ambush. The state news agency IRNA had earlier described the attackers as 'bandits,' and said authorities were investigating whether the attackers were drug smugglers or an armed opposition group." http://t.uani.com/16DnPUS

AFP: "Iran's press watchdog has imposed a ban on reformist newspaper Bahar for publishing an article seen by critics as questioning the beliefs of Shia Islam, media reported Monday. 'Based on the verdict issued by the press supervisory board, Bahar newspaper has been banned and its case has been referred to the judiciary,' Mehr news agency quoted press watchdog head Alaedin Zohourian as saying. Bahar has issued an apology note, saying publishing an article last week was an 'unintentional mistake', and it temporarily suspended activities on Saturday to 'ease the tensions.' ... Iran's Culture Minister Ali Janati also condemned Bahar daily for publishing the article which 'foments religious conflicts', adding the daily had received earlier warnings. 'Besides deviating the history of Islam, it played a role in creating religious conflict in the country,' official news agency IRNA quoted Janati as saying. A leading reformist, Mohammad Reza Aref, also criticised the article. 'Reformist media should act wisely and should not give an excuse to rivals who seek to undermine the reformist camp,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1ccdNIG

Domestic Politics

Reuters: "Iran's state oil refining and gas firms cannot afford the multi-billion dollar cash payments to householders demanded of them by the current budget, which leaves them nothing to invest in vital projects, Iran's oil minister said on Sunday. In late 2010, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's government began slashing subsidies on a range of fuels in order to reduce demand and costly fuel imports. It softened the blow by setting up a system of cash payments to return some of the money to Iranian householders. The subsidy cuts were successful in rationalising fuel use and reducing waste. But the cash payments evolved into a broad system to help Iranians cope with soaring inflation, according to an International Institute for Sustainable Development study. Iran's new oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, said the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) and National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC) are required under the current annual budget to pay 270 trillion rials (about $9 billion) in cash to Iranian citizens as compensation for higher fuel bills... 'But we cannot afford it," he said on the sidelines of a conference in Tehran, adding that NIGC and NIORDC would spend all their revenues on the handouts and have nothing left to invest in projects.' ... Senior government officials warned in August that Iran faces a shortfall of one third in this year's budget of around $68 billion earmarked for March 2013-March 2014." http://t.uani.com/1g5ZyK2

Reuters: "Tehran authorities have taken down some anti-American posters, amid signs Iran is seeking better relations with the United States as the two sides prepare to hold talks over its nuclear program. A Tehran municipal official said some anti-American billboards had been put up illegally and had been taken down, state news agency IRNA said on Saturday. 'In an arbitrary move, without the knowledge or confirmation of the municipality, one of the cultural institutes installed advertising billboards,' said spokesman Hadi Ayyazi. Ayyazi did not say which posters had been taken down. According to IRNA, new anti-American posters were put up in busy Tehran thoroughfares since last week, ahead of the November 4 anniversary of the 1979 seizure of hostages in the U.S. Embassy. One depicted an Iranian negotiator sitting at a table with a U.S. official who is wearing a suit jacket but also army trousers and boots, with a caption that read: 'American Honesty'...Lurid anti-American graffiti and posters have adorned Tehran and other major Iranian cities for decades. The site of the former U.S. embassy in Tehran depicts the Statue of Liberty with a skull for a face." http://t.uani.com/1atUhGs

AP: "Iran's parliament has rejected a close ally of President Hassan Rouhani for a ministerial post. In a vote Sunday, 141 out of 261 lawmakers present voted against Reza Salehi Amiri, who Rouhani nominated as sports and youth minister. Opponents said Salehi Amiri lacked experience for the post, mismanaged other positions he served in and had a role in unrest after the country's 2009 presidential election. Salehi Amiri, a member of Rouhani's presidential campaign, denied all the allegations. Rouhani will have to propose a new nominee for the post in two weeks. Lawmakers approved two other of Rouhani's ministerial choices Sunday. They confirmed Reza Faraji Dana as science, research and technology minister and Ali Asghar Fani as education minister." http://t.uani.com/17SPQT6
Opinion & Analysis

UANI Advisory Board Member Walter Russell Mead in The American Interest: "But as the White House contemplated the ruins of its first-term strategy, a shining new hope appeared: a new President emerged in Iran, speaking words of peace. A new opportunity for a great triumph appeared in the Middle East even as the old hopes faded away; an end to the long standoff with Iran would redeem the earlier failures and potentially usher in a new and much more stable era in world affairs. It is a tantalizing and agonizing moment. On the one hand, so close that the President can sometimes feel it within his grasp, is the prospect of a 'grand bargain' with Iran-an arrangement that would stop the nuclear drive, integrate Iran into some kind of regional system and end the chronic instability and crisis that has dogged America's regional policy since the old alliance with Iran collapsed in 1979. On the other hand is the possibility for catastrophic failure: the outreach to Iran may fail, and in pursuit of this new ally the President may have irretrievably damaged his relations with the three powers (Egypt, Israel and Saudi Arabia) that have grounded our policy for a generation. If President Obama pulls off a grand bargain with Iran, his foreign policy legacy will be secure. But if a second strategic initiative in the Middle East ends in definitive failure, historians will likely see the foreign policy of the Obama years as an inglorious mess. The prospect of an Iranian bargain is irresistibly attractive in theory; it is hard to reach in practice. It is very hard to read Iranian intentions; Iranian diplomacy characteristically moves behind a screen of feints and deceptions. There are some reasons to think that the Iranians may be ready to deal; economic sanctions have taken a serious toll. On the other hand, the regional picture is looking bright from Tehran's point of view. The United States will soon be leaving Afghanistan, and it has given up any hope of influencing Iraq. Assad is still holding out in Syria. The Fertile Crescent is a Shi'a Crescent from Basra through Baghdad to Beirut. One could argue that it is in Iran's interest to strike a nuclear deal while its regional position is so strong. Equally one could argue that if Iran is doing so well in advancing its regional agenda in the teeth of Washington's opposition and sanctions, the mullahs have no need to deal. If they stand pat and continue to play a strong hand against an indecisive America, they have little to fear and much to gain. In a best-case scenario, the exhausted mullahs are hungry for a peace with honor that would end the sanctions. In a worst-case scenario, they are playing on the American administration's desperate hunger for a deal, holding out false hopes of an accommodation even as they consolidate their position in Syria, drive a deeper wedge into America's Middle East alliances, and enrich more uranium. It is likely that most Iranian diplomats and officials don't really know what course the Supreme Leader will ultimately take. He himself may not know what is going to happen. He may not have made up his mind. There are good arguments for conciliation and for confrontation, and the Supreme Leader could be keeping his options open as he waits to see what comes next. One dour reality that American Iran-optimists need to keep in mind, though: whatever outcome the Supreme Leader seeks, he is not looking for a 'win-win' deal with the United States. While stubborn facts may force him to concede on some points, he does not believe that our core interests are aligned. He wants his power to grow and ours to diminish, and that is the lens through which he will examine his choices. During the hostage crisis, Iranians fairly consistently worked to keep the US and the West engaged in negotiations even as the political authorities milked the confrontation and used American helplessness and fecklessness to raise their own prestige and cement their authority at home and in the region. That may be happening yet again; it is likely that the White House and the State Department don't know which way the Iranians will jump. Caught between hope and fear, Washington doesn't yet know how to manage Iran-but any movement toward Iran risks destabilizing its carefully built alliances. Iran's carefully arranged diplomatic outreach has revealed a deep gap between American interests and those of the Israelis and the Saudis... So here's Obama's problem. Not negotiating with Iran drives him toward the fateful decision he has tried to avoid since the first day of his presidency: he doesn't want to be in the position of choosing between accepting an Iranian nuclear arsenal or launching a war. But negotiating with Iran throws the Middle East into upheaval and may stress his ties to his closest allies to the breaking point-with no guarantee that it will pay off in an agreement. For Iran, it's an interesting and perhaps enjoyable position. Obama is in a box: negotiating with Iran and not negotiating with Iran both undermine his regional position." http://t.uani.com/1aNX1gq

Emanuele Ottolenghi & Saeed Ghasseminejad in RCW: "Iran wants the West to believe that a sanctions-induced medicine shortage is causing the death of thousands of Iranian citizens, and they're using Western reporters to help spread the word. Never mind the fact that this purported medicine shortage in Iran is actually a crisis by design, intentionally foisted upon the Iranian people by a regime intent upon diverting funds to it illicit nuclear program. Western journalists are only too eager to report the Iranian spin. In November 2012, the British newspaper The Guardian published a story penned by Saeed Kamali Dehghan with the headline: 'Haemophiliac Iranian boy dies after sanctions disrupt medicine supplies.' The article rehashed a letter sent by the Iran Hemophilia Society to the World Health Organization (WHO), which had made the front page of many Iranian media outlets the previous summer. Soon after, major news networks such as the BBC picked up the story and amplified it. By January 2013, Dehghan felt confident enough to escalate the story of one unlucky patient into a purported humanitarian crisis affecting an entire nation. What Dehghan neglected to mention was that the hemophiliac in question did not die for lack of medicine, but rather for lack of speedy access to a hospital. Yet his account was accepted as truth, even as senior Iranian officials began to affirm that funds earmarked for medicine were being misspent. For example, former Iranian minister of health, Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi noted that government mismanagement of medicinal imports was a reason for the problem. She alleged that U.S. $2.4B in funds earmarked for the import of medicine had never been made available to her ministry; it went instead toward the subsidized import of luxury cars. Western journalists ignored these allegations, even as she was summarily sacked for her candor, choosing to write copy that tended to lend credence to Tehran's demands for sanctions relief. Dastjerdi was not the only official calling foul. Other senior Iranian officials conceded that the health crisis was self-imposed. In an interview with the Revolutionary Guard-controlled news agency Fars News, Iran's new minister of health, Seyed Hassan Ghazizadeh Hashemi recently stated, 'the medicine problem is caused by ourselves, it is not related to sanctions at all.' He also alluded to the misapplication by the Ahmadinejad regime of $20 billion in budgeted healthcare funds toward an ambitious housing project. Nonetheless, the reports of a sanctions-struck Iran continue to tug at the heartstrings of the Western public. This has been amplified by the rise of new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who is widely touted as a moderate intent on striking a deal with the West that would solve the nuclear standoff and earn sanctions relief for his efforts. But Rouhani is not Iran's head of state; that title belongs to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He is, in many ways, as much to blame for the medicine shortages as anyone. In many ways, he is Iran's Supreme Pharmacist. Through his network of tax-free investment holdings, Mr. Khamenei directly controls 23 percent of the publicly traded pharmaceuticals on the Tehran Stock Exchange; the equivalent, at current market prices, of $290 million. Altogether, the supreme leader controls two thirds of the Iranian pharmaceutical industry... Contrary to some reports from the West, the medicine shortage is not proof of the cruelty of sanctions. It is conclusive evidence of the callous and rapacious nature of Iran's rulers. Iran's leaders made the choice to prioritize nuclear progress over the wellbeing of its people. They should not be rewarded for their malice." http://t.uani.com/HqiBQd

Nicholas Burns in the Boston Globe: "President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry rightly view Iran's nuclear challenge as America's top international priority for the year ahead. If they can reach an agreement leaving Iran well short of a nuclear weapon, it will be a major achievement. To succeed, they will need to keep two opposing strategies in balance.  First, there will be no agreement unless both sides compromise. The United States and Iran are too proud and powerful to surrender to each other's dictates. This must be a real negotiation with Iran agreeing to severe limits and intrusive inspections on its nuclear activities. The United States, in turn, may need to permit a limited, albeit highly supervised, Iranian enrichment program in the future. But, second, the only way that kind of deal can be realized is if the United States maintains significant pressure on Iran. Nice words from Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will not sway Washington. Charm alone, however welcome, rarely swings the balance in high-stakes diplomacy. But power and leverage do. The United States and the European Union should not lift major sanctions until Tehran has agreed to a future without nuclear weapons. In fact, as the administration has been saying, no deal is preferable to a bad deal that is too lenient on Iran. The only reason Iran is at the negotiating table, after all, is the devastating impact that sanctions have had on its economy and currency. As a result, Iran is weakened, isolated, and on the defensive - further evidence that US leverage has worked." http://t.uani.com/1eYBCoX

Ian Bremmer in Reuters: "To date, the range of possible outcomes have looked like a bell curve. We had a small, 'fat tail' risk of the situation deteriorating and military strikes against Iran occurring (led by some combination of the United States and Israel). On the other end of the spectrum, we had an incredibly slim chance of a breakthrough deal that could peacefully keep Iran from going nuclear. The status quo - tightening sanctions and Iran's slow movement toward nuclear breakout capacity - was the overwhelmingly likely occurrence. But this year, the curve has shifted. The chance that the status quo simply continues is much reduced; the likelihood of the best or worst outcome - a military strike or a breakthrough deal - has risen significantly (although neither one is probable by any means). So what changed? Two critical things. First of all, Iran's domestic politics have shifted, at least in part thanks to the sanctions regime. In August, Hassan Rouhani took office after being elected on a promise for moderation and (relatively) more open dealings with the West, as well as a pledge to fix Iran's hobbled economy. Without Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president, the West is more amenable to negotiations. The second major factor is that Iran is getting significantly closer to nuclear weapons capability. Per the August International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) report, the regime is on pace to become nuclear-weapons capable in 2014 or 2015 - and that window could narrow further. Iran is approaching nuclear breakout capacity, the point at which it could conceivably race to produce sufficient material for a nuclear weapon and hide it in a secure location before the U.S. or Israel could amass a military response to stop them. A realistic worst-case scenario could see breakout time drop to around 10 days - a span too short to assemble an effective response - by the middle of next year. These two factors explain why the talks are so important: they are more likely to succeed, and there are now much higher stakes if they do not. At the talks last week, American and Iranian officials met for an hour, Iran ran through a PowerPoint presentation about its proposed solution to the stand-off, and Iran and the West issued a joint statement praising the 'positive atmosphere' of the get-together. Happy days! But this is no guarantee of future success. This is just the beginning of the negotiations, and despite Rouhani's open stance towards the West, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei still calls the shots. (Though word from Iran is that Khamenei is behind the talks.) The sequencing is perhaps the most complicated part: the Iranians want the sanctions reduced before they scale back the nuclear program. The United States will demand the other order. On top of that, Iran wants to hold on to the right to enrich uranium; the Americans say that's not acceptable... The worst-case scenario is that the West and Iran come close to a deal, but it falls apart, in a manner that the international community blames predominantly on the United States and Israel. This would embolden major markets like China and Russia to flout the sanctions, thus unraveling the West's best bargaining chip with nothing to show for it in return. The West gets blamed, U.S. credibility is reduced even further, and Iran continues full speed ahead toward nuclear capability. That's what the American-led sanctions have been able to avoid thus far, but we may be reaching the inflection point. The chance that the status quo continues is diminishing. Success is closer now than ever - but that only makes the situation more precarious than ever before." http://t.uani.com/1bv1NRt

Stewart Bell Interview of Matthew Levitt in the National Post: "On Oct 23, 1983, Hezbollah introduced itself to the world with twin bombings that killed 241 American and 58 French peacekeepers in Beirut. Thirty years later, Hezbollah has thousands of fighters in Syria propping up the Assad regime, tens of thousands of rockets aimed at Israel and a global network of terrorist operatives. In his new book, Hezbollah: The Global Footprint of Lebanon's Party of God, former U.S. counterterrorism official Matthew Levitt examines how Hezbollah's operatives around the world raise money, buy equipment and commit terror. Before lecturing in Toronto on Thursday night, he spoke to National Post reporter Stewart Bell. His comments have been edited for length and clarity...
Q: What are Hezbollah's goals overseas?
A: The first is to avenge [assassinated Hezbollah military commander Imad] Mugniyah's death, targeting current or former senior Israeli officials. And the second, starting in early 2010 at the tasking of Iran, to assassinate Israeli tourists around the world as part of Iran's shadow war with the West. And now, on top of that of course, everything they're doing in Syria...
Q: What is Hezbollah's relationship with Iran?
A: Iran helped create Hezbollah out of a motley crew of Shi'ite militant groups and brought them under this umbrella of Hezbollah, the Party of God. ... And while that relationship has varied and shifted over time, it has always been intimate. It's based on a shared ideology and theology ... and now the U.S. intelligence community assesses that the Hezbollah relationship is a strategic partnership with Iran as the primary partner.
Q: Hezbollah is being blamed for the July 2012 bombing in Bulgaria that targeted Israeli tourists, as well as a number of other failed plots. Why are they doing this?
A: Without meaning to be simplistic, because it's not simplistic, but at its core fundamentals the reason Hezbollah is willing to target Israeli tourists around the world, the reason they're doing these things is because Iran asked them to.
Q: You write about Hezbollah's vast organized crime network. If Hezbollah is financed by Iran, why does it need to smuggle drugs?
A: Twice Iran has had to suddenly, with no prior notice, cut back Hezbollah's financing, in at least one of those instances by as much as 30-40%. This hurts. It did signal to Hezbollah that they needed to diversity their financial portfolio beyond the estimated - and it fluctuates - $200-million that they get from Iran." http://t.uani.com/1bv09zd

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

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