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Top Stories
USA TODAY: "Iran
could produce enough weapons-grade uranium to build a nuclear bomb in as
little as a month, according to a new estimate by one of the USA's top
nuclear experts... 'Shortening breakout times have implications for any
negotiation with Iran,' stated the report by the Institute for Science
and International Security. 'An essential finding is that they are
currently too short and shortening further.' David Albright, president of
the institute and a former inspector for the U.N. International Atomic
Energy Agency, said the estimate means that Iran would have to eliminate
more than half of its 19,000 centrifuges to extend the time it would take
to build a bomb to six months... In the report, Albright said
negotiations with Iran should focus on so-called 'breakout' times, or the
time required to convert low-enriched uranium to weapons-grade. Albright,
who has testified before Congress, said the negotiators should try to
find ways to lengthen the breakout times and shorten the time that
inspectors could detect breakout. ISIS' analysis is based on the latest
Iranian and United Nations reports on Iran's centrifuge equipment for
producing nuclear fuel and its nuclear fuel stockpiles. Iran's stockpile
of highly-enriched uranium has nearly doubled in a year's time and its
number of centrifuges has expanded from 12,000 in 2012 to 19,000
today." http://t.uani.com/1ePCmN0
Reuters:
"Iran's oil sales in October will fall to their lowest in months,
according to sources who track tanker loadings, indicating no early
petrodollar dividend for Iran despite its apparent willingness to
compromise on its disputed nuclear work. The OPEC-member is reaching out
to its mostly Asian oil buyers to start clawing back the million barrels
in market share lost to rivals such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia since the
U.S. and EU slapped it last year with the toughest sanctions in decades.
But the buyers have been lukewarm to Iranian offers of discounted oil.
The Asian market is well supplied, with shipments rising from Russia,
West Africa and Latin America as import demand in the West slows, and
with other Middle Eastern producers lowering prices to retain customers.
Keeping Iran oil imports at reduced levels will also make it easier for
China, India, Japan and South Korea - Tehran's top clients - to win the
sanction waivers the United States grants every six months for
progressively lower oil buys from Iran. It is not clear how Washington
would react if Iran oil shipments began creeping up, and the importers
are unlikely to take chances, especially since U.S. officials have said
easing of the sanctions would take time despite the thaw in relations.
'Unless there are clear signals (on the easing of tensions), I don't
think there will be big change in imports,' said a Chinese industry
source familiar with the situation. 'As long as the U.S. waiver is still
there, no one can make a big move.' ... The Middle Eastern nation's crude
exports, excluding condensate, are expected to fall nearly 30 percent
from a year earlier to 719,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October,
according to the sources who track its tanker loading plans. September
loadings were estimated to have come in at 966,800 bpd, according to the
sources... That means a plunge in the exports to near the 636,000 bpd
level touched in April, the smallest daily average in decades... The
sharp fall in October will be led by China, Iran's top oil customer,
which is expected to lift just 188,400 bpd, less than half the average
imports between January and September." http://t.uani.com/16xOKRH
Reuters:
"The United States is not looking to ease sanctions on Iran 'at the
front end' of negotiations over the Iranian nuclear program, a senior
White House official said on Thursday. The Islamic republic would have to
take 'concrete steps' to address its program before Washington could
provide sanctions relief, Ben Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser
to President Barack Obama, said at the Reuters Washington Summit... In an
hour-long interview, Rhodes said one way to offer Iran sanctions relief
would be to give it access to frozen funds. But he said that was simply
one possibility among many and that he did not wish to suggest a
preferred course had been identified... 'We are not contemplating
anything that removes those sanctions at the front end of any negotiation
or agreement, because it's going to be important to test Iranian
intentions,' Rhodes said. 'Before we could pursue sanctions relief, we'd
have to see concrete steps by the Iranians to get at the state of their
nuclear program,' he added at the summit, held at the Reuters office in
Washington. Rhodes made clear the Obama administration wanted some
flexibility from the U.S. Congress to explore such a deal, saying the
White House would like lawmakers to consider the progress of negotiations
as they contemplate any new sanctions." http://t.uani.com/16zVQ2Z
 Nuclear
Program
AP:
"A top nuclear negotiator from Tehran will meet with the head of the
U.N.'s nuclear agency next week just hours before agency experts sit down
with Iranian counterparts to renew their push for access to sites, people
and documents believed linked to possible work on atomic arms, the agency
said Thursday. The talks between International Atomic Energy Agency
specialists and Iranian negotiators have been set for nearly a month. But
Iran's decision to send Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was only
announced Thursday... The IAEA, in an email to The Associated Press, said
Araghchi will meet with agency chief Yukiya Amano on Monday afternoon for
about an hour. Two hours later, agency officials seeking to restart their
probe of suspicions that Tehran worked on the bomb will meet with Iranian
officials, the IAEA said... The Vienna talks have been deadlocked for
nearly two years, with agency experts seeking an open-ended probe and
Iran insisting that it be carefully scripted." http://t.uani.com/HjwMaP
JPost:
"Iran is facing one of its most difficult periods since its war with
Iraq in the 1980s, making the current period conducive for reaching a
potential deal, former Mossad chief Meir Dagan said on Thursday.
Addressing the Iran at a Cross Roads conference at the Institute for
National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, Dagan said that economic
troubles caused by sanctions, growing ethnic tensions within Iran (such
as discord among Azeris and Baluchis), and conflict with the Sunni world
have all contributed to Iran's difficulties. 'This is the most
comfortable time to gain achievements in talks with Iranians,' Dagan
said, citing high levels of hostility developing against the regime
inside and outside of Iran. He stressed, however, that the Islamic
Republic 'hasn't changed its policies because of Rouhani's election. The
president does not set the policies in Iran.'" http://t.uani.com/H6yPxX
Sanctions
Reuters:
"The White House hosted a meeting of aides to Senate committee
leaders on Thursday seeking to persuade lawmakers to hold off on a
package of tough new sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program, a
senior Senate aide said. The White House will press for another delay on
a sanctions bill that had been expected to come to a vote in the Senate
Banking Committee last month but was held back after appeals from
President Barack Obama's administration to let negotiations on Iran's
nuclear program get under way. The aide said Republicans would resist
further delay, but that the decision was in the hands of Democratic
Senator Tim Johnson, the committee's chairman, and Senate Majority Leader
Harry Reid, also a Democrat... While Congress has sought harsher
sanctions on Iran, the administration wants more time to give
negotiations over Iran's nuclear program a chance. The negotiations that
include six world powers are due to resume November 7-8 in Geneva...
'Tehran must know that Congress will not acquiesce to lifting sanctions
until they completely and verifiably dismantle their nuclear program,'
said Daniel Harsha, a spokesman for the House committee's
Democrats." http://t.uani.com/17NU5j1
Reuters:
"European governments have taken preliminary steps to re-impose
sanctions against Iran's main cargo shipping line, potentially
complicating a new diplomatic push to settle the dispute over Tehran's
nuclear program. Diplomats told Reuters the governments had agreed this
week to send letters to Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL)
and some of its subsidiaries to inform them of their intention. The
decision, not yet final, is part of a broader EU effort to counter a
number of court rulings annulling European sanctions such as these ones
in recent months. 'We will give notice to the companies that if they have
information that would affect the decision, they should submit it. It is
a notice,' one EU source said, speaking on condition of anonymity. The
source said the EU would use any response from the targeted companies to
decide how to formulate new sanctions, which would freeze the company's
assets in Europe... A new round of talks is scheduled for November 7-8 in
Geneva, and the EU in its letter to IRISL is asking for feedback before
November 5. The EU has in the past appealed against cases of sanctions
that have been quashed, for example after the General Court overturned
sanctions on Bank Mellat and Bank Saderat, among the biggest private
lenders in Iran, earlier this year. But diplomats say a growing body of
litigation makes it difficult to find legal bases for appeals,
complicating Europe's effort to exert economic pressure on Iran. 'There
is no chance for the appeals to win,' one EU diplomat told Reuters."
http://t.uani.com/1ap2FsC
Human Rights
Reuters:
"Iranian women guards struck the two daughters of reformist
opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavi and bit one of them after they
visited their father under house arrest, one of the daughters said on
Facebook late on Thursday. Mousavi, in his 70s and in poor health, has
been held under house arrest since early 2011 when he called for marches
in solidarity with 'Arab Spring' pro-democracy protests. The election of
relative moderate Hassan Rouhani as Iran's president in August and his
expressed wish to see all political prisoners released has led to hopes
that Mousavi, a former prime minister, and other reformists may soon be
freed... One of the guards attempted to search the women as they left,
Nargess Mousavi said. 'We were then met with a bizarre and filthy demand
by this prison guard,' she wrote on Facebook. 'We couldn't believe it at first,
but she unabashedly repeated her demand, even saying she wanted us to
take off our underwear.' 'To try and describe her treatment of us defies
basic human decency. After refusing to take off our underclothes, she
attacked us and smacked both my sister Zahra and myself in the ear with a
great deal of force. As I was trying to grab her hand to keep her from
attacking us any further, she stopped acting like a human being and bit
my entire wrist like a wild animal,' she wrote, attaching a picture of a
wrist with what appeared to be teeth marks." http://t.uani.com/1aiaYoc
Fox News:
"Four Iranian Christians were reportedly sentenced to 80 lashes for
drinking wine for communion, a shocking punishment meted out even as a
new United Nations report blasted the Islamic republic for its systematic
persecution of non-Muslims. The four men were sentenced Oct. 6 after
being arrested in a house church last December and charged with consuming
alcohol in violation of the theocracy's strict laws, according to
Christian Solidarity Worldwide. They were among several Christians
punished for their faith in a nation where converting from Islam to
Christianity can bring the death penalty. According to a new October UN
report by Ahmed Shaheed, UN special rapporteur on human rights in Iran,
such persecution is common, despite new President Hasan Rouhani's pledge
to be a moderate. 'At least 20 Christians were in custody in July 2013,'
Shaheed wrote. 'In addition, violations of the rights of Christians,
particularly those belonging to evangelical Protestant groups, many of
whom are converts, who proselytize to and serve Iranian Christians of
Muslim background, continue to be reported.'" http://t.uani.com/1ePBGqX
AFP:
"Iran on Thursday angrily rejected as 'unfair' and
politically-motivated a UN report which said the Islamic republic's human
rights record showed no sign of improvement. The report 'describes the
human rights situation in Iran in a completely unfair light and with
political motivations,' foreign ministry spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham said
in a statement carried by the state broadcaster. Iran will not allow
'such prejudiced reports to become the judging standard of its human
rights situation,' she said. In a report on Wednesday, special human
rights monitor for Iran Ahmed Shaheed condemned the high number of
executions in the country this year as well as tough restrictions on
freedom of speech, especially online. 'The human rights situation in the
Islamic Republic of Iran continues to warrant serious concern, with no
sign of improvement in the areas previously raised by the general
assembly or the various human rights monitoring mechanisms,' Shaheed said
in the report. Tehran has so far refused to let Shaheed visit the country
since being appointed in 2011, and has responded to only a handful of
official requests for information." http://t.uani.com/1a4RKQx
Bloomberg:
"Ali Aalaei, an editor at Iran's Etemaad daily, recalls how he tried
to publish a story about a dissident arrested in 2009 only to have it
pulled from the paper by editors who didn't want to alienate the censors.
Last month, 'we put him on our cover.' The article featured several
photographs of the anguished face of Mohsen Safaei Farahani, a reformist
politician and head of Iran's Football Federation, at his trial in 2010.
Farahani was sentenced to six years in prison for challenging the results
of the previous year's presidential election, won by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
amid charges of fraud and nationwide protests that led to a government
crackdown. 'We got a good reaction' to the piece, Aalaei said. 'Press
restrictions have lessened.' ... How far the liberalization will go isn't
clear. Authorities have curtailed media freedoms in the past after
allowing them to flourish for a period. After Mohammad Khatami's election
in 1997, dozens of new publications were launched, challenging the status
quo and demanding wider freedoms. Within a few years the gains were lost
as a conservative-dominated parliament passed laws making it easier to
prosecute journalists. By the time Khatami left office in 2005 more than
150 newspapers had been forced to close, according to Reporters Without
Borders. The opening under Rouhani, who took office in August, hasn't
gone as far as that era, when 'the press challenged the red lines of
power, areas that the leadership wasn't comfortable with,' said Aliasghar
Ramezanpoor, a former deputy culture minister under Khatami, who now
lives in the U.K. Current debates are mostly limited to topics permitted
by authorities, including the relationship with the U.S., he said." http://t.uani.com/1hfrASm
IHR:
"Four Sunni Muslim prisoners belonging to the Kurdish ethnic
minority in Iran are at imminent danger of execution. According to the
reliable sources there is increasing concern that these prisoners, who
are being held at the Ghezel Hesar Prison (near Tehran), might be
executed in the coming days." http://t.uani.com/1aJwEIh
Foreign Affairs
Reuters:
"Saudi Arabia's warning that it will downgrade its relationship with
the United States is based on a fear that President Barack Obama lacks
both the mettle and the guile to confront mutual adversaries, and is
instead handing them a strategic advantage... Behind its concerns was a
fear that its closest major ally had failed to respond robustly on Syria
and would give away too much in any negotiations it undertakes with Iran,
Riyadh's main Middle East foe. 'The Saudis are putting the pressure on so
that the Americans stop being so weak,' said a Saudi analyst close to
official thinking... For Riyadh, the prospect of a U.S. deal with Tehran
raises several unappetizing scenarios, including continued Iranian
domination over big Arab neighbors such as Syria and Iraq, and an
Israel-Iran war with Gulf Arab states caught in the middle." http://t.uani.com/17iAxJl
Opinion
& Analysis
Patrick Migliorini, David Albright, Houston Wood &
Christina Walrond in ISIS: "Since October 2012
when ISIS last published detailed breakout assessments about Iran's gas
centrifuge uranium enrichment program, Iran has steadily expanded the
number of IR-1 centrifuges installed at both its Fordow and Natanz gas
centrifuge plants. Additionally, it has started installing its more
advanced centrifuge model, the IR-2m centrifuge, at the Natanz Fuel
Enrichment Plant (FEP). These substantial changes merit updating our
previous breakout estimates of the time Iran would need to produce one significant
quantity (SQ) of weapon-grade uranium (WGU), taken as 25 kilograms of
WGU, using its existing safeguarded nuclear facilities and low enriched
uranium (LEU) stocks as of August 2013... As in the October 2012
iteration, the estimates in this report do not include the additional
time that Iran would need to convert WGU into weapons components and
manufacture a nuclear weapon. This extra time could be substantial,
particularly if Iran wanted to build a reliable warhead for a ballistic
missile. However, these preparations would most likely be conducted at
secret sites and would be difficult to detect. If Iran successfully
produced enough WGU for a nuclear weapon, the ensuing weaponization
process might not be detectable until Iran tested its nuclear device
underground or otherwise revealed its acquisition of nuclear weapons.
Therefore, the most practical strategy to prevent Iran from obtaining
nuclear weapons is to prevent it from accumulating sufficient nuclear
explosive material, particularly in secret or without adequate warning.
This strategy depends on knowing how quickly Iran could make WGU. We
evaluated a range of breakout scenarios based on the current enriching
IR-1 centrifuges and LEU stockpiles, total installed IR-1 centrifuges,
and a possible covert facility containing IR-2m centrifuges. This
analysis utilizes a modified form of the well-known four-step enrichment
process that was developed under A.Q. Khan for Pakistan's centrifuge
program and transferred to other countries, such as Iran. Using all four
steps, Iran would enrich natural uranium to 3.5 percent in step one, then
to 20 percent in step two, then to 60 percent in step three, and finally
to WGU in step four. This analysis considers the four-step, three-step,
and two-step process also with the use of existing LEU stockpiles. The
table lists the major estimated breakout times of the four scenarios
considered in this report. Today, Iran could break out most quickly using
a three-step process with its installed centrifuges and its LEU stockpiles
as of August 2013. In this case, Iran could produce one SQ in as little
as approximately 1.0-1.6 months, if it uses all its near 20 percent LEU
hexafluoride stockpile. Using only 3.5 percent LEU, Iran would need at
least 1.9 to 2.2 months and could make approximately 4 SQs of WGU using
all its existing 3.5 percent LEU stockpile." http://t.uani.com/1ePEeFF
Jacob Zenn in the
Combating Terrorism Center: "Since the Islamic
revolution in 1979, Iran has promoted 'Khomeinism' as one of its foreign
policy tools in the Muslim world. Despite Nigeria's geographic and
cultural distance from Iran, there is no region outside of the Middle
East where Iran's ideology has a greater impact than in northern Nigeria.
Nigeria's pro-Iranian Shi`a Muslim community was virtually non-existent
30 years ago but now comprises about five percent of Nigeria's 80 million
Muslims. In recent years, Iran's Quds Force and Lebanese Hizb Allah have
coordinated intelligence gathering on U.S. and Israeli targets in Nigeria
and engaged in weapons and drug trafficking in West Africa with
operatives drawn from Nigeria's Shi`a community. The Iranian government
also maintains ties with an influential religious group called the
Islamic Movement in Nigeria (IMN). The rhetoric and actions of the IMN's
leading imams and former members add fuel to the hot mix of Islamic
fundamentalist movements that emerged in northern Nigeria after the
1970s. This article analyzes the activities of the IMN, the Quds Force,
and Hizb Allah in Nigeria and West Africa. It finds that the Zaria,
Kaduna-based IMN's charismatic leadership and northern Nigeria's
attraction to revivalist Islam enables Iran to spread 'Khomeinism' in
Nigeria, including its antagonism towards the United States and the West.
Kaduna, which is the political center of northern Nigeria, has
experienced increased Muslim-Christian violence, unemployment, and
anti-Western sentiment since Nigeria restored democracy in 1999 and 12
northern states adopted modified versions of Shari`a (Islamic law). The
IMN exploits this extremist-prone environment to extend its message to
Shi`a and Sunnis, including members who joined movements such as Boko
Haram." http://t.uani.com/1c3Eu29
Intelligence and
Terrorism Information Center: "On October 10, the
Asr-e Iran website published extensive excerpts from an interview granted
by Iranian President Hassan Rowhani a few years ago to the author of the
book Young Politicians. The book, which included conversations with
several Iranian politicians, was published in 2007 by Ettelaat, in a
limited edition. The interview with Rowhani that appeared in the book
took place in 2004 or 2005, when he served as secretary of the Supreme
National Security Council and head of Iran's nuclear talks team. In the
interview, Rowhani provided biographical information about his childhood,
private life, studies at school, religious seminary and university, and
about his political activity before and after the Islamic revolution. In
the interview, Rowhani also spoke at length about the nuclear talks that he
was in charge of under the Khatami administration and defended the
conciliatory policy adopted by Iran in 2003. He also expressed his
well-known views in recent years on the nuclear talks." http://t.uani.com/1acdNef
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear
Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the
Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive
media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with
discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please
email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com
United Against Nuclear
Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a
commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a
regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons. UANI is an
issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own
interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of
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