Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Eye on Iran: Assad's Secret Oil Lifeline: Iraqi Crude from Egypt








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Top Stories
Reuters: "The Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad has received substantial imports of Iraqi crude oil from an Egyptian port in the last nine months, shipping and payments documents show, part of an under-the-radar trade that has kept his military running despite Western sanctions. Assad's government has been blacklisted by Western powers for its role in the two-and-a-half year civil war, forcing Damascus to rely on strategic ally Iran - itself the target of Western sanctions over its nuclear programme - as its main supplier of crude oil. A Reuters examination based on previously undisclosed commercial documents about Syrian oil purchases shows however that Iran is no longer acting alone. Dozens of shipping and payment documents viewed by Reuters show that millions of barrels of crude delivered to Assad's government on Iranian ships has actually come from Iraq, through Lebanese and Egyptian trading companies... The cache of documents describing the trade between March and May this year was shown to Reuters by a source on condition of anonymity. Many details were corroborated by a separate Middle Eastern shipping source with long-standing ties to the Syrian maritime industry. Publicly available satellite tanker tracking data, provided by Thomson Reuters, parent company of Reuters, was used to confirm the movements of ships." http://t.uani.com/JaRcTU

TIME: "Iranian President Hassan Rouhani says he wants to rebuild diplomatic relations with Western powers, even as he insists the country will 'never never give up our right to nuclear energy.' Rouhani's comments, in an op-ed in a German newspaper on Monday and accompanying Twitter messages on an account associated with him, came during a Christmas break in talks over Iran's nuclear program... 'We must now concentrate on the present and orientate ourselves towards the future,' read the messages on a closely followed Twitter account that has never been verified as belonging to Rouhani but has broken news of his policy positions and actions before. 'We'll never give up our right to #nuclear energy. But we're working towards removing all doubts and answer all reasonable questions.'" http://t.uani.com/1bomPzL

WashPost: "After suffering steep declines in trade starting in 2012, seaborne transfer of goods between Iran and Dubai is picking up again, highlighting the U.A.E.'s delicate balancing act in maintaining important commercial ties and satisfying its Western allies. A combination of economic factors in Iran - attributed to tough international sanctions over its contested nuclear activities - resulted in a decrease in trade with the U.A.E. from $24 billion in 2011 to $15 billion last year, threatening the livelihood of thousands of Iranian sailors. According to statistics published in November by Iran's customs authority, the U.A.E. is still the leading source of imports to Iran, accounting this year for just over 20 percent of all imports, followed by China and India... 'Things are much better for us since [Iranian President Hassan] Rouhani took office, and we believe they will continue to improve,' said Ahmad Hajjian, one of an estimated 40,000 Iranian sailors employed in the transport of goods between Iran and Persian Gulf ports." http://t.uani.com/1ld2oeG
   
Sanctions

WSJ: "The Pentagon's criminal investigations arm is probing one of the American military's largest suppliers in Afghanistan over allegations that it violated U.S. law by moving supplies through Iran, the Defense Department told lawmakers. Anham FZCO, a company based in Dubai and Virginia, won a contract in 2012 worth an estimated $8.1 billion to supply food and water to American forces inside Afghanistan, one of the largest of the 12-year war in the Central Asian country. An article in The Wall Street Journal in September, which prompted the investigation, disclosed that Anham relied on the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas and on Iranian supply routes to move steel, tractors and refrigeration panels into Afghanistan to build warehouses and other logistical centers. Anham's actions may have violated strict U.S. sanctions laws that prohibit American entities from conducting trade with Iran or Iranian companies by moving materials through the country, Obama administration officials said." http://t.uani.com/K2i09K

Reuters: "Qatar wants to help Iran to develop its share of the world's biggest gas field so both countries can reap the maximum long-term rewards, sources at state-run Qatar Petroleum (QP) say. The Gulf state has offered its support in response to a request from Iran amid signs that western sanctions might ease after it signed a deal in November that offers more transparency over its nuclear programme... 'After Iran signed the nuclear deal this has opened the door for us to help them with making more use of South Pars, and the plan is to give them advice on technology and exploring the geology of the field,' a QP source said." http://t.uani.com/1ifH2Qv

Syria Conflict

Reuters: "A Syrian state purchasing agency has issued a tender to buy 50,000 tonnes of flour with payment through an Iranian credit line, a tender document showed. It was the second time Syria had asked to buy food through Iran this month after asking for quantities of sugar, rice, flour, oils and various other commodities in a tender which closed on Dec. 17. Syria's General Foreign Trade Organisation (GFTO) said sellers must accept payment through an Iranian credit line under an agreement between the Commercial Bank of Syria and the Export Development Bank of Iran. The deadline for the flour tender is Jan. 6 and all offers should be submitted in euros on a cost and freight basis, the document showed. A Syrian trading source said offers submitted for rice and sugar in the tender that closed on Dec. 17 were currently being negotiated. 'Most of the offers made for the tender are being done by Iranian firms who are offering rice and sugar that are already available inside Iran,' one Syrian trading source said." http://t.uani.com/1gUl8SA

Domestic Politics

Reuters: "In the fall of 2009, two of Iran's most powerful entities teamed up to participate in the largest deal in the history of the country's stock exchange. The partners were the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran's elite military unit, and a multi-billion dollar business empire known as Setad that is controlled by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Guards and Setad formed a consortium to bid on a controlling stake in Telecommunication Co of Iran, or TCI, which had a near monopoly on landline telephone services. The partners won the stake for $7.8 billion, Iran's largest privatisation ever. The deal stirred up controversy when Iranian media reported that another bidder for TCI had been eliminated the day before the sale by the regulator, the Iranian Privatisation Organisation, or IPO. The man then heading up the IPO was Gholamreza Heydari Kord Zanganeh. One local news organisation dubbed him 'Mr. Privatisation.' Kord Zanganeh, Reuters has learned, soon got another job: In 2010, shortly after leaving office as privatisation tsar, he was appointed managing director of a giant holding company. That holding company belongs to one of the winners of the TCI stake - the Khamenei-controlled business empire, whose full name in Persian is Setad Ejraiye Farmane Hazrate Emam." http://t.uani.com/19noFGQ

Opinion & Analysis

UANI Advisory Board Member Olli Heinonen & Orde Kittrie in Arms Control & Regional Security for the Middle East: "Nearly a month since the six-month Joint Plan of Action with Iran was announced in Geneva on November 24, the deal has yet to go into effect. The two sides have not even agreed on a start date for implementing the deal. Meanwhile, Iran says it is continuing to advance its nuclear program. Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Reza Najafi, says that Iran will not begin implementing its Joint Plan of Action commitments, including its pledge to stop enriching uranium to 20 percent, until the still-unspecified start date. In the past, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has boasted repeatedly of how he used a 2003 set of nuclear negotiations with the West, for which he was Iran's lead negotiator, to buy time to advance Iran's program. History appears to be repeating itself. Rather than implementing the deal in good faith, Iran is playing games with it, manipulating the Joint Plan of Action to alter to Tehran's advantage both the circumstances on the ground and the terms of the deal itself. The start date delay is particularly worrisome because the Joint Plan of Action text appears to commit Iran to freezing its program at its magnitude not on November 24, but rather on that still-unspecified date of implementation. This includes Iran's commitments not to produce additional uranium enriched above 5 percent; not to 'make any further advances of its activities at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant, Fordow, or the Arak reactor;' and to convert to oxide any additional uranium enriched up to 5 percent. As of November 24, the day the Joint Plan of Action was announced, Iran was estimated to be less than 6 months away from breakout capability, the point at which it could dash to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one bomb so quickly that the International Atomic Energy Agency or a Western intelligence service would be unable to detect the dash until it is over. European Union officials say that they hope negotiations over implementation of the Joint Plan of Action will be concluded in time for the deal to go into effect in late January. A start date of late January will apparently leave Iran's uranium and plutonium production programs significantly closer to breakout capacity than if the Joint Plan of Action had been implemented on November 24. At the rates at which Iran was enriching in September and October 2013 (the most recent months covered by the IAEA's quarterly public reports), Tehran will, by December 24, have created at least an additional 230 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 5 percent and an additional 15 kilograms of uranium enriched to 20 percent. By January 24, Iran will have created at least an aggregate additional 460 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 5 percent and an aggregate additional 30 kilograms of uranium enriched to 20 percent. In addition, Iran is very likely continuing producing more centrifuges, and its uranium mines and milling facilities are almost certainly continuing to produce and process uranium ore. Iran may also be continuing to create fuel for the Arak reactor. And what if the Joint Plan is never implemented? Then Iran will apparently have succeeded in significantly advancing its uranium and plutonium production programs while negotiating with the P-5 plus 1, and won't have to roll any of it back. Continued Iranian advancement of its uranium and plutonium programs is particularly striking because Iran has, since 2006, been legally obligated by various UN Security Council resolutions to 'without further delay suspend... all enrichment-related' activities and 'all heavy-water related projects,' including construction of the Arak reactor.... At the same time Iran is declaring itself free of its actual Joint Plan of Action commitments until the start date is set and occurs, Iran is insisting that the U.S. must not take sanctions-related steps that clearly fall outside the U.S. commitments under the Joint Plan of Action, even if it were in effect. For example, the Joint Plan of Action states that the U.S. 'will refrain from imposing new nuclear-related sanctions.'  The Iranian Foreign Minister threatened that 'the deal is dead' if there was movement on the Senate bill, discussed last week, that would not have imposed new sanctions but merely specified what sanctions would be imposed on Iran if the deal collapses.  Then, Iran's diplomats stormed out of the negotiations in protest of the December 12 action, by the U.S. Treasury and State Departments, to designate additional companies and individuals for evading existing international sanctions against Iran. Neither the Senate bill nor the designations would have violated the Joint Plan of Action, even if it were in effect, which it is not. Ironically, the U.S. designations are in implementation of various Security Council resolutions which require UN member states to 'take the necessary measures to prevent the provision to Iran' of assistance, services, or financial resources related to its illicit nuclear program. Thus, Iran was protesting Washington's compliance with the U.S.'s international legal obligations while Iran continues to flagrantly violate its own international legal obligations, imposed by the Security Council, to suspend all enrichment-related and heavy water related activities." http://t.uani.com/1gUlc4J

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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