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Geneva's
Impact on Saudi Arabia
A briefing by Simon Henderson
December 17, 2013
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Simon Henderson is Baker fellow and director of the Gulf & Energy
Policy Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. A former journalist
with Financial Times and a consultant to corporations and
governments on the Persian Gulf, he regularly comments on Saudi political
dynamics, energy developments, and Pakistan's nuclear issues. He briefed
the Middle East Forum in a conference call on December 17, 2013.
With the prospect of an Iranian nuclear weapon looming over the Middle
East, the recent Geneva accord has heightened fears among the Gulf states
of Tehran's growing hegemony and Washington's naïve acquiescence in this
detrimental development.
There is a wide gap between Washington's and the Gulf states'
perceptions of the nuclear threat. While the former defines a nuclear
weapon as a detonated warhead, the latter see the nuclear threat in terms
of a cruder weapon that Iranian technology has already reached. As a
quasi-nuclear state with the potential to rapidly weaponize, Tehran has
already changed the balance of power in the region.
Both Jerusalem and Riyadh, equally alarmed by the Iranian nuclear
threat, would require more conclusive evidence of Tehran's real intentions
in order to sway international public opinion to take a firmer position.
Absent this, Israel's decision on a preemptive strike will have to weigh
the possible damage to its international standing, on the one hand, and the
ability of such a strike to dissuade Tehran from sustaining its nuclear
quest. For its part, Riyadh may seek to undermine the Geneva agreement
through alternative means, from funding insurrections and opposition groups
in Iran and Syria, to organizing acts of sabotage against Hezbollah,
Tehran's foremost Lebanese proxy.
More importantly, should Tehran gain nuclear power status, Riyadh will
seek its own nuclear capability, eyeing Pakistan as a potential supplier.
Nuclear proliferation would be disastrous for Middle Eastern stability and
an abysmal failure of US foreign policy, and is bound to lead to further
escalation whose consequences are too horrific to fathom.
Summary account by Marilyn Stern, Associate Fellow with the Middle
East Forum.
Related
Topics: Iran, Saudi Arabia
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