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Top Stories
LA Times:
"Three weeks after President Obama hailed a landmark deal to suspend
most of Iran's nuclear program for the next six months, the mood among
U.S. officials about the next round of negotiations has shifted from
elated to somber, even gloomy. 'I wouldn't say [chances of success are]
more than 50-50,' Obama said last week. U.S. officials are 'very
skeptical' that Iran will accept Western demands, said his lead
negotiator, Wendy R. Sherman. The shift, officials say, is the result of
a growing recognition of the compromises each side must make to resolve
the decade-old impasse over Western suspicion that Iran will someday try
to build nuclear weapons and the Iranian demand that the sanctions
crippling its economy be lifted. Problems already have emerged. Technical
talks in Vienna aimed at implementing the initial deal stopped Thursday
when Iranian negotiators unexpectedly flew back to Tehran, reportedly in
response to the Obama administration's decision to expand its blacklist
of foreign companies and individuals who have done business with Iran in
violation of sanctions." http://t.uani.com/1bQ387d
FP:
"U.S. intelligence officials believe that Iranian commandos took
part in a deadly attack on a compound of dissidents inside Iraq and then
spirited seven members of the group back to Iran, highlighting Tehran's
increasingly free hand inside Iraq in the wake of the U.S withdrawal from
the country. The Sept. 1 attack on a base called Camp Ashraf killed at
least 50 members of the Mujahedeen-e Khalq, or MEK, which had disarmed at
the request of the U.S. military after the American invasion of Iraq and
received explicit promises of protection from senior commanders. Instead,
gory videos released by the group showed that many of its members had
been shot with their hands tied behind their backs or in one of the
camp's makeshift hospitals. MEK leaders, backed by an array of U.S.
lawmakers, said Iraqi security forces carried out the attack. Baghdad has
long denied the charge, and U.S. officials have now concluded that a
small number of Iranian paramilitaries from its feared Islamic Revolution
Guards Corps helped plan and direct the assault on the camp. Three
officials, speaking to Foreign Policy for the first time, said gunmen
from two of Tehran's Iraqi-based proxies, Kitab Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl
al-Haq, then carried out the actual attack. The Iranian involvement in
the Ashraf massacre hasn't been reported before." http://t.uani.com/1cAhupU
Reuters:
"Iran says it will resume technical talks with six world powers in Geneva
on Thursday and Friday, a vital step in implementing a deal signed last
month which suspends key elements of Tehran's nuclear programme in
exchange for limited relief from sanctions. The talks between expert
teams may continue into Saturday and Sunday if required, Fars news agency
reported Iran's deputy chief negotiator, Abbas Araqchi, as saying. Last
Thursday Iranian negotiators interrupted technical talks in Vienna in
protest against the U.S. blacklisting of an additional 19 Iranian
companies and individuals under existing sanctions, saying the move was
against the spirit of the nuclear deal. U.S. officials maintain the
blacklisting does not violate the November 24 agreement and say they gave
Iran advance warning of the action." http://t.uani.com/1dmAgTn
Nuclear Negotiations
WSJ:
"Talks on implementing last month's interim nuclear deal between
Iran and six major powers are set to resume this week, two European
diplomats said Tuesday. On Thursday, implementation talks in Vienna were
put on hold after four days of negotiations when Iran reacted angrily to
a U.S. decision to expand its list of Iranian sanctions targets. Over the
last 48 hours, Western officials have worked to kick-start the talks. On
Monday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called Iranian Foreign
Minister Javad Zarif to work out a way forward in the talks. On Tuesday
morning, EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton met with Iranian Deputy
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Brussels to discuss the state of play.
Mr. Zarif said Monday that Iran would return to the negotiations even as
he hit out at what he called the U.S.'s 'improper' actions." http://t.uani.com/JB7SDO
Sanctions
Reuters:
"India's oil imports from Iran fell 34.8 percent in April-November
from a year ago despite a jump last month, giving New Delhi room to
import more till March and still win another waiver of U.S. sanctions...
India shipped in about 176,000 bpd in April-November, trade data made
available to Reuters shows. The world's fourth-largest oil importer
intends to buy up to an average 220,000 bpd of oil from Iran in the year
ending March 31, Oil Secretary Vivek Rae said last month... India's oil
shipments from Iran rose 13 percent in November from October to 219,700
bpd triggered by higher imports at Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals
Ltd (MRPL), the data shows. MRPL began receiving fully loaded suezmax
vessels at its recently commissioned single point mooring after getting
full cover from a local insurer. Last month, MRPL received two suezmaxes
of Iranian oil at its crude handling facility. It is not clear which
company reinsured the facility... Overall oil imports from Iran in
January-November fell by 38.5 percent to 196,200 bpd from 318,800 bpd in
the same period last year, the data shows." http://t.uani.com/1kUQg1B
Military
Matters
AP:
"Iran's state TV is saying it has inaugurated a powerful new
long-range radar system capable of detecting small drone aircraft. Gen.
Farzad Esmaili, head of Iran's air defense headquarters, told the station
that the system is named Arash, after a mythical Iranian hero. He said
the radar will work on all UHF, VHF and HF frequencies and will improve
Tehran's ability to engage in electronic warfare." http://t.uani.com/1fmqoKT
Human Rights
RWB:
"Hassan Rouhani, a moderate conservative candidate backed by the reformists,
was elected president with 51 per cent of the votes on 15 June. Despite
his promises of reform and despite the release of some prisoners of
conscience, including a few journalists and netizens, most of the news
providers who were in prison before his election - the majority of them
arrested in the wake of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's disputed reelection as
president in June 2009 - are still there. At least 76 journalists have
been arrested since the start of 2013, 42 of them since June. Seventeen
others have been given sentences ranging from one to nine years in
prison. Twelve newspapers and magazines have been suspended or forced to
stop publishing under pressure from the authorities. Inhuman treatment of
prisoners of opinion continues to be common. Many detainees are still
denied medical care despite being very ill or in poor physical and mental
health as a result of their imprisonment." http://t.uani.com/18QSrOt
AP:
"Sen. Bill Nelson said Tuesday he is willing to travel to Iran if it
would help find missing CIA contractor Robert Levinson who disappeared
while on a secret intelligence mission to Iran. In a speech on the Senate
floor, Nelson said he has spoken in recent days to Mohammad Khazaee, the
Iranian ambassador to the United Nations, and pleaded on humanitarian
grounds for details on Levinson, who disappeared in Iran in 2007." http://t.uani.com/18WdQZx
AFP:
"The European Union must build on the momentum of the landmark
nuclear deal with Iran and engage the Islamic republic on human rights, a
MEP visiting Tehran said Tuesday. EU Special Representative for Human
Rights Stavros Lambrinidis could 'discuss the terms of dialogue' about
improving rights with the Iranian authorities, Belgian Green MEP Isabelle
Durant told AFP. Durant is part of an eight-member European Parliament
delegation visiting Tehran. The lawmakers had said they would meet senior
Iranian officials, as well as broaching human rights issues. 'Once the
process has begun, it will be difficult to interrupt it,' Durant said of
the possible dialogue, stressing 'the window of opportunity will not stay
open for very long.'" http://t.uani.com/1i19Wnl
Foreign Affairs
Reuters:
"An Iranian businessman linked to a sprawling conglomerate
controlled by Iran's supreme leader is wanted by the United States for
allegedly trying to purchase hundreds of American-made assault rifles to
smuggle into Iran. Behrouz Dolatzadeh was arrested in the Czech Republic
last year and held in custody. He was convicted there in June of
attempted arms trafficking and attempting to violate sanctions on Iran.
But he was released in September after an appeals court overturned his
conviction and the United States failed to request his extradition,
according to interviews with Czech officials. A spokesman for the U.S.
Attorney's office in Phoenix, Arizona, where Dolatzadeh was indicted,
declined to comment on why no extradition request was filed. Dolatzadeh's
defense lawyer in Prague, Michal Marini, says he believes Dolatzadeh is
back in Iran. Iranian corporate filings show Dolatzadeh was appointed in
recent years to the boards of three tech companies connected to a massive
business empire controlled by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's top cleric
and most powerful man. The conglomerate's full name in Persian is Setad
Ejraiye Farmane Hazrate Emam." http://t.uani.com/1khaq8r
AP:
"Iran has canceled a planned $500 million loan to Pakistan to build
part of a pipeline to bring natural gas from the Islamic Republic. Deputy
Oil Minister Ali Majedi said Iran has no obligation to finance the Pakistani
side of the project and also doesn't have the money. Iran has already
invested over $2 billion to construct the Iranian side of the pipeline.
But there are serious doubts about how Pakistan could finance the $2
billion needed to construct the pipeline on its territory. Iran's former
president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had pledged the loan. Pakistan has welcomed
an Iranian offer to approach third parties, including European companies,
to finance the project." http://t.uani.com/1kURMku
Opinion &
Analysis
David Ignatius in
the WashPost: "Hossein Shariatmadari's business card
identifies him as the 'Supreme Leader's Representative' at Kayhan, Iran's
leading conservative newspaper. Listening to his unwavering advocacy of
Iran's revolutionary politics, you realize just how hard it will be to
reach the nuclear agreement that many Iranians I talked with here seem to
want. Shariatmadari says frankly that he doesn't believe in compromise
with the West. 'The identity of both sides is involved in this conflict,'
says the stern editor. 'It didn't just happen. It is structural. The
problem will be solved when one side gives up its identity, only
then.' The Kayhan editor is using his powerful voice to resist the
deal being negotiated by President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister
Mohammad Javad Zarif. He says bluntly that he doesn't think Iran should
have signed the six-month freeze negotiated last month in Geneva, and he
argues that Zarif misled Rouhani and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei when he
said the deal guaranteed Iran's right to enrichment of uranium. 'This
gentleman [Zarif] did not tell the truth,' he asserts. Can hard-liners
such as Shariatmadari and the leaders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard
Corps block a deal? The vanguard represented by Shariatmadari and the
Revolutionary Guard may hold the commanding heights... But the radical
roots of the regime are still intact. And Shariatmadari speaks for the
vanguard that has internalized the message of a massive mural on Karim
Khan Zand Boulevard, near his office, that shows founder Ayatollah
Ruhollah Khomeini with the words: 'We will never put down the flag you
raised.'" http://t.uani.com/1fmrEha
Amir Taheri in the
NY Post: "Less than a month after it was hailed as
'a great diplomatic coup,' the so-called Geneva accord to halt Iran's
nuclear ambitions seems to have come unstuck. The official narrative in
Tehran is that Iran signed nothing. 'There is no treaty and no pact,'
says Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham, 'only a statement of
intent.' Originally, Iran's official media had presented the accord as a
treaty (qarardad) but it now refers to a 'letter of agreement' (tavafoq
nameh). The initial narrative claimed that the P5+1 group of nations that
negotiated the deal with Iran had recognized the Islamic Republic's right
to enrich uranium and agreed to start lifting sanctions over a six-month
period. In exchange, Iran would slow its uranium enrichment and postpone
for six months the installation of equipment for producing plutonium, an
alternate route to making a bomb. A later narrative claimed that the
accord wasn't automatic and that the two sides had appointed experts to
decide the details ('modalities') and fix a timetable. On Sunday, an
editorial in the daily Kayhan, published by the office of 'Supreme Guide'
Ali Khameini, claimed that the 'six month' period of the accord was
meaningless and that a final agreement might 'even take 20 years to
negotiate.' It was, therefore, no surprise that Iran decided to withdraw
its experts from talks in Geneva to establish exactly how to implement
the accord. 'Now we have to talk about reviving the talks on modalities,'
says Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. Translated into plain
language, the new Iranian narrative is that talks about implementing an
accord that is not legally binding have collapsed and that, in the words
of the head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Agency, Ali-Akbar Salehi, there
is no change in the rhythm and tempo of Iran's nuclear project. 'Our
centrifuges are working full capacity,' Salehi said last Thursday. Having
claimed that he had halted Iran's nuclear project, Secretary of State
John Kerry might want to reconsider. He and his European colleagues, like
many of their predecessors, may have fallen for the diplomatic version of
the Three Card Monte played by the mullahs since they seized power in
1979. Khomeinist diplomacy has never aimed at reaching agreement with
anyone. Instead, the regime regards negotiations as just another weapon
in the jihad (holy struggle) for ensuring the triumph of 'true Islam'
across the globe. The regime can't conceive of give-and-take and
compromise even with Muslim nations, let alone a bunch of 'Infidel'
powers. If unable to impose its will on others, the regime will try to
buy time through endless negotiations. In Three Card Monte, suckers stay
in the game in the hope of getting it right next time. A similar hope
ensures outsiders' participation in Khomeinist diplomacy's version of the
trick." http://t.uani.com/1gG2oX1
Christian Emery in
the Majala: "In one important respect the interests
of the two factions coincide: the Guard's economic activities have been
hit hard by the effect of sanctions, and Rouhani has dedicated his
foreign policy to rolling them back. Rouhani has even publicly praised
the Guards' economic might and shows no inclination towards challenging
their creeping wealth. Instead, what is at stake is the source of that
power-political influence, access to the Supreme Leader, and ideological
leadership. And on this front, Rouhani has mounted an unprecedented
challenge to the IRGS. Back in September, he warned the Guards'
leadership, to their face, that they should keep out of politics. When
Khamenei immediately added that Iran's revolutionary vanguard had no need
to involve themselves in politics, it was a clear instruction for IRGC
hardliners to rein in attacks against the President. Another indication
of Rouhani's determination to reduce IRGC political influence is the lack
of representation it has in his cabinet. In stark contrast to the
previous administration, where 60% of the cabinet were IRGC commanders,
Rouhani's 18-strong cabinet contains just four. Rouhani recently backed
this up by purging members of the Guards from political positions in
Iran's provinces. Whether Rouhani succeeds politically will largely
depend on whether he continues to enjoy the patronage of the Supreme
Leader. That remains far from certain. Khamenei may well have become wary
of the growing power of the IRGC, particularly during the Ahmadinejad
years, but he knows their members are by and large fiercely loyal to him.
Equally, Khamenei's view of the West is far closer to Jaafari's than it
is to the likes of Zarif. He will want to see concrete steps from the
West towards removing sanctions in response to the concessions he has authorized.
Khamenei is also concerned that Rouhani might be pushing domestic reform
too far, and very publicly rejected attempts to liberalize cultural
policy. Even more worrying is the level of public expectation Rouhani
faces to deliver significant improvements in living standards. If he
fails to reverse Iran's economic woes-a daunting task-and the government
is stripped of its popular appeal, Khamenei is far less likely to
continue protecting his president from hard-line opponents. It's no
wonder, therefore, that Rouhani and his chief lieutenants reacted so
strongly to the threat of further Congressional sanctions that will
inevitably undermine their ability to sell a nuclear deal at home.
Iranian foreign policy has always been closely linked to the fortunes of
powerful domestic factions, but failure on the nuclear issue could now
frustrate Rouhani's attempt to reduce the political position of a
hard-line faction accustomed to wielding considerable influence." http://t.uani.com/19SuZk0
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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