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Reuters:
"Talks over Iran's nuclear program might be extended if disagreement
over remaining issues cannot be resolved by a November deadline, Iran's
top negotiator was quoted as saying on Friday, in the first hint an
extension was being contemplated. 'Iran and the P5+1 (major world powers)
are very serious on resolving the remaining disputes by November ... but
everything including an extension is possible if we cannot reach an
agreement,' Abbas Araqchi was quoted as saying by the semi-official Fars
news agency... Top diplomats of the United States, Iran and the European
Union will meet in Vienna next week to work on a comprehensive deal ahead
of a Nov. 24 deadline, aimed at curbing Tehran's sensitive nuclear
activities in exchange for gradually lifting sanctions against Iran.
'Iran and Western powers are very determined and serious to reach a
result. Issues like enrichment and lifting of sanctions will be discussed
in Vienna,' Araqchi said. 'We are still optimistic about meeting the
deadline.'" http://t.uani.com/1rqtIIm
WSJ:
"The sanctions relief, the Obama administration assured Congress,
would be limited and reversible in case talks fail. In the words of
Secretary of State John Kerry : 'Iran is not open for business.' Many
businesses seem to think otherwise. Consider the Europe-Iran Forum,
scheduled to be held in London on Oct. 15 and 16. The forum brings
together global law firms (Dentons Europe), business consultancies (FTI),
marketing firms (WPP), auctioneers (Sotheby's) and telecom providers
(MTN), among many others, to 'prepare and evaluate the post-sanctions
trade framework and investment opportunities' in Iran, according to its
brochure. Former U.K. Foreign Secretary Jack Straw and former French
Foreign Minister Hubert Védrine are attending, and the brochure carries a
blessing from Iranian President Hasan Rouhani 's chief of staff, Mohammad
Nahavandian... The brochure also carries multiple disclaimers that the
event complies with U.S. Treasury Department Office of Foreign Asset
Control (OFAC) regulations... Yet at least one of the businesses
represented on the Iranian side-the Middle East Bank-is on OFAC's list of
Specially Designated Nationals, which according to the U.S. Treasury
'includes individuals and companies owned or controlled by, or acting for
or on behalf of, targeted countries.' Others, meanwhile, are closely
associated with designated entities, even though they aren't designated
themselves." http://t.uani.com/1s9voK3
NYT:
"In a country that has virtually no tolerance for activism, Ghoncheh
Ghavami, 25, an Iranian-British national, provided a nearly textbook
example of how to get arrested in Tehran, activists say. Yet if Ms.
Ghavami, who began a hunger strike last week to protest her indefinite
detention, was guilty of anything, activists say, it was a naïve
enthusiasm that Iran was changing. Now, as Ms. Ghavami languishes in
Tehran's notorious Evin prison without charge, her case has raised anew
the question of how far the limits of personal expression and rights can
be stretched in the Iran of President Hassan Rouhani. The answer, many
here say, is not that far... Iran can also be deceptive, activists here
say, especially for people like Ms. Ghavami who spend most of their lives
abroad. The return to the motherland can feel warm and surprisingly safe,
but dangers lurk, especially for those who return with the idea of
promoting change." http://t.uani.com/1qjbjxQ
Sanctions Relief
Bloomberg:
"Iran's economy should continue to grow even if economic sanctions
remain in place, the country's central bank governor said. The economy is
projected to grow by 3 percent this year, Valiollah Seif, governor of the
Central Bank of Islamic Republic of Iran, said in an interview Oct. 10 in
Washington. 'The economic situation in Iran is on the mend,' he said,
speaking through an interpreter... 'The economic program we have right
now is based on the fact the sanctions will continue, so this is a given
assumption,' Seif said. 'Naturally, if sanctions are removed, we would
experience much better results.' Seif's forecasts are more optimistic
than projections released this week by the International Monetary Fund in
its World Economic Outlook. The IMF projects Iran will grow 1.5 percent
this year, followed by 2.3 percent in 2015." http://t.uani.com/1swWcp6
Fars (Iran):
"Three leading companies from South Korea and Taiwan preferred to
offer their quality polymeric products in Iran Mercantile Exchange (IME)
to open the gate to the country's lucrative market. Taita Chemical
Company and Formosa Plastics Corporation from Taiwan as well as Korea
Petrochemical Company were accepted by the IME to offer their products in
this market. Heavy Polyethylene grade 8001 Natural produced by the
Formosa Plastics Corporation, Normal Polystyrene grade N861 made by the
Taita Chemical Company, and Heavy Polyethylene grade P600BL from Korea
Petrochemical Company were the items which were presented in
petrochemical hall of the IME." http://t.uani.com/1qjhjH2
Trend:
"European shipping lines are still unable to resume operation in
Iran due to some problems, such as opening LCs. The international
sanctions imposed on Iran have made problems for foreign shipping lines
to operate in the country. Although different shipping lines from China,
South Korea, and India have announced readiness to resume operation in
Iran after easing of sanctions, but European liners are still unable to
resume operation in Iran, Iran's Mehr news agency reported on October 13.
Ali Jahandideh, the deputy director of the Ports and Maritime
Organization of Iran said before the easing of sanctions, ships had to
unload cargoes at ports in Turkey, the UAE, Georgia, and Oman, and then
the cargoes were transported to Iran. 'Shipping services at Iranian ports
are of lower quality than services in regional ports. This issue has also
disinclined large shipping lines to operate at Iranian ports,' he
said." http://t.uani.com/ZnORfP
Syria Conflict
Guardian:
"Iran's deputy foreign minister reportedly said on Saturday that his
country has exchanged messages with the US about the fight against
Islamic State (Isis) militants in Syria and Iraq. Hossein Amir
Abdollahian was quoted by Iranian media, in what would be a rare
confirmation of Iran-US discussions over Isis, as saying Iran had warned
Washington that Israel would be at risk should the US and its allies seek
to topple the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, while fighting the
extremist group." http://t.uani.com/ZB1lBi
Times of London:
"Iran is stepping up its arms shipments and training for Shia
militias in Syria, bolstering the regime of President Bashar al-Assad as
the proxy war consuming the country deepens despite the fight against
Islamic State... The US congress has approved $US500 million ($574m) in
aid, weapons and training for Syrian rebel groups. Saudi Arabia and
Jordan are to open their military bases to train 10,000 troops, who will
be filtered back into the conflict to strengthen the Free Syrian Army.
Worried about the impact this will have on its client state, Iran will
airlift missiles and mortar bombs to its proxy militias fighting the FSA
and Islamic State on separate fronts, as well as drones to monitor enemy
movement. The move was agreed at a meeting in Damascus last week between
Assad and Qassem Suleimani, Iran's spy chief, Iranian sources said. Iran
and Syria are convinced coalition airstrikes against Islamic State will
be followed by an attempt to oust Assad... Some 2000 troops from Iran's
Revolutionary Guard have been deployed in Syria, along with a host of
commanders and support staff who oversee bands of Shia fighters from
Lebanon, Pakistan and Afghanistan." http://t.uani.com/1w1y6C0
Islamic State
Press TV (Iran):
"Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei says
efforts by the US and its allies against the ISIL Takfiri terrorists are
not genuine. 'If anyone fuels the fire in this regard, he or she will
definitely be helping sinister America and Britain which are the creators
of the ISIL and al-Qaeda,' the Leader further said in a meeting with
people from different walks of life on Monday. Ayatollah Khamenei urged
Muslims not to get involved in any move that would play into enemies'
hands." http://t.uani.com/1v3d4EY
Human Rights
Guardian: "Despite its social stigma, prostitution is a burgeoning
problem in major Iranian cities, where a public reluctance to recognize
and discuss the issue means that the trade operates in deep illegality.
The lack of regulation raises sex workers' risk of exposure to violence,
human trafficking and sexually transmitted diseases. Public health and
non-governmental organizations run a handful of rehabilitative programs
for prostitutes, but a majority of sex work transpires under the radar of
authorities... The average age range of sex workers in Iran has fallen to
12-18, down from 20-30 just one decade before, according to a 2011 report
by the Iranian sociological association. More recent studies from Shahid
Beheshti University confirm this pattern: Over a period of seven years,
the average age fell to below 20, says staff researcher Majid Abhari.
According to his estimates, some 300-600 thousand female prostitutes work
in major urban centers like Tehran and Mashhad." http://t.uani.com/1vXqBND
Domestic
Politics
Trend:
"Giant Iranian engineering company Khatam al-Anbia Construction Base
Headquarters is co-operating with over 5,000 private contractors, the
base commander Brigadier General Ebadollah Abdollahi said. He added that
the company employs over 135,000 people, Iran's Fars news agency reported
Oct. 12. Khatam al-Anbia Construction Base Headquarters is controlled by
the Islamic Revolution's Guards Corps (IRGC)." http://t.uani.com/1tVGpN9
Foreign Affairs
Fars (Iran):
"A Lebanese daily released a report on the details of Iran's
promised military gift to Lebanon, although no independent source in
Tehran or Beirut has yet confirmed the report. 'The Islamic Republic of
Iran has specified the types of equipment it can present to the Lebanese
army in a letter to the foreign ministry and the foreign ministry has
submitted the letter to (Defense Minister Samir) Moqbel,' a report by
al-Akhbar said on Saturday. 'Iran is ready to deliver a number of TOW
(anti-tank) missiles and its special rockets, night goggles, 120-mm mortar
rounds, and munitions, 60-mm artillery and its shells, munitions of T55
and T62 tanks, munitions of 155-mm cannon and DShK (Dushka) and its
munitions,' the letter said... Last week, Secretary of Iran's Supreme
National Security Council (SNSC) Ali Shamkhani announced that Iran plans
to gift a military tool or weapon to the Lebanese army in the near
future. 'The gift will be sent in the near future and it will be
delivered to the Lebanese defense minister during his upcoming visit to
Iran,' Shamkhani said after meeting Lebanese Prime Minister Tammam Salam
in Beirut late in September. A few days later, senior officials in Beirut
said Iran had presented a list of military tools and weapons to be gifted
to the Lebanese army to help the Arab country in its fight against
terrorism." http://t.uani.com/1sx3I3g
RFE/RL:
"A fleet of Russian warships berthed in the Caspian port of Enzali
in Iran on October 13. Russian Navy ships 'Daghestan' and 'Grad Sviazhsk'
were welcomed by local Iranian officials and Russia's Ambassador to
Tehran, Levan Dzhagarian. The vessels from Russia's Caspian Fleet came to
Iran after holding joint exercises with two Kazakh warships last
week." http://t.uani.com/1sx8rC5
Opinion &
Analysis
UANI President
Gary Samore interviewed in CFR:
There have been
several U.S.-Iranian bilateral talks about the Iranian nuclear program,
but we have no agreement in sight and the negotiations are supposed to
end on November 24. How would you describe the overall U.S.-Iranian
relationship?
It's become very clear that [President Hassan] Rouhani is on a tight
leash. People had hoped that he would be able to deliver a nuclear
agreement and that that would open the door to much broader and better
relations with Washington. But he's under very strict constraints in
terms of what he's prepared to agree to and it's clear that that's very
short of what the United States needs for a nuclear deal. So right now
people are anticipating that there won't be a comprehensive agreement at
the end of November...
Do you sense that
there is any major compromise in the U.S. nuclear position to get Iran
aboard to strengthen the alliance against ISIS?
I don't think so. It's a standard Iranian gambit to ask for flexibility
on the nuclear issue so they will cooperate on some other issue, whether
it's Afghanistan or now fighting ISIS in Iraq, but the U.S. position is
that Iran has as much of an interest as the United States does in
defeating ISIS, so I don't think Washington is prepared to pay Iran to do
something that it should do in its own interest.
Let's talk about the
nuclear talks themselves. What's holding up an agreement?
The central issue in these talks has always been Iran's capacity to
produce weapons-grade material, and that's determined by the scope and
scale of their enrichment program, which is translated into technical
details, like the numbers and types of centrifuges, stockpile of
low-enriched uranium, limits on research and development, and so forth.
And as the negotiators have gotten into those details, it's really become
clear that the two sides are extremely far apart. The United States is
demanding that Iran significantly reduce its current stockpile of
centrifuges.
Which is about ten
thousand?
It's about ten thousand that are operating. They have an additional ten
thousand or so that are actually installed but not operating, and the
United States, at least in its opening position, is seeking to reduce
those ten thousand to about 1,500, which would be more consistent with
Iran's needs to produce fuel for its research reactors. Secondly, the
United States wants to keep those limits in place for as long as twenty
years. The Iranians, on the other hand, are under very strict
instructions from the Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] not to
agree to any reduction in their current enrichment capacity, and to
insist on being able to build up to a much larger industrial scale
capacity by 2021. Given that huge difference and little evidence of
flexibility on either side, it's hard to see how a comprehensive agreement
can be reached at the end of November...
Iran constantly claims
publicly they have no interest whatsoever in nuclear weapons, yet why do
they need so many centrifuges?
They argue that they need to have a large number of centrifuges to
produce low-enriched uranium fuel for the Bushehr nuclear power plant.
Right now, the power plant is fueled by the Russians who have a contract
through 2021 and the Russians are clearly willing and happy to sell fuel
for the lifetime of the reactor. The Iranians argue that they can't trust
the Russians to deliver on the fuel, and therefore they need to have an
indigenous ability to produce low-enriched uranium. That argument-the
need for nuclear energy independence-unfortunately has become a very
popularly accepted narrative inside Iran, but frankly outside of Iran,
nobody believes that that's the primary purpose of having a large-scale
enrichment program. Instead, it would give Iran the ability to quickly
produce large amounts of weapons grade uranium if they decided in the
future to build nuclear weapons, or it would provide a very effective
cover for them to try to build secret enrichment facilities, which of
course they have done in the past to build nuclear weapons. So there's
this deeply competing narrative between the Iranians, who say that they
need large-scale enrichment for their peaceful nuclear energy program,
and the view of the United States and everybody else that that's just a
pretext, a ruse to develop a nuclear weapons option.
Do you think the
Iranians really want to keep a nuclear weapons option in their pocket?
Absolutely. The Supreme Leader, given his world view, thinks that Iran
needs to have a nuclear weapons option, if not nuclear weapons
themselves, both to defend Iran against the Great Satan [the United
States], and all the little Satans, and also to assert Iran's dominance
in the region. As long as the Supreme Leader Khamenei has been in power,
he's seen the acquisition of nuclear weapons capability as a key element
of Iran's foreign policy, and that's very unlikely to change as long as
he's in charge. http://t.uani.com/1tVJhd6
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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