Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Eye on Iran: Russia, Iran and Turkey Meet for Syria Talks, Excluding U.S.


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Russia, Iran and Turkey met in Moscow on Tuesday to work toward a political accord to end Syria's nearly six-year war, leaving the United States on the sidelines as the countries sought to drive the conflict in ways that serve their interests. Secretary of State John Kerry was not invited. Nor was the United Nations consulted. With pro-government forces having made critical gains on the ground, the new alignment and the absence of any Western powers at the table all but guarantee that President Bashar al-Assad will continue to rule Syria under any resulting agreement, despite President Obama's declaration more than five years ago that Mr. Assad had lost legitimacy and had to be removed... At the meeting, Russia, Iran and Turkey agreed to "the Moscow Declaration," a framework for ending the Syrian conflict... Iran's presence is significant, as well. The original evacuation deal was between Russia and Turkey and involved only Aleppo. But Shiite militias loyal to Iran and fighting on the side of Mr. Assad prevented the first buses from leaving, demanding that the deal be renegotiated to include people from two Shiite villages in Idlib Province. Iranian officials have boasted about their fighters' role in Aleppo and that of the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah, which helped besiege eastern Aleppo before the evacuation deal. "As Russia has allied with Iran in the region, it is the coalition of Iran, Russia and Hezbollah that has caused Aleppo's liberation, and very soon Mosul will also be liberated," Yahya Rahim Safavi, a military aide to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, said last week. "It shows that this coalition has an upper hand and the U.S.'s president-elect has to face its weight."

"[Trump officials] are going to look at the flight records and say, as per the letter of the law, we are not going to allow an American company to sell airplanes to companies that use airplanes to supply terror," a senior congressional aide who works closely on the issue told TWS. "There are more ways to [unravel the sale] than there are ways to keep it," the aide said. "I would be shocked if any actual Boeing planes ever touched down in Iran." Lawmakers say they have not received guarantees from the Obama administration that Iran Air has stopped engaging in illicit activities, despite the nuclear deal allowing sales to the airline. Iran experts told TWS that the Trump administration would likely discover sanctionable pursuits in its review of the airline's activities, which would stymie the sale.

Iran and Russia are sharing a base in Syria to help coordinate their support for President Bashar Assad's forces, a top security official in Tehran said Tuesday... "We have a shared base in Syria where Iran, with Russia's help, does advisory work to help the Syrian army and the resistance forces," said Ali Shamkhani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, quoted by Tasnim news agency. He said Russia and Iran worked closely together "to design the military aspect of the fight against terrorism" and also coordinated on "the use of Iran's airspace."

IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

Iran's foreign minister has told the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Majlis that the JCPOA joint commission meeting will be held on January 10. Committee spokesman Hossein Naqavi Hosseini said on Monday evening that Zarif had briefed the MPs on the recent developments regarding the nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, IRNA reported. Zarif had also said the call for the JCPOA meeting comes along with the presidential orders to take action against the extension of the Iran Sanctions Act for another ten years.

SANCTIONS RELIEF

Rolls-Royce sold equipment to Iran for decades, a confidential company memo reveals, exploiting a series of loopholes in US sanctions to avoid breaking the law. The Iranian government amassed the world's largest collection of the British engineering group's signature turbine and booked millions of pounds of orders each year, according to a briefing drafted in 2009 for the company's then chief executive, Sir John Rose. Trading in Iran appears to have carried on despite the enormous political risk of being seen to avoid US sanctions. A quarter of Rolls-Royce's entire £14bn revenue is generated in the US, with much of that reliant on military contracts. The company signed orders worth $224m (£181m) from the Department of Defense in the first half of 2015 alone... Between 1975 and 1995, state-owned oil and gas firms in Iran procured almost 100 Rolls-Royce industrial turbines, according to the memo. By 2009, 69 Avon turbines had been acquired by the National Iranian Oil Company, which is cited in US sanctions... The company generated £69m of orders in the country between 2001 and 2009, according to the briefing, and also signed a "technical assistance agreement" to support a facility that carried out repairs and overhauls on about 10 turbines each year.

British engineering company Rolls-Royce denied a report in The Guardian newspaper on Wednesday that it had in the past sold equipment to Iran by exploiting a series of loopholes in U.S. sanctions. "Rolls-Royce refutes any accusation that it has traded 'in secret' in Iran or that it circumvented U.S. sanctions," said a Rolls-Royce spokesman in an emailed statement. "We conduct business in all countries, including Iran, in accordance with all relevant UK, EU or other national sanctions and export control regulations. This includes applying for export licenses, when they are required, and complying strictly with their terms and conditions."

SYRIA CONFLICT

"Where are you, Oh Arabs, Oh Muslims, while we are being slaughtered?" An old man's cry, in a video posted online from Aleppo's ruins, poses an uncomfortable question for the mainly Sunni Muslim Arab states backing rebels fighting President Bashar al-Assad and his allies Iran and Russia. For Saudi Arabia, locked in a regional struggle with Iran, Assad's capture of the rebel haven reflects a dangerous tilt in the Middle East balance of power toward Tehran. Dismayed by this boost to Iranian ambitions for a "Shi'ite crescent" of influence from Afghanistan to the Mediterranean, Riyadh is determined to reverse Tehran's gains sooner or later... The monarchies are frustrated with President Barack Obama's light touch approach to the war - relying on local fighters instead of large U.S. military deployments or missile strikes. President-elect Donald Trump poses an intriguing contrast.

TERRORISM

An Iranian Kurdish armed opposition group accused Iran on Wednesday of a bombing that killed five of its fighters and an Iraqi Kurdish policeman in northern Iraq. A twin explosion late on Tuesday hit the offices of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI) in Koy Sanjaq, east of Erbil, the capital of the autonomous Iraqi Kurdish region. After the first blast, a second, larger one went off as members of the group and police rushed to the spot, PDKI central committee member Asso Hassan Zadeh told Reuters. "There is no doubt that it's the Iranian regime," Hassan Zadeh said, speaking at the fighters' funerals. "But in any case we will not stop our struggle." In June and July, PDKI fighters fought Iranian Revolutionary Guards in northwestern Iran, with several killed on both sides. Hassan Zadeh said Iranian forces had initiated those clashes.

HUMAN RIGHTS

Prof Homa Hoodfar is a dual national Canadian Iranian who was held by Iranian intelligence and detained for over 100 days at Tehran's Evin prison earlier this year. Recalling her time in captivity, she tells Stephen Sackur: "They told me 'you're going to be here 10 to 15 years and by then you'll be dead so we'll send your body back to Canada in a casket'". They had sought to make her and others cry but they failed in her case because "I had accepted my fate". As a professor of anthropology she tells how she turned the tables on them and started to observe their methods.

OPINION & ANALYSIS

When the JCPOA was concluded, every party, including the Iranian negotiators, was aware of the sanctions stipulated under the ISA. As such, they discussed the issue extensively and based on Annex II of the JCPOA, Iran agreed that the US administration would waive the enforcement of many ISA provisions that prevented Iran from conducting business with the world. Upon confirmation of Iran's full implementation of its initial nuclear-related obligations on January 16, 2016, the Obama administration waived the right to implement sanctions for investment and involvement in Iran's gas, oil, and petrochemical industries. Sanctions were also waived to allow for the sale of gasoline to Iran and associated services to Iran's energy sector, such as transportation of Iranian crude oil. In other words, the situation remains the same today as it did when the nuclear accord was signed. The extension of the ISA still grants authority to the US administration to waive the sanctions under the ISA and the JCPOA commits the US to waiving the enforcement of those sanctions. Nothing has changed. As Kerry rightly said in his statement, "Extension of the Iran Sanctions Act does not affect in any way the scope of the sanctions relief Iran is receiving under the deal or the ability of companies to do business in Iran consistent with the JCPOA. The Iran Sanctions Act was in place at the time the JCPOA was negotiated and has remained so throughout the deal's implementation."

The UK-based #FreeNazanin campaign gathered outside Downing Street on December 19 to call for British Foreign Mininster Boris Johnson to take immediate and direct action to release Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, who has been detained in Iran since early April 2016. Zaghari-Ratcliffe's husband Richard Ratcliffe and family, members of the Belsize community choir conducted by opera singer Chelsea Hart, and dozens of supporters from the Ratcliffes' neighborhood and across the capital, as well as Amnesty International activists, took part in the #carolsforNazanin event outside Downing Street, where both the prime minister and the chancellor of the exchequer have their official residence. Carolers carried candles and displayed #FreeNazanin and other posters, many of them calling for Foreign Minister Johnson to "buck up" and help secure the charity worker and mother's release. Also at the event was Iranian-Canadian academic Homa Hoodfar, who was detained in Iran in June and held in Evin Prison until her release on September 26. "The second week I was there, I shared a cell with Nazanin for one night," she told IranWire. "But they separated us once they knew that there were two political prisoners in the same cell. I did see her on other occasions, especially when they were transporting us to court. We were in the same car, although we were not allowed to talk." Hoodfar expressed anger and dismay at the continued incarceration of Nazanin, a charity worker -  as well as at the hypocrisy of Iranian authorities. "For a state that claims that family is so important, and that family morality is so important, to treat a young mother in this way is really sad and immoral," she said.






Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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