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TOP STORIES
President Donald Trump said Thursday his
administration has put Iran "on notice," echoing comments
from his top national security adviser that the U.S. will act against
Iran unless it stops testing ballistic missiles and supporting Houthi
rebels in Yemen. Trump and his National Security Adviser, Michael
Flynn, didn't elaborate on what retaliatory actions the U.S. could
pursue. Trump tweeted, "Iran was on its last legs and ready to
collapse until the U.S. came along and gave it a life-line in the
form of the Iran Deal: $150 billion." He also tweeted,
"Iran has been formally PUT ON NOTICE for firing a ballistic
missile. Should have been thankful for the terrible deal the U.S.
made with them!" Flynn on Wednesday forcefully denounced Iran's
behavior in his first public remarks since Trump took office. He
accused Iran of threatening U.S. allies and spreading instability
throughout the Middle East while faulting the Obama administration
for doing too little to stop the Islamic Republic. "As of today,
we are officially putting Iran on notice," Flynn said from the
White House podium... Senior Trump administration officials said they
were actively considering a "range of options" including
economic measures and increased support for Iran's regional
adversaries.
Former Sen. Joe Lieberman, an opponent of the Iran
nuclear deal, predicts a "sea change" for US policy toward
Iran, but hopes that President Donald Trump doesn't rip up the deal
entirely. Lieberman, who is the head of an advocacy group called
United Against Nuclear Iran that opposes the deal, said Trump's
presidency might be a good opportunity for the US to renegotiate the
2015 agreement with Iran that places restrictions on its nuclear program
for a period of time in exchange for sanctions relief. "When it
comes to Iran and relations with the United States, the Trump
election represents a sea change from the Obama administration, which
negotiated the Iran nuclear agreement, did everything it could to
defend it and protect it, did everything it could to really encourage
a certain number of banks and others to do business in Iran, to a new
president who's castigated this agreement as a terrible agreement,
has even threatened to tear it up," Lieberman, who spent 24
years in the Senate and chaired the Homeland Security Committee, told
Business Insider in an interview last week. Lieberman would like to
see the deal renegotiated.
Iran has tested a cruise missile called
"Sumar" that is capable of carrying nuclear weapons in
addition to test-firing a medium-range ballistic missile on Sunday,
German newspaper Die Welt reported Thursday, citing unspecified
intelligence sources... The newspaper said the Sumar cruise missile
was built in Iran and traveled around 600 km in its first known
successful test. The missile is believed to be capable of carrying
nuclear weapons and may have a range of 2,000 to 3,000 km, the paper
said, citing intelligence sources. Cruise missiles are harder to
counter than ballistic missiles since they fly at lower altitudes and
can evade enemy radar, confounding missile defense missiles and
hitting targets deep inside an opponent's territory But the biggest
advantage from Iran's point of view, a security expert told Die Welt,
was that cruise missiles are not mentioned in any United Nations
resolutions that ban work on ballistic missiles capable of carrying
nuclear weapons.
UANI IN THE NEWS
A U.S. advocacy group, United Against Nuclear Iran,
said international businesses are confused and uncertain about Iran's
behavior and the American government's reaction. David Ibsen, UANI's
president, said it has discouraged its contacts from trying to
establish new deals with Iran. In an interview with VOA Persian,
Ibsen said companies are asking whether Iranian missile tests will
result in a re-imposition of financial sanctions on Tehran.
"They also ask, if a company has dual-national citizens (in
Iran), will they be kidnapped or held incommunicado by the Iranian
regime? Will they be doing business with front entities for the
regime or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps? All these risks are
very real, and companies have taken our warnings to heart,"
Ibsen said.
NUCLEAR & BALLISTIC MISSILE
PROGRAM
A ballistic missile launched by Iran on Sunday was
North Korean in construction or design, according to the Pentagon.
The missile test, which ended in failure, was not a violation of
2015's Iranian nuclear deal, but arguably was in violation of a U.N.
Security Council resolution... As pointed out by arms control expert
Jeffrey Lewis on Twitter, the Pentagon identified the July 2016
missile as a locally produced version of the Musudan, a North Korean
intermediate-range missile. Also known as the Hwasong-10, the missile
is allegedly derived from an obsolete Soviet Cold War missile, the
R-27 Zyb.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
A top aide to Iran's supreme leader blamed the
"inexperienced" Trump administration for apparent U.S.
threats and vowed his country would continue testing ballistic
missiles. Ali Akbar Velayati, who advises Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on
foreign affairs, said that Iran had not breached a nuclear deal
reached with six major powers in 2015 or a U.N. Security Council
resolution that endorsed the accord... "This is not the first
time that an inexperienced person has threatened Iran," Velayati
said. "Iran is the strongest power in the region and has a lot
of political, economic and military power .. America should be
careful about making empty threats to Iran." He added:
"Iran will continue to test its capabilities in ballistic
missiles and Iran will not ask any country for permission in defending
itself."
CONGRESSIONAL ACTION
A year after the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA) went into effect and just a week and a half into Donald
Trump's presidency, a bipartisan pair of top US Congressmen on
Wednesday called for more stringent enforcement of the nuclear deal
with Iran. Taking part in a panel discussion on Capitol Hill
organized by The Israel Project (TIP), Republican Ed Royce of
California and Democrat Eliot Engel of New York laid out their views
of what US policy toward the Islamic Republic should be moving
forward. Royce, the chairman of the House Committee on Foreign
Affairs, said the Trump administration should have the Treasury
Department issue a warning that if Iran continues to misbehave - with
acts such as this past weekend's ballistic missile test - the US will
bar global banks from conducting dollar transactions with their
Iranian counterparts. "We have to put them on notice,"
Royce said.
BUSINESS RISK
Reports coming out of Iran suggest that Apple has
allegedly started removing iOS apps originating from the country's
startups and developers. Prior to this, Apple had, in a limited
manner, opened up its App Store to Iranians in September 2016 and
appeared to be gradually lifting some of the limitations,
periodically, since then. According to credible tech news site
Techrasa, the biggest Iranian e-commerce service, Digikala, which has
millions of users, had its app removed from the App Store just a few
days ago. While there is no official App Store available for the
territory of Iran, many companies registered their apps as being
outside of Iran to be able to get onto the store.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
Leading Iranian vehicle manufacturer Iran Khodro
Company (IKCO) and PSA Peugeot accomplished one-fifth of a 2016 deal
by so far investing €100 million ($106.9 million) in a joint company
in Iran, said an official. Each of the two companies has invested €50
million ($53.4 million) in the factory whose first product, Peugeot
2008 will be out by March, Hashem Yekke Zare, CEO of IKCO, was quoted
as saying in an Iran Daily News report, citing Fars News Agency. The
two companies from Iran and France signed a contract on June 21,
2016, to launch a joint company in Iran to produce Peugeot cars, it
said. Zare further noted that Iran's share of the parts that will be
used will initially be 40 per cent and increase to 70 or 80 per cent
in two years.
The production line of a newly formed joint venture
between Volkswagen and the Iranian automotive company Mammut Khodro
will be launched by the end of the current Iranian fiscal year that
ends in March, according to the company's director. The CEO and owner
of Mammut Group, Mehrzad Ferdos told reporters, "A deal
has been concluded between Mammut and the German automaker
Volkswagen," asrekhodro.com a local automotive website reported
at the weekend. "The two company's first joint production line
will be launched by the end of the current Iranian year."
Several VW models will be produced through the JV, he said but he did
not name any models.
SAIPA Diesel a subsidiary of SAIPA, Iran's second
largest automaker, will start production of three new models of Volvo
FM trucks in the coming months. The company has been producing
several models of Volvo trucks in recent years. But according to the
local automotive website, Persian Khodro, production of the FM series
was halted five years ago.
Iran Khodro (IKCO) CEO Hashem Yekehzare announced that
his company as the biggest car manufacturer in the Middle East has
finalized five contracts with German automaker Mercedes Benz.
"Iran Khodro and Mercedes-Benz have signed three contracts and
two other contracts have been fully finalized," Yekehzare told
reporters on the sidelines of a ceremony in Tehran on Saturday. He
said that the details of the contracts between Iran Khodro and the
German carmaker will be publicized soon.
Iran has signed billions of dollars in contracts since
the easing of sanctions in January 2016 to develop its electricity
generation infrastructure, a top energy official says. "We have
signed around €10 billion ($10.7 billion) worth of agreements with
German, Russian, Chinese, South Korean and Turkish companies for the
construction of new power plants," Alireza Daemi, the deputy
energy minister for planning and economic affairs, was quoted as
saying by Mehr News Agency. The official described the preliminary
agreement with Turkish energy and construction company Unit
International as one of the biggest of its kind after the
international restrictions were eased and hoped the ministry will
finalize the deal before the end of the Iranian fiscal year in
March... "The deal with Unit International is an agreement in
principle ... it is expected to be approved as a full and final
contract by the yearend," the deputy minister said. He also
sought to allay concerns over the role of domestic contractors in
future energy projects. "The ministry will ensure that at least
50% of operations in all new power plant contracts, including with
Unit International, will be carried out by domestic companies,"
he said, underlining the transfer of knowhow as a key requirement on
the part of multinationals wanting to work in Iran.
PROXY WARS
The United Arab Emirates said Thursday it summoned the
Iranian envoy to protest Tehran's alleged arming of Shiite Huthi
rebels in Yemen, including providing drones, in their fight against
the government. The foreign ministry handed the charge d'affaires a "protesting
memorandum concerning Iran's illegal arming" of Huthi rebels,
according to state news agency WAM. It said that "Iranian
weapons, including unmanned drones targeted recently by the Arab
coalition, represent a flagrant violation" of UN Security Council
resolutions.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
As rescue workers searched for people trapped beneath
the rubble of the collapsed Plasco trade centre in Tehran, the mayor
endured a storm of criticism. The tragedy last month, which killed 16
firefighters, shocked Iranians from all walks of life. But supporters
of Iran's pro-reform factions were particularly vocal, accusing
Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf of mismanagement and calling for his
resignation. Now regime hardliners believe Mr Qalibaf's critics had
an ulterior motive related to the upcoming presidential election. The
mayor came second to Hassan Rouhani, the centrist president, in 2013
elections, and there has been speculation that he could challenge him
again at the May vote as a candidate for hardliners. Mr Qalibaf told
parliament this week the criticism directed at him was part of
"politically motivated sabotage", Iranian media reported...
The attacks and counter-attacks underline how power struggles between
reformers backing Mr Rouhani and hardliners trying to unseat him are
becoming increasingly ugly in the lead up to the poll.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
As a candidate, Donald Trump said he would "tear
up" the Iran nuclear deal once elected. Many of us in the Senate
strongly opposed this deal on substance - it provides the world's
largest state sponsor of terrorism a pathway toward to nuclear
weapons inside of a decade - and also on process. The Obama
administration sought the approval of the U.N. Security Council, but
essentially ignored the constitutional role of the Senate in seeking
to finalize the deal as an executive agreement, not a treaty. As a
result, President Trump would be within his rights and authority to
undo the deal through executive action, particularly as Iran
continued to show that it has no intention of abiding by the deal by
launching yet another ballistic missile on Sunday. But there is a
potentially better alternative than unilaterally disavowing the deal:
Let it fail on its own by vigorously enforcing it.
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