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The Trump administration announced new Iran-related
sanctions on Tuesday intended to show its toughened stance toward the
country despite having grudgingly recertified Iran's compliance with
the 2015 nuclear deal. The sanctions, jointly announced by
departments of State, Treasury and Justice, designated 18 individuals
and entities that the administration said were involved in activities
including missile development, weapons procurement, and software
theft. "The United States remains deeply concerned about Iran's
malign activities across the Middle East, which undermine regional
stability, security, and prosperity," the announcement said. It
came less than 12 hours after President Trump reluctantly agreed that
Iran has been honoring the nuclear agreement that relaxed many
sanctions on the country in return for verifiable curbs on its
nuclear activities Under an American law, the president must make
such a declaration every 90 days. That law has become a vexing issue
for Mr. Trump, who railed against the nuclear agreement reached under
his predecessor, Barack Obama.
President Hassan Rouhani said on Wednesday new U.S.
economic sanctions imposed against Iran contravened the country's
nuclear accord with world powers and he vowed that Tehran would
"resist" them, state television reported. The Trump
administration slapped the new sanctions on Iran on Tuesday over its
ballistic missile program and said Tehran's "malign
activities" in the Middle East undercut any "positive
contributions" coming from the 2015 Iran nuclear accord.
"Some of the actions of the Americans are against the spirit and
even the letter of the (nuclear accord). We shall resist these plans
and actions," Iranian state television quoted Rouhani as saying.
A high-stakes power struggle between Iran's moderate
president and his hard-line opponents in the judiciary appeared to
escalate with the arrest of the president's brother and the
conviction of an American student for espionage this weekend -
rulings that seemed timed to embarrass the Iranian leader at home and
abroad. President Hassan Rouhani, who was reelected in a landslide in
May, has challenged the conservative establishment by pledging
reforms in Iran and advocating diplomacy and openness toward the rest
of the world. His recent criticisms of the hard-line judiciary and
powerful security forces have prompted public rebukes from the
supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who wields ultimate authority
in Iran. The tensions come as Iran and the United States spar over
the terms of a nuclear deal struck with world powers to limit Iran's
nuclear weapons program.
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
The Iran nuclear deal faces an uncertain future under
President Trump, despite his reluctant decision on Monday to certify
Iran's compliance for the second time in his young presidency. The
Trump administration walked a careful tightrope, balancing the president's
deep disgust with the agreement with the united consensus of his most
senior national security advisers that the U.S. should stay in, at
least for now. National security adviser H.R. McMaster and others
reportedly had to talk the president into recertifying at the
eleventh hour - something Trump would only agree to under certain
conditions, according to The New York Times It's unclear what those
conditions are, leaving open the possibility that in 90 days, the
administration will once again play chicken with the landmark
agreement. "The administration's strategy on Iran is no
different than the rest of their foreign policy - it doesn't
exist," said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who sits on the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee. It was the second time since Trump took
office that he's had to certify Iran is in compliance with an
agreement that he repeatedly called the "worst deal ever
negotiated" on the campaign trail.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
Iran's president says his country will stand up to the
United States and reciprocate for any new sanctions that America
imposes on the Islamic Republic. Hassan Rouhani says that if
Washington, under any pretext, imposes new sanctions against Iran,
"we will stand up to the United States. He says the "great
nation of Iran will have an appropriate answer" and then adds -
without elaborating - that the Iranian parliament will also act.
Rouhani's remarks on Wednesday were broadcast on state TV. He spoke a
day after the Trump administration announced new, non-nuclear
sanctions on Iranians while at the same time warning Iran that it
would face consequences for breaching "the spirit" of the
nuclear deal with world powers. The new sanctions target 18 Iranian
individuals and groups.
By the time Princeton University graduate student Xiyue
Wang arrived in Iran to conduct research for his doctorate in
history, he had already spent years living and working in politically
turbulent countries. The Chinese-born U.S. citizen previously worked
as a Pashto translator for the International Committee of the Red
Cross in Afghanistan and spent time in Uzbekistan while a student at
Harvard University. Wang, 37, was sentenced to 10 years in prison on
spying charges after his arrest last summer, an Iranian official said
on Sunday. He is the latest American citizen to face jail in Iran for
what the U.S. State Department has denounced as fabricated charges.
His sentencing shocked his colleagues at Princeton, who described him
in interviews as a quiet but collegial scholar whose intellectual
curiosity stood out even at the elite school in New Jersey.
Wang is married and has a 4-year-old son. In addition to
Pashto, English and his native Mandarin, Wang is also proficient in
Russian and Turkish and was learning Persian in Iran. His wife,
Hua Qu, said in a statement on Tuesday that her husband "has
been unjustly imprisoned for espionage that I know he did not and
never would commit."
The wife of a Princeton graduate student sentenced to 10
years behind bars in Iran called on authorities there to release him
Tuesday, saying the Chinese-American man has been "unjustly
imprisoned." Xiyue Wang was arrested nearly a year ago but his
confinement only became known Sunday when Iran's judiciary announced
his sentence, accusing him of "infiltrating" the country
and sending confidential material abroad. The 37-year-old, described
by Iranian authorities as holding Chinese and American citizenship,
was in Iran doing research for his doctorate in late 19th and early
20th century Eurasian history when he was detained. In her first
comments on his case, Wang's wife Hua Qu described her husband as
"one of the kindest, most thoughtful, and most loving men I have
ever known." She said the couple has a four-year-old son.
BUSINESS RISK
For years, Iranians have had to put up with the likes of
"Mash Donalds" and "Pizza Hat". Now real Western
food franchises have finally arrived, but doing business in Iran is
not for the faint-hearted. Despite strict international sanctions
being eased under a nuclear deal with world powers last year, the
Iranian economy remains bogged down by red tape and struggles to
attract foreign investors. But a couple of European food franchises
have decided the risks are worth taking for a taste of the estimated
$7 billion (six billion euros) Iranians spend in restaurants each
year, and which local consultancy ILIA says will double in the next
decade. Spain's Telepizza opened its first outlet this month through
an Iranian consortium that plans to pump 100 million euros into
expanding nationwide. But one of the first Europeans to really get
his hands dirty on the ground is 41-year-old French entrepreneur
Amaury de la Serre, who bought the rights to launch Sushi Shop in
Iran after falling in love with the country during a visit in 2013.
SYRIA CONFLICT
Three of the leading international powers involved in
Syria's war-the U.S., Russia and Iran-are looking to expand and
fortify their military presence in the country by building and
upgrading foreign bases, with some already in the works. U.S. special
operations forces have been involved in Syria for years, and the U.S.
appears to be broadening the platforms from which it operates.
Earlier this month, satellite imagery showed what appeared to be the
construction of a new airstrip near Syria's southern border with
Jordan and Iraq, according to The Daily Beast. This base, along with
other "temporary" installations, reportedly could be used
to both battle the Islamic State militant group (ISIS) and bolster
forces of the rebel Free Syrian Army in areas where fighters
supportive of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad are poised to take
over. Meanwhile, Assad allies Russia and Iran have announced plans to
develop their own military presence in the country.
YEMEN CRISIS
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said
Monday that he hopes Yemen's war will not spark direct confrontation
between Iran and Saudi Arabia and that they can work together to end
the conflict in the country and Syria. A Saudi-led Arab coalition
intervened in Yemen's civil war in 2015, backing government forces
fighting Iran-allied Houthi rebels. Saudi Arabia and Iran compete for
influence in the Middle East, also supporting rival groups in Syria's
civil war. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman said in
May that any struggle for influence between the kingdom and Iran
ought to take place "inside Iran, not in Saudi Arabia."
When asked at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank in New York
if he was worried about direct confrontation between Tehran and
Riyadh, Zarif said: "We certainly hope not. ... We don't have to
fight; we don't need to fight. We don't need to try to exclude each
other from the scene in the Middle East."
SAUDI-IRAN TENSIONS
Two men have gone on trial in Saudi Arabia charged with
spying for Iran and plotting to attack a major oil pipeline, two
Saudi newspapers reported on Wednesday. In a rare espionage case
involving the two arch-rivals, the Saudi teachers face charges of
gathering information on the East-West Pipeline of the world's top
oil exporter and plotting to blow it up, the Makkah and Al Weeam
newspapers said. Riyadh's Public Prosecutor has asked the judge in
the case to issue a verdict, but the judge has given the two men
three weeks to defend themselves in another hearing, Makkah reported.
The 5 million barrel per day Petroline mainly transports crude from
fields in the kingdom's oil-producing east to the Red Sea port of
Yanbu for export to Europe and North America and can handle around 60
percent of the kingdom's total oil exports.
HUMAN RIGHTS
An amendment proposed by the Iranian
Parliament's Women's Block to the country's passport Law does nothing
to ease state restrictions on married women's ability to
independently travel abroad, a legal expert told the Center for Human
Rights in Iran (CHRI). "The proposed amendment still gives the
authorities the power to decide whether married women can leave the
country or not," said Farideh Gheirat, a prominent human rights
lawyer. "This is essentially the same as the current law."
"I will be very frank: When I read the news about this
amendment, I was surprised that there was nothing new," she
added. "The law still does not give women the freedom to
travel." On July 12, 2017, the reformist leader of the Women's
Block in Parliament, Parvaneh Salahshouri, claimed the amendment
would make it easier for certain categories of married women to
travel abroad."We have proposed an amendment to Article 18 [of
the Passport Law] regarding exit permits for women so that they would
be able to travel out of the country under special
circumstances," said the MP.
A central part of President Hassan
Rouhani's campaign for re-election ahead of Iran's May 19 balloting
focused on addressing the demands of female voters. Emphasizing
women's rights more than any other candidate, the moderate Rouhani
promised Iranian women equal employment opportunities and access to
better services if elected to a second term. Now, women expecting the
president to fulfill his promises have launched various campaigns to
demand that he appoint women as ministers in his second-term Cabinet.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is under pressure to appoint women
ministers after having focused on addressing the demands of female
voters during his campaign for re-election. Using a Persian hashtag
that translates as #NoToTheModerate'sMaleCabinet, women's rights
activists have turned to Twitter and other social media networks to
push for a more active role for women in managing the country. These
efforts are nothing new; many first used the hashtag during a Cabinet
reshuffle in October to push Rouhani to introduce female nominees for
three ministerial posts he was seeking to change - the ministers of
youth affairs and sports, of education and of culture and Islamic
guidance.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
Monday was a tough day for President Trump's agenda. As
the Senate's bid to overturn Obamacare collapsed amid Republican
infighting (more on that later in the newsletter), the White House
reluctantly certified Iran's compliance with the nuclear deal signed
by the Obama administration in 2015. This was the second time the
Trump administration has done so - it is required every 90 days to
notify Congress whether Iran is living up to its commitments. Trump
assented to the move with profound reservations and pushed for more
sanctions on Iran. "Senior administration officials made clear
that the certification was grudging," my colleague Karen DeYoung
wrote, "and said that President Trump intends to impose new
sanctions on Iran for ongoing 'malign activities' in non-nuclear
areas such as ballistic missile development and support for
terrorism." Trump reportedly fumed at having to assent to
another certification of Iran's compliance, which was confirmed by
international monitors and the other signatories to the agreement.
On June 14, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson testified
before the House Foreign Relations Committee that the Donald Trump
administration's Iran policy was still under development and had not
yet been submitted to the president. But he conceded that the policy
included the intention to "work toward support of those elements
inside of Iran that would lead to a peaceful transition of that
government." This is another way of saying that the Trump
administration's official policy toward Iran will likely be regime
change. If that proves the case, Washington will have inadvertently
made itself a far greater danger to the stability of Middle East than
Tehran. This might sound like an apology for the Iranian regime. It
is not. The current regime in Iran has many faults: It is repressive
and authoritarian, abuses human rights and severely limits the
legitimate aspirations to greater political freedom of its own
people. Nonetheless, the faults of the regime and the inflammatory
rhetoric of some of its supporters should not distort the picture.
The announcement on Sunday that Iran had sentenced Xiyue
Wang, an American citizen and Princeton graduate student who was
arrested last summer while doing research in the country, to 10 years
in prison for being a spy for American and British intelligence, came
the day before President Donald Trump was scheduled to recertify the
Iran nuclear deal that President Barack Obama had reached in 2015.
Mr. Trump had campaigned against the agreement; Mr. Wang's seizure,
like so many other aggressive actions that the Iranian regime has
engaged in since the nuclear deal was concluded, should have, some of
his supporters surely thought, obliged the White House to abandon the
Iran policy advanced by his predecessor. No such luck. And given the
administration's decision Monday to issue only minor sanctions
against the Islamic Republic, while recertifying Tehran's adherence
to the atomic accord, it's doubtful that President Trump intends to
seek Mr. Wang's release any more vigorously than had the Obama
administration. Hostage-taking - for that's what was done to Mr. Wang
- in the Islamic Republic is both statecraft and soulcraft. Hostages
become pawns and condign punishment in the clerical regime's endless
duel with the West.
The Iran nuclear deal's recent two-year anniversary
prompted numerous positive commentaries on the agreement's
accomplishments to date. However, as the Trump administration reviews
US policy on Iran, it should remember that sunny though the present
may seem, the deal's long-term costs are many and heavy-and long
outweigh the benefits. So, with respect to the Iran deal, we should
brace ourselves, for winter is coming. The deal's short-term
positives are noteworthy. Iran has shipped out most of its stockpile of
enriched uranium, is temporarily prohibited from enriching uranium to
anywhere near weapons-grade levels, and redesigned its heavy-water
Arak reactor so that it cannot make weapons-grade plutonium.
Consequently, Iran's "breakout time," the period it would
take Tehran to develop a nuclear weapon, has expanded from several
months pre-deal to closer to a year.
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