Iran's
Lebanese Missile Factories in "New and Very Dangerous Phase"
by Yaakov Lappin
Special to IPT News
July 18, 2017
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 Recently-built
Iranian missile factories in Lebanon can produce powerful weapons for
Hizballah and are part of a wider trend that could set the region on fire,
a senior former Israeli defense source has told the Investigative Project
on Terrorism (IPT).
"There is no doubt that this is a new and very dangerous
stage," the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said about
the fact that Iran has for the first time placed military production
industries directly in Hizballah's possession.
"It points to the fact that Lebanon is not a state, but a branch of
Iran that is controlled by Hizballah, and that Iran, after the nuclear
agreement, feels that it can do everything because no one dares harm
it," he added.
Tehran's alliance with Moscow gives the Islamic Republic
"extraordinary power, and hence, Iran allows itself to do what it has
not dared do without the alliance with Russia," the source said.
Russia depends on Iran to safeguard the Assad regime in Syria, the
source noted. Iran is testing Israeli red lines by arming the radical
Shi'ite Iranian proxy, Hizballah, with potentially dire consequences.
"When Israel is forced to act after Iran and Hizballah cross all of
the red lines, Lebanon will be destroyed, because Iran and Hizballah have
turned it into one big weapons storage facility, and the world is
silent," the source said.
"Anyone who dreams about Israel accepting, in a future arrangement
[with the Palestinians], any kind of international force that will have any
kind of role, should examine the utter uselessness of UNIFIL [the United
Nations force stationed in southern Lebanon], which has yet to report on a
single rocket or missile out of the 120,000 that exist in Lebanon. For
Israel, UNIFIL is more of a nuisance than a benefit," the source said.
Earlier this month, France's Intelligence Online magazine reported that one factory was under construction in
northern Lebanon, with the second being built on Lebanon's southern coast.
The production center in northern Lebanon was designed to make Fateh 110
medium-range missiles, which puts most of Israel in range and carries a
warhead of 500 kilograms, according to the report.
The IPT interviewed defense experts about the factories in
March, and noted the sites represent a disturbing boost in the Shi'ite terrorist
army's ability to self-produce weapons.
Israeli officials have gone on record in recent weeks to confirm the
factories' existence, including Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff,
Lt.-Gen. Gadi Eizenkot, and the chief of Israel's Military Intelligence,
Maj.-Gen. Herzl Halevi. Hizballah is "establishing a military industry
in Lebanon with Iranian support," Halevi said.
Eizenkot told the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense
Committee earlier this month that the Israeli military had placed the
Iranian "precision project" – the drive to produce new guided
projectiles, and to improve the accuracy of existing projectiles – at
"the top of our priority list."
The program is "mainly ongoing in factories in Iran and Syria, and
they are trying to promote it in Lebanon," Eizenkot said.
He also seemed to suggest there was a difference between the current
threat posed by Iran's guided missile program and the future potential
threat, if left unchecked.
The IDF was not resting on its laurels in the face of Iran's efforts to
manufacture and spread these weapons, Eizenkot said. Currently, "these
abilities are very limited, and therefore, we must remain proportionate and
not be alarmed. The IDF is working in regards to the [Iranian precision]
project all of the time, through a wide range of tools that are best not
talked about. We are working with the intention of avoiding a deterioration
[of the security situation]."
Emily Landau, head of the Arms Control and Regional Security Program at
the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, told the IPT that
the factories "signal a new escalation in Iran's weapons proliferation
in the region."
Not only do they serve Iran's objective of continuously arming
Hizballah, they are also designed to "overcome the vulnerability of
transport vehicles transferring weapons from Iran via Syria, to
Lebanon," Landau said, in reference to international media reports
about repeated Israeli strikes on Iranian-Hizballah weapons convoys in
Syria.
Iran seems to hope that setting up missile factories in Lebanon would
eliminate opportunities to attack future international weapons trafficking
runs.
"All of these activities are in blatant violation of United Nations
Security Council Resolution 1701 [which called on making southern Lebanon a
weapons free zone, with the exception of Lebanon's official army],"
Landau said. "The world seems to ignore this violation. The
international community should be called out on turning a blind eye to what
Iran is doing. This should not be Israel's problem alone."
The factories feed "into Iran's very problematic regional
profile," Landau said, "which is connected to the nuclear deal as
well, and should all be on the table in the Trump administration's Iran
policy review."
For now, Israel appears to trying to deter Iran from starting up the
factories, and has reportedly issued explicit warnings to Tehran to that effect.
Meanwhile, Israeli media reports say that Iran wants to create an
airbase in neighboring Syria. Iran's plans include the leasing of a ground
military base for thousands of Iranian-backed Shi'ite militias and a naval
base.
"These steps represent a move by Iran to establish a long-term
presence in Syria and pose a threat to Israel," Israel's daily Yedioth
Ahronoth reported.
On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a dramatic statement, rejecting the ceasefire in
southern Syria brokered by the United States and Russia, saying it fails to
suppress Iranian attempts to consolidate its military power in the war-torn
country.
"Israel is aware of Iran's expansionist goals in Syria, Netanyahu's office said in a statement.
Yaakov Lappin is a military and strategic affairs correspondent. He
also conducts research and analysis for defense think tanks, and is the
Israel correspondent for IHS Jane's Defense Weekly. His book, The
Virtual Caliphate, explores the online jihadist presence.
Related Topics: Hizballah
| Yaakov
Lappin, Iran,
missile
factories, IDF,
United
Nations, Hizballah
missiles, Gadi
Eizenkot, Herzl
Halevi, Emily
Landau, Benjamin
Netanyahu, Assad
regime, Hizballah
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