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TOP STORIES
Iran's Revolutionary Guards have started using a new
route across the Gulf to funnel covert arms shipments to their Houthi
allies in Yemen's civil war, sources familiar with the matter have
told Reuters. In March, regional and Western sources told Reuters
that Iran was shipping weapons and military advisers to the Houthis
either directly to Yemen or via Somalia. This route however risked
contact with international naval vessels on patrol in the Gulf of
Oman and the Arabian Sea. For the last six months the Islamic
Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has begun using waters further up
the Gulf between Kuwait and Iran as it looks for new ways to beat an
embargo on arms shipments to fellow Shi'ites in the Houthi movement,
Western and Iranian sources say. Using this new route, Iranian ships
transfer equipment to smaller vessels at the top of the Gulf, where
they face less scrutiny. The [transshipments] take place in Kuwaiti
waters and in nearby international shipping lanes, the sources said.
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson acknowledged on
Tuesday that he and President Donald Trump disagree over the 2015
Iran nuclear deal, and said the two men discuss how to use the
international agreement to advance administration policies... Trump
has preserved the deal for now, although he has made clear he did so
reluctantly after being advised to do so by Tillerson.
Heightened tensions between Washington and Tehran look
certain to stall already challenging efforts by Iran to attract
billions of dollars in foreign investment for its oil and gas
industry Iran finally signed its first major energy investment
contract in early July with French energy giant Total but
expectations that the deal will be the first of many have been
upended by the worsening political climate triggered by new sanctions
imposed on Iran by the United States.
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
Iran believes new sanctions that the United States has
imposed on it breach the nuclear deal it agreed in 2015 and has
complained to a body that oversees the pact's implementation, a
senior politician said on Tuesday.
The Iran nuclear deal, struck in 2015 after countless
late nights and serial missed deadlines, is running into trouble just
six months into Donald Trump's presidency. Trump has indicated he's
unlikely to again certify Iran's compliance, as required under U.S.
law every 90 days, arguing its missile program and foreign policy are
an affront to the spirit of the pact. Separately, Congress has
approved broadening sanctions through legislation awaiting Trump's
signature. The pressure has put Tehran in a bind: It sees the
American actions as an infringement of the agreement, and factions
that have consistently rejected it are pushing for a more aggressive
Iranian riposte. Delivering one would risk allowing the U.S. to blame
Iran for any subsequent collapse of the accord.
NUCLEAR & BALLISTIC MISSILE PROGRAM
With this latest launch, Iran's space program has
emerged from a three-year dormancy initiated by Rouhani but probably
issuing from technical and budgetary constraints as well. Further
launches can be expected in the near future, likely renewing concerns
over the nature of Iran's missile and SLV programs. The scenario is
especially worrisome when considering assessments that a
ballistic-missile derivative of the Simorgh could potentially achieve
intercontinental range. Iran insists its inherently military-run
space program is for peaceful purposes only and that its ballistic
missiles are for conventional deterrence at a range no greater than
2,000 kilometers. Such rhetoric and Iran's technical limitations
notwithstanding, the mere possibility of diverted know-how from an
SLV to an ICBM program will unsettle many Western capitals. Previous
close cooperation between Tehran and Pyongyang will provide no
further solace.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
In just the past few weeks: Iran launched a rocket
carrying a satellite into space. It also announced it is creating a
new missile production line, and said it would continue with its
missile program.. The U.S. Navy fired warning shots at an Iranian
vessel that came dangerously close to them in the Persian Gulf. Iran
signed a military cooperation deal with Iraq, and it has been
downplaying the U.S. role in the efforts to liberate Mosul from ISIS.
Why it matters: Iran has long been wary of the U.S. presence in the
region, since it believes the U.S. is out to undermine its regime and
ability to influence the region. These latest steps are Iran
signaling to the U.S. that the time has come for U.S. influence in
the region to wane, said Nick Heras, who has conducted research at
the National Defense University for U.S. Cyber Command. Farzan Sabet,
a Stanford University expert on U.S.-Iran relations who has done
research on U.S.-Iran relations, put it simply - Iran "wants the
Americans to leave." The latest response: Secretary of State Rex
Tillerson told reporters Tuesday "it is our intention to push
back on Iran's expansionist efforts to destabilize the region."
SANCTIONS ENFORCEMENT
The autonomous Iraqi region of Kurdistan has not been
informed of plans by the central government that Iraq and Iran agreed
to study the potential construction of a pipeline that would export
crude oil from fields in Kirkuk via Iran, a senior Kurdish lawmaker
told London-based Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat on Tuesday, adding that
the Iraq-Iran project was violating U.S. sanctions on Iran.
YEMEN CRISIS
Iran is gradually increasing its support for the Houthi
rebels in Yemen. Rather than eliminating the Iranian presence in the
country, the Saudi-led war is giving Tehran the opportunity to become
more influential there than ever. The Houthis remain fiercely
independent of Iran, but they will need Tehran's backing more as the
stalemate continues.
SAUDI-IRAN TENSIONS
The visit to Saudi Arabia by Iraq's influential Shiite
cleric Moqtada Al Sadr was welcomed by the Trump administration on
Monday, and is seen by experts as a significant development for
regional stability and countering Iran's expansionism. The
black-turbaned cleric sent a message to several quarters by meeting
Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah on Sunday. Mr Al
Sadr's last visit to the kingdom in 2006 was centred on the Hajj, but
his latest one is very political in nature and comes at a critical
time in Saudi-Iraqi relations. Commenting on the visit, a US state
department official told The National that "both Saudi Arabia
and Iraq are solid partners of the United States" and "we
welcome strong relations between the two countries and continue to
support their efforts and outreach in this regard". Ever
since 2003, successive US administrations have pushed for more Saudi
engagement with the new Iraq, and the past two months have seen three
high-level Iraqi visits to Saudi Arabia - by prime minister Haider Al
Abadi, his interior minister Qasim Al Araji, and now by Mr Al Sadr.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Amnesty International says Iran's
judicial and security bodies have waged a vicious clampdown on human
rights defenders, vilifying and imprisoning activists who dare to stand
up for people's rights. In a new report, the rights watchdog says
scores of Iranian human rights defenders have been imprisoned on
fabricated charges of threatening "national security." Many
others have been subjected to surveillance, interrogations, and
drawn-out criminal proceedings coercing them into self-censorship, it
says... It says the wave of repression appears to be an attempt on
the part of the state's repressive arms to crush any hopes of human
rights reform raised by the promises of increased freedoms made
during President Hassan Rohani's first election campaign in 2013.
A prisoner was hanged in public in Iran
while a large crowd of people watched. Iran Human Rights
(August 1 2017): A prisoner by the name of Hossein Sarooki was hanged
in public in the city of Juybar on murder charges. According to
the state-run news agency, Jouybaran, the execution was carried out
on the morning of Tuesday August 1 in front of a crowd of five
thousand people. An informed source tells Iran Human Rights
that Hossein Sarooki was 28 years of age at the time of his execution
and was transferred to solitary confinement at Ghaem Shahr Prison on
Monday in preparation for his execution.
The families of two former opposition
presidential candidates in Iran who have been under house arrest
since 2011 say that they are being denied adequate care despite
deteriorating health, Human Right Watch said today. The former
candidates, Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Zahra
Rahnavard, an author and activist who is Mousavi's wife, have been
under house arrest in Tehran since February 2011. Iranian authorities
should immediately provide them with unrestricted access to adequate
health care.
The Times of Israel is acutely
concerned for the well-being of Neda Amin, a Turkey-based,
Iranian-born blogger for The Times of Israel's Persian website, who
is being threatened with imminent deportation by Turkey. Amin has
appealed to the United Nations in Turkey to protect her, noting that
the UN previously designated her a refugee in 2015, and has also
appealed to human rights organizations and others to intervene on her
behalf, asking that a country be found where she can be given safe
refuge. Amin fears that if no other country takes her in, she will be
sent back to Iran, where she fears for her fate. She is now battling
the deportation threat via the Turkish courts. The UN Watch NGO is
circulating a petition on Amin's behalf, warning that she "is in
grave danger should she be deported back to Iran."
Iranian opposition figure Mehdi Karrubi has been
hospitalized for a second time in a week due to a heart condition,
his wife said. Karrubi's wife, Fatemeh Karrubi, told the semiofficial
ILNA news agency on July 31 that her husband had been transferred to
the coronary unit of a Tehran hospital after having tests done. She
said doctors don't think it's safe for him to undergo open-heart
surgery. Karrubi, 79, a former parliament speaker who has been under
house arrest since 2011 without being charged, was also briefly
hospitalized on July 25 due to heart problems. Karrubi's relatives
say his health problems have been caused by his long detention.
Karrubi, along with opposition leader Mir Hossein Musavi and his
wife, Zahra Rahnavard, were placed under house arrest in February
2011 for challenging the establishment over the disputed 2009
presidential vote and also for highlighting human rights abuses.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Iran's president is under pressure to appoint female
ministers as he mulls a cabinet reshuffle before his swearing-in
ceremony on Sunday. Hassan Rouhani's all-male list of ministers
during his first term in office dismayed his base even though the
moderate cleric appointed a number of women as vice-president, a
comparatively less senior position in Iran's political hierarchy.
As jockeying intensifies before the unveiling of his new
cabinet, concerns have grown that Rouhani may give in to pressure
from hardliners and not include women as ministers. Expectation is
particularly high because he ran on a reformist agenda. Under the
Iranian constitution, the Majlis (parliament), would have to approve
his appointees.
The economy dominated Iran's recent presidential
election. Hassan Rouhani, the incumbent, argued that integration into
the global economy is the only path to prosperity and job creation,
while his rivals accused his administration of having ignored the poor.
Rouhani's opponents also promised to create millions of jobs, double
the size of the economy and triple monthly cash payments to
low-income families. In the end, most Iranian voters preferred
Rouhani's path. Whether President Rouhani can deliver on his promises
remains unclear, as does whether the head of government is powerful
enough to realize any pledge to fundamentally revive the economy. The
distinct division between the public and private sectors of national
economies as generally understood by economists does not apply in
Iran. Iranian university professor Amrollah Ghadiri wrote in a May 1
editorial for the leading daily Donya-e Eqtesad, "It is time for
us to separate the government as the executive branch from the state
and organizations affiliated with the state in studying the
economy."
Iran's justice department confirmed the arrest of two
Iranian religious eulogists on Sunday. Judiciary spokesman
Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei provided no names or details on the reason
for their arrests, but according to unofficial reports they were
arrested on charges of spying for Israel. In unconfirmed reports
circulating on social media in the last few weeks, that sound like a
Hollywood movie plot, two young women allegedly approached the two
famous religious eulogists, Reza Helali and Rouhollah Bahmani, who
have close ties to the conservative political establishment, and
started up romantic relations with them, extracting sensitive
information that they passed on to individuals working for the
Israeli intelligence service, Mossad. The unconfirmed reports can
have a public relations impact for the regime because Helali and
Bahmani both have close ties to high-ranking Iranian officials.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
Earlier this year, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson
spoke of "Iran's alarming and ongoing provocations that export
terror and violence: "Whether it be assassination attempts,
support of weapons of mass destruction, deploying destabilizing
militias, Iran spends its treasure and time disrupting peace."
Evidence of Iran's malign activity was recently made available when
the State Department published its annual report on global terrorism.
As Acting Coordinator for Counterterrorism Justin Siberell said at
the release of the report, while ISIS remains a top focus for U.S.
and international counterterrorism efforts, Iran remains the foremost
state sponsor of terrorism globally. The report identifies the
Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps' Qods Force as Iran's primary
mechanism for cultivating and supporting terrorists abroad- for
example, through the Qods Force's direct involvement in the conflicts
in Iraq and Syria.
Iran or North Korea? Which threat should America
confront first? Here's a thought: both... [O]ne action the United
States can take would be to put forth a UN resolution naming and
sanctioning persons and entities involved in the Iran-North Korea
arms cooperation. Western diplomats tell me it likely won't pass. Yet
they're intrigued by publicly airing, Adlai Stevenson-like, America's
intel on Iran-Nork cooperation. Iran's missile program was,
bizarrely, left out of Obama's nuclear deal Revealing the
Tehran-Pyongyang nexus might convince allies wobbly about Tehran's
violations that the mullahs' threat is global. It could also start
the process of plugging a major cash source for the Kim regime...
We've long thought of Iran and North Korea as separate problems. Time
for a holistic approach that will give a jolt to the diplomatic
stalemate... But a change in diplomatic strategy is needed too, and
fast. Time to expose what everyone knows, but no one ever says out
loud: Kim and the mullahs are BFFs.
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