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TOP STORIES
Now, as Iran prepares for his second inauguration on
Saturday, some of the forces that helped give Mr. Rouhani a 24
million-vote mandate in May are concerned he will not fulfill his
promise of appointing women and young politicians to his 18-member
cabinet, and instead is running nominations by the supreme leader,
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Many of Mr. Rouhani's leading supporters in
the May election had hoped the new cabinet would represent a new
generation of women, youths and daring politicians, ready to
implement Mr. Rouhani's agenda and curb the influence of hard-liners.
Instead, although all the positions are not yet filled, it looks like
the ministers will be a delicate mix of older technocrats,
don't-rock-the-boat moderates and even some hard-liners. Reformists
are now saying the 18 slots will all be filled by men, dashing hopes
built up during Mr. Rouhani's campaign.
Iran hoped that agreeing to curtail its nuclear program
would encourage foreign firms to pour tens of billions into the
country. But a flood of major investment has not materialized -- and
that's largely because of the United States.
Iran's supreme leader on Thursday slammed the new U.S.
sanctions on Tehran signed by President Donald Trump the previous
day, and vowed his country would continue its missile program despite
international pressure.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
Hassan Rouhani this week officially starts his second
term at the helm of Iran's government, with the optimism of his
landslide victory in May now eclipsed by a deepening standoff with
the U.S... The success of the next four years will to a large extent depend
"on how much the U.S. will push against Iran, and how much other
partners and allies will push back against the U.S," said
Bassiri Tabrizi. Rouhani and his team "are aware that they have
only one card to play," she said. "They knew in 2013 it was
the nuclear deal or nothing. Now they know it's fixing the economy or
nothing."
Rep. Dan Donovan wants the feds to look into some
curious grants given to the likes of Columbia, Harvard and Princeton
that came from a foundation with a pro-Iran, anti-Israel
slant. This is an investigation that should definitely go forth,
and the sooner, the far better.
The Alavi Foundation was deemed in June by jurors in Manhattan's
federal court of illegally managing 650 Fifth Ave. on behalf of Iran.
Now, it's this same group, the Alavi Foundation, that's been tied to
the funding of certain professors at these Ivy American schools - and
others around the U.S. - who are decidedly anti-Israel and pro-Iran
in their teachings.
A faction of Iran hawks in the Donald Trump
administration appears to have been dealt a blow in recent days.
Several officials allied with White House chief strategist Steve
Bannon have been removed from the National Security Council (NSC).
Among them are NSC senior director for intelligence Ezra
Cohen-Watnick, who was removed Aug. 2; NSC senior director for the
Middle East Derek Harvey, who was asked to resign last week; and NSC
director for strategic planning Rich Higgins, reportedly for writing
and circulating a bizarre memo alleging a conspiracy of globalists,
leftists and Islamists trying to undermine Trump, according to The
Atlantic.
SANCTIONS ENFORCEMENT
Yesterday President Donald Trump signed into law the
Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, which
includes actions against Iran's ballistic missile program and the
Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and its affiliated entities.
Coming at a time of political ferment in Iran, the new U.S.
legislation provides an opportunity for hardliners and moderates to
demonstrate their political bona fides as they calibrate their
response. In recent weeks, senior IRGC commanders have threatened
that a new round of U.S sanctions would trigger a harsh response
against American interests in the region. Thus, the key question
before U.S. national security officials is whether an Iranian group
will feel forced to respond to the sanctions by attacking U.S. forces
directly or indirectly, further escalating tensions between the two
countries.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
Royal Dutch Shell submitted feasibility studies to the
National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) for developing Iran's Azadegan
and Yadavaran oilfields. Shell and NIOC met on Wednesday to discuss a
proposal for developing South Azadegan and Yadavaran oilfields in
Iran, oil ministry's Shana news agency said
Iran's crude oil exports to China could hit an 11-month
high this month, according to sources who spoke to Reuters. But
overall, Iran's total oil and condensate exports for the month could
fall by 4 percent on an annual basis to 2.37 million barrels daily.
In July, according to TankerTrackers, Iran exported an average
605,699 bpd to China, with its market share standing at 26.82
percent. Overall exports averaged 2.26 million bpd. Energy data
provider Kpler calculated the average daily crude exports for July at
2.476 million bpd.
Iranian Minister of Petroleum Bijan Zangeneh says Iran
is open to reviving a program to export gas to the UAE, according to
news service Shana. In 2001, Sharjah-based Crescent Petroleum signed
terms to import gas from the Salman field in the Persian Gulf through
a pipeline to be built jointly built by the company and Iran.
SYRIA CONFLICT
A condition of U.S. cooperation with Russia in the Syria
arena is the removal of Iranian forces from the country, Secretary of
State Rex Tillerson said "The direct presence of Iranian
military forces inside of Syria, they must leave and go home, whether
those are Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces or whether those are
paid militias, foreign fighters, that Iran has brought into Syria in
this battle," Tillerson said Wednesday in a wide-ranging news
conference. The other condition, Tillerson said, was that the end
result should be a unified Syria with "new leadership" -
the removal of the Assad regime.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Russia's deputy foreign minister met
Wednesday with leading diplomats from Iran and Iraq to discuss
combating Islamist extremist groups and the future of Syria. With the
U.S. minimizing efforts to topple the government of Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad and Iraq expressing weariness of the U.S.'s extended
presence in its country, Russia has become an increasingly important
power broker in the region. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail
Bogdanov met in Moscow with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab
and African Affairs Hossein Jaberi Ansari and Iraqi Deputy Foreign
Minister for Political Affairs Nazar Khairallah to emphasize the
"principled position of the three countries" on Syria. All
three expressed support for Assad in a lengthy war pitting his armed
forces against jihadists and opposition groups, according to Syria's
pro-government Al-Watan newspaper and Iran's semi-official Tasnim
News Agency.
Iranian president Hassan Rouhani on Thursday said his new government
would work to improve relations with the outside world as he seeks to
attract foreign investment to tackle high unemployment and boost the
economy. Speaking at his swearing-in ceremony, Mr Rouhani, who won a
landslide victory at elections in May, said he wanted to embark on an
"economic revolution". "With more self-confidence than
before we insist on constructive and effective interaction with the
world," he said.
The gang allegedly supplied fake
Spanish passports to Iranian nationals so they could fly into the UK.
More than 100 people were arrested across Europe, including the
suspected ringleader, who was apprehended at London's Heathrow
airport.
IRAQ CRISIS
Iraq's northern province of Kirkuk refuses to cooperate
with any plans to ship its oil to neighboring Iran because the
central government didn't consult with it on the matter, Kirkuk
provincial officials said. The central government in Baghdad and the
semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government both pump crude from
different wells at Kirkuk's oil fields, which straddle their
respective areas of control. Kurdish forces took control of some
fields in Kirkuk in June 2014 after the Iraqi army fled from Islamic
State militants, but the government in Baghdad doesn't recognize
Kurdish control of the area.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Amnesty International urges EU
diplomatic chief Federica Mogherini to use a visit to Iran this
weekend to demand that Tehran immediately release all imprisoned
human rights activists. London-based Amnesty calls on the European
Union to take a tougher stance as the group published a report
accusing Iran of a "vicious crackdown" that it says has
dashed hopes of rights reform under President Hassan Rouhani.
The Iranian people's right to religious
freedom continues to be violated. The Center for Human Rights in Iran
reports recent abuses involving individuals of several different
faiths. Since June, a revolutionary court in Tehran has issued long
prison sentences to at least 11 Christian converts, as well as the
former leader of the Assyrian Pentecostal Church in Iran. They were
found guilty of crimes against national security after trials that
lacked basic due process. Among the eleven are Pastor Youcef Nadarkhani,
sentenced to ten years for organizing house churches and preaching
what the authorities referred to as "Zionist Christianity,"
and Victor Bet Tamraz, former leader of Iran's Assyrian Pentecostal
church.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
President Hassan Rouhani attended his endorsement
ceremony Aug. 3 with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the heads of the
other two branches of government. The more significant day for
Rouhani, however, will be his swearing-in ceremony Aug. 5, when, in
front of an open session of parliament, he will introduce his new
Cabinet. Reports that Rouhani consulted with Khamenei over potential
candidates have caused the president considerable controversy before
his second term has even started. The first source of controversy was
with the supreme leader's office, which denied that Khamenei was
involved in choosing every Cabinet position. A statement on the
supreme leader's website announced that all administrations
coordinate with Khamenei for ministry positions in foreign affairs,
defense and intelligence due to Khamenei's constitutional duties in
those areas. In Iran, the supreme leader is the commander in chief.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
As the Trump administration is ratcheting up economic
sanctions on Iran and working with Washington's Arab allies to push
back against Iran's growing influence in the region, Iranian
officials are reaching out to potential allies around the world to
minimize the impact of U.S.-led efforts to contain the Islamic
Republic. Tehran, in particular, is trying to drive a wedge between
the United States and major European powers. On June 27, for example,
Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif blasted the Trump
administration's travel ban and new U.S. sanctions on Iran in a
meeting with his German counterpart Sigmar Gabriel in Berlin. The
foreign minister of Germany, which is a signatory to the Iran nuclear
accord, agreed with Zarif that the deal should be fully implemented
by all parties involved. "We stand behind this agreement and
want to support all the parties in their efforts to fulfill it,"
Gabriel said. "As the Federal Republic of Germany and as
Europeans we would oppose any attempts to call it into
question." When French President Emmanuel Macron won the
elections in France, President Hassan Rouhani congratulated him and
urged the new government in Paris to play a more active role in the
implementation of the nuclear agreement... Several Iranian lawmakers
expressed the hope that the Macron government will cultivate closer
ties with Tehran. Hossein Taghva-Hosseini, the spokesman of the
National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the parliament,
also emphasized that Tehran should exploit the widening gulf between
the European Union and the United States to "work with Brussels
to challenge Washington's unilateralism."
The Trump administration must intensify and maintain pressure
on Iran until every American hostage is released. Last week, the
House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed a bipartisan
resolution I introduced with Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.),
Theodore E. Deutch (D-Fla.) and Ted Poe (R-Tex.) that urges President
Trump to take meaningful action to secure the release of U.S.
citizens and legal permanent residents held hostage by Iran. Two of
these prisoners, Siamak and Baquer Namazi, were constituents of mine
when they last lived in the United States.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is about to
inaugurate Hassan Rouhani for his second four-year term as president.
One of the invitees to the inauguration is North Korea, whose
ceremonial head of state Kim Yong-nam flew to Tehran earlier this
week via Russia... Relations between North Korea and Iran are deeper than
commonly recognized. They cooperate on various levels, including in
military and nuclear programs. Iran is a client of North Korean arms
and weapons. The former also relies on the latter's specialists and
engineers for proliferation and advancement of Tehran's ballistic
missile capabilities and nuclear program, which are supervised by
Khamenei's office and Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which
the US recently blacklisted for its expansive role in terrorism... In
the next four years, Rouhani will continue to try to strike business
deals and earn revenue for the ruling clerics, strengthen military
and nuclear cooperation with North Korea and facilitate the IRGC's
military adventurism. To pressure Iran over its regional
expansionism, aggression and human rights abuses, foreign leaders
must decline its invitation to attend the inauguration as Tehran will
use attendance to project international legitimacy and credibility.
The U.S., Russia, Jordan "de-escalation zone"
in Southwest Syria advances the interests of U.S. enemies and
adversaries, including Iran and al Qaeda. The U.S. likely sought to
leverage the agreement to drive a wedge within the Russo-Iranian Coalition,
while reducing violence and testing a potential partnership with
Russia to improve security in Syria. The deal has temporarily reduced
violence, but at great cost to long-term U.S. interests in Syria The
Russo-Iranian coalition is exploiting the agreement to consolidate in
the south. Al Qaeda will likewise leverage the deal and the recent
cut to U.S. support to vetted Syrian opposition groups to preserve
and expand its influence in Southern Syria.
Through the millions of dollars handed back to Iran, the
regime has strengthened both its internal defenses through the
application of new air defense systems, as well as updating arms and
equipment for its armed forces, making it a much bigger threat to its
neighbors than ever before. As well as this, the amount of money it
has had returned through the Iran Deal, has helped tremendously in
bankrolling its military campaigns in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. So, by
participating in this new game of diplomacy, which it has been
playing very well, Iran's clerical leadership is planning to be in
the nuclear deceit game for the long haul. If they can keep the West
playing along with them, the mullahs will be able to build up Iran's
inner security, and with its new strengthened military, it will have
the ability to repel both internal dissent, and any outside invader,
showing its neighbours that it is a country to be both feared and
reckoned with. Then no sooner is its economy booming, with its armed
forces the most sophisticated in the Middle East, and its air
defences second to none, the regime will finish building its long
sought after nuclear weapon. Having reached the stage where it feels
no outside force can stop it, the true belligerence of its leadership
will take over, and their long sought after nuke will be revealed to
the world. But at least, now that Donald Trump is in charge of the
White House, fresh sanctions have been put in place; but only time
will tell how far the new president will go in confronting Iran, and
in what form this confrontation will take.
On July 20, 2017, the Kuwaiti
government ordered the expulsion of three-quarters of Iran's
diplomatic staff, including Ambassador Alireza Enayati, as well as
the closure of the Islamic Republic's cultural, trade, and military
missions in Kuwait City. Kuwait's decision followed last month's
Supreme Court ruling that found twenty-one Shia'a nationals and one Iranian
citizen guilty of plotting "hostile acts" against the
state, smuggling explosives and weapons, and receiving training and
support from Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah. Following the conviction,
sixteen members of this "Abdali cell" (named for the border
town where cell members gathered) escaped from prison to Iran... That
Iran is divided between "moderates" and
"hard-liners," and that a policy of accommodation empowers
the former at the expense of the latter, is the fundamental pillar of
the Iran engagement narrative... But what the Saudis and the GCC have
been advancing, and what some Iran watchers ignore, is that, on
matters of regional policy, the difference between these two groups
is one of tactics, not strategy... Both parties are united behind the
principle of revolutionary expansionism because both parties believe
that this is the only policy capable of upholding the
religio-political legitimacy of the Islamic Republic, which keeps
both "moderates" and "hard-liners" in power.
Kuwait learned the Iranian approach the hard way. Those Western
analysts who continuously criticize Saudi Arabia's deep mistrust of
the Iranian regime would do well to evaluate this "case
study" very carefully.
So much of U.S. policy in South and West Asia has been
determined by Washington's relationship with two countries: Iran and
Pakistan. But the relationship between these two regional powers has
been in many ways as influential as their swings from allies to
frenemies to adversaries with the United States. The ties between
Iran and Pakistan run deep, and have shifted over time from a deep
affinity to regional rivalry and proxy conflict. Underneath it all
has been the two countries' pragmatic self-interest. "Neither
country has ever genuinely considered optimum relations as an end in
itself," Alex Vatanka writes in the introduction to his book,
Iran and Pakistan: Security, Diplomacy and American Influence.
"For both Iran and Pakistan, bilateral closeness was always
meant to reap something strategically larger." But over the past
seven decades, since Pakistan's inception, their relationship has
been buffeted by global and regional competition, by the Cold War,
the scramble for Afghanistan, and the Iran-Saudi rivalry.
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