The Iranian Presidential Elections
A briefing by Patrick
Clawson
June 4, 2009
http://www.meforum.org/2163/iranian-presidential-elections
(includes
an audio recording of this talk)
Patrick Clawson is deputy director for research at the
Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a leading specialist on
Iran. He has authored or edited more than two dozen books and
monographs, including The
Last Resort: Consequences of Preventive Military Action against
Iran, with Michael Eisenstadt. He holds a doctorate in economics
and speaks Persian. On June 4, Mr. Clawson addressed the Middle East
Forum via conference call.
Though Patrick Clawson's predictive talk took place before
the June 12 Iranian presidential election, his insights are relevant in
the wake of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's "landslide victory," as making sense of
its significance requires an understanding of what was — and, just as
importantly, what was not — at stake.
Clawson contends that "Iran's president is not really that
powerful a figure." He has some influence over social and economic policy,
but true power resides with Supreme Leader Ali Khamene'i, who controls
national security and foreign affairs. As Clawson put it, the Iranian
president is more a "cheerleader in chief" than a "commander in
chief."
Hence, Iran's threats to Israel and the Western world —
primarily its nuclear program and support for terrorism — were destined to
continue no matter who prevailed on June 12. The only potential change was
in the presentation of these policies, with a choice between Ahmadinejad's
chief rival Mir-Hossein Mousavi "blowing smoke in our eyes" or the
firebrand incumbent "spitting in our eyes." Ironically, the in-your-face
tactics of the latter may put the world on alert more than the lulling
practices of a Mousavi.
Saying that "election" is a "polite word" in the case of
Iran, Clawson noted that the president is "selected more than he is
elected," because the supreme leader excludes all candidates who would not
advance the Islamic Republic's sectarian and highly belligerent agenda,
both at home and abroad. Clawson also warned that Iranian elections are
rigged and subject to "typically massive fraud" — a description that has
proven prescient.
Clawson said that Iran's presidential campaigns are "used by
the Iranian supreme leader to gauge what is the popular opinion … and to
adjust his policies as required." Judging by the outcome, Khamene'i sees
little reason to alter course.
Clawson concluded by stating that the chance of diplomacy
halting Iran's nuclear program is less than one in three. In his view,
there is a greater probability that Israel will strike Iran, precipitating
a crisis in U.S.-Israeli relations.
Summary account by David Rusin.
Related Topics: Iran Patrick
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