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 Iran's President Mahmoud Abdullah in Mecca in |
They have identified a major confrontation that the media
has somehow missed – and which is the more important for Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad's just having been re-designated as president of Iran.
A cold war, according to the Merriam-Webster
dictionary, is "a conflict over ideological differences carried on by
methods short of sustained overt military action and usually without
breaking off diplomatic relations." Note the three elements in this
definition: ideological differences, no actual fighting, and not breaking
off diplomatic relations.
The classic instance of a cold war, of course, involved the
United States and the Soviet Union between 1945 and 1991, a long lasting
and global standoff. The "Arab cold war" of
1958-70, shorter and more localized, offers a second notable instance. In
that case, Gamal Abdel Nasser, an Egyptian revolutionary, tried to upend
the region while the Saudis led the effort to maintain the status quo.
Their conflict culminated in the Yemen War of 1962-70, a vicious conflict
that ended only with the death of Abdel Nasser.
A new ideological division now splits the region, what I
call the Middle Eastern cold war. Its dynamics help explain an
increasingly hostile confrontation between two blocs.
The revolutionary bloc and its allies: Iran leads
Syria, Qatar, Oman,
and two organizations, Hezbollah and Hamas. Turkey
serves as a very important auxiliary. Iraq sits in the wings.
Paradoxically, several of these countries are themselves distinctly
non-revolutionary.The status-quo bloc: Saudi Arabia (again) leads,
with Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, and most
Arabic-speaking states following, along with Fatah. Israel serves as a
semi-auxiliary. Note that Egypt, which once led its own bloc, now
co-leads one with Saudi Arabia, reflecting Cairo's diminished influence
over the last half century.Some states, such as Libya, sit on the
sidelines.
The present cold war goes back to 1979, when Ayatollah
Khomeini seized power in Tehran and harbored grand ambitions to
destabilize other states in the region to impose his brand of
revolutionary Islam. Those ambitions waned after Khomeini's death in 1989
but roared back to life with Ahmadinejad's presidency in 2005 along with
the building of weapons of mass destruction, widespread terrorism,
engagement in Iraq, and the claim to Bahrain.
The Middle Eastern cold war has many significant
manifestations; here are four of them.
(1) In 2006, when Hezbollah fought the Israel Defense
Forces, several Arab
states publicly condemned Hezbollah for its "unexpected, inappropriate
and irresponsible acts." An Iranian newspaper editorial responded with an
"eternal curse on the muftis of the Saudi court and of the pharaoh of
Egypt."
(2) The Moroccan
government in March 2009 announced that it had broken off diplomatic
relations with Tehran on the grounds of "intolerable interference in the
internal affairs of the kingdom," meaning Iranian efforts to convert
Sunnis to the Shiite version of Islam.
(3) The Egyptian
government arrested 49 Hezbollah agents in April, accusing them of
destabilizing Egypt; Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah then confirmed that
the group's leader worked for him.
(4) Close Turkish-Israeli
ties have floundered as Ankara's increasingly overt Islamist
leadership opposes Israeli government policies, deploys hostile
language against the Jewish state, invites its enemies to Ankara, transfers
Iranian arms to Hezbollah, and uses anti-Zionism to isolate the
Turkish military.
By diverting passions away from the seemingly interminable
Arab-Israeli conflict, the Middle Eastern cold war may appear to help
reduce tensions. That, however, is not the case. However venomous
relations between Fatah
and Hamas may be, with each killing the other's operatives, they will
in the end always join forces against Israel. Likewise, Washington will
not find significant support in Saudi Arabia or any other members of its
bloc vis-à-vis Iran. In the end, Muslim states shy from joining with
non-Muslims against fellow Muslims.
Looking more broadly, the Middle Eastern cold war
internationalizes once-local issues – such as the religious affiliation of
Moroccans – imbuing them with Middle-East wide repercussions. Thus does
this cold war add new flashpoints and greater volatility to what was
already the world's most unstable region.
Related Topics: Middle East patterns, Strategic alliancesThis article derives from a talk delivered earlier this
month at an EMET-Heritage
Foundation conference.
Daniel
Pipes
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