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Anarchy Surrounds Israel
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Of Israel's neighbors, Lebanon always
stood out by virtue of its weak central government, but for the first twenty
years, 1948-68, this did not present difficulties to Israel; only when the
Palestinian created a state-within-a-state there did its anarchy became a
major challenge to the Jewish state, as symbolized by the Beirut
airport raid of December 1968. Many skirmishes followed as well as two
wars (those of 1982 and 2006). Lebanon remains anarchic and the home base for
Hezbollah; it could well be a future Arab-Israeli battlefield.
The powerful Egyptian state ruled Sinai
with an iron fist until late in Mubarak's term when, as the Bedouin became
increasingly Islamist, his regime did not keep control. Terrorism against
Egyptian tourist targets followed (such as the attack on Sharm el-Sheikh
in 2005) as well as against
Israeli territory. These attacks increased after Mubarak's resignation,
making the region a no-man's-land,
and will probably continue to rise.
Hamas took over in Gaza two years
after the unilateral Israeli withdrawal in 2005; not surprisingly, it began
shelling Israeli territory, especially the town of Sderot, leading to the
Israeli invasion of 2008-09. That tamped down on the violence but the
shelling continues.
Now comes word from Israeli
military intelligence that it expects the Golan Heights to become
anarchic as the Assad regime pulls its forces for more urgent duties and
various terrorist groups make hay.
If this is the case, then the only two
borders left with any security are those of Jordan (where the monarchy
has its own troubles) and the West Bank (where the IDF continues to
patrol).
Comments: (1) As I noted a half year
ago in "Anarchy,
the New Threat," this trend away from despotism and toward anarchy
is worldwide and especially pronounced in the Greater Middle East, where it
also includes Libya, Somalia, Yemen, Iraq, and Afghanistan. (2) The Israeli
preoccupation with Iranian nuclear weapons should not distract completely
from this homelier but still significant threat. (July 18, 2012)
Related
Topics: Arab-Israel
conflict & diplomacy This text may be reposted or
forwarded so long as it is presented as an integral whole with complete
information provided about its author, date, place of publication, and
original URL.
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