Monday, July 8, 2013

Gatestone Update :: Gordon G. Chang: Tinker, Tailor, Snowden, Spy, and more



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Tinker, Tailor, Snowden, Spy

by Gordon G. Chang
July 8, 2013 at 5:00 am
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By that time, there was no point for China to give Snowden a Beijing palace where he could pet phoenixes.
"Ask yourself: if I were a Chinese spy, why wouldn't I have flown directly into Beijing? I could be living in a palace petting a phoenix by now." So wrote Edward Snowden in the middle of last month, in a live chat with readers of London's Guardian.
Today, the famous 30-year-old cuts a pathetic figure, presumably still marooned in the transit zone in Moscow's Sheremetyevo International Airport. He has, we are told, remained there since June 23, when he arrived, without passport or Russian visa, on an Aeroflot flight from Hong Kong. Snowden, through the assistance of the WikiLeaks organization, has filed a reported 27 requests for asylum. Venezuela's president, Nicolas Maduro, offered him refuge on Friday, and Bolivian leader Evo Morales followed suit on Saturday, but China has yet to welcome him.
Beijing's refusal to accept Snowden suggests he is not a Chinese agent, at least if we accept the premise of his argument outlined for the readers of the Guardian. Nonetheless, there are aspects of his relationship with the People's Republic of China that are, at the very least, unsettling.
As an initial matter, China may have helped him gather information from the National Security Agency. Sources in the American intelligence community suspect the famous "leaker" was really a "drop box," receiving information from others in NSA who were working for China. It was his job to act as the courier.
This theory explains how Snowden could possess information to which he did not have access. It is possible he figured out how to bypass barriers in NSA's systems, but it is more likely he had help. Eli Lake of the Daily Beast reports that the FBI is investigating whether Snowden obtained documents "from a leak inside the secret FISA court." Similarly, Mike Rogers, chairman of the House Select Committee on Intelligence, has suggested Snowden probably had an accomplice in the NSA who gave him information.
Beijing may also have encouraged Mr. Snowden to leave Hawaii. One of my sources indicates that Chinese intelligence, either directly or through FBI personnel working for China, tipped Snowden off that NSA investigators were closing in on him.
There still is no proof of this allegation, but it is telling that Snowden chose to run to Hong Kong. At first glance, that city is a curious choice for someone trying to avoid American justice. It has the equivalent of an extradition agreement with the U.S. -- as a non-sovereign it technically "surrenders" suspects, not extradites them -- and a well-known history of close cooperation with American law enforcement. The Guardian, referring to Snowden, stated that "he believed that it was one of the few places in the world that both could and would resist the dictates of the U.S. government." In view of Hong Kong's record of regularly turning over suspects to America, this had to mean Snowden thought Beijing would step in to protect him.
Why would he ever think that? It seems clear that Snowden, if he did not actually work for the Chinese, at least did their bidding. He insisted, for instance, that the Washington Post time its initial disclosures so that they would occur on the eve of last month's "shirtsleeves" summit between President Obama and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. When the Post refused to give a guarantee -- we learned this from Wolf Blitzer's June 10 interview with the paper's Barton Gellman -- Snowden dealt mostly with the Guardian, which evidently proved to be more pliable. The timing of the Guardian's disclosures benefited the Chinese enormously, changing the global narrative from Chinese hacking to American surveillance.
Similarly, in Hong Kong, Snowden's disclosures in the South China Morning Post also helped Beijing in its campaign to win hearts and minds there with his detailed allegations of U.S. surveillance of the city's people and institutions. And we should not be surprised: despite what Snowden said in the Guardian chat, he had met with Chinese officials. In fact, those officials encouraged him to give an interview to the Hong Kong paper's reporters, who then wrote a series of blockbuster articles about NSA surveillance of Hong Kong and China.
In his interview with the South China Morning Post, Snowden turned over documents that contained detailed technical information about NSA activities, including specific Internet Protocol addresses surveilled. That information, almost needless to say, was enormously beneficial to Chinese intelligence. It was in that encounter that Snowden, if he had not done so before, then crossed the final line from "whistleblower" to traitor.
The Chinese then did their best to make sure that American officials did not get the opportunity to interrogate Snowden. The last thing they wanted was for the U.S. to have the opportunity to learn the extent of China's penetration of the NSA and the FBI in Hawaii. Therefore, they ensured he left Hong Kong before the city could "surrender" him. Albert Ho, one of Snowden's attorneys, has publicly stated that Beijing approached him through intermediaries who said his client should leave Hong Kong. And as we know by now, this is exactly what Snowden did.
By that time, there was no point for China to give him a Beijing palace where he could pet phoenixes. Ministry of State Security agents had been in contact with Snowden while he was in Hong Kong and probably obtained all they wanted from his four laptops and one thumb drive. Bill Gertz of the Washington Free Beacon reports that U.S. officials say Russian and Chinese intelligence operatives obtained access to, in the words of Gertz, "highly classified U.S. intelligence and military information contained on electronic media" held by Snowden.
At this moment, we do not know whether Snowden, during his time in Hong Kong, actually traveled to China, as some believe, and we do not know the extent of his dealings with the Chinese. Yet the information we do possess -- and the suppositions we can reasonably make -- point to troubling conclusions.
We know Snowden revealed technical information of particular value to the Chinese, lied about his contacts with them, and helped them further diplomatic and public relations objectives. We know Beijing not only permitted him to leave Hong Kong but also ensured that he did so. Perhaps the relationship between Snowden and China was even more insidious than this, but even if it were not, he prejudiced American security and long-term interests to a significant degree.
Snowden was working for Chinese intelligence or alongside Chinese intelligence. In either event, the damage to U.S. security interests has been incalculable.
Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China and a columnist at Forbes.com. Follow him on Twitter @GordonGChang.
Related Topics:  China  |  Gordon G. Chang

Will Hamas Be Next?

by Khaled Abu Toameh
July 8, 2013 at 4:00 am
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The problem is that many Palestinians in the Gaza Strip still do not see Fatah as a better alternative to Hamas.
These are tough days for Hamas. After losing the military and financial support of Iran and Syria, Hamas has now lost its main allies in Egypt.
The downfall of the Muslim Brotherhood regime in Egypt is a severe blow to Hamas, whose leaders are now studying ways of avoiding a "revolution" that could end their rule in the Gaza Strip.
But although Hamas has suffered a major setback in wake of the ouster of Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, it is premature to talk about the beginning of the countdown for the collapse of the Hamas regime.
The Gaza Strip has neither an organized opposition nor an army that could assist in removing Hamas from power.
One of the biggest fears is that if Hamas is toppled, those who would replace it would not be any better. This is particularly true in light of the growing popularity of various Islamist groups operating inside the Gaza Strip, some of which are affiliated with al-Qaeda.
Hamas supporters were the first to celebrate the toppling of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, and the first to take to the streets in jubilation over the victory of the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, Morsi, in the general elections a year ago.
Morsi's rise to power had been seen by Hamas and other Muslims as a "divine victory": Allah's gift to his believers.
Contrary to Mubarak, Morsi's regime adopted a completely different policy toward Hamas.
While Mubarak dealt with Hamas and the Gaza Strip as a "security" issue, Morsi sought to legitimize the Palestinian Islamist movement in the eyes of the whole world.
For the first time ever, and much to the dismay of the West Bank's Palestinian Authority leaders, under Morsi, Hamas leaders became regular and welcome guests in the Egyptian presidential palace.
Morsi's rise to power emboldened Hamas in a way that allowed it further to tighten its grip on the Gaza Strip.
For Hamas, there was nothing better than having the full political backing of Egypt, the largest and most important country in the region.
During the last war between Israel and Hamas, "Operation Pillar of Defense," and much to the dismay of Fatah's Palestinian Authority leaders in the West Bank, Morsi dispatched Egyptian prime minister Hesham Qandil to the Gaza Strip, in an unprecedented show of solidarity with the Hamas regime.
Qandil's visit was followed by a series of mutual visits to the Gaza Strip and Egypt by Hamas and Egyptian cabinet ministers and top officials.
Although Hamas leaders have publicly played down the significance of the Egyptian coup, reports from the Gaza Strip suggest that some leaders of the Islamist movement are already nervous.
According to one report, the new rulers of Egypt have issued an order banning all Hamas leaders from entering their country.
Another report said that Egyptian security authorities have arrested several Hamas members based in Cairo and Sinai on charges of involvement in terror attacks against Egyptians.
Hamas leaders who tried to contact senior Egyptian government officials over the past few days said their phone calls were being totally ignored.
The crisis in Egypt also seems to be have had a negative impact on the day-to-day lives of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip: there seems to be a severe shortage of petrol, natural gas and basic goods as a result of severe restrictions imposed by the Egyptian authorities along their shared border.
Palestinian Authority officials and other Palestinians are now hoping that the latest revolution in Egypt will accelerate or facilitate the overthrow of the Hamas regime. Some Palestinian Authority representatives have even called on Palestinians in the Gaza Strip to learn from the Egyptian model and rise up against Hamas.
The new rulers of Egypt may even turn out to be extremely hostile to Hamas, especially in light of claims that Hamas members had been dispatched to Cairo and other Egyptian cities to help Morsi supporters crush the opposition.
But does all this mean that the countdown for Hamas's collapse has begun? Not necessarily.
Unlike Egypt, Palestinians in the Gaza Strip do not have an army that could come to the rescue. Also, Fatah's supporters in the Gaza Strip do not have enough weapons to launch an Egyptian-style coup against Hamas.
Hamas, on the other hand, has a huge arsenal of weapons and thousands of militiamen who are quick to act against any individual or group who challenge its regime.
The Gaza Strip also does not have a credible, powerful, well-organized secular opposition that could rally thousands of Palestinians behind it.
Today, the only choice in the Gaza Strip is between Hamas and Fatah. The problem is that many Palestinians still do not see Fatah as a better alternative to Hamas.
Related Topics:  Khaled Abu Toameh

The Great Turkish Conspiracy

by Robert Ellis
July 8, 2013 at 3:00 am
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Turkey's AKP government is looking for a scapegoat for the anti-government demonstrations. The protesters, the foreign media, the Jews -- anyone will do, so long as it is not the government.
When it comes to explaining the widespread protests against the Turkish prime minister and his authoritarian rule, Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party [AKP] has apparently decided. It is everyone else's fault.
The first target for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's wrath was naturally the demonstrators, who were called looters and vandals, terrorists and marginal. When opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu from the Republican People's Party [CHP] declared his support for the demonstrators, Erdoğan accused him of behaving like a militant from a terrorist organization.
Erdoğan also repeatedly alleged that the protesters had shown disrespect for Islam by entering the Dolmabahçe mosque in Istanbul with their shoes on and carrying beer bottles. Video clips, however, circulating in Turkey show that the mosque had been turned into a first-aid station to treat some of the 7,000 injured in the clashes with the police.
Erdoğan has said he would show a 20-minute video to prove that protesters had been disrespectful to Islam, but this video has not yet materialized. Instead, the muezzin has insisted that he did not see anyone consume alcohol within the mosque or hold a bottle containing alcohol. As a man of faith, he explained, he could not lie.
On his return from North Africa at the beginning of June, Erdoğan widened his scope and launched an attack on an "interest rate lobby," which he claimed was threatening Turkey with speculation in the markets. Early last year he had lashed out at the same "lobby" for trying to stifle Turkish growth, but this time he threatened to "choke" stock market speculators. At neither time was the Prime Minister specific as to who this lobby consists of; but according to Turkish daily, Sabah, owned by Çalık Holding, where Erdoğan's son-in-law is CEO, Bloomberg News is the main culprit. In another speech, Erdoğan also criticized three Turkish conglomerates -- Koç, Doğuş and Sabancı -- which own three major Turkish banks.
The AKP government's reactions, in a search of scapegoats, have become increasingly paranoid. In an address to his parliamentary group, Erdoğan has said that the anti-government demonstrations were part of a deliberate attempt by internal and external lobby groups to damage Turkey's image and economy; consequently, he called on activists to "see the big picture" and "understand the plot."
Mass rallies were held in Istanbul and Ankara, as well as AKP strongholds in Kayseri, Samsun and Erzurum, under the theme: "Let's spoil the big game and make history." Eleven foreign nationals, accused of helping to provoke the Gezi Park protests, had earlier been detained, an action that caused Erdoğan to ask the rally in Istanbul, "What are the foreigners, coming from various places of the world, doing in Taksim?"
Furthermore, he claimed the demonstrators were responsible for attacking the AKP building in Ankara, and even for the car bombs in Reyhanlı near the Syrian border. In Kayseri, in Central Anatolia, he said that the demonstrations aimed at sabotaging the Kurdish peace process and that the demonstrators were being played like puppets.
In Samsun on the Black Sea coast, Erdoğan alleged the same game was being played over Brazil with the same symbols, the same posters, the same Twitter and Facebook, and the same international media. Moreover, he said, the protests were being led from the same center. Three days later in Parliament, he repeated his accusations against the foreign media, in particular the BBC.
At a meeting with the chairman of the Confederation of Turkish Tradesmen and Craftsmen [TESK], Prime Minister Erdoğan went one step further: "Those against whom we said 'one minute' are now delighted," referring to his confrontation with Israel's president, Shimon Peres, at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2009.
Erdoğan claimed to have received intelligence reports about a series of conspiracies three months earlier, and, in a television interview, his cup-bearer, EU Minister Egemen Bağış, said that the Gezi Park protests were planned six months ago in an effort to trigger regime change in Turkey.
Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Beşir Atalay has also blamed those who envy Turkey's growth, together with the Jewish diaspora, for the Gezi Park unrest, but his press office has since issued a denial: "In his speech [Deputy PM Atalay] has never intended, uttered or indicated anything to offend Jewish citizens of Turkey or Jewish communities around the world."
In addition, the Islamist daily Yeni Şafak has reported that the protests are an anti-Erdoğan plot concocted in February by the American Enterprise Institute and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
AKP deputies have submitted a resolution to Parliament, calling for an investigation into the Gezi Park protests. The Ankara Police Department has also submitted a summary of the proceedings of the events to the public prosecutors, in which it claimed that anti-government media networks, journalists, NGOs, supporter groups, artists and marginal groups have incited and guided the demonstrations, and for which it held foreign media outlets -- such as CNN, BBC and The Economist -- responsible.
Moreover, the Ministry of Education has reportedly requested from provincial education directorates lists of the names of school administrators and teachers who participated in the protests.
Between May 20 and June 19, the Istanbul stock market, two-thirds of which is foreign-owned, fell by nearly 20%; accordingly, Turkey's Capital Markets Board [SPK] has opened a detailed investigation into financial transactions in this period. Brokers have been requested to provide telephone records, written instructions, orders sent over the Internet and all chat-logs related to instructions from foreign clients.
The Union of Turkish Bar Associations [TBB] has warned against a witch-hunt, but no matter: someone must be held responsible.
Robert Ellis is a regular commentator on Turkish affairs in the Danish and international press.
Related Topics:  Turkey  |  Robert Ellis

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