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Top Stories
NYT: "For
years, Iran's leaders have scoffed at Western economic sanctions,
boasting that they could evade anything that came their way. Now, as they
seek to negotiate a deal on their nuclear program, the leaders are
acknowledging that sanctions, particularly those applied in 2010 on
international financial transactions, are creating a hard-currency
shortage that is bringing the country's economy to its knees. This was
evident in New York last week when Iran's new president, Hassan Rouhani,
emphasized the need to act swiftly to resolve the standoff over Iran's
nuclear program, perhaps in three to six months. While there may well be
political reasons for him to be in a hurry, Mr. Rouhani and other
officials admitted that the sanctions were hurting... Because of the
sanctions, oil sales, which account for 80 percent of the government's
revenue, have been cut in half. While Mr. Ahmadinejad had asserted that
Iran had $100 billion in foreign exchange reserves, the total had shrunk
to $80 billion by mid-2013, according to a new study by Roubini Global
Economics, a research firm based in New York, and the Foundation for
Defense of Democracies, a Washington group that advocates strong
sanctions against Iran. But even that vastly overstates the amount
readily available to Iran. Three-quarters of the $80 billion is tied up
in escrow accounts in countries that buy Iranian oil - the result of an
American sanctions law that took effect in February. Under that law, the
money can be spent only to buy products from those countries. Even
gaining access to the remaining $20 billion is difficult - it has to be
physically moved in cash because of Iran's expulsion from the global
banking network known by its acronym Swift, which had allowed the money
to be transmitted electronically." http://t.uani.com/19eBxh4
NYT:
"Neither President Obama nor Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of
Israel mentioned Hassan Rouhani after their meeting at the White House on
Monday morning. They didn't have to: President Rouhani, whom Mr.
Netanyahu has labeled a 'wolf in sheep's clothing' and whom Mr. Obama
phoned last week in the first leader-to-leader contact between the United
States and Iran in 34 years, was the obvious, if unspoken, subject of the
discussion. Mr. Netanyahu said he was comforted to hear Mr. Obama declare
that Iran's 'conciliatory words have to be matched by real actions.' The
president said he would take no options off the table, including military
action, to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. It was a
disciplined show of unity by two leaders who have clashed in the past
over how to deal with the nuclear threat from Iran, and may soon face
further strains as the United States tests the diplomatic overture made
by Mr. Rouhani last week at the United Nations... But on Monday, Mr. Netanyahu
held his fire. He called for the sanctions to be kept in place until Iran
showed 'verifiable' progress in the nuclear negotiations. And he credited
Mr. Obama's pressure tactics, along with the threat of military action,
for bringing Iran to the negotiating table. 'Iran is committed to
Israel's destruction,' he said, 'so for Israel, the ultimate test of a
future agreement with Iran is whether or not Iran dismantles its military
nuclear program.'" http://t.uani.com/18ozQe7
Video:
UANI President Dr. Samore appears on MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell
Reports" http://t.uani.com/15IqLty
Sanctions
AP:
"Vice President Joe Biden says U.S.-led sanctions against Iran have
been the most effective sanctions regime ever. Biden says Iran has a
choice. He says Iran can suffer deepening economic sanctions or negotiate
its way back into the global community and economy. He says the U.S.
doesn't know whether Iran is willing to do what's necessary to resolve
concerns about its nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/15IlSAz
WT:
"The European Union's foreign policy chief warned Monday against
rushing to ease economic sanctions on Iran following last week's
diplomatic breakthroughs between the Islamic republic's new leadership
and the West. 'We should be ready to move if they are ready to move, but
not ready to move until they are ready, they have done it and they have
proved it and we are confident in them,' Catherine Ashton said at the
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington." http://t.uani.com/15IpPoM
Reuters:
"India aims to cut Iranian crude imports by 15 percent this fiscal
year, the oil secretary said on Tuesday, differing from the oil minister
who recently said he wanted to hold the shipments at last year's levels.
Ahead of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to the United States last
week, Oil Minister M. Veerappa Moily said Iranian imports should be held
steady at 260,000 barrels per day (bpd) to save as much as $8.5 billion
in foreign exchange as Tehran accepts partial payment in rupees. However,
Oil Secretary Vivek Rae, the Petroleum Ministry's top bureaucrat, said on
Tuesday that India targets oil imports of around 220,000 bpd from Iran in
the year through March 2014. It was not immediately clear what triggered
the shift in stance... Rae said Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals and
Essar Oil - the only Indian refiners currently importing Iranian crude -
will import about 80,000 bpd each this fiscal year. Three other refiners
- Hindustan Petroleum, Bharat Petroleum and Indian Oil Corp - can each
import about 1 million to 1.5 million tonnes for the year, or about
20,000 bpd, Rae said." http://t.uani.com/18oyOyQ
Reuters:
"The Vatican bank is likely to close all accounts held by foreign
embassies, following concerns about large cash deposits and withdrawals
by the missions of Iran, Iraq and Indonesia, according to people with
knowledge of the situation... Withdrawing and depositing cash is not
illegal, and embassies may legitimately transfer money in and out of the
Vatican provided they offer sufficient details on the origin of the money
and purpose of the transaction. But international financial standards
require banks to carry out thorough checks on the origin of large cash
transfers and on the effective beneficiaries to rule out the possibility
of money laundering, tax evasion and other financial crimes. Checks are
heightened if the transactions involve countries, such as Iran and Iraq,
considered by international regulators to be at high risk for financial
crimes, and if high-level diplomats are involved." http://t.uani.com/1dTZlGc
Terrorism
National Post:
"A Vancouver dentist injured in a 1997 Hamas suicide bombing has
filed a lawsuit against Iran - the first such case to be launched under a
new Canadian law that allows victims to collect damages from state
sponsors of terrorism. Dr. Sherri Wise, 43, filed the notice of claim in
British Columbia Supreme Court on Friday. It names the Islamic Republic
of Iran and the powerful ministry of security as defendants. It does not
seek a specific dollar amount in damages. Dr. Wise was volunteering at a
Jerusalem dental clinic for underprivileged kids when she was badly
wounded when three bombs packed with nails and glass exploded. She is
suing Iran because it has long armed, financed and trained Hamas to
conduct terror attacks. The suit comes more than a year after the federal
government enacted the Justice for Victims of Terrorism Act, which paved
the way for such cases by lifting state immunity from countries that
sponsor terrorism. Iran was designated a state sponsor last September,
along with Syria." http://t.uani.com/15GFdHM
Foreign Affairs
AFP:
"Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif accused Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of lying in his rejection of Tehran's
overtures to the West as a cosmetic 'charm offensive'. 'We have seen
nothing from Netanyahu but lies and actions to deceive and scare, and
international public opinion will not let these lies go unanswered,'
Zarif said in an interview with Iranian television broadcast on Tuesday.
Zarif was speaking from the United Nations, where Netanyahu was set to
the address the General Assembly later Tuesday, the same forum where last
year he used a cartoon bomb as a prop to underline how close he believed
Iran was to producing a nuclear warhead. 'For 22 years, the Zionist
regime has been lying by repeating endlessly that Iran will have the
atomic bomb in six months,' Zarif said." http://t.uani.com/19k0guB
Opinion &
Analysis
Jeffrey Goldberg
in Bloomberg: "OK, if it's Monday, it must be
skunk-at-the-garden-party time. There are two main reasons to doubt the
possibility of an Iran-U.S. rapprochement, an idea that gained new life
after Iran's charm offensive at the United Nations last week and a phone
call between the presidents of the two countries on Sept. 27. The first
is general to the Middle East, the second is specific to Iran. The
general reason is easy to understand, and all-encompassing: Nothing at
all works in the Middle East, so why should the U.S. find success
convincing Iran to give up its nuclear program in exchange for lifting
sanctions? ... Since nothing works in a zero-sum region where politics is
defined by fanatics, I don't feel particularly optimistic about the
current effort. I used to be more of an optimist, by the way, but this is
what happens over time. It wouldn't be surprising, by next spring, if we
saw the White House acquiesce to congressional demands for harsher
sanctions on the Iranian regime, after several rounds of mostly fruitless
negotiations. The second reason is specific to Iran's actions last week.
Many people are forgetting that Hassan Rouhani, the president of Iran and
the commander of Operation Offensive Charm, is a moderate only in
comparison to his predecessor, the unhinged Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Rouhani
has been a superior soldier for Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, a defender of the regime, and an anti-American propagandist for
much of his professional life. (Not often mentioned during last week's
love-in was Rouhani's post-Sept. 11 commentary, in which he blamed the
attacks on the 'wrongs and mistakes of American policies' and argued that
the U.S. Air Force shot down Flight 93, which crashed in the Pennsylvania
countryside.) There's no proof yet that Rouhani's ultimate goals for Iran
are different than those of the hardliners. Let's look at what he didn't do
at the UN last week: He not only refused to comply with the many Security
Council resolutions demanding that Iran cease all uranium-enrichment
activities, he also refused to endorse the idea that Iran is obligated to
pay any attention to the Security Council's wishes. (Remember, the many
resolutions demanding that Iran cease enrichment passed with the
unanimous approval of the five permanent members.) Until proven
otherwise, there's no reason to think that Rouhani, who is acting on
Khamenei's behalf, is ready to shut down his country's nuclear program,
despite airy statements to the contrary. The Iranian leadership wants to
maintain its ability to produce nuclear weapons while at the same time
convincing the West to lift sanctions. So far, Rouhani's difference is
one of style, not of substance. Americans are easily charmed by smiling
clerics, and Rouhani understands this. In 2007, he said, 'We should talk
carefully so as not to provoke the enemy, we should not give them any
excuses.' Who is the enemy? The U.S. is the enemy. According to the
Washington Institute for Near East Policy's Steven Ditto, Rouhani wrote
in 2003: 'The fundamental principle in Iran's relations with America --
our entire focus -- is national strength. Strength in politics, culture,
economics, and defense -- especially in the field of advanced technology
-- is the basis for the preservation and overall development of the
System, and will force the enemy to surrender.' Ditto, who has read much
of Rouhani's voluminous output, says the quotation 'encapsulates the
overwhelming impression gleaned from Rouhani's history and writings: his
identity as a revolutionary ideologue and defender of the Iranian
System.' Ditto argues that Rouhani is simply a cleverer tactician than
some of his colleagues. 'What separates Rouhani from traditional
ideologues, however -- and what fuels perceptions of him as a `reformist'
-- is his belief that certain kinds of political and social reform can
facilitate the defense, upkeep, and legitimization of the Iranian regime.'
In other words, a pleasant phone call with the president of his chief
adversary -- and the prospect of extended negotiations -- are legitimate
if they help advance the goals of the regime. 'In light of this
background, there will be no moral, political, or intellectual meeting of
minds between Rouhani and the West,' Ditto writes... President Barack
Obama seems somewhat enthusiastic about the possibility of real
rapprochement with Iran. But Gary Samore, who was until recently Obama's
chief adviser on Iranian nuclear issues, does not. When I spoke to him
this morning, he was acerbic: 'The Iranians are going to try to see how
far they can get on charm alone.' That, for now, is the game." http://t.uani.com/19eGyWY
Alon Pinkas in
Haaretz: "Contrary to what the punditocracy claims,
and with much fanfare, there has not been a substantial shift in
U.S.-Iranian relations. Not yet anyway. Yes, there was that phone
conversation between Presidents Obama and Rohani, analyzed ad
nauseaum. But in reality, the new phase in this decade-old saga of
'What To Do About Iran's Nuclear Program' is only beginning. The U.S. did
not - did not - offer new gestures, nor hinted in any way that sanctions
may be eased. In fact, President Obama reiterated that a military option
is no off the table. Iran, for its part, mellowed compared to the
incendiary, inciteful and hateful rhetoric of the Ahmadinejad days (yes,
we all miss him) but presented absolutely no new policy. Effectively, the
Iranian 'charm offensive' is over. Those who accuse Prime Minister
Netanyahu of party pooping the U.S.-Iranian temporary 'Entente Cordiale'
are forgetting two things: First, you can't poop a party that ended
before you showed up and secondly, this entente has been a U.S. policy
objective ever since President Obama articulated it in 2009, calling it
then 'engagement'. The multilateral approach, through the UN Security
Council as a mechanism or as a group, with the addition of Germany,
succeeded in pressuring Iran and generated sustained global awareness of
the Iranian nuclear program, but could not alter the trajectory of Iran's
ambitions and policy. Severe sanctions were imposed, exacting a high
price on Iran's economy, but sanctions were but a means to coerce
negotiations. It took the U.S. nearly five years (since President Obama
enunciated the 'engagement' policy) and the election of Rohani this June
to launch such talks, but here we are. Yes, Iran has an impressive and
consistent track record of duplicity and deceit. Yes, it would be
reckless to assume that Rohani is a born-again anti-proliferation wonk
who will forgo Iran's nuclear aspirations. But the only way to reach a
deal and install an intrusive inspections regime is through negotiations.
Mr. Netanyahu is right to express his doubts. The cost of miscalculation
is too high a price to pay, particularly for Israel. However, he is wrong
to dismiss this casually as just an Iranian ploy. Rather than 'declare
victory' and announce that while Israel has reservations, it welcomes
negotiations and prefers a diplomatic path, Israel is turning the Iranian
issue into an exclusively Israeli issue. This is not and should not be
the case. Former Obama Administration arms control expert, Gary Samore,
currently with UANI (United Against Nuclear Iran, an agile New York-based
advocacy group that Iran itself concedes has caused it significant
political and economic damage) said to Foreign Policy magazine: 'Nobody
is fooled by the charm offense; everybody understands the Supreme Leader
is seeking nuclear weapons. No matter how many times Rohani smiles, it
doesn't change the basic objective of the program.' Samore is right, but
direct negotiations, coupled with a credible, serious, tacit and quiet
military threat is the only modality that can work." http://t.uani.com/GzAPiS
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a
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