Thursday, October 3, 2013

Eye on Iran: Iranian Cyber Warfare Commander Shot Dead in Suspected Assassination







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Daily Telegraph:
"Mojtaba Ahmadi, who served as commander of the Cyber War Headquarters, was found dead in a wooded area near the town of Karaj, north-west of the capital, Tehran. Five Iranian nuclear scientists and the head of the country's ballistic missile programme have been killed since 2007. The regime has accused Israel's external intelligence agency, the Mossad, of carrying out these assassinations. Ahmadi was last seen leaving his home for work on Saturday. He was later found with two bullets in the heart, according to Alborz, a website linked to the Revolutionary Guard Corps. 'I could see two bullet wounds on his body and the extent of his injuries indicated that he had been assassinated from a close range with a pistol,' an eyewitness told the website. The commander of the local police said that two people on a motorbike had been involved in the assassination." http://t.uani.com/GB7bJ6

AP: "U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Thursday it would be 'diplomatic malpractice of the worst order' not to test Iran's willingness to comply with international demands over its nuclear program... 'We have an obligation,' Kerry told reporters in Tokyo after he and Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel met with the foreign and defense ministers of Japan. 'It would be diplomatic malpractice of the worst order not to examine every possibility of whether or not you can achieve that before you ask people to take military action and do what you have to do to prevent it.' 'You have to exhaust the remedies before you ratchet up to a next tier of remedies that may have more dramatic consequences,' he said. However, Kerry stressed that Rouhani's apparent overtures would be looked at with an extremely critical eye. 'There is nothing here that is going to be taken at face value and we have made that clear,' he said. 'It is not words that will make a difference, it's actions, and the actions clearly are going to have to be sufficient that the world will understand that not only will they not be on the road to get a weapon but there is no ability to suddenly break out and achieve that.'" http://t.uani.com/174Lqbr

AP: "President Hassan Rouhani said Wednesday that Iran is open to discussing 'details' of nuclear activities including the enrichment of uranium, hinting that the Islamic Republic is willing to broaden the terms of negotiations with world powers. He spoke shortly after receiving support from a wide range of legislators for his policy of reaching out to the West... In his remarks Wednesday after meeting with the Cabinet, Rouhani said Iran has drawn up a 'precise plan' to put on the table at the next round of talks with the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany in Geneva later this month. 'Iran's enrichment right is not negotiable but we must enter into talks to see what would the other side proposes to us about the details,' he said." http://t.uani.com/172rx3K
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Fars: "Referring to his phone talk with Obama on the way back to Iran from New York, he said, 'Before my trip (to New York), the Americans had sent 5 messages to arrange a meeting between me and Obama, but I turned them down.' 'Then they raised a plan for a brief meeting, but I didn't agree (with it) much; we didn't disagree with (the idea to have) a meeting, but its grounds weren't prepared.'" http://t.uani.com/1aMcT4J

Reuters: "Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they were investigating the death of an officer in a 'horrific incident', but denied media reports it was an assassination... 'In the wake of a horrific incident involving one of the IRGC officials ... the matter is being investigated and the main reason of the event and the motive of the attacker has not been specified,' said an IRGC statement, quoted by Sepah news. Sepah, which is operated by the Revolutionary Guard, ran its report under the headline 'Denial of news reports of the assassination of one of IRGC's officials.'" http://t.uani.com/156SgzK

JPost: "Hours after Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu railed against Iran's nuclear program from the UN General Assembly's stage on Tuesday, member states elected Iran to be the rapporteur for the Disarmament and International Security Committee. Iran's representative will replace Norwegian diplomat Knut Langeland. The position's duties include relaying information and reports on disarmament and armament activities between the committee and the General Assembly. The First Committee on Disarmament and International Security, which is comprised of all 193 member states, 'considers all disarmament and international security matters' and 'seeks out solutions to the challenges in the international security regime.'" http://t.uani.com/GB8JTl

AP: "A West African man has pleaded not guilty in a Florida courtroom to U.S. charges of trying to broker an illegal deal to ship tons of uranium ore from Sierra Leone to Iran. Patrick Campbell entered the plea at a brief hearing Wednesday in Fort Lauderdale. The 33-year-old Campbell was indicted on a charge of attempting illegal exports to Iran. The charge carries a maximum 20-year prison sentence and up to $1 million fine." http://t.uani.com/1fLry6A 

Sanctions

Daily Beast: "With the government shut down, most U.S. officials enforcing sanctions on Iran are not at work, potentially undermining pressure on Tehran as U.S.-Iran negotiations recommence, according to administration officials, lawmakers, and experts. The Treasury Department has furloughed approximately 90 percent of the employees in its Office of Terrorist Financing and Intelligence (TFI), which is responsible for the monitoring of illicit activities and enforcement of sanctions related to several countries, including Iran, Syria, and North Korea, Treasury officials told The Daily Beast. The drastic scaling down of personnel working on those activities comes just as the Obama administration is engaging in its first set of diplomatic negotiations with the new Iranian government, led by President Hassan Rouhani. A subsection of TFI, the Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC), which implements the U.S. government's financial sanctions, has been forced to furlough nearly all its staff due to the lapse in congressional funding, said a Treasury Department spokesman." http://t.uani.com/1bztUQE

Daily Telegraph: "Iran has foreign exchange reserves that cover less than three months of imports, a new report says, but warned that the regime could still 'muddle through' long enough to develop a nuclear weapons capability by mid-2014. As the US Congress debate further sanctions, the report found that Iran's banking system was under growing stress and would have little capacity to defend its currency if it came under renewed pressure... Iran now has about $80bn in forex reserves, of which only about $20bn is immediately accessible, according to estimates in the report that was co-authored with Roubini Global Economics, an international consultancy. Under the terms of sanctions, Iran has been able to sell oil to some countries, such as China, Japan and India, but can only spend the proceeds, estimated at around $50bn, on humanitarian and non-sanctioned goods. 'These funds would not be available to Iran if the currency came under pressure,' Rachel Ziemba, Roubini Global Economics, who said that Iran's economy was now ranked well below most in the Middle East and emerging market countries as its banking system came under increased strain. 'The economy has become less flexible which reduces the government's ability to deal with external shocks, and that in our view may account for a more accelerated political timeline that members of the Iranian administration have put forward in recent days,' she added." http://t.uani.com/15KC6yz

AFP: "Iranians hope international sanctions that have suffocated the economy could be lifted if relations improve between Tehran and Washington after President Hassan Rouhani's historic phone chat with Barack Obama... Economy Minister Ali Tayyebnia warned in August that the official figure of 3.5 million unemployed, or 11.2 percent of the workforce, could rise to 8.5 million with a wave of young people on the verge of entering the job market. While inflation has dropped slightly, it currently stands at 39 percent. Consumer prices have nearly doubled in a year, making common commodities such as staples rice, cooking oil and chicken too expensive for many people, according to the official statistics organisation. Iran's currency, the rial, has been grossly devalued since late 2011. But since Rouhani's charm offensive targeting the international community, the rial has started to stabilise. Today, some 30,000 rials buy one US dollar, compared with a rate of 38,000 to one just a few months ago... Mehdi Miremadi, head of the Franco-Iranian chamber of commerce, told AFP that he was optimistic but said it was vital not to forget how bad the economic situation is. 'If certain sanctions are not lifted within six months, with the priority on those affecting banking transactions, half of large companies running on imported materials will close,' he said. Iranian firms have had to resort to back channels just to survive, he said, explaining that the cost of doing business has risen by 25 percent because of this." http://t.uani.com/1hnnfd9

Daily Telegraph: "Peter Voser, chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell, and Christophe de Margerie, his counterpart at France's Total, used the Oil & Money conference in London on Tuesday to highlight the potential energy windfall if sanctions preventing international oil companies from dealing with Tehran were lifted.  'Longer term, Iran's oil and gas resources will have to be developed to meet demand,' Mr Voser said. He was echoed by Mr de Margerie, who said that he hoped doing business with Iran would again be permitted 'as soon as possible, not just for Total but for the world and for Iran. Any country cannot stay out of the system.' Before the tightening of sanctions against Iran a few years ago, Shell and Total were two of the most active companies doing business with the Islamic republic." http://t.uani.com/18SvTiC

Trend: "Iran-Turkey trade turnover has reached some $10.357 billion during first 8 months of the current year, Iranian Tasnim news portal reported. Meanwhile the figure in the same period of the last year was $17.527 billion, which indicates a fall by 41 percent. Iran has imported about $3.133 billion worth of goods from Turkey during the period which indicates a decrease by 63 percent compared to the same period of last year, the report said. According to the report, Iran has exported $7.224 billion worth of goods to Turkey during first 8 months of the current year, which indicates a decrease by 19 percent." http://t.uani.com/1aOfbk5

Bloomberg: "The combined carrying capacity of oil tankers leaving Iranian ports last month rose 21 percent from August, vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. The implied capacity of departing ships gained to the equivalent of 1.30 million barrels a day from 1.07 million barrels, according to signals gathered by IHS Maritime, a Coulsdon, England-based research company. The data may be incomplete because not all ship transmissions are captured." http://t.uani.com/1dXLD5r 

Foreign Affairs

Times of Israel: "Iran's President Hasan Rouhani on Wednesday struck back at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu following his address at the UN the day before, saying that Israel's outrage at Iran's empowerment pleases the Islamic Republic. 'Israel is upset to see that its sword has gone blunt and Iran grows more powerful day by day,' Rouhani told reporters in Tehran, according to the semi-official Fars News Agency.  Rouhani also promised to continue Iran's nuclear program with 'full power.' ... 'That an aggressive regime in the region names Iran with coarse language is the cause of our happiness,' Rouhani said following a cabinet meeting." http://t.uani.com/1a2lLlS

Opinion & Analysis

Vali Nasr in NYT: "The international agreement to destroy Syria's stockpile of chemical weapons has put diplomacy back at center stage of American foreign policy. But enforcing America's 'red line' in Syria is only a prelude to dealing with the thicker, redder line around Iran's nuclear program. Last week's charm offensive by Iran's new president, Hassan Rouhani, and his seeming show of flexibility augurs well for a diplomatic resolution. But America would be naïve to assume that Iran is negotiating from a position of weakness. To the contrary, Iran has come out of the Arab Spring better positioned than any of its regional rivals, and the turmoil in Syria, its ally, has paradoxically strengthened it further. Witness Mr. Rouhani's statements that distinguished Iran from its Arab neighbors and asserted that it was uniquely positioned to broker a resolution.  Over the past five years America has thought that only an Iran weakened by economic sanctions would agree to a nuclear deal. Iran's economy is indeed in dire straits, which helps explain the decision by its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to put forward Mr. Rouhani, a former nuclear negotiator, as his interlocutor with the West. It's also true that Iran has been isolated as the sectarian tenor of the civil war in Syria incensed the country's largely Sunni population against Shiite Iran and its clients: the governments in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. Iran's diplomatic flexibility is serious, but should not be mistaken for willingness to surrender. Iran does not see itself as vanquished. Its political system is still the most steadfast and resilient in the region. It is reveling in a newfound stability on the back of a surprisingly smooth presidential election. There were no street protests in Tehran this year, like those that paralyzed Tehran in 2009, Cairo in 2011 and Istanbul earlier this year. Indeed, Mr. Rouhani's government, by freeing political prisoners and potentially relaxing controls on the press and social media, is showing its confidence. Arab anger notwithstanding, there is agreement across the region that Iranian support for Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, has been effective. That consensus buttresses Iran's claim to regional power and influence. Syria has showed Iran to be the only regional actor capable of successfully running a war in another country - and one with which it does not share a border. Iran has given the Assad regime money and weapons, deployed fighters in Syria and created a regional alliance with the Shiite government in Iraq and its proxy militia Hezbollah in Lebanon to help Mr. Assad. The West thinks of Russia as Mr. Assad's vital ally, but it is Iran that holds the cards to his survival... In short, as America approaches talks with Iran over its nuclear program, it must not assume that Iran is ready to surrender. America's reduced credibility in the Middle East, because of its waffling over Syria, is an equally important dynamic in the equation. America will be going to the negotiating table without the credible threat of war, facing an Iran basking in newfound domestic stability and benefiting from its pivotal role in Syria." http://t.uani.com/172tiOq

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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