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Top Stories
AP:
"Iran does not plan to unblock Facebook and Twitter for the general
public even if some top government officials use it, the minister of
telecommunications and information technology said Monday. State TV
quoted Mahmoud Vaezi as saying that the ban on the popular social
networking sites will remain in place. Hours later however, he denied
making such remarks and said the issue is still under study. President
Hasan Rouhani uses Twitter and Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has
both a Twitter and a Facebook page. There is a Twitter and Facebook page
in the name of Iran's top leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which appears to
be genuine although Khamenei himself doesn't tweet." http://t.uani.com/1ffwtLK
AFP:
"Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif insisted on Monday
that his country has the 'absolute right' to enrich uranium on its soil,
ISNA news agency reported. 'The mastery of civil nuclear technology,
including the enrichment of uranium, on Iranian soil is the absolute
right of Iran,' Zarif said at a meeting in Tehran with the visiting Swiss
deputy foreign minister, Yves Rossier. 'The events of recent years have
shown that the approach of threats and sanctions have not ensured the
interests and objectives of the other party, and the continuation of this
approach is the repetition of past mistakes which cannot prevent Iran
from mastering civilian nuclear technology,' he added." http://t.uani.com/1bEANnj
Reuters:
"Oil and container trade between India and Iran has been disrupted
due to uncertainty over insurance cover, leaving some ships stranded
outside ports in both countries, industry sources said. The delays had
occurred because New Delhi had not yet extended approval for Iranian
underwriters to provide insurance for container and tanker vessels
calling at Indian ports, they said. European Union sanctions targeting
Iran's disputed nuclear programme have meant insurers based in Europe -
who account for the majority of cover for the tanker market - cannot
insure Iranian oil and other shipments, leading to the emergence of new,
untested insurance providers. A three-month approval by India for Iran's
Kish P&I and Moallem Insurance Co to cover container and tanker
vessels calling at Indian ports lapsed on September 27. Three oil cargoes
were on vessels waiting at anchorage to call on Indian ports, while
several container ships were stranded at the Iranian port of Bandar
Abbas, oil industry and shipping sources said. India receives crude
imports from Tehran in Iranian vessels, while exports of non-oil
commodities and industrial goods use the vessels of Iran's Hafiz Darya
Shipping Lines (HDS) and Safiran Payam Darya Shipping Lines
(SAPID)." http://t.uani.com/16PtE1O
Nuclear
Program
RFE/RL: "As a debate simmers
in Iran over the spirit of openness being displayed on the world stage by
the country's president, his administration is turning to the Iranian
people to hear what they think about his new approach. President Hassan
Rohani's recent announcement that he was commissioning a survey to
determine whether Iranians favor or oppose ties with the United States
has been met with criticism among hard-liners. But pollsters who ran into
trouble with the authorities following a similar survey taken nearly a
decade ago see the effort as a way for the new president to strengthen
his domestic political position. In ordering two polling agencies to
conduct the survey, Rohani reportedly said it should show what percentage
of Iranians support the government's course of engagement with the United
States and what percentage does not... The last time a poll pertaining to
relations with the United States was conducted in Iran, several pollsters
ended up in jail on charges of espionage and acting against national
security. In 2002, a survey published by the official IRNA news agency
showed that between 68 to 74 percent of the residents of Tehran favored
restoring ties with the United States. The findings did not sit well with
the Iranian authorities, and some individuals connected to the effort
were subsequently imprisoned." http://t.uani.com/GKLTtk
Syria
Conflict
Reuters:
"The United States said on Monday it would be more open to Iran
taking part in a long-delayed peace conference on Syria if Iran publicly
backed a 2012 statement calling for a transitional government in Syria.
The United States accuses Iran of supporting the government of Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad in a civil war that has run for more than two
years, killed more than 100,000 people and eluded all efforts at a
peaceful settlement. The June 30, 2012, 'Geneva Communique' sought to
chart a path to a diplomatic resolution of the conflict. It was agreed by
major powers such as the United States and Russia, Gulf states and
Syria's neighbors Iraq and Turkey - but not Iran, which was not invited
to those talks. Russia and the United States agreed in May to try to hold
a 'Geneva II' conference to implement the agreement, which called for a
transitional governing authority to rule Syria but left open the question
of whether or not Assad must leave power." http://t.uani.com/17RZHM4
Human
Rights
AFP:
"A Tehran court has jailed dissident Mehdi Khazali for six years for
acting against national security, media reports said Tuesday. Khazali was
charged in Tehran's Revolutionary court for 'disturbing national security
and propaganda against the establishment,' the Fars news agency reported,
quoting defence lawyer Mostafa Tork Hamedani. Khazali, released on bail
in June after being arrested in January, will appeal the verdict, the
lawyer said... In February 2012, Khazali had been reportedly convicted of
the same charges, and was handed sentences including 14 years in jail,
according to human rights organisations. A fierce critic of hardline
ex-president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Khazali has been arrested on several
occasions in recent years. He was among scores of reformist politicians,
journalists, human rights campaigners and student activists detained in
popular protests against Ahmadinejad's disputed re-election in
2009." http://t.uani.com/17S4Svx
Free Beacon:
"Numerous organizations and activists have called for closer
scrutiny and condemnation of Iran's human rights and civil liberties
abuses ahead of the latest round of negotiations on the country's nuclear
program. As new President Hassan Rowhani garners heightened media
coverage for his purported efforts to reach a rapprochement with the West
and alleviate crushing economic sanctions, those groups say many of the
Iranian government's abuses against its own people persist. The Iranian
government has 'continued its crackdown on civil society' since the
disputed 2009 presidential elections, according to the U.S. State
Department's Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2012." http://t.uani.com/15k4DIL
Domestic
Politics
Al-Monitor:
"According to Iran's Central Bank, inflation exceeded 40% on many
goods in the month of Shahrivar (Aug. 23-Sept. 22) in comparison to
prices of the previous year, the biggest price increase since 1995. While
international sanctions on Iran have caused severe economic problems,
domestic economic policies have also contributed greatly to inflation and
other difficulties. Under former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, subsidies
on fuel and basic goods were eliminated in favor of cash payments to
families according to their income and number of family members. This
plan was approved by parliament and seemed to have the backing of all
state institutions. According to Shargh newspaper, while President Hassan
Rouhani has said that the cash subsidy payments would remain intact until
the end of the Iranian calendar year (March 2014), a parliamentary budget
committee is reviewing plans to eliminate the top three economic brackets
from receiving any more subsidies due to a deficit of 14 billion toman
(approximately $4.5 billion) in this program. This would affect 22.5
million people, about 30% of the total population currently receiving
subsidy payments, according to Shargh." http://t.uani.com/1ffA9xa
Al-Monitor:
"A proposed law which has created a lot of controversy during the
past week in Iran can trace its roots to a verse from the Quran which
says, 'God has not made for any man two hearts inside his body. Neither
has he made your wives whom you declare to be like your mothers' backs, your
real mothers. Nor has he made your adopted sons your real sons. That is
but your saying with your mouths.' This verse from the holy book has
encouraged the media, as well as civil rights and children's rights
activists, to focus on a new law approved by the parliament, which allows
foster parents to marry their adopted children despite the fact that
parliament had originally intended to pass a law which forbade this type
of marriage... It appears that the complexity of the laws in Iran, and
the fact that many of them have their roots in the rules of Sharia, have
created a crisis between pro-democracy forces and more traditionalist
conservatives. In fact, those who oppose this amendment are aiming for
the complete eradication of the possibility of marriage between adopted
children and their foster parents." http://t.uani.com/18Mptkz
Opinion & Analysis
Jeffrey Goldberg
in Bloomberg: "Here is something to remember as
nuclear negotiations between the West and Iran appear set to recommence:
The Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, the putative moderate on whose
shoulders great American hopes have been placed, is proud of the work he
did to advance his country's nuclear program -- and also of his efforts
to stymie Western attempts to stop that work. Rouhani didn't talk about
this during his recent visit to the United Nations. He came bearing a
different message: Iran seeks a peaceful resolution to its decade-old
nuclear standoff with the international community. Yet in May, shortly
before he was elected, Rouhani appeared on state-run IRIB TV to defend
his nuclear work, appearing defensive as a hard-line interviewer
essentially accused him of bowing before the West. We may one day thank
the interviewer, Hassan Abedini, for pushing Rouhani on the subject.
According to an account of the conversation published in the Times of
Israel, Rouhani at one point became flustered by the insinuation that, as
Iran's chief nuclear negotiator 10 years ago, he kowtowed to the West by
bringing his country's nuclear activities to a stop. 'We halted the
nuclear program?' he asked, rhetorically. 'We were the ones to complete
it! We completed the technology.' Abedini pushed Rouhani harder, claiming
that uranium enrichment at a facility in Isfahan had been suspended while
Rouhani was in charge. Rouhani denied the accusation, and then claimed
credit for the development of a heavy-water reactor in Arak in 2004. 'Do
you know when we developed yellowcake? Winter 2004. Do you know when the
number of centrifuges reached 3,000? Winter 2004.' Reading accounts of
Rouhani's combative interview made me wonder if this might represent his
personal Hudaybiyyah moment. What is a Hudaybiyyah moment? The moment
when a mask slips... The lesson of this sad episode was to listen more
carefully to what leaders actually say. Rouhani, in the interview, was in
the midst of a presidential campaign and getting pressured from his
right. So it's possible that he reacted defensively in the heat of the
moment. But consider this statement, which he wrote in 2011: 'While we
were talking to the Europeans in Tehran, we were installing equipment in
Isfahan.' These are not the words of someone who wants to end Iran's
nuclear program. Taken together, Rouhani's statements sound like those of
a man who is proud of the program and believes he may have devised a way
to carry it to completion: By speaking softly, smiling and spinning the
centrifuges all the while. It's obviously worth testing Rouhani's
intentions through intensive diplomacy and negotiations, but it's vital
to conduct this test while paying careful attention to what he's saying
at home. Avoiding a Hudaybiyyah moment isn't impossible, unless we're not
paying attention." http://t.uani.com/19wJjmT
Michael Singh in
FP: "In an Oct. 3 op-ed in the New York Times, Vali
Nasr asserts that Iran is approaching the nuclear negotiations slated to
resume Oct. 15 from a position of strength and that American ambitions
should therefore be modest. He suggests limited sanctions relief in
exchange for 'concrete steps to slow down Iran's nuclear program and open
it to international scrutiny.' Nasr's prescription, however, would
provide neither U.S. President Barack Obama nor Iranian President Hasan
Rouhani with what they need. Iran is not riding nearly as high as Nasr,
the dean of Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International
Studies, suggests, but is in fact under tremendous economic, political,
and military pressure. The charming self-assurance projected by Rouhani
and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif masks a desperate need to make a deal
with the United States. As much as if not more than other Middle Eastern
countries, Iran's security has been threatened by recent events in the
region. The Syrian regime is Iran's main ally and conduit for projecting
power; it may have been granted a reprieve from American attack, but it
is by no means secure. And Syria is just one part of a broader,
increasingly sectarian regional struggle that has dented the once-high
popular prestige of Iran and its proxies. Furthermore, U.S. military
credibility may be at low ebb, but Iran cannot discount U.S. and Israeli
military threats. An attack by either would not only set back Iran's
nuclear efforts, but would expose the weakness of its military and the
hollowness of its bombastic rhetoric. Economically, Iran is suffering
mightily. Iran's oil revenues have dropped from $8 billion monthly in
2011 to just $3.4 billion today, much of which cannot be repatriated due
to sanctions that require Iran's customers to pay in local currency.
Sanctions have also isolated Iran from the international financial
system, contributing to high unemployment and inflation, stagnant
economic growth, and a plummeting currency. These pains come in the wake
of Iran's widespread 2009 political unrest, which was followed by the
brutal suppression of dissidents and the marginalization of reformist
politicians and even pragmatic conservatives. The regime's repression was
effective but had the effect of uniting a coalition of otherwise
disparate political forces in opposition to hard-liners dominating the
regime. Rouhani's election in June was a result of (or at least the
supreme leader's response to) these dynamics, but was not itself a
solution to Iran's domestic problems. In voting for Rouhani, the Iranian
people overwhelmingly endorsed the platform of social and economic change
on which he campaigned. But to deliver on his promises, Rouhani needs not
merely the lifting of one or two sanctions, but broad relief from them.
And thus, he needs our help. Iran's predicament provides Obama with both
opportunity and leverage, neither of which should be squandered. But
Rouhani will surely seek to alleviate Iran's suffering at the minimum
price to its nuclear options, offering transparency and
confidence-building rather than far-reaching limits on Iran's nuclear
activities. The United States is susceptible to such arguments, as
Washington wants not just to reach a nuclear agreement but to ease
hostilities with Iran, and it is worried that the chance to do so may be
fleeting. But a limited nuclear agreement that leaves Iranian
capabilities in place, even if subject to enhanced inspections, will not
build confidence or stability. Inspections will raise tensions, not lower
them, when Iran inevitably objects to inspectors' desire for access to
sensitive military sites or denies activities for which the United States
has evidence, such as Iran's weaponization work. Similar efforts with
North Korea and Iraq in the 1990s and with Iran in the early 2000s
eroded, rather than built, trust." http://t.uani.com/19cHnfi
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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