Monday, October 7, 2013

Eye on Iran: Khamenei Criticises 'Some' of Rouhani's UN Diplomacy







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AFP:
"Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Saturday criticised some aspects of President Hassan Rouhani's landmark UN visit in which he spoke to his US counterpart but voiced broad support. The comments were the first public response by Khamenei, who wields ultimate authority in Iran, to Rouhani's overtures to the West in New York last week, which were capped by a historic 15-minute telephone conversation with US President Barack Obama. 'We support the diplomatic initiative of the government and attach importance to its activities in this trip,' Khamenei told military commanders and graduating cadets in remarks reported by his website, Khamenei. However he added-without elaborating-that 'some of what happened in the New York trip was not appropriate.' ... 'We are pessimistic towards the Americans and do not put any trust in them. The American government is untrustworthy, supercilious and unreasonable, and breaks its promises,' he said... The American administration 'is a government that is seized by the international network of Zionism, and has to put up with the usurper (Israeli) regime and show flexibility towards it,' Khamenei said." http://t.uani.com/1gjwYU8

AFP: "US Secretary of State John Kerry on Monday urged Iran to come up with new nuclear proposals, rebuffing Tehran's position that the onus is now on foreign powers to unblock the long-running impasse. Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Sunday that the previous foreign offer, made by the 'P5+1' group at two meetings in the Kazakh capital of Almaty before the June election of moderate President Hassan Rouhani, was no longer valid. But Kerry, while welcoming recent overtures including a historic contact between Rouhani and US President Barack Obama, said the ball remained in Iran's court. 'The group of six put a proposal on the table at Almaty and I don't believe as of yet Iran has fully responded to that particular proposal. So I think we are waiting for the fullness of the Iranian difference in their approach now,' he told reporters in Indonesia after meeting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. 'So what we need are a set of proposals from Iran that will fully disclose how they will show the world that their programme is peaceful.'" http://t.uani.com/1a4WMgG

AP: "President Barack Obama says U.S. intelligence agencies believe Iran is still 'a year or more' away from producing a nuclear weapon, an assessment he acknowledged was at odds with Israel. 'Our estimate is probably more conservative than the estimates of Israeli intelligence services,' Obama said in a wide-ranging interview with The Associated Press... 'Rouhani has staked his position on the idea that he can improve relations with the rest of the world,' Obama said. 'And so far he's been saying a lot of the right things. And the question now is, can he follow through?' But Obama said Rouhani is not Iran's only 'decision-maker. He's not even the ultimate decision-maker,' a reference to the control wielded by Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei." http://t.uani.com/15gslWe
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Nuclear Program

Times of Israel: "In a video clip now gaining fresh attention as the international community seeks to assess his credibility, Iran's President Hassan Rouhani bragged on Iranian state television just four months ago that he and the regime utterly flouted a 2003 agreement with the IAEA in which it promised to suspend all uranium enrichment and certain other nuclear activities... Far from honoring the commitment, in which Iran said 'it has decided voluntarily to suspend all uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities,' Rouhani told the interviewer that all Iran did was merely suspend 'ten centrifuges' in the Natanz enrichment facility. 'And not a total suspension. Just reduced the yield.' ... Incredulous at the notion that Iran had bowed to international pressure and halted nuclear activities in that period, Rouhani asked the interviewer, 'We halted the nuclear program? We were the ones to complete it! We completed the technology.'" http://t.uani.com/1b33UfI

Reuters: "World powers negotiating with Tehran over its disputed nuclear program must come up with new proposals before talks in Geneva on October 15-16, Iran's foreign minister said. The United States wants Iran to respond to proposals by world powers in February as a starting point for talks. If the parties cannot agree on how to start the negotiations, it casts doubt on whether a resolution can be agreed within the six months in which Iranian President Hassan Rouhani says he wants a deal. Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States - the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council - plus Germany, the so-called P5+1, said in February they want Iran to stop enrichment of uranium to 20 percent, ship out some stockpiles and shutter a facility where such enrichment is done. In return, they offered relaxation of international sanctions on Iran's petrochemicals and trade in gold and other precious metals... 'The previous P5+1 plan given to Iran belongs to history and they must enter talks with a new point of view,' Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said in an interview with Iranian state television late on Saturday. 'The players must put away this illusion that they can impose anything on the Iranian people.'" http://t.uani.com/17eR0am

McClatchy: "For years, Tehran has dismissed U.N. concerns that the Iranian military secretly studied how to place a nuclear warhead atop a ballistic missile. It has rejected incriminating documents as forgeries, barred U.N. inspectors from quizzing top scientists and demolished suspected research sites. Now that record is about to come center stage as negotiations are set to resume Oct. 15 on resolving the international standoff over Iran's nuclear program. As the negotiations unfold, the United States is sure to demand that Tehran disclose the entire history of its program as part of any agreement to the nuclear crisis, which newly elected Iranian President Hassan Rouhani insists he's ready to resolve within months. That could be one of the thorniest parts of the talks, say current and former U.S. officials, diplomats and other experts. That's because Iran is likely to spurn any accord that results in a public - and humiliating - confirmation that it was doing what its senior leaders have repeatedly denied: developing nuclear weapons... The Iranians 'have to be given a graceful way' that 'allows them to acknowledge that this research was going on without confessing that it was a government program,' said Gary Samore, the head of research at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, who served for four years as Obama's top arms control adviser." http://t.uani.com/1e3R8iM

AP: "Iran's nuclear chief said Sunday that authorities arrested four workers in an alleged sabotage plot involving one of the country's nuclear facilities, hinting that authorities were looking at suspected international links such as Israel. The reports quoting Ali Akbar Salehi did not give further details or name any specific countries in possible connection to the investigation. But his reference to probes into 'hostile' nations suggested Iran could point the finger at Israel - which is already blamed by Iran for a series of targeted slayings of nuclear scientists over the past four years." http://t.uani.com/GIliwi
Sanctions

LAT: "Obama administration officials hoping to end the nuclear standoff with Iran not only face a nation legendary for hard-line negotiating, they also must deal with members of Congress who may be just as unyielding. In talks with Iran set to resume in Geneva in mid-October, the White House must weigh two competing challenges: coaxing Tehran to stop uranium enrichment and other nuclear work, and winning support from a Congress that is skeptical of easing sanctions against Iran. In an era when Congress is divided on almost everything, the desire to bash Iran is nearly universal on Capitol Hill, uniting tea party conservatives such as Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and liberals like House Minority Leader Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco). Since only Congress can permanently lift the bruising sanctions it has imposed on Iran, lawmakers can torpedo any deal if they believe the White House is giving too much to Iran's pragmatic new president, Hassan Rouhani, or his hard-line boss, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 'We have a tremendous amount of leverage,' said Rep. Ed Royce (R-Fullerton), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and co-author of the toughest Iran sanctions legislation ever adopted by the House." http://t.uani.com/1b2ZVjp

NYT: "He called himself the 'economic basij,' a reference to Iran's hard-line paramilitary organization and defender of the Islamic Revolution. He drove a black Mercedes 500 SL and wore a $30,000 watch, as befits a man who put his self-worth at $13.5 billion. Not bad for a 39-year-old who began his career in the 1980s selling sheepskins and emerged more recently as a critical actor in Iran's effort to evade United States sanctions on its oil sales. But it has all come tumbling down for the tycoon, Babak Zanjani, whose accounts were frozen by the United States Treasury in April and who has been blacklisted by the European Union... His rise and now possible fall have opened a window into the secretive, shadowy world of Iranian tycoons who have made their fortunes, at least in part, by helping Iran evade the sanctions intended to thwart its nuclear program... 'This is what I do - antisanctions operations,' Mr. Zanjani said. 'I am a businessman who has done his job well. Since I was placed under sanctions they haven't managed to sell even three million barrels of oil.'" http://t.uani.com/15gtrRW

Reuters: "The tempting taboo of Iran's oil and gas riches has moved a step nearer for Western oil companies, lining up to woo Tehran if sanctions finally succumb to a diplomatic thaw. U.S. oil firms - barred by Washington from Iran for nearly two decades - planned to meet Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh last week at the United Nations, encouraged by the new tone in Tehran, industry sources said. 'We're willing to talk: Iran's got tremendous potential,' said a senior executive from a major U.S. oil company who requested anonymity while preparing for exploratory talks... Executives from U.S. and European companies will be seeking new opportunities to meet with Iranian oil officials on neutral ground, industry sources said. U.S. and European companies contacted by Reuters declined comment for this story. 'There is no embargo on talks,' said a senior European oil executive, who requested anonymity." http://t.uani.com/16taNY6

Reuters: "After years of being caught in the geopolitical crossfire over Iran's disputed nuclear programme, Iranian businessmen in Dubai are daring to hope that signs of a diplomatic thaw will allow crippling economic sanctions to be lifted. The wary optimism in Dubai, traditionally a major hub for Iranian commerce, reflects a tantalising prospect for businessmen across the world: that progress toward an agreement on Iran's nuclear plans could allow it to rejoin the global trading and financial system... The size of the economic opportunities means political pressure to lift the sanctions could grow rapidly in Western capitals if nuclear talks seem to be going well. But there would also be losers from an economic reopening of Iran. Some businessmen have prospered during its isolation - including some within Iran itself, who used political connections to profit from policies resisting the sanctions. They may lobby against the country's rehabilitation... Tehran does not release timely, reliable data giving a full picture of the economic damage. But the central bank says gross fixed capital formation, adjusted for inflation, plunged 19.4 percent from a year earlier in the nine months to last December 20. This implies a massive shortfall of public and private investment during that period alone worth roughly $35 billion at the free-market rial/dollar exchange rate. Foreign companies would hope to supply much of the shortfall - in the form of factories, machinery, buildings and infrastructure - if they were permitted to resume normal trade and investment with Iran." http://t.uani.com/1cnnVS9

Times of Israel: "News that ONE UN would be hosting Rouhani had sparked protests back in August, when a group called United Against A Nuclear Iran (UANI) urged the hotel to turn the Iranians away. 'Certainly the ONE UN is aware that President Rouhani is the public face of a brutal regime that is a sworn enemy of the United States, and which is under strict sanctions by the US government and the international community,' the group's CEO, Mark Wallace, wrote in a letter to the hotel... UANI has a history of intimidating New York City hotels that cater to Iranian governmental delegations. Over the years, it managed to persuade several such venues to rethink. This time last year, UANI staged loud demonstrations in front of the Warwick Hotel, where Ahmadinejad and his men were staying, leading the hotel and its new general manager Peter Walterspiel to say no to Iran in 2013. The fact that Obama is now on speaking terms with 'the public face of a brutal regime,' however, may take some of the wind of UANI's sails from now on... The anti-Iran activists from UANI are not impressed. 'The Iranian regime used the ONE UN not just for accommodation, but to host events as part of its New York City charm offensive,' the group's communications director, Nathan Carleton, told me. 'We wish the ONE UN had not hosted Rouhani and his delegation, and hope they will not do the same next year. When it comes to commerce with Iran, private businesses should put principle above profit.'" http://t.uani.com/GHAn11

AFP: "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday said sanctions on Iran are close to 'achieving their goal' of dismantling Tehran's nuclear enrichment capability and should not be relaxed. 'The sanctions on Iran are working. They are very strong; they are a moment away from achieving their goal,' he said ahead of the weekly cabinet meeting. 'The sanctions must not be eased before reaching the goal of dismantling Iran's enrichment capability -- the ability to produce nuclear weapons,' Netanyahu said... 'We do not oppose diplomatic negotiations with Iran,' Netanyahu said in reference to the US invitation to Iran to engage in dialogue. 'We insist that these negotiations lead to the dismantling of Iran's enrichment capability.'" http://t.uani.com/1bBVTTv

NYT: "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said Friday that he would meet with European leaders next week in hopes of influencing the negotiations scheduled to begin Oct. 15 over Iran's nuclear program, part of what he described as a 'comprehensive international struggle.' 'I will emphasize the fact that the sanctions on Iran can achieve the desired result if they are continued,' Mr. Netanyahu said upon returning to Israel from a five-day visit to the United States. 'The world must not be tempted by the Iranian stratagem into easing sanctions as long as the Iranians do not dismantle their military nuclear program.'" http://t.uani.com/1a4Y2QM

The Hill: "A leading Republican declared himself 'puzzled' Friday by the Obama administration's decision to furlough employees in charge of Iran sanctions. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce (R-Calif.) asked Treasury Secretary Jack Lew in a letter to reconsider the decision. He suggested the department was violating its own legal guidance by determining that employees working on the sanctions aren't 'essential.' 'As you are surely aware,' Royce said, 'the Administration's own legal guidance' states that functions and activities that 'address emergency circumstances' should continue to operate even during a shutdown. The Iran sanctions regime fits that description, he said. 'Needless to say, these recent staffing decisions leave me puzzled,' Royce added. 'I respectfully ask that you reconsider these ill-advised staffing decisions that undermine support for vigorous Iran sanctions and other critical national security efforts.'" http://t.uani.com/GHkt7i

Syria Conflict

UPI: "Iran and Syria have a deal allowing Damascus to station its fighter jets in Tehran to keep them safe, a German intelligence report revealed. Germany's Der Spiegel magazine Sunday said a classified report by German intelligence revealed the agreement between Tehran and Damascus in November 2012 to allow Syria to station its fighter jets on Iranian soil and gain access to the aircraft when needed.  The report noted the agreement was in addition to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards units Tehran has sent to assist the Syrian regime to fight the Syrian rebels." http://t.uani.com/1fU6ESS  
Human Rights

HRANA: "Three prisoners have been hanged in Ardebil on charge of drug trafficking as well as two others who were executed on charge of murder in Babol in public." http://t.uani.com/198SJ43

RFE/RL: "Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who has been giving his 400,000 Facebook fans regular reports during his recent trip to the UN in New York, updated his status on October 4 while he was airborne on the flight home. He said that his flight from the United States had been delayed and that he might not be able to catch his next flight to Tehran. He added that he just wanted to greet his fans from above: 'It's 8:30 a.m. New York time and 4 p.m.  according to the time of our dear Iran. I don't know where I am exactly, and what the local time is. I was supposed to give you an [update] from Tehran. But I just realized that the plane has the possibility to access the Internet....' This is how one Facebook user reacted: 'Dr. [Zarif] try to go to Facebook.com on your phone. If it's blocked you've reached Tehran.' The last time we checked the comment had received some 7,000 'likes.'" http://t.uani.com/177oGYo 

Foreign Affairs

AP: "Israel on Sunday indicted a Belgian-Iranian man its prime minister singled out in a high-profile speech at the United Nations on charges of spying for Iran. Israel's Justice Ministry said Ali Mansouri took notes on the security screenings at Israel's international airport and photographed the U.S. Embassy in Tel Aviv and a separate classified security installation that it did not identify. Israel's Shin Bet security agency announced Mansouri's arrest last week, saying Iran recruited him last year and sent him to Israel to spy. He was arrested on Sept. 11 trying to leave Israel's international airport." http://t.uani.com/1fUB5ID  

Opinion & Analysis

Abolhassan Bani-Sadr in CSM: "Since the hostage crisis 34 years ago, the Iranian regime has made the United States a linchpin of its domestic and international politics. To normalize relations with the US would mean that the regime would have to deprive itself of this linchpin. For a still-powerful faction within the leadership, normalization would spell the end of the regime. They will thus try to oppose it in any way they can. But there is a real possibility of a negotiated deal on Iran's nuclear program. The key to understanding President Hassan Rouhani's turnaround at the United Nations - and its contradictions - can be found in Iran's past behavior. As a whole, Mr. Rouhani's talks and interviews while visiting New York last month demonstrated once again that, in Iran, foreign policy dictates domestic politics and not vice versa. The regime has always used international crisis to consolidate its domestic control - until the costs outweigh the benefits. Since the early days of the Iranian revolution, the Iranian regime has always pushed crisis forward to a point beyond which it can no longer continue. The regime then ends up 'drinking the poison chalice of defeat' (a term Ayatollah Khomeini used when agreeing to end the war with Iraq)... Rouhani's speech at the UN showed strong signs that the regime has found itself in the same situation again. The country will now have to pay a price for its disastrous policies. Rouhani is seeking to stem the damage and change course so the country can move on. We saw this in the speech, cleared by Iran's supreme leader, which revealed the deeply embedded fears within the regime. One of the fears expressed in the speech was the open admission that sanctions have been effective in deeply damaging the economy. Another was the admission that the factor of 'time' is working against Iran. This is why Rouhani said that he wants to reach a deal within three to six months. The third fear was expressed when he described the regime as the 'regional power.' This was one of those bold assertions that are necessary to cover up the reality. The Iranian regime is not a 'regional power' but actually quite weak. It is not lost on Rouhani and his faction that, in order to maintain its current geo-political position, Iran has had to take a large amount of money from its impoverished economy and spend it on countries like Syria and on Hezbollah in Lebanon. And let's not forget that the main cause of Iran's current disastrous economic situation is not the result of sanctions, but of sheer ineptitude in management as well as massive financial corruption by the Revolutionary Guards and other actors within the military-financial mafia. The current attempt to shift Iran's nuclear policy is the latest desperate move by a regime seeking to ensure that any path toward normalization will be accompanied by a US guarantee not to follow a policy of regime change." http://t.uani.com/1fUFTxL

Afshin Molavi in The Weekly Wonk: "Iran's 1979 revolution still reverberates across the world. A revolution in the truest sense, it swept away the old order, delivered a new one, reordered regional and global geopolitics, and spawned hope, inspiration, joy, terror, destruction, despair and disenchantment. The one thing it didn't do was improve people's living standards. Iran's rulers, like all men of revolutions, live in the long shadow of the revolution that made them. To them, the revolution is both home and prison. As home, it is a source of identity; as prison, it locks them in ideological boxes, and spawns holier-than-thou tests of will between purists and pragmatists. One thing we know about modern revolutionaries: they rarely make sensible policy choices that benefit their own people. They are too busy living up to the 'ideals' of their revolution, fighting with foes, real or imagined, and, of course, remaking the world. Even 34 years on, the mere fact that new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani feared shaking President Obama's hand in public at the United Nations and offered only a tepid endorsement of the Holocaust's veracity tells the story of a political elite still boxing in the shadows of 1979. Meanwhile, as Iran's leaders have been trying to consolidate their revolution and spread it across the region, they've missed out on a far more consequential global revolution: the rise of emerging markets." http://t.uani.com/1fcMvpX

Claudia Rosett in Forbes: "As world powers prepare for nuclear talks with Iran next week in Geneva, U.S. negotiators and their cohorts would do well to review the history of nuclear deals with another rogue state: the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. As Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reminded the United Nations last week, North Korea offers Iran a prime example of how a rogue state can parlay nuclear climbdown deals into time and opportunity to cheat - reaping benefits while still working toward nuclear weapons. In 2005, North Korea agreed to a widely hailed diplomatic deal to give up its nuclear weapons program in exchange for aid and other concessions. A year later, North Korea conducted its first nuclear test. Since then, rolling right over a much celebrated 2007 nuclear freeze deal, collecting aid and diplomatic concessions along the way, and surviving a father-son transition of despotic power, North Korea's regime has conducted two more nuclear tests, in June, 2009 and February, 2013. In other words, the North Korean nuclear playbook didn't just work for that first nuclear test in 2006. It is still working. North Korea's people are hungry and oppressed, the Pyongyang regime is laboring under sanctions, but having cheated its way through a series of deals going all the way back to the nuclear freeze of the 1994 Agreed Framework under President Clinton, North Korean tyrant Kim Jong Un not only has a nuclear weapons program, but appears to be honing the weapons. This warning is urgent. Not only does North Korea offer terror-sponsoring Iran a model of how to get away with going nuclear, but the two have plenty of direct dealings. Since Iran's 1979 Islamic revolution, North Korea has been one of Iran's closest allies. This partnership is based on a shared hostility toward the U.S. and other free societies, and has long been cemented by a neat match between North Korea's weapons industry and need for money, and Iran's oil wealth and desire for weapons." http://t.uani.com/1bQ9rY4

Stephen Carter in Bloomberg: "When it comes to U.S. foreign policy, an overused compound adjective may be playing havoc with our rational faculties. Consider CNN's account of last week's historic meeting between U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani 'appointed Zarif, a western-educated former ambassador to the United Nations, as his lead nuclear negotiator. The move was similarly seen as a gesture at improving relations with the West.' ...  Again and again, the trope appears: 'Western-educated' as a sort of marker for 'moderate' or 'a man we can work with.' It's hard to see what other purpose could be served by the constant invocation of the same compound adjective except to suggest to the (Western) reader that Zarif is somehow 'one of us.' ... Zarif isn't the first to receive this treatment. Long before the Syrian civil war began, we were favored with endless references to the 'Western-educated' Bashar al-Assad, whom starry-eyed observers seemed to expect to return home and overturn the dictatorship his father's party had built. More recently, the intrepid Anna Therese Day sat down to interview a quartet of 'Western-educated, radical jihadists' affiliated with al-Qaeda. What exactly is going on here? Why do journalists find it so important to tell us when foreign leaders -- particularly around the Middle East -- have been educated in the West? Perhaps they believe that the encounter with Western values, Western texts, Western thought will work an ineluctable change for the better in those exposed to them. But this is hope, not fact. The notion that education possesses such power to set the young on the proper moral path has an undeniable appeal, especially to those of us in the academy. But it is almost certainly false. Indeed, one need not strain terribly to hear in such commentary the distant echoes of the British Empire, whose colonialism was justified by the need to bring civilization to what they used to call the lesser breeds without the law. The idea was that the encounter with the West (Europe, civilization, modernity) would change traditional societies for the better... Education at the contemporary university is not aimed at instilling a deep sense of right and wrong. As Yale University historian Donald Kagan pointed out last spring in his moving farewell address, today's academy does an excellent job of teaching the skills of critique but fails to provide a sufficient grounding in Western values to explain what critique is for. Adds Kagan: 'There is, moreover, no attempt to shape good character, for the better universities lead the country in the direction of a kind of relativism, even nihilism.' Kagan is right. A Western education that fails to defend Western values is unlikely to make a moral difference in the life of the student. One can know all the great texts and still do terrible things. Perhaps we should retire the phrase 'Western-educated,' at least as an index of moderation. That someone has attended even the best schools the West has to offer tells us nothing about the degree of his ideological drive or the depth of his love of power. Certainly we cannot, on such little information, hazard a guess about anyone's taste for Western-style democratic reforms." http://t.uani.com/1afFkHu

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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