Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Eye on Iran: West Unlikely to Offer Immediate Sanctions Relief in Iran Talks







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Reuters:
"With a week until negotiations over Iran's nuclear program resume in Geneva, Western diplomats are playing down any suggestion that Iran's new openness on the world stage will result in any immediate or broad loosening of sanctions. At the same time, they hope a new tone is being established and that the talks on October 15-16 will at last deliver an opportunity to make progress on ending the decade-long dispute over Tehran's nuclear program. Senior officials from the United States and Europe have said repeatedly they are not ready to offer any concessions until Iran takes concrete steps to allay their concerns that the program is ultimately designed to develop atomic weapons... 'There is a risk we get carried away by the positive atmosphere,' one Western diplomat with close knowledge of the negotiations told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity." http://t.uani.com/1am4u7r

WSJ: "Iran is preparing a package of proposals to halt production of near-weapons-grade nuclear fuel, a key demand of the U.S. and other global powers, according to officials briefed on diplomacy ahead of talks in Geneva next week. Tehran in return will request that the U.S. and European Union begin scaling back sanctions that have left it largely frozen out of the international financial system and isolated its oil industry, the officials said. 'The Iranians are preparing to go to Geneva with a serious package,' said a former Western diplomat who has discussed the incentives with senior Iranian diplomats in recent weeks. 'These include limits on the numbers of centrifuges operating, enrichment amounts and the need for verification.' The package from the new government of President Hasan Rouhani could revitalize long-stalled negotiations over Iran's nuclear program and underpin an emerging diplomatic thaw between Washington and Tehran... In an opening salvo in the negotiations, Tehran is expected to offer to stop enriching uranium to levels of 20% purity, which international powers consider dangerously close to a weapons-grade capability. Iran is also expected to offer to open the country's nuclear facilities to more intrusive international inspections, the officials said. And Iran is considering offering the closure of an underground uranium-enrichment facility near the holy city of Qom, which the U.S. and Israel have charged is part of a covert Iranian weapons program, which Tehran denies." http://t.uani.com/1bH4ynr

AP: "Iran has more enriched uranium than it needs and plans to use that as a bargaining chip at nuclear talks in Geneva next week, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani said Wednesday. In an Associated Press interview, Larijani said the surplus uranium would be discussed with Western powers in the context of possibly halting its enrichment of uranium to 20 percent, which has been a key concession sought in the negotiations. 'Through the process of negotiations, yes, things can be said and they can discuss this matter,' he said, on the sidelines of a meeting of the world organization of parliaments. The 20-percent-enriched uranium is much closer to warhead-grade material than the level needed for energy-producing nuclear reactors." http://t.uani.com/1aacIhJ
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Nuclear Program

AFP: "US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has promised Israel the United States will be 'clear-eyed' and committed to ensuring that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons as Washington pursues engagement. Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon, whose government has pressed for a hard line, visited Washington a week before Iran meets six nations to ease international concerns on its nuclear program that have triggered a US-led campaign of sanctions. 'Secretary Hagel noted that while the United States intends to test the prospect for a diplomatic solution with Iran we remain clear-eyed about the challenges ahead,' Pentagon spokesman George Little said. The United States 'will not waver from our firm policy to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons,' he said." http://t.uani.com/16RgnFZ

Sanctions

AFP: "Pakistan has asked Iran for $2 billion in financing to build its side of a controversial gas pipeline that has drawn threats of US sanctions, Islamabad's petroleum minister said Tuesday. The Iranian side of the $7.5-billion project is almost complete, but Pakistan has run into repeated problems paying for the 780 kilometre (485 mile) section to be built on its side of the border. Pakistani petroleum minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi told AFP on Tuesday that the preparatory work was complete, but they had asked Iran to provide $2 billion for the construction work. 'All these issues will be discussed in a meeting which we have requested, but so far there is no reply from the Iranian side,' Abbasi said. 'They were busy in cabinet formation and I hope that this meeting will take place within this month.'" http://t.uani.com/16x4P8y

Bloomberg: "When Mohammad-Reza needed parts for his heater company in Iran last month, he carried a bagful of 500-euro notes on a plane to Dubai and paid his German supplier over coffee in a hotel lobby. Often, he says, he has to use even riskier channels. Mohammad-Reza, who declined to give his surname for fear of reprisals, says he uses informal currency transfers called hawala to get around the sanctions that cut Iran off from the global banking system. 'Everything's based on mutual trust,' he said in an interview in his Tehran office, describing a widely used network of unofficial middle-men. 'The currency shops in Tehran don't give you a receipt, and it's not clear when the supplier in Germany, the Czech Republic or South Korea will receive it. Sometimes money gets lost in transmission.' Like the Iranian economy, Mohammad-Reza's business has shrunk under the impact of the trade and currency curbs imposed by the U.S. and allies to restrain the Islamic republic's nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/19zBnLx

Syria Conflict

Reuters: "Iran rejects any conditions for taking part in a long-delayed peace conference on Syria, Iranian media reported, in effect dismissing a U.S. suggestion that Tehran back a call for a transitional government in Damascus. The United States accuses Iran of supporting the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in a civil war that has run for more than two years, killed more than 100,000 people and eluded all efforts at a peaceful settlement." http://t.uani.com/15ne3U3 
  
Human Rights

ICHRI: "The Iranian authorities should impose an immediate moratorium on executions in Iran given the alarming rise in the use of the death penalty in recent weeks, the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran and the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center said today. As World Day Against the Death Penalty approaches on October 10, the Judiciary should review the sentencing guidelines that allow for the use of capital punishment, and revise them in accordance with international standards, the human rights organizations added. In the two weeks between September 11 and September 25, Iranian officials hanged a record 50 individuals, primarily for drug-related offenses. 'While Rouhani was promoting a softer image of Iran internationally during his visit to New York two weeks ago, it was business as usual on the domestic front with scores of prisoners put to death following unfair trials,' said Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran. 'Since Rouhani's inauguration, the increasing number of prisoners being sent to the gallows is indefensible,' he added." http://t.uani.com/17fGaSz

AP: "A well-known Iranian blogger and veteran activist says a court has sentenced him to six years in prison over security charges. Mahdi Khazali told The Associated Press the sentence was for spreading 'propaganda' against the ruling establishment. He insists he did not break the law and will appeal to the verdict. The semi-official Fars news agency said Khazali was sentenced to five years for conspiracy against the country's security, and one year for spreading propaganda against the ruling system. In various past cases, Khazali was sentenced to nearly 16 years in prison on similar charges. The 48-year-old surgeon and publisher was released in early June after seven months in prison, partly on hunger strike." http://t.uani.com/1bbfwxg

IHR: "Two prisoners were hanged in the prison of Ahwaz (southwestern Iran) today, reported the state run Iranian news agencies." http://t.uani.com/15V66aX 

Domestic Politics

AP: "Iran's foreign minister fired back on Wednesday against hard-line critics of Tehran's groundbreaking outreach to the United States, accusing opponents of using fabricated news leaks and other tactics in attempts to undermine the effort. Mohammad Javad Zarif said the political battles had become so tense that it brought on back pain and spasms. He said on his Facebook page that he cancelled appointments and went to hospital for a check-up late Tuesday. The source of his distress: An article in a hard-line newspaper that Zarif said misquoted him on the subject of the new Iranian administration's outreach to the U.S. ... Foreign Minister Zarif claimed the hard-line newspaper Kayhan misquoted him Tuesday - publishing what was allegedly a confidential exchange - as criticizing some aspects of Rouhani's policies, calling it a 'bitter day.' Zarif vowed not to hold any further confidential assessments and said all his remarks would be for public scrutiny... Zarif claimed Kayhan misquoted him as saying Rouhani's 15-minute telephone conversation with President Barack Obama was 'inappropriate.' It also quoted Zarif as saying he believed it was wrong to hold a lengthy face-to-face meeting in New York with Secretary of State John Kerry." http://t.uani.com/19zpHyt

BBC: "The first Iranian official to cast doubt on the Holocaust was actually Ayatollah Khamenei. In January 2002, he referred to gas chambers in concentration camps as a story about which its truth was 'not clear' and which was being used as 'Zionist propaganda' to gain the sympathy of the world. Mr Ahmadinejad followed this line and in 2005, in his first year in office, called the Nazi extermination of the Jews 'a myth'. 'The Holocaust used to be something you only read about in history books in Iran,' says Mehdi Khalaji, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy." http://t.uani.com/1fZy0qC

Foreign Affairs

Reuters: "Britain and Iran have started talks aimed at restoring diplomatic relations two years after an angry mob ransacked the British embassy, Foreign Secretary William Hague said on Tuesday. The announcement reflects a significant thawing in Iran's relations with the West which imposed tough economic sanctions on Tehran after the embassy storming. It may raise hopes of a breakthrough in talks with world powers about its disputed nuclear program in Geneva next week. Hague said there had been a 'marked change' for the better in Iran's approach since Hassan Rouhani was election president in June, replacing hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. 'Both our countries will now appoint a non-resident charge d'affaires tasked with implementing the building of relations, including interim steps on the way towards (the) eventual reopening of both our embassies,' Hague told parliament." http://t.uani.com/1bbgKsk

Reuters: "Already aghast at U.S. reluctance to back rebels fighting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Tehran's strongest Arab friend, Saudi princes were horrified to see Washington reaching out to Hassan Rouhani, the new Iranian president, last month. 'The Saudis' worst nightmare would be the administration striking a grand bargain with Iran,' said former diplomat Robert Jordan, who was U.S. ambassador to Riyadh from 2001 to 2003. Although any meaningful U.S.-Iranian rapprochement looks distant, Obama telephoned Rouhani, an emollient self-described moderate, during the United Nations General Assembly." http://t.uani.com/16Ritpm  

Opinion & Analysis

Aaron David Miller & Mitchel Hochberg in FP: "Nobody knows how the Iranian nuclear dilemma is going to end. A good deal, a bad deal, no deal, a U.S. or Israeli military strike -- or none of the above? But amid all the uncertainty, at least one thing seems pretty certain: The mullahs are playing three-dimensional chess while the United States is playing checkers. This is not to say that the Iranians are diplomatic and strategic geniuses. After all, if they were that clever, they wouldn't be reeling under the impact of nation-crushing sanctions that are destroying their economy. Nor would everyone's favorite mullah -- President Hasan Rouhani -- be sending Rosh Hashanah tweets to all his would-be Jewish friends. The checkers reference is also not meant to suggest that the Obama administration is clueless about how to deal with Iran. While the president's handling of the Syrian chemical weapons issue did at times resemble a Marx Brothers movie, the administration knows the stakes on Iran are higher -- and that, precisely because of Syria, it must be more disciplined, focused, and deliberate. Yet Iran has certain natural advantages that the United States lacks. This doesn't invariably mean the United States will lose and Iran will win at nuclear roulette. But it does mean that Tehran can be far more agile, devious, and strategic in its quest for a nuclear weapons capacity than Washington can be in its effort to stop it. Here are brief explanations of these important advantages... The emergence of Rouhani is the perfect play against the United States, because his election as president really does reflect reformist tendencies within the Iranian public and polity. Sanctions are ruining the economy and hold the potential to create serious popular discontent. Why not send abroad a smiling, attractive, and forthcoming president who can tone down the anti-Israeli rhetoric, accept the Holocaust, and deny Iran has a nuclear weapons program, even while Tehran continues to pursue said program? The Iranian leadership can lie, dissemble, and pursue this two-track strategy without blinking an eye and without fear of any domestic backlash, all in an effort to see what kind of sanctions relief it can achieve and what it has to pay for it. If the price isn't right, it can recalibrate, turn on a dime, and effortlessly return to the hard-line rhetoric of Rouhani's predecessor." http://t.uani.com/19gGAdh

Saeed Ghasseminejad & Emanuele Ottolenghi in Times of Israel: "Most Western observers welcomed the end of Ahmadinejad's term with a sigh of relief, interpreting Rouhani's election as a sign of moderation and, perhaps, even a return of something like a reformist agenda. Western chanceries were adamant that anything was better than Ahmadinejad. This was a mistake, if an understandable one. Rouhani presented himself as a moderate. But he has begun meticulously replacing Ahmadinejad's friends with familiar faces who spent previous decades plundering the country's resources for their own personal profit, or in pursuit of proliferation activities that allowed them to make money on the side. Rather than reforming the system, there's every reason to believe Rouhani and his clique will be busy milking it. Take for example Mr. Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, Rouhani's minister of oil. As the holder of a key position that controls billions of dollars' worth of contracts and revenues, Zanganeh knows his way around. He served as oil minister under reformist president Mohammad Khatami. Reuters described him as a 'non-partisan technocrat.' In truth, Zanganeh's time at the oil ministry is associated with many high level corruption cases - most notably with handing contracts to Petropars under the buy-back scheme he invented to lure foreign oil companies back into the Iranian energy market during the reformist era. Petropars is a subsidiary company of the U.S. and EU sanctioned Naftiran Intertrade Company (NICO), which Zanganeh helped establish. During Zanganeh's tenure at the oil ministry, Petropars was chaired by Akbar Torkan, who previously served as Iran's minister of defense under Rafsanjani. Zanganeh rewarded Torkan's company with contracts worth billions - including several development phases of the lucrative South Pars natural gas field. Now the two occupy key posts in government once again - and the contracts are predictably flowing. Zanganeh and Torkan are but two in a long list of recent returnees to the corridors of Iranian power. Mehdi Karbasian, the newly appointed chairman of the Iranian Mines & Mining Industries Development & Renovation Organization (IMIDRO), is a board member of the U.S. sanctioned Parsian Bank and of Sepehr Energy Corporation, which has been winning oil contracts at an astonishing rate, despite its short existence and lack of proven record. Like Zanganeh and others, Karbasian never really left the control room - his resume reads like a U.S. Department of Treasury sanctioned entities' list, with past and present executive roles with companies in the shipping, heavy industry, food, transport, banking, and oil sectors. A veteran of the Islamic Republic's early glories and, like Zanganeh, a past holder of ministerial positions beginning in the early 1980's, Karbasian's business interests flourished during his time in the private sector thanks to government contracts. He is now back at the helm of a key government holding company, whose portfolio he needs to privatize - presumably to friendly investors like himself. Above him sits Minister of Industries and Trade, Mohammad Reza Nematzadeh, another veteran of the Islamic Republic's cabinet, who, in between government assignments, ran overseas companies for Iran's energy industry. Then there's Rouhani's Minister of Justice, Mostafa Pour Mohammadi, known for his blood-soaked past. In 1988, at the behest of the late Ayatollah Ruollah Khomeini and with the full knowledge and backing of former president Rafsanjani, Pour Mohammadi was responsible for the death of thousands of political prisoners, who were ultimately executed after infamous one-minute trials. For his solicitude in efficiently ridding Iran of so many political undesirables, Pour Mohammadi earned the post of deputy Minister of Intelligence once Rafsanjani became president in 1989. And his corruption extends beyond his reputation as a ruthless murderer." http://t.uani.com/1gq5axA

David Keyes in The Daily Beast: "Who knew the Iranian foreign minister was such a fan of Frank Sinatra? Shortly after the U.N. General Assembly last month, in the midst of his New York charm offensive, I asked Javad Zarif if he thought it was ironic that he enjoys posting on Facebook while his government bans the website in Iran. 'Ha! Ha!' he laughed heartily. 'That's life.' Well, life in Iran at least, where the regime Zarif represents routinely tortures dissidents, bloggers and journalists. I asked the foreign minister when Majid Tavakoli, one of Iran's most prominent student leaders and political prisoners, will be free. He answered with a straight face: 'I don't know him.' If you think Iran is duplicitous about its nuclear weapons program, just wait till you hear its deception on human rights. When I asked Iran's ambassador to the United Nations, Mohammad Khazaee, why the Iranian regime bans Facebook and Twitter, he looked at an aide and asked incredulously, 'Are the Facebook and Twitter banned in Iran?' I assured him they were. 'Personally, I don't do it, so I'm not involved,' he said. I pressed on. 'What is the Iranian government afraid of, that it bans these websites which are available in the rest of the world?' The ambassador shot back, 'May I ask you a question? Why is the American government afraid to let me go to Washington to talk to congressmen and senators?' Khazaee was referring to a 25-mile radius travel ban on Iranian diplomats. Khazaee, like the foreign minister, denied having heard of any of the prominent political prisoners I raised: Tavakoli, Shiva Ahari and Omid Reza Mir Sayafi, Iran's first blogger to die in custody. The only prisoner he admitted to knowing about was human rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh, who was recently released. 'I've only heard the name Nasrin Sotoudeh because of the media,' he said. A plea to Western media: keep highlighting Iranian political prisoners. Mention their names. Make them famous. It is, apparently, the only way senior Iranian officials hear about the human rights activists they jail. Though I introduced myself to Khazaee as the head of a human rights organization and a contributor to The Daily Beast, he claimed he did not hear this and asked that I not publish his words. 'I'm talking to you as a friend,' he said. 'Your government threatened the destruction of the state that I'm from [Israel], and therefore I don't really consider us friends,' I replied. Should journalistic deference be shown toward the representative of a theocratic regime which kills gays, jails journalists, and tortures bloggers? I don't think so. Everywhere Iranian diplomats go, they should be confronted with the names of imprisoned dissidents. So, Mr. Ambassador, I've decided to publish our exchange. In the words of your foreign minister, 'That's life.'" http://t.uani.com/1bZl9ja

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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