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TOP STORIES
Iran expects to get its first new jet within weeks
under a multi-billion-dollar deal with Airbus for 100 planes, a
senior official said on Monday, as Tehran and Western firms race to
reopen trade almost a year after sanctions were lifted. The first of
the Airbus jets should be delivered in mid-January, part of plans to
buy or lease 200 planes to renew IranAir's decaying fleet, against a
backdrop of conservative criticism in both Washington and Tehran of
last year's international sanctions deal to allow such business...
"We have finalised negotiations with Airbus and any day we will
be able to sign the deal in Tehran," Deputy Roads and Urban
Development Minister Asghar Fakhrieh Kashan told Reuters in a
telephone interview. "We are expecting some final clearances and
expect to sign today or tomorrow." The first Airbus A321 could
arrive before the Jan. 20 inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald
Trump, who has opposed the deal to lift most sanctions on Iran in
exchange for curbs on its nuclear activities, and well ahead of
Iranian presidential elections in May next year... Airbus, which has
revised up its forecasts for Iranian domestic demand, said it was
still negotiating the IranAir deal... Initial plans to buy a dozen
A380 superjumbos were dropped after criticism from Iranian
hardliners. Kashan said the deal with Airbus will be split roughly
equally between narrow-body jets including the A320 and A321 and
wide-body jets including the A330 and A350.
The head of the U.N. nuclear agency said Monday that
Iran is complying with obligations limiting uranium enrichment, but
two diplomats say the agency has warned Tehran that unless it slows
the process it could soon bust through its cap on material that could
be used to make a bomb. A nuclear deal between Iran and six world
powers stipulates that Iran can possess only low-enriched uranium -
which is not suitable for weapons - and no more than 300 kilograms
(660 pounds) at any time. That's far less than would be needed to
make a nuclear weapon, even if it were further enriched to
weapons-grade levels. But even a slight violation of Iran's
enrichment commitments would be politically volatile at a time when
the deal is on shaky ground. The incoming U.S. administration wants
the agreement renegotiated, and many American lawmakers oppose it.
Iran says it won't renegotiate the deal, and accuses the United
States of reneging on commitments to lift sanctions.
The U.S. on Thursday quietly provided guidance that
would aid companies in the event of a restoration of sanctions on
Iran. The guidance, issued by the U.S. Treasury Department's Office
of Foreign Assets Control, was issued as an update to a
frequently-asked-questions document first released on the day of
implementation for the nuclear deal between Iran and global powers,
which lifted some sanctions in exchange for freezing Iranian nuclear
production. Should Iran violate the agreement, the U.S. has vowed to
unilaterally retract the sanctions relief granted under the deal. A
Treasury spokeswoman said the return of sanctions on Iran, if it
doesn't comply with the deal, could be "severe," and could
include everything from denying licenses for the sale of commercial
aircraft to restoring financial secondary sanctions, or even a full
restoration of all sanctions lifted under the agreement. "This
is because, in the event of snapback, the burden of non-compliance
should fall on Iran, not on foreign companies," the spokeswoman
said.
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
Iran formally requested a meeting of the commission
that oversees its nuclear deal with world powers to complain about
the renewing of sanctions by the United States, state television
reported Saturday. The request was made in a letter by Foreign
Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to the European Union's foreign policy
chief Federica Mogherini, calling for "a meeting of the joint
commission outlined in the nuclear deal... regarding the recent
actions of the United States." ... The nuclear deal allows for
the signatories -- Iran, the US, Britain, China, France, Germany and
Russia -- to hold a "joint commission" to discuss claims of
a violation.
A veteran intelligence official slammed the Obama
administration for ignoring a range of Iran's destructive activities
in order to preserve the nuclear deal, and advised the incoming Trump
administration to harshly retaliate against Tehran's illicit
pursuits. "We have held our response to a whole bunch of
egregious Iranian activity ... hostage to the preservation of the
near-term nuclear deal," Gen. Michael Hayden, who served as
director of the Central Intelligence Agency and National Security
Agency, said Wednesday during the Jamestown Foundation's tenth annual
terrorism conference. Hayden's remarks come amid criticism that the
administration is trivializing Iran's role in fueling the atrocities
of the Syrian regime in order to salvage the nuclear agreement...
Hayden advised Trump to crack down on Iran's destabilizing activities
across the Middle East, regardless of whether Tehran threatens to walk
away from the nuclear deal. "What they're doing in Syria, what
they're doing in Iraq, what they're doing with Hezbollah, what
they're doing in Lebanon, what they're doing in Yemen, what they're
doing in the Gulf," Hayden said. "I would push back and
push back hard."
NUCLEAR & BALLISTIC MISSILE
PROGRAM
Iran has shown commitment to the deal on its nuclear
program agreed with world powers, the head of the United Nations
atomic energy watchdog said on Sunday, following complaints by Tehran
over what it calls a U.S. violation of the accord... "We are satisfied
with the implementation of the (agreement) and hope that this process
will continue," IAEA director general Yukiya Amano was quoted as
telling reporters in Tehran by the IRNA news agency. "Iran has
been committed to its engagement so far and this is important,"
Amano was quoted as saying after meeting Iran's nuclear energy chief,
Ali Akbar Salehi.
Iran discussed its plans for nuclear-powered ships
with UN nuclear chief Yukiyo Amano on Sunday, saying it would present
details within three months, local media reported... President Hassan
Rouhani told Amano he hoped "Iran and the IAEA can have good
technical cooperations on the production of nuclear propellants for
maritime transport," the government's website reported. In an
earlier meeting, Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran's Atomic Energy
Organisation said they "discussed the nuclear-powered engines in
detail," adding that talking points included the most
controversial one -- the level of uranium-enrichment required for the
ships. "This is not a simple matter that can be decided quickly.
We have three months to review it," he told reporters.
"Normally, the enrichment for such engines is between five
percent and 90 percent. It depends on the type of engine and the time
and goal we want to reach," said Salehi. Rouhani last week announced
the plans for nuclear-powered ships in response to news that the
United States was renewing sanctions legislation, which he said was a
"clear violation" of the nuclear deal.
CYBERWARFARE
Shamoon, a piece of malware that tries to turn
infected computers into unusable bricks, is back. Earlier this month,
a number of cybersecurity firms reported that hackers had used the
malware against thousands of computers in Saudi Arabia's civil
aviation agency and other government bodies. According to Bloomberg,
the attacks, like previous ones involving Shamoon, seemingly
originated from Iran. Now, the Defense Security Service (DSS), part
of the US Department of Defense, has issued a bulletin to cleared
contractors warning them of the threat. "Between 2 and 7
December 2016, DSS was given information from another government
agency regarding Indicators of Compromise (IOC) associated with a
Shamoon malware variant and may be used in computer network
exploitation attempts," the bulletin, distributed on Thursday
and obtained by Motherboard, reads. It does not specify the
government agency that provided the information. These bulletins are
sent to contractors to alert them to threats from foreign
intelligence entities (FIEs), and in particular, FIEs'
infrastructure, malware, tactics, techniques or procedures.
"This information is being shared by DSS in order to enable
potential targets of possible espionage activity to detect, disrupt
or deny FIE's exploitation of cleared contractor information systems,
networks or personnel," it reads.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
Iranian officials publicly hardened their resolve to
proceed with a multibillion-dollar deal to buy dozens of Boeing Co.
jets, threatening to claw back any lost money if the deal is scuttled
after the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. The officials
touted the timing of the agreement to buy 80 aircraft with a $16.6
billion list price from Boeing-ahead of the start of Mr. Trump's
administration - as possibly making it more difficult to thwart the
agreement. "Both they [Boeing] and we were willing to reach the
conclusion sooner, and fortunately it took place before the new
government [in the U.S. takes office]," Farhad Parvaresh, the
chief executive of state-owned carrier Iran Air, said Sunday.
"Both sides are committed, and there are scenarios in the
contracts for violation of commitments or in case of force majeure to
deal with those cases." ... Iranian Deputy Transport Minister
Asghar Fakhrieh-Kashan said that if sanctions are re-imposed
invalidating the contracts with Airbus and Boeing "we will take
back all the prepayments, with interest." ... Mr.
Fakhrieh-Kashan said Iran would make an initial payment of about $226
million for the first 15 Boeing planes, but didn't say when... Mr.
Fakhrieh-Kashan said Sunday Iran's sovereign-wealth fund would help
pay for the planes. Iran Air would try to raise about $120 million
through Islamic bonds and $500 million will come from overseas, he
said. Boeing will provide financing for six of the planes, he
added... Mr. Parvaresh said Airbus would deliver seven or eight
planes next year. Boeing deliveries wouldn't start until April 2018.
CONGRESSIONAL ACTION
Congress is trying hard to give President-elect Donald
Trump some leverage to pressure the governments of Syria, Russia and
Iran to stop their onslaught against Syrian civilians and perhaps
strike a deal on a political settlement. If Trump accepts it, he
would not only be able to negotiate with Vladimir Putin from a
position of strength; he might also save a lot of lives... After
months of behind-the-scenes wrangling, there is new bipartisan
legislation on Syria that combines input from the House and Senate.
The legislation, introduced this month by Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.)
and Robert P. Casey Jr. (D-Pa.) would sanction the Assad regime,
Russia and Iran for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Syria
while providing a framework for U.S. assistance to Syria going
forward... Rubio and Casey updated a Syria bill they had introduced
in 2013 and incorporated a sanctions bill named after the Syrian
defector known as Caesar that the House passed unanimously last
month. The senators also absorbed a bill by Rep. Adam Kinzinger
(R-Ill.) aimed at preventing Iran from further destabilizing Iraq.
"It's time for us to push back against [Iran's Ayatollah Ali]
Khamenei, Assad and Putin as they seek to expand their power across
the Middle East, and this sanctions bill is our best chance at doing
so," Kinzinger told me. The bill would require the
administration to report on whether top officials in all three
governments are complicit in the ongoing atrocities, including the
blocking of humanitarian aid from those in need. If so, they would be
sanctioned. If Khamenei, Assad and Putin halt the atrocities, Trump
could waive the sanctions.
BUSINESS RISK
The future looked bright for German engineering
companies after Iran reached a deal with the West in July 2015, which
saw the lifting of sanctions in exchange for Iran curbing its nuclear
program. With their historic business ties to Iran and diplomatic
know-how, German firms were poised to help modernize the country's
aging infrastructure and industrial plants. With a population of 80
million, Iran was badly in need of assistance after a decade cut off
from Western markets. But today trade remains sluggish, with large
German banks still reluctant to provide the necessary finance and
worried about paying the price for breaching U.S. sanctions still in
place.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) has signed a
short-term contract with Eni to sell crude, an Iranian official said
on Monday, as it seeks to revive the agreement it had with the
Italian oil major prior to sanctions on Tehran. "The National
Iranian Oil Company has sold one cargo of crude oil to this Italian
company," Mohsen Ghamsari, director for international affairs at
the NIOC was quoted as saying by Mehr news agency, adding that the
negotiations were underway to sign a long term deal. "If the deal
is signed we are ready to sell 100,000 barrels of crude oil to
Eni," Ghamsari said. He added a contract has also been signed
with Italy's Saras to sell crude oil.
Indonesia's Pertamina will buy 1 million barrels of
Iranian crude oil, expected to be delivered in the first quarter of
2017, its chief executive Dwi Soetjipto told reporters on Monday.
"We will try to bring in .. for the Cilacap refinery about 1
million barrels for experiment. When we know the result, the yield, then
we could negotiate for the long term," Soetjipto said. He also
said Pertamina will submit proposals for its plan to purchase stakes
in two oil and gas blocks in Iran by the end of February. Last week,
Indonesia announced it will import around 500,000 metric tonnes of
liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from Iran in 2017, according to a
government statement.
Turkish commercial vehicle maker Otokar said on Monday
it had signed a technology and licence deal with Iran's OGHAB
concerning the export and sale of its Navigo buses. In a statement to
the Istanbul stock exchange, Otokar said the deal covered a
three-year period with an option to extend by two years and said the
deal could generate revenues of around 50 million lira ($14 million)
annually.
Northwest Europe has opened its doors to the first
shipments of Iranian gasoil after a 10-year hiatus, and these nascent
flows are adding to the desulfurization opportunities within the
Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining hub... The latest fixture to Northwest
Europe was on board the Glorious, a 60,000 mt cargo, which discharged
into Amsterdam on November 26, having left Bandar Mahshahr, Iran, on
November 12, S&P Global trade flow software CFlow showed... The
first gasoil shipment from Iran since its trade sanctions were
removed was chartered by trading company Vitol, according to shipping
sources and broker reports.
EXTREMISM
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
condemned Britain on Saturday as a "source of evil and
misery" for the Middle East after British Prime Minister Theresa
May called Iran a regional threat. "Shamelessly, the British
have recently called ... Iran a threat to the region, but everyone
knows that ... it is the British who have always been the source of
threats, corruption and misery," the state news agency IRNA
quoted Khamenei as telling participants at an Islamic unity
conference in Tehran. Khamenei called "policies and the actions
of the British in the past two centuries a source of evil and misery
for the peoples of the region", IRNA added. May called on Gulf
Arab heads of state at a summit last week to work with London
"to push back against Iran's aggressive regional actions,
whether in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Syria or in the Gulf itself".
SYRIA CONFLICT
Responsibility for atrocities committed in Aleppo lies
with Syria and its Russian and Iranian backers, US President Barack
Obama said as Damascus suspended the evacuation of civilians and
fighters from the city's last rebel-held areas. Denouncing the
"horror" in Aleppo, Obama called for impartial observers
and warned President Bashar al-Assad that he would not be able to
"slaughter his way to legitimacy". "The world as we
speak is united in horror at the savage assault by the Syrian regime
and its Russian and Iranian allies on the city of Aleppo," he
told an end-of-year news conference. "This blood and these
atrocities are on their hands."
The foreign and defense ministers of Russia, Iran and
Turkey will discuss the future of Syria and the city of Aleppo at
talks in Moscow on Tuesday, Turkish and Russian officials said.
"(The meeting) will be to understand the views of all three
sides, laying out where we all stand and discuss where we go from
here," an official from Turkey's foreign ministry told
international media in Istanbul on Monday. "It is not a miracle
meeting, but will give all sides a chance to listen to each
other," the official said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's special envoy to
Syria made a previously unannounced visit to Iran on Sunday for talks
with top officials on the Syrian conflict. "The liberation of
Aleppo (north of Damascus) was the result of the initiative by Iran,
Russia and Syria and the resistance front" of Lebanon's Shiite
group Hezbollah, said Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran's Supreme
National Security Council, in his meeting with the envoy, Alexander
Lavrentiev. He called for increased cooperation between the Syrian
regime and its allies, Iran and Russia.
As the pro-Syrian government coalition began declaring
victory in east Aleppo on Dec. 11, the Islamic State retook the
ancient city of Palmyra in eastern Homs and attempted to storm the T4
military air base. The base is near a strategic crossroads of routes
that lead to Deir Ezzour, Raqqa, Damascus, and other key cities,
according to The Guardian. Following this development, Syrian
president Bashar al Assad vowed to retake Palmyra, accusing the West
of encouraging the jihadist group to launch the attack in Homs in
retaliation for "defeat" in Aleppo. Iran has confirmed the
deaths of two Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Ground Forces
officers in the latest Palmyra battles. Captain Ahmad Jalali-Nasab
(photo 2), who was attached to the IRGC-GF Imam Ali ibn Abi Taleb
unit (Qom province), was announced killed in Palmyra on Dec. 13. The
following day Hassan Akbari (photo 3), a Brigadier General or
Brigadier General Second Class, was also declared killed. Akbari was
a veteran of the Iran-Iraq War and was leading a sabotage battalion
in Syria, according to state-affiliated Iranian media... The ongoing
battle for Palmyra clearly illustrates that while the pro-Assad
faction has achieved a significant victory in taking Aleppo, forces
are both vulnerable and stretched. The Syrian war will continue to
drain IRGC resources. The Guard can sustain its current model only as
long as it can find foreign fighters and Iranians to volunteer.
A senior Syrian rebel blamed Iran and its Shi'ite
militias on Saturday of holding up the evacuation of civilians
trapped in the remaining rebel bastion in Aleppo and urged Russia to
live up to its commitment to implement the deal. Munir al Sayal, the
head of the political wing of the Ahrar al Sham rebel group involved
in negotiations over the deal, said Iran was insisting people be
allowed to leave two besieged Shi'ite villages before letting the
Aleppo evacuation happen. He said Russia was failing to restrain its
ally. "Iran and its sectarian proxies are using the humanitarian
situation of our people in besieged Aleppo and preventing civilians
from leaving until the evacuation of their groups in al-Foua and
Kefyra," Sayal told Reuters in a telephone interview.
Iran's foreign ministry has summoned the British envoy
in Tehran after the U.K. accused Iran of playing a role in the
"suffering" of the people of Syria's Aleppo. The semi-official
Tasnim news agency is reporting that the foreign ministry spokesman,
Bahram Ghasemi, says Iran's foreign ministry has told the U.K. charge
d'affaires in Tehran that Iran's policy is to establish peace in
Syria and provide humanitarian assistance to the people of that
country. On Thursday, British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson
summoned the Iranian and Russian ambassadors to convey his profound
concern over their countries' role in the suffering of Aleppo's
residents. Ghasemi also said Iranian officials stressed the need for
the British government to cut off any assistance or support to
terrorist groups.
TERRORISM
Two Iranian men who were found with video footage of
the Israeli embassy in Kenya have been deported after a deal was
reached to drop charges against them, Kenyan officials said Monday.
The two men had faced charges of collecting information to facilitate
a terrorist attack. They were deported Saturday after a court order,
the head of Kenya's anti-terrorism unit, Munga Nyale, said. Their
lawyer, Ahmednasir Abdulahi, said they were deported because there
was no evidence in the charges they faced. The prosecution has said
an agreement to deport them was reached after a meeting between the
Director of Public Prosecutions and the Iranian embassy.
REGIONAL DESTABILIZATION
The leaders of Iran's Revolutionary Guards launched
provocative statements against the Gulf states threatening to
intervene in Bahrain and Yemen. The comments were reported by Iranian
media after what they described as a "victory in Aleppo,"
upon the massacres, starvation and displacement against civilians.
Aleppo was considered as one of the strongholds of the opposition;
however, the Syrian regime took a hold of it with the help and
support of Iranian and Russian military troops. In this context, the
deputy commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Gen. Hossein
Salami told the official Iranian news agency Islamic Republic News
Agency that "The victory in Aleppo will pave the way for
liberating Bahrain," pointing out that Iran has an expansion
project that will extend to Bahrain, Yemen and Mosul after the fall
of the Syrian city of Aleppo. Salami said that "the people of
Bahrain will achieve their wishes, the Yemeni people will be
delighted, and the residents of Mosul will taste victory, these are
all divine promises," as he put it. He also pointed out that
Iran is still providing unlimited support for the Houthi group,
highlighting that Iranian missile could destroy the enemy targets in
any area.
Kuwait's foreign ministry summoned the Iranian
ambassador to demand the release of four Kuwaiti nationals detained
in the western Ahvaz region of Iran, it said in a statement published
by state news agency KUNA on Friday. The ministry was coordinating with
Iranian security authorities to press for visits to the men and to
facilitate their release, the statement said. It did not elaborate on
who the men were or why they were being held.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Iran's president lashed out at the country's
hard-liners on Monday, accusing them of ignoring human rights, which
he said are enshrined in the constitution. Hassan Rouhani's remarks
were apparently an attempt to appeal to the liberal-minded among the
country's middle class ahead of Iran's May presidential elections.
Without naming names, Rouhani said in a televised speech that
"some individuals do not like to hear about some of the
articles" and prefer to "ignore" Chapter 3 of the
constitution, which secures the rights of the people. That part of
the charter was approved in 1979 and is meant to support social and
individual freedoms. Rouhani spoke at the launch of a book compiling
120 legal articles on rights-related laws, codes and regulations in
Iran, entitled "Charter of Citizenship Rights." Rouhani's
government has backed the project.
Iran's President Hassan Rouhani unveiled a landmark
bill of rights on Monday, guaranteeing freedom of speech, protest,
fair trials and privacy, saying the achievement was "one of my
oldest dreams". Although many of the rights are already
enshrined in Iran's constitution written after the 1979 Islamic
revolution, Rouhani said it offered the first clear list of
principles that could be used to check the performance of state
institutions. "I'm very pleased that today one of my most
important promises is being delivered and I am achieving one of my
oldest dreams," Rouhani told officials in a televised ceremony.
However, many institutions, including the judiciary and the powerful
Revolutionary Guards, are firmly in the grip of hardliners who do not
answer to the president and say the priority is to protect the
revolution against dissenters and outside interference... "This
bill is a call by the Iranian nation against some arrogant Western
countries who think they are ahead of Third World countries in human
rights."
OPINION & ANALYSIS
The of the biggest foreign policy challenges facing
the incoming Donald Trump's administration could be countering Iran's
expansion throughout the Middle East. Energized by an infusion of
resources and legitimacy following last year's nuclear agreement,
Tehran has doubled down on efforts to shift the Middle Eastern
balance of power in its favor, as witnessed by the country's military
interventions in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, and has increased its
support to long-standing terrorist allies such as Hezbollah and
Hamas. Those who stress the urgency of reversing Iran's external
advances usually focus on scaling back its gains in Iraq and Syria
and somehow defanging its terrorist proxies. Although countering
Iran's foreign interventions would be sound policy, the most reliable
means of dealing with the threat from Iran is to pressure the regime
at home... There is only one long-term solution to the strategic
threat posed by Iran today: the emergence of a democratic, secular
state... There is only one long-term solution to the strategic threat
posed by Iran today: the emergence of a democratic, secular state.
The fundamental weaknesses of the present theocratic rulers make this
goal achievable. Perhaps their greatest vulnerability is a lack of
legitimacy. Since the Green Revolution of 2009, Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei has purged the Islamic Republic's most credible and popular
politicians. A restive public whose political aspirations cannot be
met and whose economic predicament worsens thanks to incompetence and
corruption cannot be held back forever. The gap between the state and
society has never been greater. The regime spends billions promoting
religion and enforcing cultural strictures, to little effect. The
Islamic Republic has lost its public and is poised for another
uprising similar to the one in 2009, which shook the foundations of
the regime and came close to toppling it. No less than Khamenei has
acknowledged that the movement brought the system to the "edge
of the cliff." Although Iran's internal struggle will take its
own course, there is a role for the United States to aid those who share
its values. For one, Washington should construct a sanctions regime
directed against Iran's human rights abuses. The financial sanctions
that have been most effective in constraining Iran's trade should be
imposed on human rights grounds.
The last person in the world one would expect to
support Donald Trump's coming outreach to Russia would be Abdul Ilah
Fahad. He is the secretary general of the National Coalition of
Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces. His side has been bombed
mercilessly by Russian aircraft for more than a year now. What's
more, Fahad and his coalition opposed Secretary of State John Kerry's
efforts this year to negotiate a deal with the Russians in Syria.
With Trump though, Fahad believes he has a chance to strike a bargain
that drives both Bashar al-Assad and his Iranian backers out of
Syria. He told me that in informal meetings he held last week in
Washington with Republicans, "We got a sense that Trump is open
to trying to drive a wedge between Russia and Iran."
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