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TOP STORIES
Ships chartered by two oil traders responsible for a
significant share of Iran's fuel exports last year failed to transmit
their location and the origin of their cargo-red flags for
governments seeking evidence of evasion of sanctions on Tehran. The
ships' radio-signal tracking systems were often not in use and
occasionally indicated the ships had sailed from countries other than
Iran, a Wall Street Journal investigation found. The U.S. government
is analyzing movements of ships in the Persian Gulf for any attempts
to circumvent bans on funding Iran's weapons programs or clearing
payments for Iranian oil through the U.S. financial system, a U.S.
official said. U.S. officials said they weren't familiar with the
particular shipments identified by the Journal.
Iran made progress this week in preserving its new-found place in the
global economy. French energy giant Total SA and German carmaker
Volkswagen AG announced agreements to plow money into the Islamic
Republic, the first to be finalized since U.S. President Donald Trump
took office, threatening to abandon the 2015 deal that rolled back a
decade of sanctions on Iran. The investments end months of
speculation that America's shifting foreign policy would scare Western
companies away from taking bets on the Middle East's fastest-growing
economy. They also highlight the widening rift between Trump and
European allies, who back President Hassan Rouhani even as the White
House reviews the nuclear accord that he helped engineer. Iran made
progress this week in preserving its new-found place in the global
economy.
Russia, Turkey and Iran failed in talks on Wednesday to
finalize an agreement on creating four de-escalation zones in Syria
after Ankara raised objections, diplomats said. Russia and Iran,
which back President Bashar al-Assad's government, and Turkey, which
supports some of the rebels, aim to reach a consensus on the zones by
the end of August, when their delegations are set to meet again in
the Kazakh capital. The failure is a setback for Moscow, the main
architect of the plan, as it seeks to take the lead in global efforts
to settle the Syrian civil war. "During these consultations, the
Turkish side said it needed more time in order ... to make an
appropriate decision," said senior Russian negotiator Alexander
Lavrentyev. Bashar al-Ja'afari, the lead negotiator from the Damascus
government, was more direct. "The Turkish delegation objected to
the adoption of any documents related to the implementation of
mechanisms of the agreement on the de-escalation zones," he
said.
NUCLEAR & BALLISTIC MISSILE PROGRAM
The second meeting of an Iran-EU working group on
nuclear research and development ended in Tehran on Wednesday, in
which the two sides reviewed joint research projects. Ali Akbar
Rezaei, director general of International Affairs Department of the
Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, who headed the Iranian delegation
at the talks, said the four-day discussions were a follow-up to the
first meeting held last December in EU's capital Brussels, ISNA
reported. The official said the two groups of experts have reviewed
over 30 research proposals and the EU delegation has visited and
evaluated six Iranian research centers. "We are trying to
benefit from the latest achievements of the global nuclear industry
and move the nuclear program to the cutting edge of science," he
said. Rezaei said nuclear cooperation between Iran and the EU conveys
a "positive message" to the world, adding that "scientific
exchanges in the field of research and development ... indicate the
will of Iran and Europe for widespread and long-term
collaboration."
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
U.S. forces have been instructed to take all measures
needed to protect American interests in Syria, including military
measures, as part of an effort that comes after top officials in the
Trump administration assessed that Iran is deliberately probing
American weaknesses and reactions on the Syrian battlefield,
according to senior Trump administration officials who spoke to the
Washington Free Beacon. Iran-backed forces, including Hezbollah, have
already initiated multiple encounters with the United States by
violating agreements worked out between Washington and Moscow aimed
at preventing the various factions targeting ISIS inside Syria from
coming into conflict. This is part of a campaign that analysts inside
and outside the White House believe is aimed at testing the Trump
administration's resolve, sources said.
BUSINESS RISK
Two years after it agreed to reduce its nuclear program
in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions, Iran has
signed its first energy deal. France's Total SA and the China
National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) agreed to a $5 billion deal to
develop Phase 11 of Iran's South Pars offshore gas field, one of the
largest in the world. Iran's first energy deal since the lifting of nuclear-related
sanctions on the country is a major breakthrough in the development
of the massive South Pars gas field. Iran's Oil Minister Bijan
Zanganeh hailed the deal, attributing it to both the nuclear deal and
the presidential election that gave President Hassan Rouhani a second
term. Zanganeh also said July 3 that Iran would not be opposed to
signing energy deals with the United States; however, it is the
Americans themselves who do not want to. Mohammad Bagher Nobakht,
spokesperson for the Rouhani administration, also credited the
nuclear deal and the election with the signing of the contract,
noting that the deal was struck despite "America's attempts to
create an anti-Iran environment."
TERRORISM
IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot said Wednesday the
military was working quietly against a factory for precision-guided
missiles Iran is building for Hezbollah in Lebanon. "It's at the
top of our list of priorities, but at the moment we're talking about
a very limited capability," Eisenkot told the Knesset's Foreign
Affairs and Defense Committee. "We're working against it using
quiet measures to avoid a deterioration of the situation." Such
deterioration, Eisenkot said, is not expected, noting that while he "didn't
identify an intention by our enemies to attack, the IDF is improving
its preparedness for any scenario."
Mahmoud al-Zahar, a co-founder and member of Palestinian
resistance group Hamas, said his movement's relations with Iran are
"as close and strong as ever". Zahar noted that Iran was
part of Islamic ummah and had never asked anything in return for its
help to the Palestinian nation, ISNA reported on Wednesday. Pointing
to the recently-updated Hamas policy document, he said even though
the new document accepts the idea of a "transitional"
Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders, this "does not mean
it recognizes Israel". In its new document, Hamas dropped its
longstanding call for Israel's destruction, but said it backed
"armed struggle" against it.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Iran's supreme leader is continuing his
public criticism of newly re-elected President Hassan Rouhani, this
time accusing him of not doing enough to aid the judiciary in
protecting the "dignity of the Islamic system." "The
judiciary should be a pioneer in establishing public rights within
the society ... and confront anyone who violates laws," said
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on July 3, 2017 during a speech outside
his residence in Tehran to judicial officials. The ayatollah appeared
to be responding to Rouhani's comments a day earlier about
"problems" with the way the judiciary issues summons.
"We must have a reason if we summon someone," said
Rouhani at a national conference of judicial officials in Tehran on
July 2. "We can't summon someone and then find a reason. We need
sufficient reason first. This is what our Constitution demands."
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Following the re-election of Hassan Rouhani in the May
19 presidential elections, talk of establishing of a "shadow
government" has been floating around Iranian political circles.
Some Principlists have proposed the idea, although not everyone in
their camp has welcomed it. Despite the fanfare in some quarters of
the Principlist camp, the idea of a "shadow government"
being set up in Iran appears unlikely to materialize. In a statement
released on May 20, Saeed Jalili, a conservative politician who
unsuccessfully ran in the 2013 presidential elections, unveiled the
idea, which is perhaps most prominent in the British political
system. In his statement, Jalili called for the formation of "a
shadow government in an effort to help the sitting government and
make up for its shortcomings and inefficiencies." However, the
timing of his proposal - which coincided with the announcement of the
election results - led to its not receiving much media attention.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
In recent congressional testimony, Secretary of State
Rex Tillerson sensibly stressed that the United States should
"work towards support of those elements inside of Iran that
would lead to a peaceful transition of that government." The
commentariat was aghast, and the Islamic republic registered a formal
protest note. Both parties seemed surprised that the United States
has long assisted those seeking democratic change. During the Cold
War, secretaries of state routinely assured those trapped behind the
Iron Curtain that America supported their aspirations. Given that
Iran is ruled by an aging Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the
United States should be prepared for a transition of power there that
may yet precipitate the collapse of the entire system.
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