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Top Stories
Reuters:
"Asian buyers of Iranian crude will deepen import cuts in 2013 and
struggle to send cash to Tehran to pay for oil as tightening Western
sanctions choke the flow of hard currency to Iran's coffers. Tough
sanctions from the United States and Europe to force Iran to curb its
nuclear programme have already cut Iran's oil exports by more than half
this year, costing it more than $5 billion a month. The reduced cash flow
has contributed to a plunge in the value of Iran's currency, the rial...
Almost all of Iran's remaining exports flow to China, South Korea, Japan
and India. The additional cuts Asian importers will make in 2013 would
translate into a fall in sales of about 135,000 barrels per day (bpd), resulting
in a loss of about $5 billion next year based on today's oil price,
according to Reuters calculations. The United States requires buyers of
Iranian crude to progressively cut imports to ensure they secure
exceptions to the sanctions when they come up for review every 180 days.
Making matters worse for Iran is a little-noticed provision in U.S.
sanctions, which goes into effect on Feb. 6, that states funds being used
to pay for oil must remain in a bank account in the purchasing country
and can be used only for non-sanctioned, bilateral trade between that
country and Iran. Any bank that repatriates the money or transfers it to
a third country faces a sanction risk, including being cut off from the
U.S. financial system." http://t.uani.com/VUmYTH
AP:
"The House on Thursday overwhelmingly passed a $633 billion defense
bill for next year despite Pentagon complaints that it spares outdated
but politically popular weapons at the expense of the military's ability
to fight... The bill responds to the new threats and upheaval around the
globe while still providing billions for the decade-plus war in
Afghanistan. The measure would tighten sanctions on Iran, increase
security at diplomatic missions worldwide after the deadly Sept. 11 raid
in Libya and presses the military on possible options to end the
bloodshed in Syria... The sanctions would hit Iran's energy, shipping and
shipbuilding sectors as well as Iran's ports, blacklisting them as
'entities of proliferation concern.' It would impose penalties on anyone supplying
precious metals to Iran and sanctions on Iranian broadcasting." http://t.uani.com/Vfqk2Z
Reuters:
"A U.N. Security Council committee on Thursday imposed sanctions on
two Iranian firms that violated a U.N. arms embargo on Tehran by shipping
weapons to the Syrian government. The move was welcomed by the United
States. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice said in a
statement that the two firms blacklisted by the Iran sanctions committee
were 'significantly involved in Iranian arms smuggling, including
smuggling to Syria.' 'These companies - Yas Air and SAD Import Export
Company - were responsible for shipping ammunition, assault rifles,
machine guns, mortar shells and other arms from Iran to Syria,' she said.
'The committee's decision underscores the growing international concern
over Iran's use of the transportation and shipping sectors as a means to
export arms and conduct other illicit activities in violation of U.N.
sanctions,' Rice said. A U.N. panel of experts that monitors compliance
with the Iran sanctions regime had recommended earlier this year that the
sanctions committee add cargo airline Yas Air, SAD Import Export Company,
and one other firm to the U.N. blacklist." http://t.uani.com/12tOmi1
Nuclear Program & Sanctions
Bloomberg:
"China cut its imports of Iranian crude in November before it won a
renewed exemption from U.S. penalties on banks that process payments for
the Islamic republic's oil. China, the world's second-biggest crude
consumer, purchased 1.76 million metric tons of petroleum from Iran,
according to data released today by the General Administration of
Customs. That's equivalent to 429,000 barrels a day, down 6.3 percent
from October and 31 percent lower than November 2011. The U.S. State
Department on Dec. 7 extended exemptions for 180 days for China and eight
other countries from measures related to sanctions against Iran, saying
they had 'continued to significantly reduce' their purchases of the
Middle East nation's oil... China, which is Iran's biggest customer, cut
crude imports from the country this year even after criticizing the
restrictions. Purchases declined 23 percent to 19.4 million tons in the
first 11 months from a year earlier, according to today's data." http://t.uani.com/RINsfD
Reuters:
"China's state-run Zhuhai Zhenrong Corp, the firm that started
Beijing's Iran oil business, expects to maintain its crude oil contract
with Tehran at a steady volume for 2013, unfazed by tightening Western
sanctions, trading officials told Reuters... Zhuhai Zhenrong, sanctioned
early this year by Washington for supplying gasoline to Iran, would keep
importing around 230,000 barrels of Iranian crude each day in 2013, a
contract volume that has barely changed over the past decade. This figure
would be just over half the total imports this year into China. Beijing
is Iran's top oil buyer and trading partner, buying almost half of
Terhan's total exports of crude... 'Since Zhenrong is already on the
blacklist, it fears no more political pressure (to cut),' said a senior
Chinese oil trader with direct knowledge of Zhenrong's operations. The
ultimate customer of Zhenrong's Iranian crude supply is state refining
giant Sinopec Corp, which has yet to conclude a separate contract with
the National Iranian Oil Company." http://t.uani.com/ZoafAG
Terrorism
AFP:
"Canada added Iran's Quds Force to a list of terrorist groups on
Thursday, saying the elite special operations unit of the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard had been arming the Taliban, Hamas and others. Public
Safety Minister Vic Toews said the Quds Force was responsible for
'exporting the Iranian Revolution through activities such as facilitating
terrorist operations.' He accused it of providing 'arms, funding and
paramilitary training to extremist groups, including the Taliban, Lebanese
Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the
Liberation of Palestine-General Command.'" http://t.uani.com/VW5l6k
AP:
"Two Iranians arrested after a botched bomb plot that allegedly
targeted Israeli diplomats say they're innocent and were stunned to
discover explosives stashed in a cabinet in their rented Bangkok home, a
lawyer said Friday. Both men appeared in court Friday, 10 months after
the explosives blew apart their home in a residential Bangkok
neighborhood on Valentine's Day. The explosion uncovered a plot that Thai
authorities say was aimed at Israeli envoys and that Israel says was part
of an Iranian-backed network of terror. Authorities hope the trial,
expected to end in March, will help explain who was behind the alleged
plot that backfired when the explosives cache accidentally ignited.
Investigators say that bombs found at the home had round, coin-like
magnets on them - similar to 'sticky' bombs used against Israeli
diplomats in foiled attacks a day earlier in India and the former Soviet
republic of Georgia." http://t.uani.com/T5mE9I
Syrian Uprising
AFP:
"Syria's main opposition group denounced on Friday an Iranian peace
initiative for the war-torn country as a last-ditch bid save the regime
of President Bashar al-Assad. 'As the free forces of the Syrian people
accomplish one decisive political and military victory after another, the
regime and its allies keep on launching lacklustre and overdue political
initiatives,' said the National Coalition. 'The Iranian initiative
represents one example of these desperate attempts to throw a lifeline to
the inevitably sinking ship of the Assad regime,' it said in a statement.
Tehran, the most powerful regional ally of the embattled Assad regime,
detailed a six-point peace initiative on Sunday, according to Iranian
media reports." http://t.uani.com/VasVzD
Human Rights
Reuters:
"The U.N. General Assembly condemned North Korea, Iran and Syria on
Thursday for widespread human rights abuses and all three countries
rejected the separate resolutions adopted by the 193-member world body,
slamming them as politicized. The resolution on Syria, which was
co-sponsored by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Britain, France
and other Arab and Western states, received 135 votes in favor, 12
against and 36 abstentions. The resolution on Iran, which was drafted by
Canada and co-sponsored by other Western countries, passed in an 86-32
vote with 65 abstentions. The North Korea resolution was adopted by
consensus. Resolutions on Iran, North Korea and Myanmar - and, since last
year, Syria - have become an annual ritual... The resolution on Iran
voiced 'deep concern at serious ongoing and recurring human rights
violations in the Islamic Republic of Iran relating to, inter alia,
torture and cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment,
including flogging and amputations.'" http://t.uani.com/VaqfSx
Opinion &
Analysis
Ray Takeyh in The
National Interest: "As Washington contemplates
another round of diplomacy with Iran, an intense debate is gripping the
Islamic Republic's corridors of power. An influential and growing segment
of Iran's body politic is calling for a negotiated settlement of the
nuclear issue. Such calls have transcended the circle of reformers and
liberals and are increasingly being voiced by conservative oligarchs. In
the midst of this melodrama stands the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whose
instincts for resistance are being challenged by some of his loyal
supporters. The international community can play an important role in
nudging this discussion in the right direction. Pursuing a deliberate
arms-control process that initially focuses on stopping Iran's more
dangerous enrichment activities will both ease tensions and press this
debate in the right direction. In a sense, the sanctions policy that the
United States has pursued over the past decade is beginning to bear
fruit. Sanctions and pressure were never going to provoke an Iranian
capitulation, but they have seemingly succeeded in convincing influential
sectors of the theocracy to reconsider their options. The notions of
talks with the United States and compromise solutions are not new in
Iran, but had previously been embraced by largely inconsequential actors
such as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his two predecessors, Hashemi
Rafsanjani and Muhammad Khatami. In recent days, however, that chorus has
been gingerly joined by some hardliners. In November, Mohsen Rezai, the
former head of the Revolutionary Guard, stressed that given Iran's
strength, it is now in a position to address the United States on a more
equal footing. In a similar vein, General Muhammad Reza Naqdi, the head
of the Basij militia, who had previously acclaimed the virtues of
sanctions as empowering domestic production, now claims that 'if the United
States behaves properly we can negotiate with it.' All this is not to
imply that the Islamic Republic and its complex maze of decision-making
has arrived at a consensus on resolving the nuclear issue. The chief
proponent of resisting such gestures remains Khamenei. In recent weeks,
in a subtle and indirect manner, the Supreme Leader has rebuked those
calling for concessions on the nuclear front. It was, after all,
Khamenei's representative to the Revolutionary Guard, Ali Saeedi, who
castigated proposals for direct talks with the United States as a trick
to get Iran to relinquish its nuclear ambitions. A remarkable article in
the Keyhan newspaper, long seen as Khamenei's mouthpiece, warned the
'tired revolutionaries' that 'by offering wrong analyses and relating all
of the country's problems to external sanctions, they want to make the
social atmosphere inflamed and insecure and agitate the public sentiment
so that the exalted Leader is forced to give in to their demands in order
to protect the country's interests and the revolution's gains.' It is
inconceivable that such an article would have been written without
Khamenei's approbation. Despite his stern and forbidding presence,
Khamenei can be coaxed into compromise-one that concedes aspects of the
program but not its entirety. At this juncture, the Islamic Republic's
contentious and divided system can only countenance a limited deal, one
that addresses the hard edges of its program. Khamenei is too invested in
his enmities and too attached to his nuclear apparatus to accept its
dismantlement. An accord that curtails Iran's production of 20 percent
enriched uranium can still reduce tensions and potentially pave the way
for further arms-control measures. A circumscribed agreement would not
end Iran's nuclear challenge, but it may empower more reasonable actors
and inject a measure of pragmatism into Iran's nuclear calculus. For the
United States, such an accord has the advantage of delaying Iran's
nuclear timelines and putting some indispensable time back on the clock.
The challenge for the international community is how to transact a
limited deal while maintaining the leverage of the sanctions that seem to
be disciplining the recalcitrant theocracy." http://t.uani.com/U1YLet
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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