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Top Stories
Reuters: "Rigorous
new sanctions against Iran's banking, shipping and industrial sectors
took effect on Saturday, as part of the European Union's effort to force
Tehran to scale back its nuclear program. The sanctions, agreed in
October, entered EU law with their publication in the European Union's
Official Journal on Saturday. The toughest EU measures yet, they include
bans on financial transactions, sales to Iran of shipping equipment and
steel, and imports of Iranian natural gas, adding to earlier bans,
including on the OPEC producer's oil. They reflect heightened concern
over Iran's nuclear goals and Israeli threats to attack Iranian atomic
installations if diplomacy and other measures fail to deliver a
solution... The new sanctions mark a significant change of policy for the
27-member bloc, which previously sought mainly to target specific people
and companies with economic restrictions. It has lagged the United States
in imposing blanket industry bans because it is anxious to avoid
penalizing ordinary Iranian citizens, while punishing the Tehran
government... The new European measures make clear natural gas shipments
are prohibited in any form and swapping, as opposed to simply buying,
cargoes is also outlawed... In a statement, the European Commission said
the new law brought the number of entities subject to sanctions to 490
and the total number of persons to 105. The latest companies added to the
banned list include energy and steel distribution firms and financial
companies." http://t.uani.com/V1pZ5Y
AFP:
"Iran is engaged in a 'smart economic war' with Western powers whose
sanctions against its nuclear programme are hurting some Iranians,
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Saturday. 'Targeted sanctions,
which the enemies say are supposed to be crippling, have led to a drop in
our oil' sales, Ahmadinejad said in a live interview on state television,
referring to an oil embargo imposed by the European Union. 'They do not
even let us transfer the oil money,' he said. 'They thought Iran's
economy would break down, but it did not.' 'Iran is engaged in a smart
economic war with the enemy,' he said... Ahmadinejad said his government
had 'so far managed to control' the effects of sanctions on the economy
but admitted that 'heavy pressure had been exerted on some Iranians
because of sanctions.' He did not elaborate on how Iran was fighting off
sanctions for fear the methods would be found by Western powers trying to
goad Iran back to the negotiating table over its nuclear ambitions. 'I
cannot say what heavy pressure the enemy has imposed, and how we are
dealing with them.' 'We have so far managed to control this blow, and it
hasn't turned out the way they predicted,' he said." http://t.uani.com/Upb7Rn
Radio Zamaneh:
"The Spanish satellite company Hispasat has stopped airing Press TV
and Hispan TV as of Friday December 21 and ordered Overon, another
satellite company, to follow suit. Hispasat's removal of the Islamic
Republic state channels comes after a similar move by the French company
Eutelsat, which also owns part of Hispasat. According to Overon, the
European union's blacklisting of Ezatollah Zarghami, the head of the
Islamic Republic broadcaster Seda-va-Sima, has led to the decision to
follow 'a wider interpretation of the EU regulations.' Iran says that
Hispan TV is officially registered in Spain and has been operating under
the media regulations of that country. Iranian officials say they will
take legal action against the recent 'wave of new European and American
attacks against Iranian media.'" http://t.uani.com/Upbzzh
Nuclear Program
NYT:
"South Korean technicians scrutinizing the debris of the North
Korean rocket launched this month have found evidence suggesting the
rocket's military purposes and the North's technological ties with Iran
in its efforts to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile, South
Korean officials said Sunday... For an oxidizer, North Korea used red
fuming nitric acid, commonly used as rocket propellant in old
Soviet-built Scud missiles, as well as in Iranian and North Korean
missiles, the official said. Most space-program rockets use liquid oxygen
as an oxidizer, he said. Unlike liquid oxygen, which must be kept
extremely cold, red fuming nitric acid can be stored at room temperature,
which makes it a convenient propellant for missiles, the official said.
The design of the oxidizer tank also suggested an 'Iran connection' in
North Korea's rocket program, he said." http://t.uani.com/W1QRSk
Sanctions
AP:
"Iran's oil minister claimed Sunday his country has successfully
overcome sanctions on the sale of its oil, state TV reported... Oil
Minister Rostam Ghasemi that the industry was in 'bad shape' about two
months ago because of the oil embargo, 'but resorting to planning in the
oil industry, we left the bottleneck behind, almost.' The EU imposed its
embargo in July. Ghasemi said Iran's oil sector would be able to export
its oil to the 'farthest spots' around the world. In contrast, China,
India and Korea recently announced that they have cut back their oil
imports from Iran to comply with international sanctions. Ghasemi also
said that Iran has set up its own insurance for oil tankers after Western
companies refused to cover them. 'By revoking insurance, the West
disrupted transportation of oil, the most important part' of trade,
Ghasemi was quoted as saying. He said since a large portion of Iran's
revenue comes from oil exports, 'the embargo is a very important
issue.'" http://t.uani.com/ZviMSx
AFP:
"Iran has warned China it could cancel a much-delayed $5-billion
offshore gas exploration contract in the Gulf, a news agency said on
Monday. 'There is a possibility of cancelling the contract' signed in
2009 to develop the South Pars gas field -- which holds around eight
percent of the world's gas reserves -- Mehr news quoted oil ministry
spokesman Alireza Nikzad as saying... South Pars, a huge offshore natural
gas field shared between Iran and Qatar, holds around 14 trillion cubic
metres of gas, and Iran plans to use the 'phase 11' project to fill its
first-ever liquefied natural gas plant. Mehr named China National Petroleum
Corporation (CNPC), the Asian giant's largest oil and gas producer and
supplier, as the company contracted for the project." http://t.uani.com/WL0tXJ
Syrian Uprising
Reuters:
"The installation of Patriot anti-missile batteries sent by NATO
members to bolster Turkey's defenses against a possible missile attack
from Syria will only harm Turkey's security, Iran's defense minister was
quoted as saying on Saturday. NATO approved Turkey's request for the air
defense system earlier this month, in a move meant to calm Ankara's fears
of being hit by Syrian missiles... 'The installation of Patriot missiles
in Turkey plays no role in establishing Turkey's security and this harms
the country of Turkey,' Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi said on
Saturday, according to the Iranian Students' News Agency (ISNA). 'The
West has always pursued its viewpoints and interests and we disagree with
the presence of Western countries in regional interactions.'" http://t.uani.com/ROw6OF
Regional
Meddling
Reuters:
"Saudi Arabia on Monday told regional rival Iran to stop interfering
in internal Gulf Arab affairs and spreading 'sedition', activities Tehran
denies. The comments, made by Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud
al-Faisal, follow similar allegations leveled at Iran by the kingdom in
the past, and other Gulf states are likely to voice similar complaints at
a summit of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that opens
later on Monday. 'Interference to stir sedition is unacceptable from a
neighbor,' Prince Saud was quoted as saying by the London-based,
Saudi-owned daily al-Hayat. 'This is not comfortable because it is trying
to use the circumstances to interfere.'" http://t.uani.com/U6Gug3
Opinion &
Analysis
Jackson Diehl in
WashPost: "Back at the beginning of 2006, Sens. John
McCain (R-Ariz.) and Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) made waves in Washington by
predicting that the United States could ultimately have to choose between
allowing Iran to go nuclear and taking military action to stop it. Pretty
much every year since then, someone's New Year's forecast has had that
fateful choice finally coming before the president. For seven years, it
hasn't happened. But will 2013 be different? The conventional wisdom I've
heard from diplomats in Washington this month says probably not. Most
likely, it goes, next year will look like previous years: Negotiations
will limp along inconclusively. Iran will make incremental progress on
uranium enrichment, while stopping short of steps that would provoke a
U.S. or Israeli attack. But there's a good case to be made that next year
will finally bring a break in the Iranian standoff - by means of a
military confrontation, the appearance of an Iranian bomb or a diplomatic
deal of some kind. And interestingly, one of the people making that case
is President Obama's first-term adviser on Iran, Dennis Ross, who has
worked on the Middle East in five administrations. Ross, who left the
Obama White House at the end of 2011, concedes that prognosticators of an
Iran crisis have a long losing streak. His reasons that next year will be
different boil down to three: an approaching Iranian 'breakout' capacity;
Obama's stated determination to prevent it; and the slow emergence of an
economic and political climate in Iran that could prompt Supreme Leader
Ali Khamenei to change course. What is a 'breakout capacity?' As Ross
points out, Obama himself defined it in the third presidential debate in
October. It 'means that we would not be able to intervene in time to stop
their nuclear program,' the president said. In other words, Iran would
have acquired enough nuclear infrastructure and stockpiles of
medium-enriched uranium that it could manufacture a bomb in a matter of a
few weeks - before it could be detected by Western intelligence agencies
or international inspectors. 'That clock is ticking,' Obama said... Ross
has been arguing for some time that Obama should put such a comprehensive
offer on the table. He thinks the present talks, in which Iran is being
offered a modest easing of sanctions in exchange for halting its
higher-level enrichment and shipping much of its stockpile out of the
country, won't work. 'There's a structural problem,' he says. 'The
Iranian perception is that they are being asked to give a diamond in
exchange for a candy bar.' But would Khamenei ever accept a big deal?
Ross, who urged Obama to make that bet in his first term, sees some signs
that the Iranian leadership and state-controlled media are setting up a
climate in which the supreme leader could make such a decision. The
reasons to do so would be two-fold: the damage to the economy from
sanctions; and a conviction that in the absence of a deal there would be
a U.S. attack. For the moment, Ross says, the Iranians 'are not convinced
we are prepared to use force.' Consequently, he says, 'at this point I
would still put the prospects for diplomacy at less than 50-50.' And: 'If
by the end of 2013 diplomacy hasn't worked, the prospects for use of
force become quite high.' Happy New Year." http://t.uani.com/WKWTNj
Nazila Fathi in
FP: "Iran's Ministry of Intelligence did something
remarkable last month: It used its website to publish a report (link in
Farsi) calling for direct talks with the country's foe, the United
States. In the report, entitled 'The Zionist Regime's Reasons and
Obstacles for Attacking Iran,' the traditionally hawkish ministry
highlighted the benefits of diplomacy and negotiations with the United
States: 'One way to fend off a possible war is to resort to diplomacy and
to use all international capacities.' The authors took care to draw a
line between the approaches currently taken towards Iran's nuclear
program by the U.S. and Israel, Iran's archenemy. President Obama, the
report's authors wrote, 'hopes to solve this issue peacefully and through
diplomacy' -- in contrast to Israel, which, it said, favors a unilateral
strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. By implementing 'severe
sanctions,' the report contended, Obama is actually trying to control the
situation without resorting to military action. The text concluded that
there is a high risk of war and 'it is an unforgiveable sin not to
prevent it.' The Ministry of Intelligence report signals an intriguing
shift in the Iranian political landscape. The ministry, a key player in
the power structure of the Islamic Republic, could have chosen to use its
considerable leverage to influence the debate internally -- but instead
it chose, in an entirely unprecedented way, to enter a public debate. The
man who runs the Ministry of Intelligence, Heydar Moslehi, is no
outsider; he is, in fact, a confidant of the supreme religious leader,
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final word on all matters of state.
Ayatollah Khamenei habitually refers to the United States as 'the enemy'
and has denounced negotiations... The most likely reason for the shift is
the dire state of Iran's economy. International sanctions leveled against
the country because of its nuclear program are having a devastating
effect. Inflation is soaring, sparking worries among ordinary people and
government officials alike. Demonstrations rocked Tehran's bazaar in
October after the Iranian currency, the rial, collapsed 40 percent
against the U.S. dollar. Local newspapers are filled with daily reports
on the effects of skyrocketing prices around the country. The European
Union and the United States have enforced crippling sanctions in recent
months. The measures have led to a sharp decline in Iran's oil revenues.
European countries that used to buy 20 percent of Iran's oil have
suspended their imports since July. Other countries, such as China and
India, have sharply reduced their imports under pressure from the
international community. An embargo on the Iranian financial sector
blocks its banking system from transferring money. American and European
firms, fearing hefty fines, refuse to do business with Iran. U.S.
authorities have levied hundreds of millions of dollars in fines against
Standard Chartered Bank and HSBC for moving Iranian money through the
U.S. financial system... There are other signs that pressure is building
among powerful lobbies close to Khamenei. Mohammad Javad Larijani,
secretary of Iran's High Council for Human Rights, who is also close to
the Supreme Leader, said recently in a televised interview that Iran and
the U.S. need to deal directly. 'To protect the interests of our system,
we would negotiate with the U.S. or anyone else even in the abyss of
hell,' he said. Iran's economy is expected to suffer one of its worst
contractions. The Economist Intelligence Unit, a London-based think-tank,
estimates that it will shrink to $70 billion this year from $80 billion
in 2011. Inflation is galloping at 25 percent, according to the
International Monetary Fund. The rial has lost 300 percent of its value
over the past year... Some analysts compare Iran's ten-year effort to
build its nuclear program with its dogged conduct in its bloody,
eight-year war with Iraq in the 1980s. Back then, the founder of the
Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, wanted to defy the West
and show the strength of his nation by continuing the fight against
Saddam Hussein. In 1988, under pressure from close aides and a society
devastated by the war, Khomeini finally agreed to accept a ceasefire. He
compared it with 'drinking the cup of poison.' There is no sign yet that
Ayatollah Khamenei might be willing to drink a similar cup of poison and
settle for a compromise over the nuclear program. He has repeatedly
dismissed the effects of the sanctions. But a few weeks ago he called
them 'savage,' acknowledging indirectly, for the first time, that they
were hurting the country." http://t.uani.com/12ApaGG
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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