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Top Stories
Reuters:
"Iran will press ahead with its uranium enrichment program, its
nuclear energy chief said on Friday, signaling no change of course
despite the victory of a relative moderate in the June 14 presidential
election. Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, head of the Islamic Republic's Atomic
Energy Organization, said production of nuclear fuel would 'continue in
line with our declared goals. The enrichment linked to fuel production
will also not change.' Speaking through an interpreter to reporters at a
nuclear energy conference in St Petersburg, Russia, he said work at
Iran's underground Fordow plant - which the West wants Iran to close -
would also continue. Iran refines uranium at Fordow that is a relatively
close technical step away from weapons-grade." http://t.uani.com/18knQMT
Bloomberg:
"Sony Corp. sold almost $13 million in video and medical equipment
to dealers in Dubai that resold the gear in Iran, the company said. The
recipients included groups under U.S. sanctions. In a U.S. filing
yesterday, Sony said it sold broadcast equipment, security cameras and
video-conferencing gear to dealers who planned to resell or resold the
products to groups including the Information Technology Department of the
Iranian Police and the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting. The law allows
the U.S. to seek fines against suppliers of products used to oppress
people in Iran. Sony's dealings were outlined under requirements that
businesses report transactions with Iran or others sanctioned under
programs relating to terrorism or the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction, according to the Tokyo-based electronics maker's
filing." http://t.uani.com/111SQ1W
Bloomberg:
"Tupras Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS), Turkey's only oil
refiner, will cut imports of crude oil from Iran this year 22 percent to
5.6 million tons, or 105,000 barrels a day, to comply with sanctions. The
U.S. extended exemptions to sanctions against Iran's nuclear program to
countries dependent on Iranian crude for another six months from June,
Tupras Chief Executive Officer Yavuz Erkut said yesterday. Iran is
Turkey's largest supplier. 'We have diversified crude oil sources and the
decrease in Iran supplies is being compensated for by purchases from
Saudi Arabia and Iraq,' he said. Iraq supplied 3.8 million tons in 2012
while Saudi Arabia 2.8 million tons, he said." http://t.uani.com/128s1nv
Nuclear Program
USA Today: "The United States
plans to give Israel weapons that would enable it to send ground forces
against Iranian nuclear facilities that it can't penetrate from the air.
The deal includes air-refueling aircraft, advanced radars for F-15
fighter jets, and up to eight V-22 Ospreys, an aircraft that can land
like a helicopter and carry two dozen special operations forces with
their gear over long distances at aircraft speeds. The Osprey 'is the
ideal platform for sending Israeli special forces into Iran,' says Kenneth
Pollack, a former CIA analyst now at the Brookings Institution's Saban
Center for Middle East Policy... 'One of the possibilities is (Israel)
would use special forces to assault the Fordow facility and blow it up,'
Pollack said." http://t.uani.com/10pfr5U
WashPost:
"A retired four-star Marine Corps general who served as the nation's
second-ranking military officer is a target of a Justice Department
investigation into a leak of information about a covert U.S.-Israeli
cyberattack on Iran's nuclear program, a senior Obama administration
official said. Retired Gen. James E. 'Hoss' Cartwright served as deputy
chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and was part of President Obama's
inner circle on a range of critical national security issues before he
retired in 2011. The administration official said that Cartwright is
suspected of revealing information about a highly classified effort to
use a computer virus later dubbed Stuxnet to sabotage equipment in
Iranian nuclear enrichment plants." http://t.uani.com/19HDdgn
Sanctions
Reuters:
"Japan's oil imports from Iran in May jumped 86 percent from a year
earlier, recovering from a plunge the previous month when there was a
near halt amid uncertainty about continued sovereign guarantees on
shipping insurance. Despite the rise in May, Japan's imports for the
first five months of year are down by 20 percent from a year ago. Imports
by Japan, Iran's No. 3 crude buyer, are still expected to decline this
year after dropping 39.5 percent last year as the United States and the
European Union ratchet up sanctions targeting Iran's disputed nuclear
programme." http://t.uani.com/14BZl8H
Platts:
"China has taken delivery of around 88,000 mt of Iranian LPG in June
after a break of four months, as the Islamic republic extends exports to
North Asia in its attempts to circumvent sanctions aimed at preventing it
from exporting oil products, market sources said this week. The VLGC, Gas
Jasmine, discharged its cargo comprising 33,000 mt of propane and 11,000
mt butane at the Chinese port of Daxie, in Ningbo, on June 21 after a
voyage from Khor Fakkan in the UAE, according to Platts ship tracking
tool cFlow. This followed a ship-to-ship transfer of the cargo in the
Persian Gulf, trade and shipping sources said. The ship is currently heading
to Fujairah in the Persian Gulf in an unladen state. 'We heard it's sold
by PCC via a Middle Eastern company, hence it can only be taken by China
and not South Korea,' a market source said, referring to Iran's
Petrochemical Commercial Co." http://t.uani.com/152eceK
Korea Economic
Daily: "Korea's automotive parts makers such as
Hyundai Wia are in danger of losing the money from selling auto parts to
Iran. As the United States government extended the sanctions on the
pariah nation to be in effect on July 1, it has also banned financial
transactions such as payments for bills payable. To make matters worse,
most Korean banks have stopped releasing the money wired by Iranian
importers even before the sanctions go into effect. According to the
Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy and auto parts industry sources
on June 26, as many as 1,300 auto parts suppliers will be affected by the
newly expanded sanctions. 'Executive Order 13645' issued by the U.S.
government on June 3 imposes sanctions on any person that engages in
significant transactions relating to the sale of significant goods or
services for use by Iran's automotive sector, including goods used in the
manufacture or assembly of trucks, cars, motorcycles and other vehicles
in Iran." http://t.uani.com/18kqVMU
Syrian Civil
War
FT:
"Iran, Russia and China are propping up Syria's war-ravaged economy,
with President Bashar al-Assad's regime doing all its business in rials,
roubles and renminbi as it seeks to beat western sanctions, according to
the country's senior economics minister. Syria's three main allies are
supporting international financial transactions, delivering $500m a month
in oil and extending credit lines, Kadri Jamil, deputy prime minister for
the economy, said in an interview with the Financial Times. He added that
its allies would also soon help with a 'counter-offensive' against what
he called a foreign plot to sink the Syrian pound... 'It's not that bad
to have behind you the Russians, the Chinese and Iranians,' Mr Jamil told
the FT. 'Those three countries are helping us politically, militarily -
and also economically.'" http://t.uani.com/18krBSB
Opinion &
Analysis
Vance Serchuk in
WashPost: "Over the past two years, Syria's descent
into civil war has provoked alarm and horror in Washington. While
officials have argued over the extent to which the United States can and
should intervene, everyone agrees that the conflict poses a humanitarian
catastrophe and a threat to U.S. interests across the Middle East,
including to the stability of allies, the struggle against Islamist
extremism and the effort to keep weapons of mass destruction out of
terrorist hands. Lately, however, another argument has crept into the
debate: the idea that, while unquestionably tragic, Syria's slow-motion
unraveling might not be an unmitigated calamity for the United States.
Rather, it could carry a Machiavellian upside by embroiling Iran, our
foremost enemy in the region, in a costly, protracted struggle with
al-Qaeda. Syria, the theory holds, could be for Iran what the Iraq war
was for the United States. For the Obama administration, under fire for
its handling of the crisis, this could be an appealing notion - and a
convenient rationalization for not attempting more decisive intervention
that might stop the spiral of violence. But there's good reason - beyond
its ugly moral calculus - that this argument is mostly whispered on the
margins. Under scrutiny, it withers. For starters, the argument presumes
that the Syrian conflict is bogging down the Iranians, sapping their
strength and distracting them from more vital interests. Unfortunately,
the evidence suggests that as Tehran has been riding to the rescue of
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, it has made disturbing inroads
elsewhere, including Yemen and Iraq. That's because the instability the
Syrian conflict is fueling across the Middle East is largely good for
Iran: Sectarian polarization is driving anxious Shiite populations closer
to Tehran, while refugee flows are weakening key U.S. allies such as
Jordan and Turkey. Iran, meanwhile, is suffering no meaningful blow-back
for its deadly interference in Syria. On the contrary, protracted
bloodshed there fosters regional conditions in which Iranian power is
likely to thrive. Involvement in Syria also hasn't done - and won't
do - anything to set back Iran's strategic trump card: its nuclear
program. In the two years since the uprising against Assad began, Tehran
has made steady progress toward weapons capability. It has expanded its
stockpile of enriched uranium, installed next-generation centrifuges and
moved forward with a heavy-water reactor that will provide an alternative
path to a bomb. Nor does Iran's aid to Assad seem likely to exhaust the
Islamic Republic. Although surely an unwelcome burden at a time when the
regime is battling economic sanctions, Tehran's approach to the conflict
has not been an Iraq-style commitment of hundreds of thousands of ground
troops. Rather, it's pursuing a 'light footprint' more akin to the Obama
administration's preferred approach to the war against terrorism by
relying on a small number of its version of special-operations forces,
the Quds Force, who are bolstering local proxies." http://t.uani.com/13dnYvw
Michael Knights in
WINEP: "As the war in Syria drags on, external
actors may play an increasingly important role in tipping the balance
through material support and sponsorship of individual armed units. One
of the most significant international brigades currently fighting on the
Assad regime's side is the Damascus-based Liwa Abu Fadl al-Abbas (LAFA),
a collection of predominantly Iraqi Shiite fighters organized and
supported by the Qods Force, an elite branch of Iran's Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Though relatively small in size, LAFA
could have a strategic impact on the war's course. More broadly, its
expansion marks a potentially dangerous turn for the region, giving
Tehran a transnational Shiite militant legion that it could use to
bolster its allies outside Syria. According to Phillip Smyth, an
independent expert on LAFA's operations, the number of Iraqi Shiite
militants in Syria fluctuates between 800 and 2,000. These fighters are
drawn almost exclusively from three Iraqi groups. The main contributor is
Asaib Ahl al-Haqq (AAH), a 2,000-3,000-strong militant group that
splintered from Muqtada al-Sadr's movement in 2006 with support from the
IRGC Qods Force and Lebanese Hezbollah. The second is Kataib Hezbollah
(KH), an elite 400-man cadre of experienced Iraqi Shiite fighters
reporting directly to the IRGC Qods Force leadership. The third is Kataib
Sayyid al-Shuhada (KSS), a 200-man force led by Abu Mustafa al-Sheibani
(a.k.a. Hamid al-Sheibani), an Iraqi Shiite who has worked under the Qods
Force since the late 1980s. Reports also indicate the presence of Iraqi
Shiites from the Badr Organization and Muqtada al-Sadr's Liwa al-Youm
al-Mawud (Promised Day Brigades). Regardless of its exact composition,
LAFA appears to have soaked up a large proportion of the hardened,
Iranian-supported militant cadres that harassed the U.S. military in
Iraq. Indeed, Iran has played a key role in the formation and sustainment
of Iraqi volunteer groups active in Syria. Since fall 2011 -- about the
time that Shiite insurgents in Iraq began to scale down their attacks on
the dwindling numbers of U.S. forces in that country -- AAH and KH have
apparently been streaming fighters to Iran and Lebanon to be retrained
for intervention in Syria. Specifically, they have been taught how to
move from the insurgent tactics used in Iraq (e.g., roadside bombs,
hit-and-run rocket attacks, assassinations) to the urban street-fighting
and conventional military skills required for regime security operations
in Syria -- skills that could also be used in Lebanon or even Iran if
needed." http://t.uani.com/15MRBzR
Ilan Berman in USA
Today: "History, it is said, doesn't repeat itself,
but occasionally it does rhyme. So it is with Western policy toward Iran,
which is on the verge of returning to the costly rhythm of the past. To
understand why, it's necessary to recall the summer of 1997. That was
when a relatively obscure, soft-line cleric named Mohammad Khatami
unexpectedly emerged as the front-runner for the Iranian presidency.
Khatami's subsequent victory electrified policymakers and the mainstream
news media in Washington and European capitals, all of whom were eager
for some sort of détente with Tehran after nearly two decades of
unremitting hostility. Khatami, in turn, fanned those desires by calling
for a 'dialogue of civilizations' with the West. This enthusiasm,
however, turned out to be misplaced. At home, Khatami, despite campaign
rhetoric about the need for social reform, presided over a worsening
human rights situation, culminating in the regime's infamous July 1999
suppression of protests at Tehran University, an incident that left at
least four dead and hundreds injured. As for the civilizational dialogue
envisioned by Khatami, it turned out to have less to do with genuine
reconciliation with the U.S. and Europe than with an effort to lessen
Tehran's deepening diplomatic isolation. Western outreach predictably
fizzled, despite repeated overtures on the part of the Clinton
administration and various European governments. Fast-forward 16 years,
and the situation is eerily similar. The June 14 election of Hasan
Rowhani, a purported 'moderate,' to the Iranian presidency has reignited
hopes in many quarters that some sort of negotiated settlement with
Tehran might be within reach. Rowhani has deftly played upon those hopes,
offering his own, updated version of Khatami's dialogue of civilizations
in calling for 'constructive interaction' with the West on a range of
issues. The devil, however, is in the details. Already, Rowhani has made
plain that the Iranian regime won't budge on the two matters preoccupying
Western policymakers the most: Iran's nuclear program, and its support
for the regime of Bashar Assad in Syria. In his first news conference as
president-elect, Rowhani ruled out a cessation of Iran's uranium
enrichment activities and made clear that the Iranian government will
continue to try and keep Assad in power with both diplomacy and
materiel." http://t.uani.com/17oEbx1
Naghmeh Abedini in
Fox News: "I would have never imagined that I would
spend my ninth wedding anniversary - coming up on June 30th - alone, with
my husband in captivity in Iran for his faith. Nor could I have imagined
that when Saeed and I said our vows for better or worse, just how those
vows would be tested as I waited and prayed for my husband's return to
our family one year later. On June 22, 2012, as I had so many times
before, I kissed my husband goodbye in the early hours of the morning for
what was intended to be a short trip to Iran to obtain the final approval
from the Iranian government on a non-sectarian orphanage. While our family
was hopeful this trip would mark the opening of the doors to the orphans
we had longed to make a part of our family, we were also excited for
Saeed's prompt return so we could get started on our summer plans. We had
dreamed of a secure future in which our family would take the
long-awaited trip to Disneyland Saeed had promised our son Jacob for his
fifth birthday. But two days before his hopeful return, the picture of
our family's future dramatically changed. On July 28, 2012, Revolutionary
Guards forced my husband off of a bus in Iran and put him under house
arrest. Suddenly, I was forced to trade certainty for uncertainty. My
ideas and conceptions of the future were stripped of their relevance and
value, and plans that I had no reason to change were forcefully
overturned. What would the future look like now? For the last year, I
have been traveling into a future that I once thought would follow some
semblance of normalcy. Life was now anything but normal. The future
became even more uncertain when, on September 26, 2012, my husband was
forcibly taken to Evin prison - a place with memories that haunt our
family. You see, when I was a young girl, my 18-year-old uncle was
executed without warning in Evin prison because his political views
differed from the new radical Regime. Our family knows all too well the
uncertainty of Evin." http://t.uani.com/11NqvLf
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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