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Top Stories
Reuters:
"Iran's oil exports have picked up modestly in January for the third
consecutive month, according to sources who track tanker movements,
adding to signs that the easing of sanctions pressure on Tehran is
helping its oil exports to recover. The increase in shipments is around
50,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to one tracker company, which
would take Iranian exports to around 1.2 million bpd for January and add
about $150 million a month to Tehran's depleted oil revenues. The small
rise is unlikely to be a direct consequence of the easing of sanctions,
which only took effect on Monday, and shippers say they are still waiting
to finalise the paperwork now insurance restrictions on vessels carrying
Iranian crude have been eased. But the interim deal, which was agreed
back in November in return for curbs on Iran's nuclear programme, has
improved sentiment and reduced risk for buyers, giving Iranian exports a
much-needed boost in the months since... A second tracking source
familiar with Iran's shipments, who estimated an increase of 60,000 bpd
in January, said he had seen a pick-up 'especially in India'. 'China's
purchases remain firm, with Turkish imports at around 105,000 barrels per
day. Syria is still picking up modest cargoes,' the source said... The
International Energy Agency said in its monthly report on Tuesday that
Iranian exports rose in December by 50,000 bpd to 1.15 million bpd, and
could increase further now shipments are easier to insure. 'The
relaxation in tanker insurance provisions in the current sanctions regime
may lead to small increases in Iranian crude exports to existing
customers in the short term,' said the IEA, which advises industrialised
countries on oil policy." http://t.uani.com/1aIULLr
Reuters:
"Reformists who supported the election of Iranian President Hassan
Rouhani last year fear his focus on improving relations with the West
will prevent him from pushing for greater political and cultural freedoms
at home... Some say that by securing Khamenei's consent to the nuclear deal,
Rouhani has depleted his political capital with the man who has the final
say on all state matters, leaving nothing for domestic reforms. 'It is a
tactical flexibility. Khamenei has given Rouhani a free hand only on the
nuclear issue, but not beyond that,' said a former senior official on
condition of anonymity. 'Criticism of the deal by hardliners was part of
Khamenei's strategy, aimed at reminding Rouhani who was the boss and that
he needed Khamenei's support to overcome the resistance.' Khamenei has been
adept at ensuring that no group, even the conservatives, gains enough
power to challenge his authority, so Rouhani's diplomatic triumph is
likely to put him on a shorter leash on internal reforms and improvements
in human rights. These are 'two fields in which nothing has changed', one
gloomy pro-reform politician said... Paradoxically, engagement with the
international community, which will improve Iranian people's lives, is
likely to cement the hardliners' grip on power." http://t.uani.com/1c2ykls
The Hill:
"Two House panels will examine the details of the Obama
administration's nuclear deal with Iran next week amid pressure from
Congress to slap new sanctions on the country. The Middle East and
nonproliferation panels of the House Foreign Affairs Committee will hold
a joint hearing on Tuesday, just hours before President Obama's State of
the Union address. The hearing aims to probe the Nov. 24 agreement
freezing Iran's nuclear program, which only went into effect Monday
following disagreements between Iran and the international community on
how it should be enforced. 'As today marks the beginning of
implementation of the Iran nuclear deal, it is vital for us to scrutinize
this agreement that fails to meet basic foreign policy objectives,'
Middle East panel spokeswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.) said in a
statement... Witnesses include Mark Wallace, a former ambassador to the
UN under President George W. Bush who now heads the pro-sanctions United
Against Nuclear Iran. The group has clashed with the White House over its
effort to paint pro-sanctions lawmakers as encouraging a war with
Iran." http://t.uani.com/1aIWArJ
Nuclear Program & Negotiations
AP:
"The U.N. decision to revoke Iran's invitation to this week's Syrian
peace talks almost as quickly as it came was a reminder that the path to
reconciliation between Tehran and the West is hardly a smooth one.
Progress on the issue of Iran's nuclear program is no guarantee of an
easing of tensions in the multiple disputes between the two sides. Iran
took a major step in defrosting relations with the West over its nuclear
program by halting high-level uranium enrichment Monday as part of a
landmark interim deal that wins it an easing of some economic sanctions.
But the very same day on the Syria front, Tehran showed it was sticking
by its key ally, Syrian President Bashar Assad, by refusing to endorse
the premise of the peace talks - a call for the creation of a
transitional Syrian government. The flap over the invitation to the
talks, which begin Wednesday in the Swiss resort town of Montreux, left
both sides clearly stung. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif
said the revoking of the invitation by U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon, only a day
after he issued it, was 'behavior below his dignity,' accusing him of
bending to pressure from 'the U.S. and some groups whose hands were
smeared with the blood of the Syrian people.' Ban's office, in turn,
suggested the U.N. chief had been misled by Tehran... The events Monday
highlighted the multiple facets of the disputes between Iran and the West
- and how a step forward in one doesn't rule a step back in another. The
nuclear program is one major dispute, with the U.S. and its allies
fearing that Tehran aims to build nuclear weapons and Iran insisting its
program is for peaceful purposes. But it's not the only one. The United
States sees Iran as a sponsor of terrorism for its backing of militant
groups like Lebanon's Hezbollah, and it and its Arab allies have been
pushing back against Tehran's moves to spread its influence in the Middle
East - particularly through its alliance with Assad." http://t.uani.com/1fZXhkR
LAT:
"While much of the world watched with cautious optimism as an
interim deal designed to limit Iran's enrichment of uranium went into
effect Monday, the tone in Israel was one of resigned skepticism.
Politicians took to the airwaves to highlight the deal's flaws and a
newspaper released a poll that found 1 in 5 Israelis doesn't believe
President Obama will prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear arms. Speaking
at the parliament, or Knesset, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
criticized the agreement reached in November between Iran and six world
powers for not exacting enough concessions. The deal, he said, keeps
Iran's nuclear train 'on the tracks' by allowing low-grade enrichment to
continue. A final accord, which under the November agreement is to be
negotiated over the next six months, must go much farther, he warned...
Emily Landau, director of the Arms Control and Regional Security Project
at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said the
Iranian threat cannot be underestimated. She pointed to a statement from
Iran's top nuclear negotiator that the country's reduced capabilities
under the agreement could be quickly reversed. 'You have take those words
seriously because this is a true indication of how Iran is viewing this,'
she said." http://t.uani.com/LTyAcP
AFP:
"Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that Iran's
atomic drive 'will be stopped', a day after an interim agreement bringing
sanctions relief for Tehran took effect... 'The interim agreement which
went into force today does not prevent Iran from realising its intention
to develop nuclear weapons,' he told the Israeli parliament... 'A nuclear
armed Iran would not just endanger Israel -- it would threaten the peace
and security of our region,' Netanyahu said on Tuesday. 'It would give
Iran's terrorist proxies a nuclear umbrella. It would launch a
multilateral nuclear arms race in the Middle East, it could turn the
Middle East into a nuclear tinderbox,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1aKZGse
Military
Matters
Reuters:
"A former engineer for defense contractors has been indicted on
charges that he tried to send Iran secret details on the U.S. Air Force's
F-35 joint strike fighter program, the office of the U.S. Attorney for
Connecticut said on Tuesday. The accused man, Mozaffar Khazaee, a dual
U.S. and Iranian citizen, was arrested on January 9 at Newark Liberty
International Airport in New Jersey, after he flew from Indianapolis to
Newark, with Tehran as his final destination, prosecutors said. Khazaee,
who moved recently from Connecticut to Indianapolis, was charged with two
counts of transporting, transmitting and transferring in interstate
commerce goods obtained by theft, conversion or fraud, according to the
indictment. He faces a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison." http://t.uani.com/1c2z2io
Sanctions
Relief
Free Beacon:
"The White House has been exploring ways to circumvent Congress and
unilaterally lift sanctions on Iran once a final nuclear agreement is
reached, according to sources with knowledge of White House conversations
and congressional insiders familiar with its strategy... While many in
Congress insist that only the legislative branch can legally repeal
sanctions, senior White House officials have been examining strategies to
skirt Congress, according to those familiar with internal conversations.
Sen. Mark Kirk (R., Ill.), who is leading the charge on new sanctions
legislation, said that it is unacceptable for the White House to try to
bypass Congress on such a critical global issue. 'The American people
must get a say in any final nuclear agreement with Iran to ensure the
mullahs never get the bomb,' Kirk told the Washington Free Beacon. 'The
administration cannot just ignore U.S. law and lift sanctions
unilaterally.' ... Obama could also use executive waivers to 'bypass
restrictions imposed by the law,' according to a report by Patrick
Clawson, director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East
Policy (WINEP). The president has a lot of leverage when it comes to
sanctions and could effectively 'turn a blind eye' to Iranian
infractions." http://t.uani.com/1eSziyW
Bloomberg:
"Iran is postponing by about three months a conference at which it
plans to introduce new contract terms to international energy companies,
an adviser to Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said. The London event,
originally scheduled for early April, will be held instead in late June
or early July, Mehdi Hosseini, the head of an Oil Ministry committee that
reviews contracts, said today in a phone interview from Tehran. 'We're
seeking good results, and it's preferable to have more time to prepare,'
he said. 'There is a lot we want to do, and we had planned very
optimistically.' Iran's existing buy-back contracts require companies to
pay for oil and natural gas exploration and recover their investment from
any production at a pre-arranged rate of return. Hosseini said in
November that the nation, hampered by economic sanctions over its nuclear
program, was working on new terms that conform more closely with
international norms to attract foreign partners to help develop energy resources."
http://t.uani.com/1mFRB05
FT:
"The many daily flights between Dubai and Tehran are always busy.
But these days the Iranians heading home after business and shopping
trips are being joined by rising numbers of briefcase-toting western and
Asian passengers. They are part of a new wave of foreign investors eager
to investigate business opportunities in post-sanctions Iran, a
potentially lucrative trade that Dubai, the commercial hub of the United
Arab Emirates, is eager to capitalise on. Last week, Dubai's ruler Sheikh
Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum called for sanctions to be lifted on the
Islamic republic. 'I think we need to give Iran space, Iran is our
neighbour and we don't want any problem,' he told the BBC in an
interview. 'If they agree peace with the Americans and the Americans lift
sanctions, then everyone will benefit.' It is a stance that puts him at
odds with most Sunni Gulf leaders. While the UAE, which includes Dubai,
has long been one of the most hawkish voices on Iran, Dubai, built on trade
with the Islamic republic and home to a large Iranian community, is eager
to renew these business links, analysts say." http://t.uani.com/LTGW41
Reuters:
"Iranian President Hasan Rouhani will address a panel of top global
oil executives on Thursday as the Islamic Republic steps up efforts to
win back investments from oil companies as part of its rapprochement with
the West. Rouhani will give a short speech to chief executives from oil
majors such as Eni, BP, Total and Shell, according to several executives
who meet on the sidelines of the annual World Economic Forum in the Swiss
Alpine resort of Davos. Heads of U.S. companies such as Exxon Mobil could
also attend, the executives said. Tehran wants Western oil companies to
revive its giant ageing oilfields and develop new oil and gas fields once
sanctions are lifted and is improving its oil investment contract in
order to lure them in." http://t.uani.com/1in5tfa
Bloomberg:
"Giuseppe Recchi, chairman of Italy's biggest energy company Eni SpA
(ENI), said he'd be interested in seeing Iran open up to investment
following years of sanctions. Recchi and Amec Plc (AMEC) Chief
Executive Officer Samir Brikho discussed Iran, holder of the world's
fourth-largest proven oil reserves, in a Bloomberg Television interview
today in Davos, Switzerland. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is heading
to Davos to meet world political and business leaders, the first leader
from the country to visit the Swiss ski resort for the World Economic
Forum... Rouhani is due to address the forum tomorrow during a session
called 'Iran in the World.'" http://t.uani.com/1jzfmEk
Reuters:
"Western sanctions against Iran meant 64,500 lost vehicle sales and
led Renault to a 7.4 percent decline in its Asia-Pacific sales region,
which includes India and South Korea. A deal late last year to ease
sanctions temporarily has not yet allowed the carmaker to resume
production or sales there, Stoll said. 'We are looking at how to resume
the supply of parts ... as and when financial transactions with Iran are
unblocked,' the Renault sales chief added." http://t.uani.com/1eStHZk
Syria Conflict
Reuters:
"A Syrian military police photographer has supplied 'clear evidence'
showing the systematic torture and killing of about 11,000 detainees in
circumstances that evoked Nazi death camps, former war crimes prosecutors
said. Syrian officials could face war crimes charges as a result of the
evidence provided by the photographer, who has defected, the three
prosecutors said. One of the prosecutors said the evidence documented
'industrial scale killing' that was reminiscent of the World War II
concentration camps of Belsen and Auschwitz... 55,000 images provided by
the photographer, who fled Syria after passing the pictures to Assad's
opponents, show emaciated and mutilated corpses. Bearing signs of
torture, some of the corpses had no eyes. Others showed signs of
strangulation or electrocution. 'There is clear evidence, capable of
being believed by a tribunal of fact in a court of law, of systematic
torture and killing of detained persons by the agents of the Syrian
government,' the three prosecutors said in the 31-page report." http://t.uani.com/1f8PMmZ
Reuters:
"Talks in Switzerland between Syria's government and its enemies to
end the country's three years of civil war are unlikely to be successful,
Iranian President Hasan Rouhani said on Wednesday, the official IRNA news
agency reported. 'Because of the lack of influential players in the
meeting, I doubt about the Geneva 2 meeting's success in fighting against
terrorism ... and its ability to resolve the Syria crisis,' Rouhani said.
'The Geneva 2 meeting has already failed without it even being
started.'" http://t.uani.com/KFxiRQ
WSJ:
"U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry kicked off a long-awaited
international conference aimed at ending the Syrian civil war by
demanding the removal of President Bashar al-Assad and his family from
power. Mr. Kerry's comments Wednesday were immediately challenged by
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem, who accused the U.S. and its
Middle East allies, particularly Turkey and Saudi Arabia, of supporting
terrorist groups who he alleged are seeking to destabilize the Damascus
regime... 'Mutual consent, which is what has brought us here, for a
transitional government means that that government cannot be formed with
someone that is objected to by one side or the other. That means that
Bashar Assad will not be part of that transition government,' Mr. Kerry
said at the opening of the international conference in Montreux. 'There
is no way...that the man who led the brutal response to his own people
could regain the legitimacy to govern.'" http://t.uani.com/1hj2yAI
NYT:
"Over the weekend Ban Ki-moon, the United Nations secretary general,
with a reputation for being risk averse, took a significant risk. He
choreographed a precise diplomatic sequence on Syria that relied on
others to perform their roles equally precisely. The choreography did not
go as planned, and Mr. Ban stumbled under the spotlight. The sequence,
according to interviews with diplomats, went like this: He would announce
he was inviting Iran to join an international peace conference on Syria.
Iran would accept, seconding what Mr. Ban had announced. At no point
would it be said by either party that there were conditions for Iran's
participation - a sticking point for months - though Mr. Ban would make
it clear that Iran welcomed the mandate for the conference: to discuss
the establishment of a transitional government. Secretary of State John
Kerry was skeptical, and he told Mr. Ban as much hours before Mr. Ban
went public. Officials in the State Department said they emphasized all
along that they expected Iran to commit publicly to the ground rules,
known as the Geneva Communiqué, ideally before the invitation. A senior
official at the United Nations, who spoke on condition of anonymity
because of protocol surrounding diplomatic conversations, said there were
20 to 30 calls between Mr. Ban's office and American officials in the 72
hours leading up to the announcement of the Iran invitation on Sunday
night. Mr. Ban was convinced he could make it work, the official said.
But in diplomacy, there are no dress rehearsals. Mr. Ban's choreography
went awry, forcing him into a corner." http://t.uani.com/1in5boO
AFP:
"The United Nations on Tuesday strongly defended Iran's exclusion
from Syria peace talks after criticism from Russia and the Tehran
government. Iran failed to come up with a promised written statement on
the Syria conflict and so UN leader Ban Ki-moon was forced to act, UN deputy
spokesman Farhan Haq said. Haq also said Ban was anxious that countries
attending the talks, which start in Montreux, Switzerland, on Wednesday,
were negotiating 'in good faith.' Ban rescinded an invitation to Iran on
Monday just 24 hours after announcing that the ally of President Bashar
al-Assad would be at the talks... 'There was an oral understanding that
the secretary general had been led to believe would be followed by an
actual written understanding,' Haq told reporters to explain the
invitation to Iran. 'In fact the opposite is what happened, that Iran
stated the same positions that it had held previously. And that is why he
expressed his disappointment at Iran's decision and took his decision to
disinvite them,' the spokesman added. Ban was in contact with the United
States and other key parties during the talks, Haq added." http://t.uani.com/1in46NM
NYT:
"After Iran was invited to and then disinvited from a coming peace
conference on Syria within the span of 24 hours, Iranian officials and
commentators said on Tuesday that it was the attendees who would be
missing out. The United Nations secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, had
issued the invitation to the meeting, scheduled to begin Wednesday in
Geneva, after a phone call from Iran's foreign minister, Mohammad Javad
Zarif, on Sunday. The semiofficial Fars news agency dismissed it as 'a
ridiculous comedy play written by Western scenarists,' and a member of
Parliament called it 'a plot' to trick Tehran into dropping its support
for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria." http://t.uani.com/1dP0Jgt
Human Rights
ICHRI:
"The Islamic Republic of Iran and China have reportedly reached an
agreement to begin cooperating on Internet operations, aiming to
implement Iran's 'National Information Network,' according to a report on
the website of Iran's Ministry of Communications and Information
Technology. Nasrollah Jahangard, head of Iran's Information Technology
Organization, is quoted in the report saying that the agreements were
reached in negotiations with the Deputy for Internet Information, of the
Information Council... The Iranian officials have tried for years to
implement their own 'National Internet Network' in order to more
comprehensively monitor the Internet activities of Iranian users, but
despite the widespread filtering of websites, serious reduction of
Internet access speed, hacking of opposition news websites, and other
measures aiming to restrict or block access to Internet, they have not
been able to completely control the presence and activities of Iranian
users on social networks. China, however, has had much more success in
Internet control." http://t.uani.com/1dvzba1
HRW:
"Iranians are facing serious rights abuses, despite President Hassan
Rouhani's numerous promises to respect people's rights following his June
14, 2013, electoral victory, Human Rights Watch said today in its World
Report 2014. Authorities have released some prominent political prisoners
but executions continued at high rates. Officials continued to detain
many civil society activists and leading opposition figures, including
the 2009 presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi;
and the government denied entry to the United Nations special rapporteur
on human rights in Iran. 'Pushing for a moratorium on the death penalty
should be one of President Rouhani's top reform priorities,' said Sarah
Leah Whitson, Middle East director at Human Rights Watch. 'President
Rouhani should also speak out publicly against serious violations by
security and intelligence forces, and act on campaign promises to ease
controls on freedom of information, including heavy censorship.'" http://t.uani.com/1mFUVZ0
RFE/RL:
"The U.S. State Department's Persian-language spokesman Alan Eyre
has sent condolences via Facebook over the death of one of the sisters of
opposition leader Mehdi Karrubi. In a message in Persian posted with a
picture of Karrubi, Eyre writes that it was with 'with deepest regret'
that he found out about the death of Fatemeh Karrubi, the sister of the
former Iranian parliament speaker. The Facebook message is a small
gesture by the State Department toward Iran's opposition movement, which
has been under intense pressure from the country's leaders. Iranian
authorities have been holding Karrubi under house arrest with reportedly
almost no contact with the outside world in an apparent effort to silence
him and make the public and his supporters forget him." http://t.uani.com/1edA0oR
Domestic
Politics
Al-Monitor:
"On Jan. 7, 1936, Iran's then-ruler Reza Shah Pahlavi unveiled women
by force as part of his clash with the clergy. On the anniversary of this
significant event, influential conservative clergyman Ayatollah Safi
Golpayegani issued a lengthy statement in the form of a news release
titled 'Warning Iranian Women,' in which he expressed disappointment in
women who opt to dress more fashionably and revealingly. He referred to
the 'hip' version of Iranian women's wear as 'covering skin and
concealing private parts as it should, but [falling] short of true
coverage ... and on the verge of being defined as haram.' He went on to
recommend the chador as the best choice of coverage, repeating what many
Iranian officials have said over the years. His mindset is concluded in
the famous phrase describing the veil: 'Chador, the superior hijab.'"
http://t.uani.com/1hj0KI0
Opinion &
Analysis
WSJ Europe
Editorial: "Sanctions on Iran are easing only a
very little bit. That is the Obama Administration's soothing refrain to
Congress and nervous U.S. allies from Riyadh to Jerusalem regarding the
interim nuclear agreement with Iran. The concessions to Tehran, the White
House says, are 'limited, temporary, targeted, and reversible.' The
mullahs beg to differ-and so do the growing number of European
governments and businesses moving to cash in on the opening created by
the interim agreement. In the two months since the accord was struck in
Geneva, Tehran's trading partners have lifted sanctions, sent
delegations, agreed to export deals and signaled their readiness to
expand ties across nearly every major industry. On Jan. 20, the European
Union removed several sanctions on Tehran, including Brussels's crucial
ban on insuring shipments of Iranian oil. The restriction, in effect
since July 2012, had significantly curbed Iranian crude exports. Now the
companies of the London-based insurance consortium International Group of
P&I Clubs, which together underwrite most of the world's merchant
vessels, will be permitted to reinsure cargos of Iranian oil, effective
immediately. European officials and trade delegations have also been
making pilgrimages to Tehran since the Geneva agreement, with more to
follow. Italy's foreign minister Emma Bonino visited in December.
Executives from energy giants Shell (the Netherlands), Eni (Italy) and
OMV (Austria), among others, met Iran's oil minister in Vienna in
December. The Netherlands's ambassador to Tehran on Thursday tweeted a
photograph from a 'speeddate' session 'to meet [Dutch] business
interested in Iran.' And some of France's top companies-including Airbus,
Peugeot Citroën, Societe Generale and BNP Paribas-are planning to visit
Tehran in early February. Some deals have already been consummated.
Belgium's Tessenderlo Group last week agreed to sell Iran 60,000 tons of
fertilizer in a deal worth almost 33 million euros. In other cases, the
easing of sanctions has lowered the costs of prior trade arrangements.
'We're already seeing our operation costs decline and we hope money
transfers will be easier,' an official at Turkish chemical manufacturer
Gubretas told the Journal in November. Gubretas's stock price increased
by 7.3% shortly after the Geneva agreement was reached. All of these
people are anticipating a new Iranian gold rush, and they clearly don't
believe the White House denials." http://t.uani.com/1aKYlBB
Holman Jenkins in
WSJ: "The Reuters news service issued in November
what it called its 'fullest account yet' of the holdings of Iran's
supreme leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Though it would be impolitic
for the supreme leader to emulate the opulence of the late shah of Iran,
the allegedly plain-living cleric has assembled a business empire, from
apartments and ostrich farming to telecommunications and pharmaceuticals,
that Reuters values at $95 billion, or about 30 times the shah's wealth
after inflation. As Reuters details, the Ayatollah's empire has its
origins in confiscated property. First it was the property of the shah
and other class enemies, then the property of many who fled. Nowadays
it's the property of anybody not sufficiently plugged-in to the regime to
be protected. Members of the minority Baha'i faith have been particular
victims. As recently as May, the ayatollah's minions auctioned nearly 300
properties with a value of at least $88 million... Find this
money-grubbing hard to reconcile with the image of a regime seeking
martyrdom in a nuclear war with Israel? Then how about a regime craving
nuclear weapons as a way to guarantee its own privileges? How about a
regime that sees Western sanctions as an opportunity to bring more of the
Iranian economy under its control? How about a regime whose members are
getting rich off its nuclear program, which they will fiercely defend?
After all, what better excuse for diverting even more of the country's
resources into their own hands? And, let's face it, the nuclear pursuit
is paying off as the West switches from sanctions to paying protection
money to Iran's rulers. So put away any idea that its gross corruption
means the Tehran regime can be bribed into surrendering its nukes and
virulent anti-Americanism. Another fantasy is that deterrence is somehow
an 'option.' Deterrence is a necessity. Deterrence is not a thing to be
chosen or unchosen. Deterrence is the normal relation between states,
which only restrain themselves because of fear of retaliation. The real
problem is that the U.S. has not deterred much lately by its failure to
exact punishment for Iran's killing of American soldiers in Iraq or its
sponsorship of international terrorism as state policy. The biggest
fantasy may be the idea of some delicate dance of pro- and anti-nuclear
forces in the Iranian leadership that the U.S. can exploit. This
hallucination and/or sophistry underlies the Obama administration's
hysterical warning this week that a U.S. Senate bill to toughen sanctions
might cause Iran to quit the nuclear talks. This claim is frankly
ridiculous. If anything, the bill will let the Iranians drive an even
harder bargain with Mr. Obama, who needs a deal." http://t.uani.com/1hiTL1J
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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