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The Syrian
peace process: An exercise in futility
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The international conference that convened this week in the Swiss town
of Montreux in an attempt to find a way toward resolving the war in Syria
is one of the more strange international gatherings of recent years.
The aims of the combatant sides in Syria remain entirely irreconcilable.
Neither the Assad regime nor the rebellion against it is strong enough
to strike a decisive blow against its opponent.
Neither side is sufficiently weak to feel compelled to accept whatever
outcome its enemy wishes to impose on it.
In such a situation, diplomacy becomes reduced to the rituals of
protocol.
Form replaces content. And the purpose of bringing the sides together
becomes unclear.
This conference has all the familiar paraphernalia of an important
diplomatic event. Foreign ministers are gathered. Speeches will be
delivered. An atmosphere of grave seriousness will prevail. But the basis
for substantive progress appears entirely absent.
Conceived over a year ago, the conference is intended to set in motion
the implementation of the 'Geneva Communique' of June 30, 2012. In its key
passage, this document calls for the 'establishment of a transitional governing
body with full executive powers that could include members of the
government and opposition, and should be formed on the basis of mutual
consent.'
The Syrian dictator, whose foreign minister Walid Mouallem is present at
the conference, has made clear that he does not accept this goal if it
means that he should step down.
As regime information minister Omran al-Zoabi expressed it succinctly on
the first day of the conference: 'Assad isn't going.'
Assad himself told Russian MPs at a meeting in Damascus earlier this
month that his departure would not be under discussion at the conference.
"If we had wanted to surrender, we would have surrendered from the
very start. We stand at the guard of our motherland,' the dictator informed
his guests. 'This issue lies beyond the sphere of discussion.'
Assad has made clear that as far as he is concerned, the main subject
that will lie within the sphere of discussion in Geneva will be his 'war on
'terrorism.' His message is that the regime is locked in combat with the
same Sunni jihadi enemies that threaten the west.
From Assad's point of view, such a stance makes perfect sense.
He is in no danger of imminent defeat. The war in Syria has been at a
bloody stalemate for about a year now. The regime controls the capital,
Damascus and a contiguous land area stretching up to the Mediterranean cost
in the west. Assad also still maintains his grip on the main cities of the
country, with the exception of Raqqa in the east (controlled by the
al-Qaeda affiliated ISIS group) and Aleppo, which is divided between the
government and the rebels. Assad's allies, Iran and Russia, appear to still
be standing firmly behind him. He has no incentive for compromise.
As for the rebels, they have similarly solid reasons not to submit.
They control an area of roughly equal size stretching from the border
with Iraq up to the Turkish border in the north west.
Since early January, the opposition-controlled area has been engulfed in
an internal civil war, with the al-Qaeda affiliated ISIS (Islamic State in
Iraq and Syria) resisting attacks from the Saudi-supported fighters of the
Islamic Front. This fighting made possible relatively minor gains by
government forces in the northern Aleppo area.
But the rebels, too, are not facing imminent defeat. They have no
shortage of men willing to engage on their behalf. Assad failed to
capitalize or expand on some modest military successes in the summer. So
they too see no pressing reason to compromise their core demand – that
Bashar Assad cannot form part of any transitional administration.
Rebel controlled areas have borne the brunt of extraordinarily brutal
tactics employed by the regime over the last three years. These have
included the use of chemical weapons against civilian targets, as took
place in eastern Ghouta on August 21, 2013, with the loss of 1429 lives,
according to US figures. A newly released report claims that the regime has
carried out the mass slaughter of 11,000 detainees.
The dictator's uncompromising position led to a very great reluctance on
the part of the opposition to take part in the conference at all. A no-show
by the western financed opposition would have turned the gathering into a
farce. As a result of western threats and pressure, the Syrian National
Coalition eventually agreed to show up.
But this coalition in any case exerts little or no authority over the
overwhelmingly Sunni Islamist fighting groups that are conducting the
actual war in Syria.
They will not be there in Geneva, and will certainly not feel bound by
any commitments made by the external leadership.
The Kurdish PYD, which rules the largely peaceful Kurdish enclave in the
north east of the country, is also not invited.
So there are fundamental disagreements between the two sides attending
the conference. On the rebel side, the most important and influential
factions won't be attending at all. The government side has no intention of
conforming to the conference's key premise (Assad's resignation and his
replacement by a transitional authority.) The opposition representatives
have no intention of compromising on this demand.
The chances of such a gathering leading to any type of diplomatic
breakthrough are surely close to zero.
What then is the point of all this?
The Geneva II conference is happening, it appears, for the not
particularly edifying reason that the west doesn't want to entirely ignore
Syria, and can't quite think of anything else to do.
The Geneva II conference's main contribution to the diplomacy of the
region is thus likely to be to pave the way for the Geneva III conference.
And 'all the way up to Geneva 17, before this thing's finished,' as one
Syrian observer put it. In Syria itself, meanwhile, the bloodletting looks
set to continue.
Jonathan Spyer is a
senior research fellow at the Global
Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, and a fellow
at the Middle East Forum.
Related
Topics: Syria
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